• 한국임상수의학회지
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.258-263
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• 2013

The primary goal of this study was to compute sample sizes required to achieve the each aim of a variety of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) surveillance programs, using a statistically valid technique that takes the following factors into account: sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of diagnostic test system, desired minimum detectable prevalence, precision, population size, and desired power of the survey. In addition, sample sizes to detect FMD if the disease is present and also as proof of freedom were computed. The current FMD active surveillance programs consist of clinical, virological, and serological surveillance. For the 2012 serological surveillance, annual sample sizes (n = 265,065) are planned at four separate levels: statistical (n = 60,884) and targeted (n = 115,232) at breeding pig farms and slaughter house, in together with the detection of structural proteins (SP) antibodies against FMD (n = 88,949). Overall, the sample size was not designed taking the specific aims of each surveillance stream into account. The sample sizes for statistical surveillance, assuming stratified two-stage sampling technique, was based to detect at least one FMD-infected case in the general population. The resulting sample size can be used to obtain evidence of freedom from FMD infection, not for detecting animals that have antibodies against FMD virus non-structural proteins (NSP). Additionally, sample sizes for targeted surveillance were not aimed for the population at risk, and also without consideration of statistical point of view. To at least the author's knowledge, sampling plan for targeted, breeding pig farms and slaughter house is not necessary and need to be included in the part of statistical surveillance. Assuming design prevalence of 10% in an infinite population, a total of 29 animals are required to detect at least one positive with probability of 95%, using perfect diagnostic test system (Se = Sp = 100%). A total of 57,211 animals needed to be sampled to give 95% confidence of estimating SP prevalence of 80% at the individual animal-level with a precision of ${\pm}5%$, assuming 800 herds with an average 200 heads per farm, within-farm variance of 0.2, between-farm variance of 0.05, cost ratio of 100:1 of farm against animals. Furthermore, 779,736 animals were required to demonstrate FMD freedom, and the sample size can further be reduced depending on the parameters assumed.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제17권6호
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• pp.130-137
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• 2013

본 연구는 실험계획법을 통하여 과산화수소로 발포된 석고 혼입 경량기포콘크리트로 통계적 분석을 실시하였다. 본 실험에서는 경량기포콘크리트를 구성하는 각 재료의 혼합비율을 실험인자로 설정하고, 실험을 통해 얻어진 반응변수에 대한 통계적 분석으로 역학적 특성을 평가 하였다. 실험인자는 석고혼입율, 물결합재비 및 발포제첨가비 이며, 반응변수는 겉보기밀도, 압축강도, 휨강도이다. 경량기포콘크리트의 배합은 반응표면설계의 Box-Behnken (B-B)계획법에 의해 총 15회의 실험점을 설정하였다. 본 연구결과 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다. 반응변수에 대한 각 설명인자 (석고혼입율, 물결합재비, 발포제첨가비)의 유의확률값은 유의수준 ${\alpha}$=0.05에서 유의한 것으로 추정되었다. 경량기포콘크리트의 겉보기밀도에 대한 반응표면 분석 결과, 물결합재비 와 발포제첨가비만 유의 (${\alpha}$=0.05)한 것으로 추정되었으며, 겉보기밀도와 기포량 및 함수율과의 관계는 반비례함을 확인 알 수 있었다. 경량기포콘크리트의 압축강도에 대한 반응표면 분석 결과, 물결합재비, 발포제첨가비 및 발포제첨가비의 제곱항이 유의 (${\alpha}$=0.05)한 것으로 추정되었다. 경량기포콘크리트의 휨강도에 대한 반응표면 분석 결과, 물결합재비 와 발포제첨가비만 유의 (${\alpha}$=0.05)한 것으로 추정되었다. 다중 반응 최적법을 통해 반응변수들의 목표값을 만족하는 최적조건 영역을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.181-191
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• 2009

