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A study on the prediction of korean NPL market return (한국 NPL시장 수익률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeon Su;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.

A Study on Snack Intake Behavior by the Stress Level of High School Students in Jeonnam Area (전남지역 고등학생의 스트레스 수준에 따른 간식 섭취 행태 연구)

  • Park, Hye Sook;Jung, Lan Hee
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.141-164
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the stress perception, dietary habits, lifestyle and snack intake behaviors of students to help dietary education of high school students in Jeonnam area. The data were collected from high school students in Jeonnam area and 503 questionnaires were used for analysis. The main results of this study are as follows. First, the mean scores of high school students' perception of stress were 2.92 points for male students and 3.07 points for female students, and female students were statistically significantly higher than male students(p<.01). Stress perceptions showed significant differences in school stress(p<.001) and family stress(p<.05) according to gender, and female students gained more stressed than male students. Second, the dietary habits and lifestyle characteristics of high school students by gender showed significant difference between male students and female students at the one meal time(p<.001), the amount of meal(p<.05), the tendency of eating habits(p<.001), the salty taste of food(p<.05), the exercise frequency per week(p<.001) and the exercise time per day(p<.001), respectively. One meal time was shorter for male students than for female students, and the amount of meals was more suitable amount for female students than male students. Also, male students ate more regularly than female students and female students preferred more stimulating foods than male students. Male students ate slightly bland salty taste, and female students ate standard salty taste. The exercise frequency per week and the exercise time per day were more in male students than in female students. Third, the snack intake characteristics of high school students by gender showed significantly different between male students and female students at the cost of snack per day(p<.01), the time to eat snacks(p<.01) and the favorite snacks(p<.001), respectively. The cost of snack per day was higher for female students than for male students in case of less than 4,000 won. The time for eating snack showed that 'Irregularly' was high for male students and 'In the evening after lunch' was high for female students. The favorite snacks were cookies, candies and chocolates for male and female students. Forth, the dietary habits and lifestyle characteristics of high school students by stress level showed significantly different at the frequency of daily meals(p<.05), the tendency of eating habits(p<.01) and the salty taste of food(p<.05), respectively. The frequency of daily meals was more than four times in case of the 'High stress' and 'Low stress' groups. The tendency of eating habit was low in regular meal rate in 'High stress' group. Fifth, the snack intake characteristics of high school students by stress level showed significantly different in the frequency of snacks per day(p<.05) and the favorite taste of snacks(p<.05). In case of the frequency of daily snack intake, 'More than 4 times' was highest in 'High stress' group and 'Low stress' group. The favorite taste of snacks showed that the spicy taste was highest in the 'High stress' group and the 'Low stress' group.

Export Control System based on Case Based Reasoning: Design and Evaluation (사례 기반 지능형 수출통제 시스템 : 설계와 평가)

