• Title/Summary/Keyword: confidence probability

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Standardization for basic association measures in association rule mining (연관 규칙 마이닝에서의 평가기준 표준화 방안)

  • Park, Hee-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.891-899
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    • 2010
  • Association rule is the technique to represent the relationship between two or more items by numerical representing for the relevance of each item in vast amounts of databases, and is most being used in data mining. The basic thresholds for association rule are support, confidence, and lift. these are used to generate the association rules. We need standardization of lift because the range of lift value is different from that of support and confidence. And also we need standardization of support and confidence to compare objectively association level of antecedent variables for one descendant variable. In this paper we propose a method for standardization of association thresholds considering marginal probability for each item to grasp objectively and exactly association level, check the conditions for association criteria and then compare association thresholds with standardized association thresholds using some concrete examples.

Factors Related with the Intention of Smoking Abstinence among Elementary Students in a Large City (일부 대도시 초등학생의 금연의지와의 관련 요인)

  • Park, Soon-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify the factors related with the intention of smoking abstinence among elementary students in a metropolitan city in Korea. Methods: All the elementary schools in the city were stratified by region, and then schools as a primary sampling units (PSU) were selected by probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling. One class per grade was sampled randomly from 5th and 6th grade in the sampled schools from October to December in 2004. The students completed a standardized self-administered questionnaire anonymously. A total number of 1,712 respondents who did not smoke was included in the final analysis. The dependent variable was an intention of smoking in the future, and it was dichotomized into 'absolutely confident in smoking abstinence' and 'others'. The risk of non-absolute confidence in smoking abstinence was calculated with simple and multiple logistic regression, which were conducted with STATA 9.0 by a design-based analysis considering strata variable, PSU, and sampling weight. Results: In the final model of multiple logistic regression analysis, those who were more likely to have non-absolute confidence in smoking abstinence were male students (OR=2.66, p<0.001); barely attending religious services (OR=3.32, p=0.002) or having no religion (OR=1.95, p=0.027); exposure to environmental tobacco smoke outside home 1${\sim}$2 days per week (OR=1.60, p=0.013); having friends who smoked (OR=1.93, p=0.011); non-absolute confidence in refusing to smoke (OR=5.35, p<0.001); having relatively less negative attitude (OR=2.88, p<0.001), positive attitude (OR=2.35, p<0.001), and indifference (OR=4.05, p=0.034) toward peer smoking; not good relationship with mother (OR=1.52, p=0.016). Conclusion: The factors related with non-absolute confidence in smoking abstinence were coincided with those of smoking among children. The results of this study suggest the smoking prevention education should be applied to the children more actively, especially who are not confident in smoking abstinence in the future.

Inelastic Energy Absorption Factor for the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of NPP Containment Structure (확률론적 지진위험도 분석을 위한 원전 격납건물의 비탄성에너지 흡수계수 평가)

  • 최인길;서정문
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.5 no.5
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2001
  • In order to assure the safety of NPP structures, margin of safety or conservatism is incorporated in each design step. Seismic risk evaluation of NPP structures is performed based on the realistic capacity and response of structure eliminated the safety margin and conservatism. In this study, the comparative study on the various evaluation methods of the inelastic energy absorption capacity was performed. The inelastic energy absorption capacity due to the nonlinear behavior of structures has significant effect on the results of seismic probabilistic risk assessment. And the comparison study of the HCLPF(high confidence of low probability of failure) values according to the inelastic energy absorption factors was performed. As a conclusion, the inelastic energy absorption factor of NPP containment structure is estimated about 1.5~1.75. It is essential to estimate the nonlinear behavior of structure and its ductility factor correctly for the seismic risk assessment.