일반적으로 상선에서 해상운송 사고의 주된 원인은 원의 인적과실로 고려되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 선박에 승선 중인 선장, 1항사, 2항사 및 3항사를 포함하는 갑판사관들이 야기할 수 있는 사고 위기를 평가하기 위한 인적과실 모델(HEM)의 구축기법에 관해서 기술했다. 연구범위는 130척의 선박을 관리하는 회사에 소속된 542명의 갑판사관들을 대상으로 했다. 우선, 갑판사관들의 인적 데이터에 대한 통계적 분석과 전문가에 의한 브레인스토밍 과정을 통해서 KEM을 구축하고, 인적과실을 평가하기 위한 인적요소들의 변수 $\upsilon$와 $\upsilon$에 대한 평가등급 EP($\upsilon$) 및 가중치 $\alpha$, 갑판사관의 직책별 가중치 $\beta$ 등을 결정했다. 그리고 선박의 사고기록에 대한 통계분석 결과, 인적과실에 의한 사고원인 비율 ${\gamma}_H$와 외적과실에 의한 사고원인 비율 ${\gamma}_B$은 0.517(51.7%)과 0.483(48.3%)로 나타났다. $\upsilon$의 상관계수는 95%(p < 0.05) 신뢰구간에서 유의함을 확인하였고, 각 갑판사관의 위기수준 RL의 정규 확률분포 분석으로부터 HEM의 타당성을 검토했다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.115-122
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• 2006

Objectives : This study was conducted to examine the relationships of the several socioeconomic position indicators with the mortality risk in a representative longitudinal study of South Korea. Methods : The 1998 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey was conducted on a cross-sectional probability sample of South Korean households, and it contained unique 13-digit personal identification numbers that were linked to the data on mortality from the National Statistical Office of Korea. Of 5,607 males and females, 264 died between 1999 and 2003. Cox's regression was used to estimate the relative risks (RR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) of mortality. Results: Socioeconomic differences in mortality were observed after adjustments were made for gender and age. Compared with those people having college or higher education, those people without any formal education had a greater mortality risk (RR=2.21, 95% CI=1.12-4.40). The mortality risk among manual workers was significantly greater than that for the non-manual workers (RR=2.73, 95% CI=1.47-5.06). A non-standard employment status was also associated with an increase in mortality: temporary or daily workers had a greater mortality risk than did the full-time workers (RR=3.01, 95% CI=1.50-6.03). The mortality risk for the low occupational class was 3.06 times greater than that of the high and middle occupational classes (95% CI=1.75-5.36). In addition, graded mortality differences according to equivalized monthly household income were found. A reduction of monthly household income by 500 thousand Korean Won (about 400 US dollars) was related with a 20% excess risk of mortality. Self-reported poor living standards were also associated with an increased risk of mortality. Those without health insurance had a 3.63 times greater risk of mortality than the insured (95% CI=1.61-8.19). Conclusions: This study showed the socioeconomic differentials in mortality in a national longitudinal study of South Korea. The existence of socioeconomic mortality inequalities requires increased social discussion on social policies in Korean society. Furthermore, the mechanisms for the socioeconomic inequalities of mortality need to be explored in future studies.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.585-595
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• 2017

본 연구는 정서기반 학습동기향상 프로그램이 전문대학생의 학습동기와 사회적 지지에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 알아보는데 목적이 있다. 개발된 최종 프로그램은 학습동기 I, 학습코칭, 학습동기 II로 총 12회기로 구성되어 있으며, 각 회기마다 자기평가 및 성찰일지를 작성하여 성찰 시간을 갖도록 진행하였다. 연구대상은 G시 소재 K전문대학 재학생들 중 2016학년도 1학기 심리학 관련 교양 교과목을 수강한 공학계열 재학생 38명으로, 실험집단 19명과 통제집단 19명을 비확률 표본 추출에 의거 배치하였다. 실험집단에는 정서기반 학습동기향상 프로그램을 주 강사 1명과 보조 강사 1명 총 2명의 강사로 한 주에 1회기씩 총 12회기가 실시되었고, 자료 분석을 위하여 독립표본 t-검증, 대응표본 t-검증, 회기별 소감문 분석이 실시되었다. 연구결과는 첫째, 정서기반 학습동기 향상 프로그램에 참여한 실험집단은 통제집단에 비하여 학습동기와 하위요인 자신감, 만족감에 유의미한 차이가 있었다. 둘째, 정서기반 학습동기 향상 프로그램에 참여한 실험집단은 통제집단에 비하여 사회적 지지에서는 통계적으로 유의미한 차이가 나타나지 않았다. 참여 학생들의 소감문 분석에서는 본 프로그램이 학습동기와 사회적 지지에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 본 연구결과에 대한 논의 및 함의를 기술하였다.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제35권5_1호
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• pp.751-761
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• 2019

