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Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

Development of Analytical Method for Detection of Fungicide Validamycin A Residues in Agricultural Products Using LC-MS/MS (LC-MS/MS를 이용한 농산물 중 살균제 Validamycin A의 시험법 개발)

  • Park, Ji-Su;Do, Jung-Ah;Lee, Han Sol;Park, Shin-min;Cho, Sung Min;Shin, Hye-Sun;Jang, Dong Eun;Cho, Myong-Shik;Jung, Yong-hyun;Lee, Kangbong
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.22-29
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    • 2019
  • Validamycin A is an aminoglycoside fungicide produced by Streptomyces hygroscopicus that inhibits trehalase. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for detecting validamycin A in agricultural samples to establish MRL values for use in Korea. The validamycin A residues in samples were extracted using methanol/water (50/50, v/v) and purified with a hydrophilic-lipophilic balance (HLB) cartridges. The analyte was quantified and confirmed by liquid chromatograph-tandem mass spectrometer (LC-MS/MS) in positive ion mode using multiple reaction monitoring (MRM). Matrix-matched calibration curves were linear over the calibration ranges (0.005~0.5 ng) into a blank extract with $R^2$ > 0.99. The limits of detection and quantification were 0.005 and 0.01 mg/kg, respectively. For validation validamycin A, recovery studies were carried out three different concentration levels (LOQ, $LOQ{\times}10$, $LOQ{\times}50$, n = 5) with five replicates at each level. The average recovery range was from 72.5~118.3%, with relative standard deviation (RSD) less than 10.3%. All values were consistent with the criteria ranges requested in the Codex guidelines (CAC/GL 40-1993, 2003) and the NIFDS (National Institute of Food and Drug Safety) guideline (2016). Therefore, the proposed analytical method is accurate, effective and sensitive for validamycin A determination in agricultural commodities.

A Study on the Present Condition and Improvement of Cultural Heritage Management in Seoul - Based on the Results of Regular Surveys (2016~2018) - (서울특별시 지정문화재 관리 현황 진단 및 개선방안 연구 - 정기조사(2016~2018) 결과를 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Hong-seok;Suh, Hyun-jung;Kim, Ye-rin;Kim, Dong-cheon
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.80-105
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    • 2019
  • With the increasing complexity and irregularity of disaster types, the need for cultural asset preservation and management from a proactive perspective has increased as a number of cultural properties have been destroyed and damaged by various natural and humanistic factors. In consideration of these circumstances, the Cultural Heritage Administration enacted an Act in December 2005 to enforce the regular commission of surveys for the systematic preservation and management of cultural assets, and through a recent revision of this Act, the investigation cycle has been reduced from five to three years, and the object of regular inspections has been expanded to cover registered cultural properties. According to the ordinance, a periodic survey of city- or province-designated heritage is to be carried out mainly by metropolitan and provincial governments. The Seoul Metropolitan Government prepared a legal basis for commissioning regular surveys under the Seoul Special City Cultural Properties Protection Ordinance 2008 and, in recognition of the importance of preventive management due to the large number of cultural assets located in the city center and the high demand for visits, conducted regular surveys of the entire city-designated cultural assets from 2016 to 2018. Upon the first survey being completed, it was considered necessary to review the policy effectiveness of the system and to conduct a comprehensive review of the results of the regular surveys that had been carried out to enhance the management of cultural assets. Therefore, the present study examined the comprehensive management status of the cultural assets designated by the Seoul Metropolitan Government for three years (2016-2018), assessing the performance and identifying limitations. Additionally, ways to improve it were sought, and a DB establishment plan for the establishment of an integrated management system under the auspices of the Seoul Metropolitan Government was proposed. Specifically, survey forms were administered under the Guidelines for the Operation of Periodic Surveys of National Designated Cultural Assets; however, the types of survey forms were reclassified and further subdivided in consideration of the characteristics of the designated cultural assets, and manuals were developed for consistent and specific information technologies in respect of the scope and manner of the survey. Based on this analysis, it was confirmed that 401 cases (77.0%) out of 521 cases were generally well preserved; however, 102 cases (19.6%) were found to require special measures such as attention, precision diagnosis, and repair. Meanwhile, there were 18 cases (3.4%) of unsurveyed cultural assets. These were inaccessible to the investigation at this time due to reasons such as unknown location or closure to the public. Regarding the specific types of cultural assets, among a total of 171 cultural real estate properties, 63 cases (36.8%) of structural damage were caused by the failure and elimination of members, and 73 cases (42.7%) of surface area damage were the result of biological damage. Almost all plants and geological earth and scenic spots were well preserved. In the case of movable cultural assets, 25 cases (7.1%) among 350 cases were found to have changed location, and structural damage and surface area damage was found according to specific material properties, excluding ceramics. In particular, papers, textiles, and leather goods, with material properties that are vulnerable to damage, were found to have greater damage than those of other materials because they were owned and managed by individuals and temples. Thus, it has been confirmed that more proactive management is needed. Accordingly, an action plan for the comprehensive preservation and management status check shall be developed according to management status and urgency, and the project promotion plan and the focus management target should be selected and managed first. In particular, concerning movable cultural assets, there have been some cases in which new locations have gone unreported after changes in ownership (management); therefore, a new system is required to strengthen the obligation to report changes in ownership (management) or location. Based on the current status diagnosis and improvement measures, it is expected that the foundation of a proactive and efficient cultural asset management system can be realized through the establishment of an effective mid- to long-term database of the integrated management system pursued by the Seoul Metropolitan Government.