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A Study on Correlation of Saccharin QLFT and CNC QNFT for Respirators (호흡기보호구에 대한 Saccharin QLFT와 CNC QNFT간 상관성에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Don-Hee;Na, Myung Chai;Lee, Sang-Gon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.99-112
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    • 1997
  • A quantitative fit test, condensation nuclei counting(Portacount 8025, TSI), was performed concurrently with a qualitative fit test, sodium saccharin(FT-10, 3M) to evaluate FF values and to determine the correlation between two methods. Two brands of full facepieces, T, S and two brands of half masks, T, S, were fit tested, respectively, on 103 wearers one time. The FF values obtained by CNC QNFT were lognormally distributed. The FF values for T brand of respirators were statistically very much higher than those for S brand of respirators. For a full facepiece wearer combination having a $FF{\leq}100$, as determined by CNC QNFT, the point estimate of the probability of that combination not being rejected by the saccharin QLFT was found to be 0.09 with 90% confidence that this statistic is not expected to exceed 0.25. For a half mask wearer combination having a $FF{\leq}10$, as determined by CNC QNFT, the point estimate of the probability of that combination not being rejected by the saccharin QLFT was found to be 0.10 with 90%, confidence that this statistic is not expected to exceed 0.23. The uncertainty associated with each estimate, however, is large due to the small number of study subjects with inadequately fitting respirators. This result indicates that saccharin QLFT may be more suitable for adequately fitting respirators than inadequately fitting respirators.

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Earthquake risk assessment of concrete gravity dam by cumulative absolute velocity and response surface methodology

  • Cao, Anh-Tuan;Nahar, Tahmina Tasnim;Kim, Dookie;Choi, Byounghan
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.511-519
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    • 2019
  • The concrete gravity dam is one of the most important parts of the nation's infrastructure. Besides the benefits, the dam also has some potentially catastrophic disasters related to the life of citizens directly. During the lifetime of service, some degradations in a dam may occur as consequences of operating conditions, environmental aspects and deterioration in materials from natural causes, especially from dynamic loads. Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV) plays a key role to assess the operational condition of a structure under seismic hazard. In previous researches, CAV is normally used in Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) fields, but there are no particular criteria or studies that have been made on dam structure. This paper presents a method to calculate the limitation of CAV for the Bohyeonsan Dam in Korea, where the critical Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is estimated from twelve sets of selected earthquakes based on High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF). HCLPF point denotes 5% damage probability with 95% confidence level in the fragility curve, and the corresponding PGA expresses the crucial acceleration of this dam. For determining the status of the dam, a 2D finite element model is simulated by ABAQUS. At first, the dam's parameters are optimized by the Minitab tool using the method of Central Composite Design (CCD) for increasing model reliability. Then the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is used for updating the model and the optimization is implemented from the selected model parameters. Finally, the recorded response of the concrete gravity dam is compared against the results obtained from solving the numerical model for identifying the physical condition of the structure.

Damage states of yielding and collapse for elevated water tanks supported on RC frame staging

  • Lakhade, Suraj O.;Kumar, Ratnesh;Jaiswal, mprakash R.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.67 no.6
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    • pp.587-601
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    • 2018
  • Elevated water tanks are inverted pendulum type structures where drift limit is an important criterion for seismic design and performance evaluation. Explicit drift criteria for elevated water tanks are not available in the literature. In this study, probabilistic approach is used to determine maximum drift limit for damage state of yielding and damage state of collapse for the elevated water tanks supported on RC frame staging. The two damage states are defined using results of incremental dynamic analysis wherein a total of 2160 nonlinear time history analyses are performed using twelve artificial spectrum compatible ground motions. Analytical fragility curves are developed using two-parameter lognormal distribution. The maximum allowable drifts corresponding to yield and collapse level requirements are estimated for different tank capacities. Finally, a single fragility curve is developed which provides maximum drift values for the different probability of damage. Further, for rational consideration of the uncertainties in design, three confidence levels are selected and corresponding drift limits for damage states of yielding and collapse are proposed. These values of maximum drift can be used in performance-based seismic design for a particular damage state depending on the level of confidence.

