• Title/Summary/Keyword: contingency analysis

Search Result 287, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Analysis of Users' Satisfaction Utility for Precipitation Probabilistic Forecast Using Collective Value Score (그룹 가치스코어 모형을 활용한 강수확률예보의 사용자 만족도 효용 분석)

  • Yoon, Seung Chul;Lee, Ki-Kwang
    • Korean Management Science Review
    • /
    • v.32 no.4
    • /
    • pp.97-108
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study proposes a mathematical model to estimate the economic value of weather forecast service, among which the precipitation forecast service is focused. The value is calculated in terms of users' satisfaction or dissatisfaction resulted from the users' decisions made by using the precipitation probabilistic forecasts and thresholds. The satisfaction values can be quantified by the traditional value score model, which shows the scaled utility values relative to the perfect forecast information. This paper extends the value score concept to a collective value score model which is defined as a weighted sum of users' satisfaction based on threshold distribution in a group of the users. The proposed collective value score model is applied to the picnic scenario by using four hypothetical sets of probabilistic forecasts, i.e., under-confident, over-confident, under-forecast and over-forecast. The application results show that under-confident type of forecasts outperforms the others as a measure of the maximum collective value regardless of users' dissatisfaction patterns caused by two types of forecast errors, e.g., miss and false alarm.

Design and Implementation of Group Decision Support System using Object-Oriented Modeling Technique (OMT를 이용한 그룹의사결정지원시스템의 설계 및 구현)

  • Kim, Soung-Hie;Cho, Sung-Sik;Kim, Sun-Uk;Park, Hung-Kook
    • IE interfaces
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.169-187
    • /
    • 1997
  • Recently, in organizations many decisions are being made by groups. And the organization is changing a lot so are groups. To help decision making of changing groups, we need more flexible and more adaptive GDSS. Therefore one of the critical success factors of GDSS is flexibility and incremental improvement. Prior research on specifying design requirements of GDSS suggests generic design requirements. But they are too general to be incorporated directly into system design, because of the disparity between real group and ideal group that the researchers studied. Many design strategies that start from the generic design requirements thus have contingency variables that changes as the characteristics of group change. From the viewpoint of developers, these variables implicate the desirability of flexibility. To achieve flexibility we need new methodology of design and implementation. Nowadays, object-oriented analysis and design methodologies have been progressed to the point that many systems are being developed through these methodologies. In this paper, a design is proposed using Object-Oriented Modeling Techniques(OMT). Exploiting object-oriented paradigm results in a highly flexible and easily upgradable design.

  • PDF

Deterministic Reliability Evaluation of Korea Power System by POM/OPM/BOR (POM/OPM/BOR를 이용한 한국계통의 결정론적 신뢰도 평가)

  • Choi, J.S.;Kwon, J.J.;Tran, T.T.;Park, J.G.;Yoon, Y.T.;Jeon, D.H.;Choi, H.S.;Kang, S.W.;Vaimann, M.M.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
    • /
    • 2005.11b
    • /
    • pp.125-128
    • /
    • 2005
  • This paper illustrates potential applications of POM/OPM/BOR, which are used for deterministic reliability evaluation in the operation mode (operational planning and operating) in Korea Power System. Deterministic reliability evaluation in this paper bases the philosophy of the marginality and the limitation of physical quantity (voltage and thermal in main) under contingency analysis. The POM/OPM/BOR tools have been developed by V&R (Vaimann and Research) in USA. Before case studies, main frame and feature of the tools are introduced in brief. Case studies of the actual power system of Korea are demonstrated for checking the application possibility of POM/OPM/BOR.

  • PDF

Collapsibility Using Raindrop Plot (RAINDROP PLOT을 이용한 차원축소)

  • Hong C. S.;Kim B. J.;Park J. Y.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.471-485
    • /
    • 2005
  • For categorical data analysis, the collapsibility were explained with the odds ratio (cross-product ratio). When these theories with these odds ratios are applied to real $2{\times}2{\times}K$ contingency tables, it is impossible to decide whether data are collapsible. Among graphical methods to represent odds ratios, Contour plot which is developed by Doi, Nakamura and Yamamoto (2001) could explain the structure of these data, but cannot decide on the collapsibility. In this paper, by using the Raindrop plot proposed by Barrowman and Myers (2003), we suggest an alternative method which can not only explain the structure of data, but also decide on the collapsibility.