Development and Validation of the Analytical Method for Oxytetracycline in Agricultural Products using QuEChERS and LC-MS/MS (QuEChERS법 및 LC-MS/MS를 이용한 농산물 중 Oxytetracycline의 잔류시험법 개발 및 검증)

  • Cho, Sung Min;Do, Jung-Ah;Lee, Han Sol;Park, Ji-Su;Shin, Hye-Sun;Jang, Dong Eun;Cho, Myong-Shik;Jung, ong-hyun;Lee, Kangbong
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.227-234
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    • 2019
  • An analytical method was developed for the determination of oxytetracycline in agricultural products using the QuEChERS (Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and Safe) method by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). After the samples were extracted with methanol, the extracts were adjusted to pH 4 by formic acid and sodium chloride was added to remove water. Dispersive solid phase extraction (d-SPE) cleanup was carried out using $MgSO_4$ (anhydrous magnesium sulfate), PSA (primary secondary amine), $C_{18}$ (octadecyl) and GCB (graphitized carbon black). The analytes were quantified and confirmed with LC-MS/MS using ESI (electrospray ionization) in positive ion MRM (multiple reaction monitoring) mode. The matrix-matched calibration curves were constructed using six levels ($0.001{\sim}0.25{\mu}g/mL$) and coefficient of determination ($r^2$) was above 0.99. Recovery results at three concentrations (LOQ, $10{\times}LOQ$, and $50{\times}LOQ$, n=5) were from 80.0 to 108.2% with relative standard deviations (RSDs) less than of 11.4%. For inter-laboratory validation, the average recovery was in the range of 83.5~103.2% and the coefficient of variation (CV) was below 14.1%. All results satisfied the criteria ranges requested in the Codex guidelines (CAC/GL 40-1993, 2003) and the Food Safety Evaluation Department guidelines (2016). The proposed analytical method was accurate, effective and sensitive for oxytetracycline determination in agricultural commodities. This study could be useful for safety management of oxytetracycline residues in agricultural products.