  • Hong, Woneui;Kim, Uihyun;Cho, Sinhee;Kim, Sansung;Yi, Mun Yong;Shin, Donghoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.109-131
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    • 2014
  • As the demand of nuclear power plant equipment is continuously growing worldwide, the importance of handling nuclear strategic materials is also increasing. While the number of cases submitted for the exports of nuclear-power commodity and technology is dramatically increasing, preadjudication (or prescreening to be simple) of strategic materials has been done so far by experts of a long-time experience and extensive field knowledge. However, there is severe shortage of experts in this domain, not to mention that it takes a long time to develop an expert. Because human experts must manually evaluate all the documents submitted for export permission, the current practice of nuclear material export is neither time-efficient nor cost-effective. Toward alleviating the problem of relying on costly human experts only, our research proposes a new system designed to help field experts make their decisions more effectively and efficiently. The proposed system is built upon case-based reasoning, which in essence extracts key features from the existing cases, compares the features with the features of a new case, and derives a solution for the new case by referencing similar cases and their solutions. Our research proposes a framework of case-based reasoning system, designs a case-based reasoning system for the control of nuclear material exports, and evaluates the performance of alternative keyword extraction methods (full automatic, full manual, and semi-automatic). A keyword extraction method is an essential component of the case-based reasoning system as it is used to extract key features of the cases. The full automatic method was conducted using TF-IDF, which is a widely used de facto standard method for representative keyword extraction in text mining. TF (Term Frequency) is based on the frequency count of the term within a document, showing how important the term is within a document while IDF (Inverted Document Frequency) is based on the infrequency of the term within a document set, showing how uniquely the term represents the document. The results show that the semi-automatic approach, which is based on the collaboration of machine and human, is the most effective solution regardless of whether the human is a field expert or a student who majors in nuclear engineering. Moreover, we propose a new approach of computing nuclear document similarity along with a new framework of document analysis. The proposed algorithm of nuclear document similarity considers both document-to-document similarity (${\alpha}$) and document-to-nuclear system similarity (${\beta}$), in order to derive the final score (${\gamma}$) for the decision of whether the presented case is of strategic material or not. The final score (${\gamma}$) represents a document similarity between the past cases and the new case. The score is induced by not only exploiting conventional TF-IDF, but utilizing a nuclear system similarity score, which takes the context of nuclear system domain into account. Finally, the system retrieves top-3 documents stored in the case base that are considered as the most similar cases with regard to the new case, and provides them with the degree of credibility. With this final score and the credibility score, it becomes easier for a user to see which documents in the case base are more worthy of looking up so that the user can make a proper decision with relatively lower cost. The evaluation of the system has been conducted by developing a prototype and testing with field data. The system workflows and outcomes have been verified by the field experts. This research is expected to contribute the growth of knowledge service industry by proposing a new system that can effectively reduce the burden of relying on costly human experts for the export control of nuclear materials and that can be considered as a meaningful example of knowledge service application.

Characteristics That Affect Japanese Consumer Preferences for Chrysanthemum (국화 수출 확대를 위한 일본 소비자의 상품 선호도 분석)

  • Lim, Jin Hee;Seo, Ji Yeon;Shim, Myung Syun
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.640-647
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to provide exportation strategy by surveying on preference of Japanese consumers on cut chrysanthemum exported. The survey was conducted two times by a local survey company in Japan, and the surveys were conducted largely on chrysanthemums for casual flowers and the altar. After departmentalizing Japanese consumers per groups the result were analyzed through conjoint and cluster methods, flower colors and shape were used relatively higher rate for selection criteria of flowers in every group in the case of casual flowers. Group 1 comprised of 60 year-old housewives who reside in a small city with high school diploma and annual income less than 300 million yen, and group 2 of 40 year-old housewives who are small city residents with high school diplomas and annual income of 300 million yen show higher rate of use in flower shape than colors. Another group 3 whose members are 50 year-old housewives, small city residents with high school diplomas and annual income of 600 million yen showed higher rate of use colors than the shape for selection criteria of flowers. The consumption characteristics according to the ages of the consumers showed a pronounced tendency. The 40-50 year-old housewives preferred single flowers packed with other flowers, and the 60 year-old housewives double flowers packed with only chrysanthemums. In flower color, the 50-60 year-old housewives preferred white and yellow flowers, and the 40 year-old housewives pink and yellow flowers. Therefore, there are needs for development strategy of new products considering the consumption characteristics of flower shape and color according to the ages of consumer. After analyzing the chrysanthemums for altar by departmentalization of Japanese consumers, every group showed relative higher rate of use for flower shape for selection criteria of flowers. According to the analysis on the consumption characteristics, group 1 which is comprised of 30-40 year-old housewives who reside in small city with high school diplomas and income less than 300 million yen, and the group 2 of 20 year-old housewives who reside in small city with college diplomas and annual income less than 300 million yen. They are very sensitive to the price of the products while the group 3 of 50 year-old housewives who reside in small city with high school diplomas and annual income less than 300 million yen are insensitive to the price. The 30-50 year-old housewives preferred white and pink flowers, and the 20 year-old housewives yellow and pink flowers. In flower shape, the 50 year-old housewives preferred anemone shape, the 30-40 year-old housewives double shape, and the 20 year-old housewives pompon shapes. Therefore, the white, double flowers for the 30-40 year-old housewives and the yellow, pompon flowers for the 20 year-old housewives are needed to be created at the lowest cost, while the white, anemone flowers are needed to created at higher cost with high quality. In light of these results, it is considered that we should understand the types of purchasing products through consumption characteristics of Japanese consumers. Also we should plan, create market-oriented and consumer-oriented products, and should export them in order to expand more exportation.