Derivation of Optimal Design Flood by Gamma and Generalized Gamma Distribution Models(II) -On the Generalized Gamma Distribution Model- (Gamma 및 Generalized Gamma 분포 모형에 의한 적정 설계홍수량의 유도(II) -Generalized Gamma 분포모형을 중심으로-)

  • 이순혁;박명근;맹승진;정연수;류경선
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 1998
  • This study was conducted to derive optimal design floods by generalized gamma distribution model of the annual maximum series at eight watersheds along Geum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems. Design floods obtained by different methods for evaluation of parameters and for plotting positions in the generalized gamma distribution model were compared by the relative mean errors and graphical fit along with 95% confidence limits plotted on gamma probability paper. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Basic statistics and parameters were calculated by the generalized gamma distribution model using different methods for parameters. 2. Design floods according to the return periods were obtained by different methods for evaluation of parameters and for plotting positions in the generalized gamma distribution model. 3. It was found that design floods derived by sundry averages method for parameters and Cunnane method for plotting position in the generalized gamma distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by the other methods for parameters and for plotting positions from the viewpoint of relative mean errors. 4. Reliability of design floods derived by sundry averages method in the generalized gamma distribution was acknowledged within 95% confidence interval.

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Ichthyoplankton Detection Proportion and Margin of Error for the Scomber japonicus in Korean Coastal Seas

  • Kim, Sung;Cho, Hong-Yeon
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.73-84
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    • 2017
  • The probability distribution of ichthyoplankton is important for enhancing the precision of sampling while reducing unnecessary surveys. To estimate the ichthyoplankton detection proportion (IDP) and its margin of error (ME), the monitoring information of the chub mackerel's (Scomber japonicus) ichthyoplankton presence-absence sampling data has been were collected over approximately 30 years (from 1982 to 2011) in the Korean coastal seas. Based on the computed spatial distributions of the mackerel's IDP and ME, the confidence interval (CI) range, defined as 2 ME, decreases from approximately 80% to 40% as the sample size n increases from 4 to 24 and the ME is approximately 40% in the typical (seasonal survey) case n = 4 per year. The IDP and ME off Jeju Island are relatively high at the 0.5-degree smoothing level. After increasing the spatial smoothing level to 1.0-degree, the ME decreased, and the spatial distribution pattern also changed due to the over-smoothing effects. In this study, the 0.5-degree smoothing is more suitable for the distribution pattern than the 1.0-degree smoothing level. The area of the high IDP and the low ME on the mackerel's ichthyoplankton was similar to the estimated spawning ground in the Korean peninsula. This information could contribute to enhancing for the spawning ecology surveys.

Derivation of Optimal Design Flood by Gamma and Generalized Gamma Distribution Models(I) - On the Gamma Distribution Models - (Gamma 및 Generalized Gamma 분포 모형에 의한 적정 설계홍수량의 유도 (I) -Gamma 분포 모형을 중심으로-)

  • 이순혁;박명근;정연수;맹승진;류경식
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.83-95
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    • 1997
  • This study was conducted to derive optimal design floods by Gamma distribution models of the annual maximum series at eight watersheds along Geum , Yeong San and Seom Jin river Systems, Design floods obtained by different methods for evaluation of parameters and for plotting positions in the Gamma distribution models were compared by the relative mean errors and graphical fit along with 95% confidence interval plotted on Gamma probability paper. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1.Adequacy for the analysis of flood flow data used in this study was confirmed by the tests of Independence, Homogeneity and detection of Outliers. 2.Basic statistics and parameters were calculated by Gamma distribution models using Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. 3.It was found that design floods derived by the method of maximum likelihood and Hazen plotting position formular of two parameter Gamma distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by other methods for parameters and for plotting positions from the viewpoint of relative mean errors. 4.Reliability of derived design floods by both maximum likelihood and method of moments with two parameter Gamma distribution was acknowledged within 95% confidence interval.

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Learning Algorithm of Dynamic Threshold in Line Utilization based SARIMA model (SARIMA 모델을 기반으로 한 선로 이용률의 동적 임계값 학습 기법)

  • Cho, Kagn-Hong;Ahn, Seong-Jin;Chung, Jin-Wook
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.9C no.6
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    • pp.841-846
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    • 2002
  • We applies a seasonal ARIMA model to the timely forecasting in a line utilization and its confidence interval on the base of the past data of the line utilization that QoS of the network is greatly influenced by. And this paper proposes the learning algorithm of dynamic threshold in line utilization using the SARIMA model. We can find the proper dynamic threshold in timely line utilization on the various network environments and provide the confidence based on probability. Also, we have evaluated the validity of the proposed model and estimated the value of a proper threshold on real network. Network manager can overcome a shortcoming of original threshold method and maximize the performance of this algorithm.