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인공지능 기술에 관한 가트너 하이프사이클의 네트워크 집단구조 특성 및 확산패턴에 관한 연구 (Structural features and Diffusion Patterns of Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence using Social Network analysis)

  • 신선아;강주영
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.107-129
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    • 2022
  • 기술경쟁이 심화되고 있는 오늘날 신기술에 대한 선도적 위치의 선점이 중요하다. 선도적 위치의 선점과 적정시점에 기술 획득·관리를 위해 이해관계자들은 지속적으로 기술에 대한 탐색활동을 수행한다. 이를 위한 참고 자료로서 가트너 하이프 사이클(Gartner Hype Cycle)은 중요한 의미가 있다. 하이프 사이클은 기술수명주기(S-curve)와 하이프 수준(Hype Level)을 결합하여 새로운 기술에 대한 대중의 기대감을 시간의 흐름에 따라 나타낸 그래프이다. 새로운 기술에 대한 기대는 기술사업화뿐만 아니라 연구개발 투자의 정당성, 투자유치를 위한 기회의 발판이 된다는 점에서 연구개발 담당자 및 기술투자자의 관심이 높다. 그러나 산업계의 높은 관심에 비해 실증분석을 시도한 선행연구는 다양하지 못하다. 선행문헌 분석결과 데이터 종류(뉴스, 논문, 주가지수, 검색 트래픽 등)나 분석방법은 한정적이었다. 이에 본 연구에서는 확산의 주요한 채널이 되어가고 있는 소셜네트워크서비스의 데이터를 활용하여 'Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2021'의 단계별 기술들에 대한 집단구조(커뮤니티)의 특성과 커뮤니티 간 정보 확산패턴을 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위해 컴포넌트 응집규모(Component Cohesion Size)를 통해 각 단계별 구조적 특성과 연결중심화(Degree Centralization)와 밀도(Density)를 통해 확산의 방식을 확인하였다. 연구결과 기술을 수용하는 단계별 집단들의 커뮤니케이션 활동이 시간이 지날 수록 분절이 커지며 밀도 역시 감소함을 확인하였다. 또한 새로운 기술에 대한 관심을 촉발하는 혁신태동기 집단의 경우 정보확산을 촉발하는 외향연결(Out-degree) 중심화 지수가 높았으며, 이후의 단계는 정보를 수용하는 내향연결(In-degree) 중심화 지수가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 해당 연구를 통해 하이프 사이클에 관한 이론적 기초를 제공할 것이다. 또한 인공지능기술에 대한 기술관심집단들의 기대감을 반영한 정보확산의 특성과 패턴을 소셜데이터를 통해 분석함으로써 기업의 기술투자 의사결정에 새로운 시각을 제공할 것이다.

항공기(航空機) 사고조사제도(事故調査制度)에 관한 연구(硏究) (A Study on the System of Aircraft Investigation)