A study on the Success Factors and Strategy of Information Technology Investment Based on Intelligent Economic Simulation Modeling (지능형 시뮬레이션 모형을 기반으로 한 정보기술 투자 성과 요인 및 전략 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.35-55
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    • 2013
  • Information technology is a critical resource necessary for any company hoping to support and realize its strategic goals, which contribute to growth promotion and sustainable development. The selection of information technology and its strategic use are imperative for the enhanced performance of every aspect of company management, leading a wide range of companies to have invested continuously in information technology. Despite researchers, managers, and policy makers' keen interest in how information technology contributes to organizational performance, there is uncertainty and debate about the result of information technology investment. In other words, researchers and managers cannot easily identify the independent factors that can impact the investment performance of information technology. This is mainly owing to the fact that many factors, ranging from the internal components of a company, strategies, and external customers, are interconnected with the investment performance of information technology. Using an agent-based simulation technique, this research extracts factors expected to affect investment performance on information technology, simplifies the analyses of their relationship with economic modeling, and examines the performance dependent on changes in the factors. In terms of economic modeling, I expand the model that highlights the way in which product quality moderates the relationship between information technology investments and economic performance (Thatcher and Pingry, 2004) by considering the cost of information technology investment and the demand creation resulting from product quality enhancement. For quality enhancement and its consequences for demand creation, I apply the concept of information quality and decision-maker quality (Raghunathan, 1999). This concept implies that the investment on information technology improves the quality of information, which, in turn, improves decision quality and performance, thus enhancing the level of product or service quality. Additionally, I consider the effect of word of mouth among consumers, which creates new demand for a product or service through the information diffusion effect. This demand creation is analyzed with an agent-based simulation model that is widely used for network analyses. Results show that the investment on information technology enhances the quality of a company's product or service, which indirectly affects the economic performance of that company, particularly with regard to factors such as consumer surplus, company profit, and company productivity. Specifically, when a company makes its initial investment in information technology, the resultant increase in the quality of a company's product or service immediately has a positive effect on consumer surplus, but the investment cost has a negative effect on company productivity and profit. As time goes by, the enhancement of the quality of that company's product or service creates new consumer demand through the information diffusion effect. Finally, the new demand positively affects the company's profit and productivity. In terms of the investment strategy for information technology, this study's results also reveal that the selection of information technology needs to be based on analysis of service and the network effect of customers, and demonstrate that information technology implementation should fit into the company's business strategy. Specifically, if a company seeks the short-term enhancement of company performance, it needs to have a one-shot strategy (making a large investment at one time). On the other hand, if a company seeks a long-term sustainable profit structure, it needs to have a split strategy (making several small investments at different times). The findings from this study make several contributions to the literature. In terms of methodology, the study integrates both economic modeling and simulation technique in order to overcome the limitations of each methodology. It also indicates the mediating effect of product quality on the relationship between information technology and the performance of a company. Finally, it analyzes the effect of information technology investment strategies and information diffusion among consumers on the investment performance of information technology.

