• Title/Summary/Keyword: confidence probability

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Determinants of IPO Failure Risk and Price Response in Kosdaq (코스닥 상장 시 실패위험 결정요인과 주가반응에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sung-Bae;Nam, Sam-Hyun;Yi, Hwa-Deuk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • Recently, failure rates of Kosdaq IPO firms are increasing and their survival rates tend to be very low, and when these firms do fail, often times backed by a number of governmental financial supports, they may inflict severe financial damage to investors, let alone economy as a whole. To ensure investors' confidence in Kosdaq and foster promising and healthy businesses, it is necessary to precisely assess their intrinsic values and survivability. This study investigates what contributed to the failure of IPO firms and analyzed how these elements are factored into corresponding firms' stock returns. Failure risks are assessed at the time of IPO. This paper considers factors reflecting IPO characteristics, a firm's underwriter prestige, auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds. The study further went on to examine how, if at all, these failure risks involved during IPO led to post-IPO stock prices. Sample firms used in this study include 98 Kosdaq firms that have failed and 569 healthy firms that are classified into the same business categories, and Logit models are used in estimate the probability of failure. Empirical results indicate that auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds shown significant relevance to failure risks at the time of IPO. Of other variables, firm's size and ROA, previously deemed significantly related to failure risks, in fact do not show significant relevance to those risks, whereas financial leverage does. This illustrates the efficacy of a model that appropriately reflects the attributes of IPO firms. Also, even though R&D expenditures were believed to be value relevant by previous studies, this study reveals that R&D is not a significant factor related to failure risks. In examing the relation between failure risks and stock prices, this study finds that failure risks are negatively related to 1 or 2 year size-adjusted abnormal returns after IPO. The results of this study may provide useful knowledge for government regulatory officials in contemplating pertinent policy and for credit analysts in their proper evaluation of a firm's credit standing.

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Features of sample concepts in the probability and statistics chapters of Korean mathematics textbooks of grades 1-12 (초.중.고등학교 확률과 통계 단원에 나타난 표본개념에 대한 분석)

  • Lee, Young-Ha;Shin, Sou-Yeong
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.327-344
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    • 2011
  • This study is the first step for us toward improving high school students' capability of statistical inferences, such as obtaining and interpreting the confidence interval on the population mean that is currently learned in high school. We suggest 5 underlying concepts of 'discretion of contingency and inevitability', 'discretion of induction and deduction', 'likelihood principle', 'variability of a statistic' and 'statistical model', those are necessary to appreciate statistical inferences as a reliable arguing tools in spite of its occasional erroneous conclusions. We assume those 5 concepts above are to be gradually developing in their school periods and Korean mathematics textbooks of grades 1-12 were analyzed. Followings were found. For the right choice of solving methodology of the given problem, no elementary textbook but a few high school textbooks describe its difference between the contingent circumstance and the inevitable one. Formal definitions of population and sample are not introduced until high school grades, so that the developments of critical thoughts on the reliability of inductive reasoning could not be observed. On the contrary of it, strong emphasis lies on the calculation stuff of the sample data without any inference on the population prospective based upon the sample. Instead of the representative properties of a random sample, more emphasis lies on how to get a random sample. As a result of it, the fact that 'the random variability of the value of a statistic which is calculated from the sample ought to be inherited from the randomness of the sample' could neither be noticed nor be explained as well. No comparative descriptions on the statistical inferences against the mathematical(deductive) reasoning were found. Few explanations on the likelihood principle and its probabilistic applications in accordance with students' cognitive developmental growth were found. It was hard to find the explanation of a random variability of statistics and on the existence of its sampling distribution. It is worthwhile to explain it because, nevertheless obtaining the sampling distribution of a particular statistic, like a sample mean, is a very difficult job, mere noticing its existence may cause a drastic change of understanding in a statistical inference.

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Evaluation on the Accuracy of Targeting Error Correction Through the Application of Target Locating System in Robotic CyberKnife (로봇 사이버나이프에서 위치인식시스템을 이용한 Targeting Error값 보정의 정확성 평가)