Noise Analysis of Nonlinear Image Sensor Model with Application to SNR Estimation (위성용 카메라 비선형 모델의 잡음 특성 분석과 영상 신호-잡음비(Image SNR) 분포도 계산)

  • Myung, Hwan-Chun;Lee, Sang-Kon
    • Aerospace Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.58-65
    • /
    • 2009
  • The paper identifies noise characteristics of a nonliner image sensor model which reflects a saturation effect of each detector pixel and extends the result to estimate an image SNR (Signla-to-Noise Ratio) distribution over all the pixels in a detector. In particular, nonlinearity of a pixel is studied from two perspectives of including asymmetry of a noise PDF (Probability Distribution Function) and enhancing a pixel SNR value, in comparison to a linear model. It is noted that the proposed image SNR distribution function is useful to effectively select new optimal operation parameter values: an integration time and an pixel-summing number, even after a launch campaign, assuming sensor gain degradation in orbit or inevitable modification of some operation parameter values due to space contingency.

  • PDF

Reliability analysis of the switch installation in the main feeder and in the radial/loop lateral feeders in distribution system (간선 및 분기선의 개폐기 설치 효과 분석(I))

  • Cho, Nam-Hun;O, Jae-Hyeong;Lee, Heung-Ho;Ha, Bok-Nam
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
    • /
    • 2002.07a
    • /
    • pp.79-82
    • /
    • 2002
  • The addition of switches to a distribution feeder does, in general, increase reliability by decreasing the duration of the outage of many to the customers on the feeder. To cover its service area so that feeder-level delivery reaches sufficiently close to all customers, feeders typically split their routes many times, in what is often called a lateral feeder. It is interesting to note, however, that the effectiveness of a switch is very much dependent on the types of lateral feeder. The types of lateral are classified into two types. The first is loop lateral feeder that can connect its load to an adjacent feeder through a tie line in case that a fault occurs in its feeder and it is laid out so that every feeder has complete fault backup through re-switching of its loads to other sources like a main feeder. The second is the radial lateral feeder cannot connect its load to an adjacent line, no provision is made for contingency backup of feeders. There are no other circuits in the radial lateral feeder form which to restore power. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of a switch installation between on the radial and loop lateral feeders to increase reliability by decreasing the duration of the outage. These results can help power utility to design the switch layouts on the radial and loop lateral feeder system.

  • PDF

Risk Assessment for the Converted Lump-sum Turnkey Project (전환 정액일괄도급 계약방식 프로젝트의 리스크 분석)

  • Hwang, Duk-Jin;Moon, Seung-Jae;Yoo, Ho-seon
    • Plant Journal
    • /
    • v.7 no.2
    • /
    • pp.39-43
    • /
    • 2011
  • Due to the recent uncertainty of market situations such as the escalation of petroleum prices, increased production capacities of plants, limitations of the available EPC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction) contractors, and the increase of raw material prices, EPC contractors have had a tendency to include a higher reserve contingency in the lump-sum turnkey contract price. In order to overcome the changes in the market, the plant project construction industry has started to apply the converted lump-sum turnkey contract in plant construction market. This study was focused to find the associated risks and to analyse the identified risks on recent trend of application of the new contract type, which is the converted lump-sum turnkey contract. It was recognized from the analysis that quality and cost have more high priority risks than other project objectives. This paper also suggests the mitigation plan for identified risks to achieve project objectives appropriate to the converted lump-sum turnkey project from the viewpoint of an EPC contractor keeping transparency with owner.