A Study on Profitability of the Allianced Discount Program with Credit Cards and Loyalty Cards in Food & Beverage Industry (제휴카드 할인프로그램이 외식업의 수익성에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Young Sik;Cha, Kyoung Cheon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.55-78
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    • 2011
  • Recently strategic alliance between business firms has become prevalent to overcome increasing competitive threats and to supplement resource limitation of individual firms. As one of allianced sales promotion activities, a new type of discount program, so called "Alliance Card Discount", is introduced with the partnership of credit cards and loyalty cards. The program mainly pursues short-term sales growth by larger discount scheme while spends less through cost share among alliance partners. Thus this program can be regarded as cost efficient discount promotion. But because there is no solid evidence that it can really deliver profitable sales growth, an empirical study for its effects on sales and profit should be conducted. This study has two basic research questions concerning the effects of allianced discount program ; 1)the possibility of sales increase 2) the profitability of the discount driven sales. In F&B industry, sales increase mainly comes from increased guest count. Especially in family restaurants, to increase the number of guests we need to enlarge the size of visitor group (number of visitors for one group) because customers visit by group in a special occasion. And because they pay the bill by group(table), the increase of sales per table is a key measure for sales improvement. The past researches for price & discount sensitivity and reference discount rate explain that price sensitive consumers have narrow reference discount zone and make rational purchase decision. Differently from all time discount scheme of regular sales promotions, the alliance card discount program only provides the right to get discount like discount coupon. And because it is usually once a month opportunity given by the past month usage level, customers tend to perceive alliance card discount as a rare chance to get. So that we can expect customers try to maximize the discount effect when they use the limited discount opportunity. Considering group visiting practice and low visit frequency of family restaurants, the way to maximize discount effect should be the increase the size of visit group. And their sensitivity to discount and rational consumption behavior defer the additional spending for ordering high price menu, even though they get considerable amount of savings from the discount. From the analysis of sales data paid by alliance discount cards for four months, we found the below. 1) The relation between discount rate and number of guest per table is positive : 25% discount results one additional guest 2) The relation between discount rate and the spending per guest is negative. 3) However, total profit amount per table is increased when discount rate is increased. 4) Reward point accumulation & redemption did not show any significant relationship with the increase of number of guests. These results suggest that the allianced discount program substantially contributes to sales increase and profit improvement by increasing the number of guests per table. Though the spending per guest is decreased by discount rate increase, the total amount of profit per table is improved. It seems the incremental profit by increased guest count offsets the profit decrease. Additional intriguing finding is the point reward system does not have any significant impact on the increase of number of guest, even if the point accumulation & redemption of loyalty program are usually regarded as another saving offers by customers. In sum, because it is proved that allianced discount program with credit cards and loyalty cards is effective to both sales drive and profit increase, the alliance card program could be recommended as strategically buyable program.

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Characteristics of Coal Slurry Gasification under Partial Slagging Operating Condition (부분 용융 운전 조건에서 석탄슬러리 가스화 운전 특성)

  • Lee, Jin Wook;Chung, Seok Woo;Lee, Seung Jong;Jung, Woohyun;Byun, Yong Soo;Hwang, Sang Yeon;Jeon, Dong Hwan;Ryu, Sang Oh;Lee, Ji Eun;Jeong, Ki Jin;Kim, Jin Ho;Yun, Yongseung
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.657-666
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    • 2014
  • Coal gasification technology is considered as next generation clean coal technology even though it uses coal as fuel which releases huge amount of greenhouse gas because it has many advantages for carbon capture. Coal or pet-coke slurry gasification is very attractive technology at present and in the future because of its low construction cost and flexibility of slurry feeding system in spite of lower efficiency compared to dry feeding technology. In this study, we carried out gasification experiment using bituminous coal slurry sample by integrating coal slurry feeding facility and slurry burner into existing dry feeding compact gasifier. Especially, our experiment was conducted under fairly lower operation temperature than that of existing entrained-bed gasifier, resulting in partial slagging operation mode in which only part of ash was converted to slag and the rest of ash was released as fly ash. Carbon conversion rate was calculated from data analysis of collected slag and ash, and then cold gas efficiency, which is the most important indicator of gasifier performance, was estimated by carbon mass balance method. Fairly high performance considering pilot-scale experiment, 98.5% of carbon conversion and 60.4% of cold gas efficiency, was achieved. In addition, soundness of experimental result was verified from the comparison with chemical equilibrium composition and energy balance calculations.