한반도 주변에는 백두산, 아소산, 사쿠라지마산, 키카이산 등이 분포하고 있으며 최근 백두산의 분화 징후가 급증하고 있어 겨울철 분화 시 계절풍에 따라 화산재가 유입될 수 있는 피해가 우려되고 있다. 따라서 화산재 확산 및 피해에 대한 조사 및 대책에 대한 구체적인 절차가 필요하지만 우리나라 국가법령정보센터에서 제시하는 화산재 주의보 및 경보는 '피해가 예상될 때'와 '심각한 피해가 예상될 때'로 기준이 모호하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 피해발생 임계치를 분석하고 국외 피해사례를 국내에 적용하기 위하여, 공신력있는 공공기관의 국내 공간정보 구축 현황 조사를 수행하였다. 국외 화산재 피해 조사 결과 각 국가의 생활 형태나 수입원에 따라 피해사례가 자세히 작성된 부분이 상이하였다. 따라서 국외 화산재 피해 사례를 국내에 집적으로 적용하는 것이 아니라, 국내의 사회환경 및 자연환경의 특징을 반영한 공간정보 분석을 수행하였고 우리나라 화산재 피해발생시 고려해야 할 매체를 선정하였다. 최종적으로 국내 화산재 피해내역은 보건, 주거, 도로, 철도, 항공, 전력, 수도, 농업, 축산, 산림 그리고 토양으로 분류하는 것이 적합할 것으로 사료된다. 본 연구는 국내외 화산재 피해가 발생했을 경우 공신력 있는 공간정보를 활용해 피해 항목을 정리 했다는 것에 의미가 있으며, 향후 우리나라에 최적화된 화산재 경보 수립할 때 본 연구에서 조사한 국외 화산재 피해사례 및 국내 공간정보구축 현황은 정책수립에 도움이 될 것이다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.85-98
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• 1987

중대사고시 LMFBR의 에어로졸(aerosol) 동특성을 살피기 위해 전산코드인 MCAD (Multicomponent Aerosol Dynamics)가 개발되었다. 사고경과에 따른 두 방사능원의 상대적인 충돌확률을 적용하여 에어로졸계를 모사할 수 있다. Brownian 확산과 중력작용에 의한 결합 및 제거과정을 고려했으며, 입자형태를 묘사하기 위해 밀도보정과 형태요소(shape factor)를 동시에 고려하였다. ORNL의 NSPP-300 계열 실험자료와 기존의 코드를MCAD의 입증에 이용하였다. 그 결과 MCAD의 계산치와 실험치 및 기존의 코드 계산값이 일치함을 보여준다. 여러 입력자료의 불화실한 값들을 정의하고, 그들값의 한계로 설정하기 위하여 불확실성 및 민감도해석을 수행하였다. 14개의 입력자료를 선택하여 실험계획법과 Latin hypercube sampling에 의한 입력자료를 조합하여 그 회귀 (regression) 정도를 반응표면 계획법(Response surface method)에 의해 구하였다. 각 변수들의 중요성 및 시간경과에 따른 그들의 상대적인 등위를 결정하기 위하여 단계식 회귀방법 (Stepwise regression method)을 고려했다. LHS에 의한 회귀모형에 Monte Carlo Method를 적용하여 계산값 및 변수들에의 신뢰도를 향상시켰다.

• 동의신경정신과학회지
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.71-82
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• 2023

Objectives: The existing reductionist approach has not reached complete understanding of the cause of schizophrenia. The objective of this study was to investigate yin-yang and five-element characteristics reflected on four time pillars of birth of patients with schizophrenia through comparison with the general population in the perspective of consilience-based holistic approach. Methods: This study was conducted using a random sequential recruitment method for the general population and individuals with schizophrenia aged 18 to 64 based on the exact date and time of birth using structured questionnaires. Relative positional relations of yin-yang and five-element with day master were primarily examined. In addition, the strength of day master with a score range of 0~100 points was assessed through operational score allocation. Results: Of 591 participants, 576 (346: general population, 230: individuals with schizophrenia) were analyzed. Between-group analyses showed no significant difference in the distribution of types of day master (χ²=10.41, df=9, p=0.318). However, significant between-group differences were shown in the distribution of the strength of day master (t=2.14, p=0.032) and frequency of restraining month branch (χ²=5.23, df=1, p=0.022). In logistic regression analysis, 10-point increase on the strength of day master decreased the probability of onset of schizophrenia over the age of 30 by 29.6% (p=0.002; 95% confidence interval, 0.566~0.876). Conclusions: Findings in this study suggest that four time pillars of birth might be associated with schizophrenia through yin-yang and five-element theory and synchronicity principle, implicating the plausibility of consilience-based holistic approach in the determination of risk factors or cause of schizophrenia.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• 제24권9호
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• pp.860-870
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• 2023