Development of a Simultaneous Analytical Method for Determination of Insecticide Broflanilide and Its Metabolite Residues in Agricultural Products Using LC-MS/MS (LC-MS/MS를 이용한 농산물 중 살충제 Broflanilide 및 대사물질 동시시험법 개발)

  • Park, Ji-Su;Do, Jung-Ah;Lee, Han Sol;Park, Shin-min;Cho, Sung Min;Kim, Ji-Young;Shin, Hye-Sun;Jang, Dong Eun;Jung, Yong-hyun;Lee, Kangbong
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.124-134
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    • 2019
  • An analytical method was developed for the determination of broflanilide and its metabolites in agricultural products. Sample preparation was conducted using the QuEChERS (Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and Safe) method and LC-MS/MS (liquid chromatograph-tandem mass spectrometer). The analytes were extracted with acetonitrile and cleaned up using d-SPE (dispersive solid phase extraction) sorbents such as anhydrous magnesium sulfate, primary secondary amine (PSA) and octadecyl ($C_{18}$). The limit of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) were 0.004 and 0.01 mg/kg, respectively. The recovery results for broflanilide, DM-8007 and S(PFP-OH)-8007 ranged between 90.7 to 113.7%, 88.2 to 109.7% and 79.8 to 97.8% at different concentration levels (LOQ, 10LOQ, 50LOQ) with relative standard deviation (RSD) less than 8.8%. The inter-laboratory study recovery results for broflanilide and DM-8007 and S (PFP-OH)-8007 ranged between 86.3 to 109.1%, 87.8 to 109.7% and 78.8 to 102.1%, and RSD values were also below 21%. All values were consistent with the criteria ranges requested in the Codex guidelines (CAC/GL 40-1993, 2003) and the Food and Drug Safety Evaluation guidelines (2016). Therefore, the proposed analytical method was accurate, effective and sensitive for broflanilide determination in agricultural commodities.

Development and Validation of an Analytical Method for Fungicide Fluoxastrobin Determination in Agricultural Products (농산물 중 살균제 Fluoxastrobin의 시험법 개발 및 유효성 검증)

  • So Eun, Lee;Su Jung, Lee;Sun Young, Gu;Chae Young, Park;Hye-Sun, Shin;Sung Eun, Kang;Jung Mi, Lee;Yun Mi, Chung;Gui Hyun, Jang;Guiim, Moon
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.373-384
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    • 2022
  • Fluoxastrobin a fungicide developed from Strobilurus species mushroom extracts, can be used as an effective pesticide to control fungal diseases. In this study, we optimized the extraction and purification of fluoxastrobin according to its physical and chemical properties using the QuEChERS method and developed an LC-MS/MS-based analysis method. For extraction, we used acetonitrile as the extraction solvent, along with MgSO4 and PSA. The limit of quantitation of fluoxastrobin was 0.01 mg/kg. We used 0.01, 0.1, and 0.5 mg/kg of five representative agricultural products and treated them with fluoxastrobin. The coefficients of determination (R2) of fluoxastrobin and fluoxastrobin Z isomer were > 0.998. The average recovery rates of fluoxastrobin (n=5) and fluoxastrobin Z isomer were 75.5-100.3% and 75.0-103.9%, respectively. The relative standard deviations (RSDs) were < 5.5% and < 4.3% for fluoxastrobin and fluoxastrobin Z isomer, respectively. We also performed an interlaboratory validation at Gwangju Regional Food and Drug Administration and compared the recovery rates and RSDs obtained for fluoxastrobin and fluoxastrobin Z isomer at the external lab with our results to validate our analysis method. In the external lab, the average recovery rates and RSDs of fluoxastrobin and fluoxastrobin Z isomer at each concentration were 79.5-100.5% and 78.8-104.7% and < 18.1% and < 10.2%, respectively. In all treatment groups, the concentrations were less than those described by the 'Codex Alimentarius Commission' and the 'Standard procedure for preparing test methods for food, etc.'. Therefore, fluoxastrobin is safe for use as a pesticide.