A Comparative Analysis of Teukyakmeip and Consignment (특약매입과 콘사인먼트 비교분석)

  • Kim, Dong-Ho;Kim, Sung-Soo;Jung, Myung-Hee;Youn, Myoung-Kil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.5-9
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study was to compare and contrast the applicability and effectiveness of both teukyakmeip contracts of Korea and consignment contracts of the United State to demonstrate the effectiveness and practicability of teukyakmeip in Korea. These are popular contract agreements between large retailers and their suppliers and vendors. In recent years, teukyakmeip was critically examined and scrutinized by the politicians, the media, and the public of Korea. Consequently, this paper focusesheavily on identifying and analyzing different types of contract agreements between large retailers and their suppliers that currently exist in Korea and compares and contrasts those analyzed contract agreements with teukyakmeip. The article also comparesand contrasts teukyakmeip with the consignment agreements of the United States to identify similarities and differences. Research design, data, and methodology - This study is a descriptive study and has used personal interviews to collect and analyze the data. This study also fits the definition of the case study wherein it is entirely focused on investigating a real-life event: analyzing and examining contract agreements in the distribution industry. Both randomly selected management and vendor representatives from the three major department stores, Lotte, Hyundai, and Shinsegae, in Korea were interviewed between July and September 2013. The analysis of the consignment agreement was conducted based on existing secondary data. Results - Although the evidence of the abuse of teukyakmeip and consignment by large retailers from both countries clearly exists, the findings suggestthat both contract agreements would remain as the most relevant and effective legal contracts between large retailers and their suppliers. Based on the comparisonanalysis of teukyakmeip and consignment, both contracts indicated that suppliers are fully responsible for inventory and inventory management. If sales person is necessary for promoting special product, then suppliers are responsible for providing a sales person and their wages under both contracts. However, American department stores, those located outside urban area, tend to use their own employees to perform special product and sales promotion. The retailersare fully responsible for any interior or floor design or redesign of the retail store to accommodate the products from vendors under consignment; however, both suppliers and retailers share the cost of designing and redesigning the interior to accommodate vendors'products under teukyakmeip. Suppliers are responsible for pricing and supplying the quantity of the products under both agreements. Both contracts allow special sales commission as long as vendors agreed. Vendors use this special commissionto introduce their new products or apply market penetration strategy. Conclusions -The findings of this study showed the changing pattern of contract agreements between large retailers and their suppliers from both countries. Furthermore, this study evidently generated policy implications of teukyakmeip which recently became the major social issue in Korea and attracted many policymakers to gain political points by criticizing the teukyakmeip system and the large retailers. The findings of the study would be valuable to policy makers in making appropriate decisions and to large retailers and vendors in making beneficial agreements. The major implication of this study is that teukyakmeip and consignment agreements include very similar or almost identical characteristics, and they are popular among department stores and suppliers. The issue of abolishing teukyakmeip in Korea needs to be examined cautiously because teukyakmeip is the best one available at the moment, and the study suggests that no one benefits from abolishing this system.

Estimation on Optimum Fishing Effort of Walleye Pollock Fishery in the East Coast of Korea : Based on the Economic Analysis between Danish Seine Fishery and Trawl Fishery for Walleye Pollock (한국 동해 명태 어업의 적정어획노력량 추정 -동해구기선저인망어업과 동해구트롤어업의 경제성분석을 근거로-)