Objective: The intra-parotid facial nerve (FN) can be visualized using three-dimensional double-echo steady-state water-excitation sequence magnetic resonance imaging (3D-DESS-WE-MRI). However, the clinical impact of FN imaging using 3D-DESS-WE-MRI before parotidectomy has not yet been explored. We compared the clinical outcomes of parotidectomy in patients with and without preoperative 3D-DESS-WE-MRI. Materials and Methods: This prospective, non-randomized, single-institution study included 296 adult patients who underwent parotidectomy for parotid tumors, excluding superficial and mobile tumors. Preoperative evaluation with 3D-DESS-WE-MRI was performed in 122 patients, and not performed in 174 patients. FN visibility and tumor location relative to FN on 3D-DESS-WE-MRI were evaluated in 120 patients. Rates of FN palsy (FNP) and operation times were compared between patients with and without 3D-DESS-WE-MRI; propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) were used to adjust for surgical and tumor factors. Results: The main trunk, temporofacial branch, and cervicofacial branch of the intra-parotid FN were identified using 3D-DESS-WE-MRI in approximately 97.5% (117/120), 44.2% (53/120), and 25.0% (30/120) of cases, respectively. The tumor location relative to FN, as assessed on magnetic resonance imaging, concurred with surgical findings in 90.8% (109/120) of cases. Rates of temporary and permanent FNP did not vary between patients with and without 3D-DESS-WE-MRI according to PSM (odds ratio, 2.29 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.64-8.25] and 2.02 [95% CI: 0.32-12.90], respectively) and IPTW (odds ratio, 1.76 [95% CI: 0.19-16.75] and 1.94 [95% CI: 0.20-18.49], respectively). Conversely, operation time for surgical identification of FN was significantly shorter with 3D-DESS-WE-MRI (median, 25 vs. 35 min for PSM and 25 vs. 30 min for IPTW, P < 0.001). Conclusion: Preoperative FN imaging with 3D-DESS-WE-MRI facilitated anatomical identification of FN and its relationship to the tumor during parotidectomy. This modality reduced operation time for FN identification, but did not significantly affect postoperative FNP rates.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• 제24권12호
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• pp.1284-1292
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• 2023

Objective: We investigated the impacts of computed tomography (CT) added to ultrasound (US) for preoperative evaluation of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) on staging, surgical extent, and postsurgical survival. Materials and Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent surgery for PTC between January 2015 and December 2015 were retrospectively identified. Of them, 584 had undergone preoperative additional thyroid CT imaging (CT + US group), and 859 had not (US group). Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and propensity score matching (PSM) were used to adjust for 14 variables and balance the two groups. Changes in nodal staging and surgical extent caused by CT were recorded. The recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival after surgery were compared between the two groups. Results: In the CT + US group, discordant nodal staging results between CT and US were observed in 94 of 584 patients (16.1%). Of them, CT accurately diagnosed nodal staging in 54 patients (57.4%), while the US provided incorrect nodal staging. Ten patients (1.7%) had a change in the extent of surgery based on CT findings. Postsurgical recurrence developed in 3.6% (31 of 859) of the CT + US group and 2.9% (17 of 584) of the US group during the median follow-up of 59 months. After adjustment using IPTW (580 vs. 861 patients), the CT + US group showed significantly higher recurrence-free survival rates than the US group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.52 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.29-0.96]; P = 0.037). PSM analysis (535 patients in each group) showed similar HR without statistical significance (HR, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.31-1.17]; P = 0.134). For distant metastasis-free survival, HRs after IPTW and PSM were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.17-3.36; P = 0.71) and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.20-3.80; P = 0.851), respectively. Conclusion: The addition of CT imaging for preoperative evaluation changed nodal staging and surgical extent and might improve recurrence-free survival in patients with PTC.