• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.37 no.4
• /
• pp.161-173
• /
• 2021

The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.147-156
• /
• 2011

Since the urbanization process has been taking place, negative outcomes such as environmental pollution and traffic congestion have produced as well. Reflecting the phenomenon, our study assumed that physical structure of urban form were implicit in relation to both economic performance and cost. It can be interpreted that as the urban space has been growing bigger, economic performances such as regional product output, economy of scale and the effect of agglomeration economies are increased. On the contrary, the negative effects such as environmental pollution and traffic congestion were incurred as economic loss and expenses. It means that even though economic performance can help increase regional product output, we should consider the loss on economic expenses which are paid for social problems such as environmental pollution and traffic congestion, which are caused by urbanization. Therefore, this study aims to statistically validate the relationship between traffic congestion as the most representative economy costs and physical characteristics of urban in a large city such as Seoul and to suggest its implications. As a result of model development for empirical analysis, GRDP(0.604), the population(0.582), employment GINI coefficients(0.296), population GINI coefficients(0.254) in order led to congestion cost. We can come to the conclusion that in case of scale factor such as the population, if the population tends to concentrate, urban becomes more crowded and that if GINI coefficients (the population, employment) which are variable on inequality according to region have the disparity with surrounding areas, congestion cost is caused a lot on account of movement related with employment. In addition, this phenomenon was caused if both the population and employment were geographically biased on one side.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.16 no.5
• /
• pp.3610-3618
• /
• 2015

The congestion of railway vehicle and station shows up to 220%. Especially, transfer resistance of passenger increase rapidly by the collision of circulation. So increment of travel time, occurrence of safety accidents act as a factor that inhibits the utilization of urban railway station. In this paper, to improve traveling speed and comfort of urban rail passengers, urban transit passenger guidance system using congestion management model is proposed. The congestion management model that can mitigate a recurring/non-recurring congestion is constructed and the preliminary design of the system (middleware system, control system, guidance drive system) is carried out. Passenger Guidance System is configured by step for changing the external data into a form usable by the algorithm, step to perform the congestion management algorithm using the real-time data and historical data, step to control device based on the value that is calculated by congestion management algorithm, step to drive the device based on the information in the control system and circulation guidance devices. In the future, detail design will be performed based on the preliminary design. A prototype of the various devices according to the station structures and locations will be made. The control module of guidance device will be developed.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
• /
• v.5 no.5
• /
• pp.1311-1319
• /
• 1998

The methods of providing available bandwidth adaptively using feedback to maximize the utilization of network as well as the quality of service have been the focus of recent research activities for ATM(Asynchronous Transfer Mode). This study has been extended from the point-to-point connection to a point-to-multipoint environment as the number of applications requiring multicast service increases. It is known that the effectiveness of feedback based congestion control scheme diminishes as propagation delay increases. Especially for a multicast connection consisting of various paths and destinations with different performance and congestion status, the problem of unfairness due to different propagation delays may occur. The degree of such unfairness may change depending on various aspects of congestion control schemes. These has been, however, relatively little study on these problems. In this paper, we present how various aspects of control schemes-length of the interval between feedback generations, point of time to coalesce feedback cells from child paths, decreasing factor of source rate in case of congestion-affect the degree of unfairness. Simulation results show that degree of unfairness changes according to when the feedback coalescing happens. Expecially it is shown that the effect of feedback coalescing time to the degree of unfairness is more significant for the smaller feedback interval. It is also found that as the source rate decreasing factor becomes larger the average ACR(Allowed Cell Rate) at the source gets lower and the degree of unfairness grow larger.

• Journal of Korean Port Research
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.47-53
• /
• 1998

Presently, it was faced with serious social problems as traffic accident, parking violation & traffic congestion due to change of industrial structure, expansion of economic volume, elevation of national life level and rapid motorization. Accordingly, the study is research to improve immidiate transportation problems which could be establish the rating model about consideration degree of evaluation factor based on MDPREF's method in connection with Intelligent Transportation System(ITS)

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.57 no.1
• /
• pp.34-39
• /
• 2008

Nash Equilibrium(NE) is essential to investigate a participant's bidding strategy in a competitive electricity market. Congestion on a transmission line makes it difficult to compute the NE due to causing a mixed strategy. In order to compute the NE of a multi-player game, some heuristics are proposed with concepts of a key player and power transfer distribution factor in other studies. However, generation capacity constraints are not considered and make it more difficult to compute the NE in the heuristics approach. This paper addresses an effect of generation capacity limits on the NE, and suggest a solution technique for the mixed strategy NE including generation capacity constraints as two heuristic rules. It is reported in this paper that a role of the key player who controls congestion in a NE can be transferred to other player depending on the generation capacity of the key player. The suggested heuristic rules are verified to compute the mixed strategy NE with a consideration of generation capacity constraints, and the effect of the generation constraints on the mixed strategy NE is analyzed in simulations of IEEE 30 bus systems.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.45 no.3
• /
• pp.40-48
• /
• 2022

An automated material handling system (AMHS) has been emerging as an important factor in the semiconductor wafer manufacturing industry. In general, an automated guided vehicle (AGV) in the Fab's AMHS travels hundreds of miles on guided paths to transport a lot through hundreds of operations. The AMHS aims to transfer wafers while ensuring a short delivery time and high operational reliability. Many linear and analytic approaches have evaluated and improved the performance of the AMHS under a deterministic environment. However, the analytic approaches cannot consider a non-linear, non-convex, and black-box performance measurement of the AMHS owing to the AMHS's complexity and uncertainty. Unexpected vehicle congestion increases the delivery time and deteriorates the Fab's production efficiency. In this study, we propose a Q-Learning based dynamic routing algorithm considering vehicle congestion to reduce the delivery time. The proposed algorithm captures time-variant vehicle traffic and decreases vehicle congestion. Through simulation experiments, we confirm that the proposed algorithm finds an efficient path for the vehicles compared to benchmark algorithms with a reduced mean and decreased standard deviation of the delivery time in the Fab's AMHS.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2000.07a
• /
• pp.373-375
• /
• 2000

By DC load flow approximation, we analyzed marginal cost that is the important factor of price signal for network congestion management and expressed as a function of load. In network congestion, a large scale electric network is partitioned into subnetwork to provide a effetive price signal through zonal pricing. We propose a new network partition technique using marginal cost sensitivity with a variety of load consumption.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2005.07a
• /
• pp.855-857
• /
• 2005

Transmission congestion is one of the Key factor to local market power in competitive electricity markets. Financial transmission rights provide the financial protection to their holders by paying back the congestion cost. However, the market participants who have market power can exacerbate their market power. This paper analyzes the effect of exercising local market power with the rights on the market price. The proposed methodology was demonstrated with the Optimal Power Flow(OPF). Case study is fulfilled by GAMS simulation. The simulation are condusted in case of Nodal Pricing.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
• /
• v.54 no.1
• /
• pp.43-50
• /
• 2005

The presence of transmission congestion may reduce the market size and split the bulk power system into smaller systems. Consequently, this can be a key factor to the increase in market price. This paper analyzes the effect of exercising local market power on the market price, and derives a range of indices which quantify the degree and incentive of local market power through statistical analysis in an electricity market with uniform pricing scheme. The applicability and effectiveness of the derived indices on competitive electricity markets are demonstrated on the Korea electricity market.