  • PDF

A Study of Contingency Analysis using Generator Loss Coefficient and Load Loss Coefficient (Generator Loss Coefficient와 Load Loss Coefficient를 이용한 고장영향 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Bo-Hyun;Oh, Seung-chan;Oh, Hyung-Jin;Lee, Byong-Jun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
    • /
    • 2015.07a
    • /
    • pp.268-269
    • /
    • 2015
  • 복잡화된 국내 전력계통의 부하는 지속적으로 증가하는 반면 새로운 설비의 건설이 어렵고, 지역 편중화된 발전설비 때문에 선로 과부하, 고장전류, 전압안정도 문제가 발생하고 있다. 초고압 선로의 고장은 계통을 크게 불안정하게 하기 때문에 고장에 의해 영향을 받는 지역과 고장 후 계통의 조류변화를 분석하는 것은 중요하다. 현재 고장의 영향을 분석하기 위하여 조류계산을 통한 정적해석과 시모의를 통한 동적해석을 사용하다. 그리고 좀 더 큰 그림을 그리기 위하여 각종 전압안정도 지수를 사용한다. 하지만 일반적으로는 고장이후 계통에서 유효전력 흐름에 변화가 있는 지역을 분석하기 위해서는 번거로운 작업이 필요한 단점이 있다. Generation loass coefficient(GLC)는 transmmision loss factor(TLF)에서 발생한 문제를 분석하기 위해 제안되었고, load loss coefficient(LLC)는 각 부하에 전력을 공급하기 위해 발생하는 손실을 발전기별로 분석하기 위해 제안되었다. 위의 두 지수는 계통해석을 위해서 제안된 것은 아니었으나 전력조류추적기법을 기반으로하여 개발되었기 때문에 계통의 전력조류 흐름 변화에 대한 정보를 담고 있다는 특징이 있다. 본 논문에서는 GLC와 LLC의 개념에 대하여 설명하고 계통에서 발생하는 고장의 영향을 해석하는 관점에서 GLC와 LLC를 활용한다. 시뮬레이션 결과를 통해 GLC와 LLC지수로 계통에 대한 이해를 높이는 방안에 대하여 제안한다.

  • PDF

Contingency Model to Increase the Uptake of Higher Education Graduates in the Job Market

  • TRISNANINGSIH, Sri;SUTRISNO, Sutrisno;PERMATASARI, Yani;HENDRA, Failasuf Herman;SULISTYOWATI, Erna
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.4
    • /
    • pp.197-203
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study investigates graduate competencies that can improve the uptake of higher education graduate outcomes in the working environment in Indonesia. This research was conducted by collecting data through sending questionnaires directly by the research team, via courier, or via postal service to respondents. A survey with questionnaire is carried out on April 2019, and the data from 117 respondents was analyzed. The sample population was all private higher education in the area of the I-XIV Higher Education Service Institution in Indonesia. This study employs factor analysis and structural equation modelling. The results show that the Graduates' competencies had a significant direct effect on the uptake of higher education graduates in the job market. The indirect effect of a Diploma Supplement and networking as mediation has a level of influence that is higher than the direct effect of graduate competence on the uptake of higher education graduate outcomes in the job market. The findings suggest that the Diploma Supplement and networking can increase the uptake of higher education graduates in Indonesia as expected by stakeholders and be able to compete in the global or international scale of environmental working. The professionalism of lecturers has a significant influence on the quality of learning.

Awareness and perceived necessity of dietary guidelines among urban Koreans by gender

  • Hong, Kyung-Eui;Moon, Hyun-Kyung;Cho, Sung-Il;Ahn, Byung-Chul;Joung, Hyo-Jee
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
    • /
    • v.1 no.3
    • /
    • pp.224-230
    • /
    • 2007
  • We examined an urban population's awareness of dietary guidelines to determine whether they perceived them to be necessary, and identified the factors affecting this awareness and perceived necessity. Data were collected via physical examinations and face-to-face interviews. Health indicators were collected from health examinations, and information on individual characteristics, including awareness, perceived necessity, and dietary status were obtained from the interviews. The subjects' sociodemographic, health and dietary status were examined as potential factors influencing awareness and perceived necessity. Descriptive statistics, contingency tables, and logistic regression modeling were used in the analysis. Low awareness of the dietary guidelines was displayed by the elderly and poorly educated individuals, and those without a spouse. Most people who were not aware of the dietary guidelines thought the guidelines unnecessary. Males with hypertension and lower hemoglobin levels, and females with less education had low awareness. Elderly females with lower bone density had less perceived necessity. Males and females with poor dietary status reported low perceived necessity.