  • 김두환
    • 항공우주정책ㆍ법학회지
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    • 제9권
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    • pp.85-143
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    • 1997
  • The main purpose of the investigation of an accident caused by aircraft is to be prevented the sudden and casual accidents caused by wilful misconduct and fault from pilots, air traffic controllers, hijack, trouble of engine and machinery of aircraft, turbulence during the bad weather, collision between birds and aircraft, near miss flight by aircrafts etc. It is not the purpose of this activity to apportion blame or liability for offender of aircraft accidents. Accidents to aircraft, especially those involving the general public and their property, are a matter of great concern to the aviation community. The system of international regulation exists to improve safety and minimize, as far as possible, the risk of accidents but when they do occur there is a web of systems and procedures to investigate and respond to them. I would like to trace the general line of regulation from an international source in the Chicago Convention of 1944. Article 26 of the Convention lays down the basic principle for the investigation of the aircraft accident. Where there has been an accident to an aircraft of a contracting state which occurs in the territory of another contracting state and which involves death or serious injury or indicates serious technical defect in the aircraft or air navigation facilities, the state in which the accident occurs must institute an inquiry into the circumstances of the accident. That inquiry will be in accordance, in so far as its law permits, with the procedure which may be recommended from time to time by the International Civil Aviation Organization ICAO). There are very general provisions but they state two essential principles: first, in certain circumstances there must be an investigation, and second, who is to be responsible for undertaking that investigation. The latter is an important point to establish otherwise there could be at least two states claiming jurisdiction on the inquiry. The Chicago Convention also provides that the state where the aircraft is registered is to be given the opportunity to appoint observers to be present at the inquiry and the state holding the inquiry must communicate the report and findings in the matter to that other state. It is worth noting that the Chicago Convention (Article 25) also makes provision for assisting aircraft in distress. Each contracting state undertakes to provide such measures of assistance to aircraft in distress in its territory as it may find practicable and to permit (subject to control by its own authorities) the owner of the aircraft or authorities of the state in which the aircraft is registered, to provide such measures of assistance as may be necessitated by circumstances. Significantly, the undertaking can only be given by contracting state but the duty to provide assistance is not limited to aircraft registered in another contracting state, but presumably any aircraft in distress in the territory of the contracting state. Finally, the Convention envisages further regulations (normally to be produced under the auspices of ICAO). In this case the Convention provides that each contracting state, when undertaking a search for missing aircraft, will collaborate in co-ordinated measures which may be recommended from time to time pursuant to the Convention. Since 1944 further international regulations relating to safety and investigation of accidents have been made, both pursuant to Chicago Convention and, in particular, through the vehicle of the ICAO which has, for example, set up an accident and reporting system. By requiring the reporting of certain accidents and incidents it is building up an information service for the benefit of member states. However, Chicago Convention provides that each contracting state undertakes collaborate in securing the highest practicable degree of uniformity in regulations, standards, procedures and organization in relation to aircraft, personnel, airways and auxiliary services in all matters in which such uniformity will facilitate and improve air navigation. To this end, ICAO is to adopt and amend from time to time, as may be necessary, international standards and recommended practices and procedures dealing with, among other things, aircraft in distress and investigation of accidents. Standards and Recommended Practices for Aircraft Accident Injuries were first adopted by the ICAO Council on 11 April 1951 pursuant to Article 37 of the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation and were designated as Annex 13 to the Convention. The Standards Recommended Practices were based on Recommendations of the Accident Investigation Division at its first Session in February 1946 which were further developed at the Second Session of the Division in February 1947. The 2nd Edition (1966), 3rd Edition, (1973), 4th Edition (1976), 5th Edition (1979), 6th Edition (1981), 7th Edition (1988), 8th Edition (1992) of the Annex 13 (Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation) of the Chicago Convention was amended eight times by the ICAO Council since 1966. Annex 13 sets out in detail the international standards and recommended practices to be adopted by contracting states in dealing with a serious accident to an aircraft of a contracting state occurring in the territory of another contracting state, known as the state of occurrence. It provides, principally, that the state in which the aircraft is registered is to be given the opportunity to appoint an accredited representative to be present at the inquiry conducted by the state in which the serious aircraft accident occurs. Article 26 of the Chicago Convention does not indicate what the accredited representative is to do but Annex 13 amplifies his rights and duties. In particular, the accredited representative participates in the inquiry by visiting the scene of the accident, examining the wreckage, questioning witnesses, having full access to all relevant evidence, receiving copies of all pertinent documents and making submissions in respect of the various elements of the inquiry. The main shortcomings of the present system for aircraft accident investigation are that some contracting sates are not applying Annex 13 within its express terms, although they are contracting states. Further, and much more important in practice, there are many countries which apply the letter of Annex 13 in such a way as to sterilise its spirit. This appears to be due to a number of causes often found in combination. Firstly, the requirements of the local law and of the local procedures are interpreted and applied so as preclude a more efficient investigation under Annex 13 in favour of a legalistic and sterile interpretation of its terms. Sometimes this results from a distrust of the motives of persons and bodies wishing to participate or from commercial or related to matters of liability and bodies. These may be political, commercial or related to matters of liability and insurance. Secondly, there is said to be a conscious desire to conduct the investigation in some contracting states in such a way as to absolve from any possibility of blame the authorities or nationals, whether manufacturers, operators or air traffic controllers, of the country in which the inquiry is held. The EEC has also had an input into accidents and investigations. In particular, a directive was issued in December 1980 encouraging the uniformity of standards within the EEC by means of joint co-operation of accident investigation. The sharing of and assisting with technical facilities and information was considered an important means of achieving these goals. It has since been proposed that a European accident investigation committee should be set up by the EEC (Council Directive 80/1266 of 1 December 1980). After I would like to introduce the summary of the legislation examples and system for aircraft accidents investigation of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, Swiss, New Zealand and Japan, and I am going to mention the present system, regulations and aviation act for the aircraft accident investigation in Korea. Furthermore I would like to point out the shortcomings of the present system and regulations and aviation act for the aircraft accident investigation and then I will suggest my personal opinion on the new and dramatic innovation on the system for aircraft accident investigation in Korea. I propose that it is necessary and desirable for us to make a new legislation or to revise the existing aviation act in order to establish the standing and independent Committee of Aircraft Accident Investigation under the Korean Government.

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