  • Jeong, Young-Joon;Jung, Jae-Hong;Lim, Kwang-Chae;Cho, Eun-Ju
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The purpose is to evaluate the accuracy of correcting the targeting error through the Target Location System (TLS) for the location change error of the reference point which arises from the movement or motion of patient during the treatment using the CyberKnife. Materials and Methods: In this test, Gafchromic MD-55 film was inserted into the head and neck phantom to analyze the accuracy of the targeting, and then the 6 MV X-ray of CyberKnife (CyberKnife Robotic Radiosurgery System G4, Accuray, US) was irradiated. End to End (E2E) program was used to analyze the accuracy of targeting, which is provided by Accuray Corporation. To compute the error of the targeting, the test was carried out with the films that were irradiated 12 times by maintaining the distance within the rage of $0{\pm}0.2\;mm$ toward x, y, z from the reference point and maintaining the angle within the rage of $0{\pm}0.2^{\circ}$ toward roll, pitch, yaw, and then with the films which were irradiated 6 times by applying intentional movement. And the correlation in the average value of the reference film and the test film were analyzed through independent samples t-test. In addition, the consistency of dose distribution through gamma-index method (dose difference: 3%) was quantified, compared, and analyzed by varying the distance to agreement (DTA) to 1 mm, 1.5 mm, 2 mm, respectively. Results: E2E test result indicated that the average error of the reference film was 0.405 mm and the standard deviation was 0.069 mm. The average error of the test film was 0.413 mm with the standard deviation of 0.121 mm. The result of independent sampling t-test for both averages showed that the significant probability was P=0.836 (confidence level: 95%). Besides, by comparing the consistency of dose distribution of DTA through 1 mm, 1.5 mm, 2 mm, it was found that the average dose distribution of axial film was 95.04%, 97.56%, 98.13%, respectively in 3,314 locations of the reference film, consistent with the average dose distribution of sagittal film that was 95.47%, 97.68%, 98.47%, respectively. By comparing with the test film, it was found that the average dose distribution of axial film was 96.38%, 97.57%, 98.04%, respectively, at 3,323 locations, consistent with the average dose distribution of sagittal film which was 95.50%, 97.87%, 98.36%, respectively. Conclusion: Robotic CyberKnife traces and complements in real time the error in the location change of the reference point caused by the motion or movement of patient during the treatment and provides the accuracy with the consistency of over 95% dose distribution and the targeting error below 1 mm.

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The Relationship between the Cognitive Impairment and Mortality in the Rural Elderly (농촌지역 노인들의 인지기능 장애와 사망과의 관련성)

  • Sun, Byeong-Hwan;Park, Kyeong-Soo;Na, Baeg-Ju;Park, Yo-Seop;Nam, Hae-Sung;Shin, Jun-Ho;Sohn, Seok-Joon;Rhee, Jung-Ae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.3 s.58
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    • pp.630-642
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    • 1997
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the mortality risk associated with cognitive impairment among the rural elderly. The subjective of study was 558 of 'A Study on the Depression and Cognitive Impairment in the Rural Elderly' of Jung Ae Rhee and Hyang Gyun Jung's study(1993). Cognitive impairment and other social and health factors were assessed in 558 elderly rural community residents. For this study, a Korean version of the Mini-Mental State Examination(MMSEK) was used as a global indicator of cognitive functioning. And mortality risk factors for each cognitive impairment subgroup were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. At baseline 22.6% of the sample were mildly impaired and 14.2% were severely impaired. As the age increased, the cognitive function was more impaired. Sexual difference was existed in the cognitive function level. Also the variables such as smoking habits, physical disorders had the significant relationship with cognitive function impairment. Across a 3-year observation period the mortality rate was 8.5% for the cognitively unimpaired, 11.1% for the mildly impaired, and 16.5% for the severly impaired respendents. And the survival probability was .92 for the cognitively unimpaired, .90 for the mildly impaired, and .86 for the severly impaired respondents. Compared to survival curve for the cognitively unimpaired group, each survival curve for the mildly and the severely impaired group was not significantly different. When adjustments models were not made for the effects of other health and social covariates, each hazard ratio of death of mildly and severely impaired persons was not significantly different as compared with the cognitively unimpaired. But, as MMSEK score increased, significantly hazard ratio of death decreased. Employing Cox univariate proportional hazards model, statistically other significant variables were age, monthly income, smoking habits, physical disorders. Also when adjustments were made for the effects of other health and social covariates, there was no difference in hazard ratio of death between those with severe or mild impairment and unimpaired persons. And as MMSEK score increased, significantly hazard ratio of death did not decrease. Employing Cox multivariate proportional hazards model, statistically other significant variables were age, monthly income, physical disorders. Employing Cox multivariate proportional hazards model by sex, at men and women statistically significant variable was only age. For both men and women, also cognitive impairment was not a significant risk factor. Other investigators have found that cognitive impairment is a significant predictor of mortality. But we didn't find that it is a significant predictor of mortality. Even though the conclusions of our study were not related to cognitive impairment and mortality, early detection of impaired cognition and attention to associated health problems could improve the quality of life of these older adults and perhaps extend their survival.

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