Study on the effect of small and medium-sized businesses being selected as suitable business types, on the franchise industry (중소기업적합업종선정이 프랜차이즈산업에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Chang-Dong;Shin, Geon-Chel;Jang, Jae Nam
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2012
  • The conflict between major corporations and small and medium-sized businesses is being aggravated, the trickle down effect is not working properly, and, as the controversy surrounding the effectiveness of the business limiting system continues to swirl, the plan proposed to protect the business domain of small and medium-sized businesses, resolve polarization between these businesses and large corporations, and protect small family run stores is the suitable business type designation system for small and medium-sized businesses. The current status of carrying out this system of selecting suitable business types among small and medium-sized businesses involves receiving applications for 234 items among the suitable business types and items from small and medium-sized businesses in manufacturing, and then selecting the items of the consultative group by analyzing and investigating the actual conditions. Suitable business type designation in the service industry will involve designation with priority on business types that are experiencing social conflict. Three major classifications of the service industry, related to the livelihood of small and medium-sized businesses, will be first designated, and subsequently this will be expanded sequentially. However, there is the concern that when designated as a suitable business type or item, this will hinder the growth motive for small to medium-sized businesses, and designation all cause decrease in consumer welfare. Also it is highly likely that it will operate as a prior regulation, cause side-effects by limiting competition systematically, and also be in violation against the main regulations of the FTA system. Moreover, it is pointed out that the system does not sufficiently reflect reverse discrimination factor against large corporations. Because conflict between small to medium sized businesses and large corporations results from the expansion of corporations to the service industry, which is unrelated to their key industry, it is necessary to introduce an advanced contract method like a master franchise or local franchise system and to develop local small to medium sized businesses through a franchise system to protect these businesses and dealers. However, this method may have an effect that contributes to stronger competitiveness of small to medium sized franchise businesses by advancing their competitiveness and operational methods a step further, but also has many negative aspects. First, as revealed by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy, the franchise industry is contributing to the strengthening of competitiveness through the economy of scale by organizing existing individual proprietors and increasing the success rate of new businesses. It is also revealed to be a response measure by the government to stabilize the economy of ordinary people and is emphasized as a 'useful way' to revitalize the service industry and improve the competitiveness of individual proprietors, and has been involved in contributions to creating jobs and expanding the domestic market by providing various services to consumers. From this viewpoint, franchises fit the purpose of the suitable business type system and is not something that is against it. Second, designation as a suitable business type may decrease investment for overseas expansion, R&D, and food safety, as well negatively affect the expansion of overseas corporations that have entered the domestic market, due to the contraction and low morale of large domestic franchise corporations that have competitiveness internationally. Also because domestic franchise businesses are hard pressed to secure competitiveness with multinational overseas franchise corporations that are operating in Korea, the system may cause difficulty for domestic franchise businesses in securing international competitiveness and also may result in reverse discrimination against these overseas franchise corporations. Third, the designation of suitable business type and item can limit the opportunity of selection for consumers who have up to now used those products and can cause a negative effect that reduces consumer welfare. Also, because there is the possibility that the range of consumer selection may be reduced when a few small to medium size businesses monopolize the market, by causing reverse discrimination between these businesses, the role of determining the utility of products must be left ot the consumer not the government. Lastly, it is desirable that this is carried out with the supplementation of deficient parts in the future, because fair trade is already secured with the enforcement of the franchise trade law and the best trade standard of the Fair Trade Commission. Overlapping regulations by the suitable business type designation is an excessive restriction in the franchise industry. Now, it is necessary to establish in the domestic franchise industry an environment where a global franchise corporation, which spreads Korean culture around the world, is capable of growing, and the active support by the government is needed. Therefore, systems that do not consider the process or background of the growth of franchise businesses and harm these businesses for the sole reason of them being large corporations must be removed. The inhibition of growth to franchise enterprises may decrease the sales of franchise stores, in some cases even bankrupt them, as well as cause other problems. Therefore the suitable business type system should not hinder large corporations, and as both small dealers and small to medium size businesses both aim at improving competitiveness and combined growth, large corporations, small dealers and small to medium sized businesses, based on their mutual cooperation, should not include franchise corporations that continue business relations with them in this system.

