• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.56 no.1
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• pp.117-124
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• 2023

A Forbush decrease (FD) is a depression of cosmic ray (CR) intensity observed by ground-based neutron monitors (NMs). The CR intensity is thought to be modulated by the heliospheric magnetic structures including the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) surrounding the Earth. The different magnitude of the decreasing in intensity at each NM was explained only by the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity of the NM station. However, sometimes NMs of almost the same cutoff rigidity in northern and southern hemispheres observe the asymmetric intensity depression magnitudes of FD events. Thus, in this study we intend to see the effects on CR intensity modulation of FD event recorded at different NMs due to different ICME propagation directions as an additional parameter in the model explaining the CR modulation. Fortunately, since 2006 the coronagraphs of twin spacecraft of the STEREO mission allow us to infer the propagation direction of ICME associated with the FD event in 3-dimension with respect to the Earth. We suggest the hypothesis that the asymmetric CR modulations of FD events are determined by the propagation directions of the associated ICMEs.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.92.1-92.1
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• 2012

In this work we have examined the performance of the WSA/ENLIL cone model provided by Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). The WSA/ENLIL model simulates the propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun into the heliosphere. We estimate the shock arrival times at the Earth using 29 halo CMEs from 2001 to 2002. These halo CMEs have cone model parameters from Michalek et al. (2007) as well as their associated interplanetary (IP) shocks. We make a comparison between CME arrival times by the WSA/ENLIL cone model and IP shock observations. For the WSA/ENLIL cone model, the root mean square(RMS) error is about 13 hours and the mean absolute error(MAE) is approximately 10.4 hours. We compared these estimates with those of the empirical model by Kim et al.(2007). For the empirical model, the RMS and MAE errors are about 10.2 hours and 8.7 hours, respectively. We are investigating several possibilities on relatively large errors of the WSA/ENLIL cone model, which may be caused by cone model velocities, CME density enhancement factor, or CME-CME interaction.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.50.2-50.2
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• 2019

Understanding three-dimensional structure and parameters (e.g., radial velocity, angular width, source location and density) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is essential for space weather forecast. In this study, we determine CME mean density in solar corona and near the Earth. We select 38 halo CMEs, which have the corresponding interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), by SOHO/LASCO from 2000 to 2014. To estimate a CME volume, we assume that a CME structure is a full ice-cream cone which is a symmetrical circular cone combined with a hemisphere. We derive CME mean density as a function of radial height, which are approximately fitted to power-law functions. The average of power-law indexes is about 2.1 in the LASCO C3 field of view. We also obtain power-law functions for both CME mean density at 21 solar radii and ICME mean density at 1AU, with the average power-law index of 2.6. We estimate a ratio of CME density to background density based on the Leblanc et al.(1998) at 21 solar radii. Interestingly, the average of the ratios is 4.0, which is the same as a default value used in the WSA-ENLIL model.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.31-38
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• 2012

In this study we apply Support Vector Machine (SVM) to the prediction of geo-effective halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The SVM, which is one of machine learning algorithms, is used for the purpose of classification and regression analysis. We use halo and partial halo CMEs from January 1996 to April 2010 in the SOHO/LASCO CME Catalog for training and prediction. And we also use their associated X-ray flare classes to identify front-side halo CMEs (stronger than B1 class), and the Dst index to determine geo-effective halo CMEs (stronger than -50 nT). The combinations of the speed and the angular width of CMEs, and their associated X-ray classes are used for input features of the SVM. We make an attempt to find the best model by using cross-validation which is processed by changing kernel functions of the SVM and their parameters. As a result we obtain statistical parameters for the best model by using the speed of CME and its associated X-ray flare class as input features of the SVM: Accuracy=0.66, PODy=0.76, PODn=0.49, FAR=0.72, Bias=1.06, CSI=0.59, TSS=0.25. The performance of the statistical parameters by applying the SVM is much better than those from the simple classifications based on constant classifiers.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.53 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2020

The recent study of Chae et al. (2017) found a one-to-one correspondence between plasma blobs outflowing along a ray formed after a coronal mass ejection (CME) and small X-ray flares. In the present work, we have examined the spatial configuration and the eruption process of the flares that are associated with the blobs by analyzing EUV images and magnetograms taken by the SDO/AIA and HMI. We found that the main flare and the successive small flares took place in a quadrupolar magnetic configuration characterized by predominant magnetic fields of positive polarity, two minor magnetic fragments of negative polarity, and a curved polarity inversion line between them, which suggests that the formation process of the blobs may be similar to that of the parent CME. We also found that the successive flares resulted in a gradual change of the quadrupolar magnetic configuration, and the relevant migration of flaring kernels. The three-dimensional geometry and the property of the current sheet, that is often supposed to be embedded in an observed post-CME ray, seem to keep changing because of mutual feedback between the successive flares and the temporal change of the magnetic field configuration. Our results suggest that the observed post-CME rays may not reflect the characteristics of the current sheet responsible for the impulsive phase of the flare.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.315-330
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• 2017

Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from solar activities give rise to geomagnetic storms when they reach the Earth. Variations in the geomagnetic field during a geomagnetic storm can damage satellites, communication systems, electrical power grids, and power systems, and induce currents. Therefore, automated techniques for detecting and analyzing halo CMEs have been eliciting increasing attention for the monitoring and prediction of the space weather environment. In this study, we developed an algorithm to sense and detect halo CMEs using large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) C3 coronagraph images from the solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite. In addition, we developed an image processing technique to derive the morphological and dynamical characteristics of halo CMEs, namely, the source location, width, actual CME speed, and arrival time at a 21.5 solar radius. The proposed halo CME automatic analysis model was validated using a model of the past three halo CME events. As a result, a solar event that occurred at 03:38 UT on Mar. 23, 2014 was predicted to arrive at Earth at 23:00 UT on Mar. 25, whereas the actual arrival time was at 04:30 UT on Mar. 26, which is a difference of 5 hr and 30 min. In addition, a solar event that occurred at 12:55 UT on Apr. 18, 2014 was estimated to arrive at Earth at 16:00 UT on Apr. 20, which is 4 hr ahead of the actual arrival time of 20:00 UT on the same day. However, the estimation error was reduced significantly compared to the ENLIL model. As a further study, the model will be applied to many more events for validation and testing, and after such tests are completed, on-line service will be provided at the Korean Space Weather Center to detect halo CMEs and derive the model parameters.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.46.1-46.1
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• 2010

This work is a part of our project to establish a Website which provides a list of magnetic clouds (MCs) identified by WIND and ACE spacecraft. MCs are characterized by their magnetic fields that are well described by magnetic flux rope structures, whereas interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are interplanetary manifestations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), usually identified by differences of plasma and magnetic field characteristics from those in the background solar wind. It is widely accepted that, while MCs are generally identified within ICMEs, the number of MCs are significantly lower than the number of ICMEs. In our effort to identify MCs, however, we have found that there was a big problem in identification method of MCs in previous works. Generally speaking, most of the previous surveys failed in identifying MCs which encounter the spacecraft at large distances from the MC axis, or near the surface of MC structures. In our survey, MCs are identified as the region of which magnetic fields are well described by appropriate flux rope models. Thus, we could selected over 45 MCs, in 1999 solar wind data for instance, while 33 ICMEs are listed in the Website of the ACE Science Center reported by Richardson and Cane.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2011.04a
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• pp.28.2-28.2
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• 2011

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are enormous eruptions of plasma ejected from the Sun into interplanetary space, and mainly responsible for geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle events. It is very important to infer their direction of propagation, speed and their 3-dimensional configurations in terms of space weather forecast. Two STEREO satellites provide us with 3-dimensional stereoscopic measurements. Using the STEREO observations, we can determine the 3-dimensional structure and radial velocity of the CME. In this study, we applied three different methods to the 2008 April 26 event: (1) Ice cream Cone Model by Xue (2005) using the SOHO/LASCO data, (2) Flux rope model by Thernisien (2009) using the STEREO/SECCHI data, (3) Flux rope model with zero angle using the STEREO/SECCHI data. The last method in which separation angle of flux rope is zero, is similar to the ice cream cone model morphologically. The comparison shows that the radial speeds from three methods are estimated to be about 750km/s and are within ${\pm}120km/s$. We will extend this comparison to other CMEs observed by STEREO and SOHO/LASCO.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.181-186
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• 2008

Recently, Choe & Cheng (2002) have demonstrated that multiple magnetic flux systems with closed configurations can have more magnetic energy than the corresponding open magnetic fields. In relation to this issue, we have addressed two questions: (1) how much fraction of eruptive solar active regions shows multiple flux system features, and (2) what winding angle could be an eruption threshold. For this investigation, we have taken a sample of 105 front-side halo CMEs, which occurred from 1996 to 2001, and whose source regions were located near the disk center, for which magnetic polarities in SOHO/MDI magnetograms are clearly discernible. Examining their soft X-ray images taken by Yohkoh SXT in pre-eruption stages, we have classified these events into two groups: multiple flux system events and single flux system events. It is found that 74% (78/105) of the sample events show multiple flux system features. Comparing the field configuration of an active region with a numerical model, we have also found that the winding angle of the eruptive flux system is slightly above $1.5{\pi}$.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.67.3-68
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• 2017

Bright rays are often observed after coronal mass ejections (CMEs) erupt. These rays are dynamical structures along which plasmas move outward. We investigated the outflows along the post-CME rays observed by the COR2 on board STEREO Behind on 2013 September 21 and 22. We tracked two CMEs, two ray tips, and seven blobs using the NAVE optical flow technique. As a result, we found that the departure times of blobs and ray tips from the optimally chosen starting height of 0.5 $R{\odot}$ coincided with the occurrence times of the corresponding recurrent small flares within 10 minutes. These small flares took place many hours after the major flares. This result supports a magnetic reconnection origin of the outward flows along the post-CME ray and the importance of magnetic islands for understanding the process of magnetic reconnection. The total energy of magnetic reconnection maintaining the outflows for 40 hr is estimated at 1.4' 1030 erg. Further investigations of plasma outflows along post-CME rays will shed much light on the physical properties of magnetic reconnection occurring in the solar corona.