  • 이장욱
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.75-99
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    • 1991
  • A quantitative analysis was carried out to monitor the commercial yield level of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma in the east coast of Korea, based on available data on catch and fishing effort, catch per unit of effort including fish prices from 1911 to 1988, using a traditional yield model. The results from the quantitative assessment were based to estimate maximum economic yield (MEY) and optimal fishing effort (E-opt) at MEY. On the other hand, interaction aspects between danish seine fishery and trawl fishery mainly targeting walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea were studied to predict optimal situation in fishing effort level from economic point of view which gives the most benefits to the two fisheries. Total production of walleye pollock in 1911 when its catch record was begun for the first time was about 12, 000 metric tons(M/T), and then the catch trend maintained nearly at the level of 50, 000 M/T per annum, showing a decreasing trend until 1930. The highest production from historical data base on walleye pollock fishery statistics was from the years in 1939 and 1940, about 270, 000 M/T and 26, 000 M/T, respectively. No production of the fish species was recorded during the years from 1943 to 1947, and from 1949 to 1951. From 1952 onwards annual production was only available from the southern part of 38$^{\circ}$N in the east coast. During two decades from 1952 to 1970, the production had sustained about less than 30, 000 M/T every year. Annual production showed an increasing trend from 1971, reaching a maximum level of approximately 162, 000 M/T in 1981. Afterwards, it has deceased sharply year after year and amounted to 180, 000 M/T in 1988. The catch composition of walleye pollock for different fishery segments during 1970~1988 showed that more than 70% of the total catch was from danish seine fishery until 1977 but from 1978 onwards, the catch proportion did not differ from one another, accounting for the nearly same proportion. Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery maintained a decline tendency after 1977 when the values of CPUE were at level of 800 kg/haul for the former fishery and 1, 300 kg/haul for the latter fishery, respectively. CPUEs of gillnet fishery during 1980~1983 increased to about 3.5 times as high value as in the years, 1970~1979 and during 1987~1988 it decreased again to the level of the years, 1970~1978. The bottom longline fishery's CPUE wa at a very low level (20 kg/basket) through the whole study years, with exception of the value (60 kg/basket) in 1980. Fishing grounds of walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea showed a very limited distribution range. Danish seine fishery concentrated fishing around the coastal areas of Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and October~December. Distributions of fishing grounds of trawl fishery were the areas along the coastal regions in the central part of the east coast. Gillnet and bottom longline fisheries fished walleye pollock mainly in the areas of around Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and December. Relationship between CPUEs' values from danish seine fishery and trawl fishery was used to standardize fishing effort to apply to surplus production model for estimating maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and optimum fish effort (F-opt) at MSY. The results suggested a MSY of 114, 000 M/T with an estimated F-opt of 173, 000 hauls per year. Based on the estimates of MSY and F-opt, MEY was estimated to be about 94, 000 M/T with a range of 81, 000 to 103, 000 M/T and E-opt 100, 000 hauls per year with a range of 80, 000 to 120, 000 hauls. The estimated values of MEY and E-opt corresponded to 82% of MSY and 58% of F-opt, respectively. An optimal situation in the fishing effort level, which can envisage either simultaneously maximum yield or maximum benefit for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery, was determined from relationship between revenue and cost of running the fleet : the optimal fishing effort of danish seine fishery was about 52, 000 hauls per year, corresponding to 50 danish seiners and 27, 000 hauls per year which is equal nearly to 36 trawlers, respectively. It was anticipated that the net income from sustainable yield estimated from the respective optimal fishing effort of the two fisheries will be about 3, 800 million won for danish seine fishery and 1, 000 million won for trawl fishery.

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Estimated Exposure Dose and Usage of Radiological Examination of the National Health Screening (국가건강검진의 방사선검사 이용량 및 피폭선량 추정)

  • Gil, Jong Won;Park, Jong Hyock;Park, Min Hui;Park, Chan Young;Kim, So Young;Shin, Dong Wook;Kim, Won Dong
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.142-149
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    • 2014
  • Korea conducts a national health screening program to improve and check-up on public health and in recent years, the screening usage has been increased. Given the increased screening usage for radiographic exams, this study predicts the frequency of using radiographic exams and the exposure dose. This study estimates the usage of radiographic exams by isolating radiographic exams from the 2011 analysis of the national health insurance corporation, and estimates the public exposure dose by applying each procedure's dose table from UNSCEAR 2008. As a result of the analysis, in the 2011 National Health Screening, the average exposure dose per person is assumed to be 0.57 mSv, and depending on the type of screening program from the radiographic exam, an examinee could be exposed to between 0.2 mSv and 11.081 mSv. The frequency of using radiographic exposure was found to be 16,005,914 and the exposure dose was 6,311.76 person-Sv. The most frequent exam is the Chest X-ray, which was performed 1,070,567 (69.17%), and the UGI has the highest exposure dose at 5,217.94 person-Sv (82.67%). The outcome is categorized based on gender and age, excluding those under 39 years old. In all age groups, the screening usage and exposure dose are higher in females than in males. In particular, females between 50 and 54 years old have the highest screening usage (1,674,787, 10.5%) and exposure dose (701.59 person-Sv, 11.1%). As UGI accounts for 82.76% of procedures, except when done for medical purposes, if the government supports a voluntary UGI exam (which includes the UGI exam in the National Screening Program) or abolishes it completely, as seen overseas, the cost-effectiveness and validity of the UGI exam, as well as the exposure dose from the National Screening Program will all decrease significantly.