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Janggunite, a New Mineral from the Janggun Mine, Bonghwa, Korea (경북(慶北) 봉화군(奉化郡) 장군광산산(將軍鑛山産) 신종광물(新種鑛物) 장군석(將軍石)에 대(對)한 광물학적(鑛物學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Soo Jin
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.117-124
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    • 1975
  • Wet chemical analysis (for $MnO_2$, MnO, and $H_2O$(+)) and electron microprobe analysis (for $Fe_2O_3$ and PbO) give $MnO_2$ 74.91, MnO 11.33, $Fe_2O_3$ (total Fe) 4.19, PbO 0.03, $H_2O$ (+) 9.46, sum 99.92%. 'Available oxygen determined by oxalate titration method is allotted to $MnO_2$ from total Mn, and the remaining Mn is calculated as MnO. Traces of Ba, Ca, Mg, K, Cu, Zn, and Al were found. Li and Na were not found. The existence of (OH) is verified from the infrared absorption spectra. The analysis corresponds to the formula $Mn^{4+}{_{4.85}}(Mn^{2+}{_{0.90}}Fe^{3+}{_{0.30}})_{1.20}O_{8.09}(OH)_{5.91}$, on the basis of O=14, 'or ideally $Mn^{4+}{_{5-x}}(Mn^{2+},Fe^{3+})_{1+x}O_{8}(OH)_{6}$ ($x{\approx}0.2$). X-ray single crystal study could not be made because of the distortion of single crystals. But the x-ray powder pattern is satisfactorily indexed by an orthorhombic cell with a 9.324, b 14.05, c $7.956{\AA}$., Z=4. The indexed powder diffraction lines are 9.34(s) (100), 7.09(s) (020), 4.62(m) (200, 121), 4.17(m) (130), 3.547(s) (112), 3.212(vw) (041), 3.101(s) (300), 2.597(w) (013), 2.469(m) (331), 2.214(vw)(420), 2.098(vw) (260), 2.014 (vw) (402), 1.863(w) (500), 1.664(w) (314), 1.554(vw) (600), 1.525(m) (601), 1.405(m) (0.10.0). DTA curve shows the endothermic peaks at $250-370^{\circ}C$ and $955^{\circ}C$. The former is due to the dehydration: and oxidation forming$(Mn,\;Fe)_2O_3$(cubic, a $9.417{\AA}$), and the latter is interpreted as the formation of a hausmannite-type oxide (tetragonal, a 5.76, c $9.51{\AA}$) from $(Mn,\;Fe)_2O_3$. Infrared absorption spectral curve shows Mn-O stretching vibrations at $515cm^{-1}$ and $545cm^{-1}$, O-H bending vibration at $1025cm^{-1}$ and O-H stretching vibration at $3225cm^{-1}$. Opaque. Reflectance 13-15%. Bireflectance distinct in air and strong in oil. Reflection pleochroism changes from whitish to light grey. Between crossed nicols, color changes from yellowish brown with bluish tint to grey in air and yellowish brown to grey through bluish brown in oil. No internal reflections. Etching reactions: HCl(conc.) and $H_2SO_4+H_2O_2$-grey tarnish; $SnCl_2$(sat.)-dark color; $HNO_3$(conc.)-grey color; $H_2O_2$-tarnish with effervescence. It is black in color. Luster dull. Cleavage one direction perfect. Streak brownish black to dark brown. H. (Mohs) 2-3, very fragile. Specific gravity 3.59(obs.), 3.57(calc.). It occurs as radiating groups of flakes, flower-like aggregates, colloform bands, dendritic or arborescent masses composed of fine grains in the cementation zone of the supergene manganese oxide deposits of the Janggun mine, Bonghwa-gun, southeastern Korea. Associated minerals are calcite, nsutite, todorokite, and some undetermined manganese dioxide minerals. The name is for the mine, the first locality. The mineral and name were approved before publication by the Commission on New Minerals and Mineral Names, I.M.A.

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