• Title/Summary/Keyword: coronal

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Empirical Forecast of Corotating Interacting Regions and Geomagnetic Storms Based on Coronal Hole Information (코로나 홀을 이용한 CIR과 지자기 폭풍의 경험적 예보 연구)

  • Lee, Ji-Hye;Moon, Yong-Jae;Choi, Yun-Hee;Yoo, Kye-Hwa
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.305-316
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    • 2009

  • In this study, we suggest an empirical forecast of CIR (Corotating Interaction Regions) and geomagnetic storm based on the information of coronal holes (CH). For this we used CH data obtained from He I $10830{\AA}$ maps at National Solar Observatory-Kitt Peak from January 1996 to November 2003 and the CIR and storm data that Choi et al. (2009) identified. Considering the relationship among coronal holes, CIRs, and geomagnetic storms (Choi et al. 2009), we propose the criteria for geoeffective coronal holes; the center of CH is located between $N40^{\circ}$ and $S40^{\circ}$ and between $E40^{\circ}$ and $W20^{\circ}$, and its area in percentage of solar hemispheric area is larger than the following areas: (1) case 1: 0.36%, (2) case 2: 0.66%, (3) case 3: 0.36% for 1996-2000, and 0.66% for 2001-2003. Then we present contingency tables between prediction and observation for three cases and their dependence on solar cycle phase. From the contingency tables, we determined several statistical parameters for forecast evaluation such as PODy (the probability of detection yes), FAR (the false alarm ratio), Bias (the ratio of "yes" predictions to "yes" observations) and CSI (critical success index). Considering the importance of PODy and CSI, we found that the best criterion is case 3; CH-CIR: PODy=0.77, FAR=0.66, Bias=2.28, CSI=0.30. CH-storm: PODy=0.81, FAR=0.84, Bias=5.00, CSI=0.16. It is also found that the parameters after the solar maximum are much better than those before the solar maximum. Our results show that the forecasting of CIR based on coronal hole information is meaningful but the forecast of goemagnetic storm is challenging.

  • https://doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2009.26.3.305 인용 PDF KSCI