• Title/Summary/Keyword: cognitive failure

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The Impact of Entrepreneurs' Cognitive Biases on Business Opportunity Evaluation Depending on Social Networks (기업가의 인지편향이 사회적 네트워크에 따라 사업 기회 평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Jang, Hyo Shik;Yang, Dong Woo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.185-196
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    • 2023
  • This paper investigates the effects of entrepreneurs' cognitive biases on business opportunity evaluation, given their strong entrepreneurial spirit, which is characterized by innovation, proactivity, and risk-taking. When making decisions related to business activities, entrepreneurs typically make rational judgments based on their knowledge, experience, and the advice of external experts. However, in situations of extreme stress or when quick decisions are required, they often rely on heuristics based on their cognitive biases. In particular, we often see cases where entrepreneurs fail because they make decisions based on heuristics in the process of evaluating and selecting new business opportunities that are planned to guarantee the growth and sustainability of their companies. This study was conducted in response to the need for research to clarify the effects of entrepreneurs' cognitive biases on new business opportunity evaluation, given that the cognitive biases of entrepreneurs, which are formed by repeated successful experiences, can sometimes lead to business failure. Although there have been many studies on the effects of cognitive biases on entrepreneurship and opportunity evaluation among university students and general people who aspire to start a business, there have been few studies that have clarified the relationship between cognitive biases and social networks among entrepreneurs. In contrast to previous studies, this study conducted empirical surveys of entrepreneurs only, and also conducted research on the relationship with social networks. For the study, a survey was conducted using a parallel survey method using online mobile surveys and self-report questionnaires from 150 entrepreneurs of small and medium-sized enterprises. The results of the study showed that 'overconfidence' and 'illusion of control', among the independent variables of entrepreneurs' cognitive biases, had a statistically significant positive(+) effect on business opportunity evaluation. In addition, it was confirmed that the moderating variable, social network, moderates the effect of overconfidence on business opportunity evaluation. This study showed that entrepreneurs' cognitive biases play a role in the process of evaluating and selecting new business opportunities, and that social networks play a role in moderating the structural relationship between entrepreneurs' cognitive biases and business opportunity evaluation. This study is expected to be of great help not only to entrepreneurs, but also to entrepreneur education and policy making, by showing how entrepreneurs can use cognitive biases in a positive way and the influence of social networks.

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Performance of Dynamic Spectrum Access Scheme Using Embedded Markov Chain (임베디드 마르코프 체인을 이용한 동적 스펙트럼 접속 방식의 성능 분석)

  • Lee, Yutae
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.17 no.9
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    • pp.2036-2040
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we consider two dynamic spectrum access schemes in cognitive network with two independent and identically distributed channels. Under the first scheme, secondary users switch channel only after transmission failure. On the other hand, under the second one, they switch channel only after successful transmission. We develop a mathematical model to investigate the performance of the second one and analyze the model using 3-dimensional embedded Markov chain. Numerical results and simulations are presented to compare between the two schemes.

Comparison of Display Visual Effects in Control Task under Limited Reaction Time (반응시간제한시 제어작업의 디스플레이 시각효과 비교)

  • 오영진
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.21 no.47
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 1998
  • Work environments have been changed with the advent of new technologies, such as computer technology. However, human cognitive limits can't pace up with the change of work environment. Designing human-computer system requires knowledge and evaluation of the human cognitive processes which control information flow workload. Futhermore, under limited reaction time and/or urgent situation, human operator may the work stress, work error and resultant deleterious work environment. This paper evaluate the visual factors of major information processing factors(information density, amount of information, operational speed of speed)on operator performance of supervisory control under urgent(limited reaction time)environments which require deleterious work condition. To describe the work performance int the urgent work situations with time stress and dynamic event occurrence, a new concept of information density was introduced. For a series of experiments performed for this study, three independent variables(information amount, system proceeding speed, information density) were evaluated using five dependent variables. The result of statistical analyses indicate that the amount of information affected on all of five dependent measure. Number of failure and number of secondary task score were influenced by both amount of information and operational speed of system. However reaction time of secondary task were affected by both amount of information and information density. As a result, the deleterious factors for the performances seemed to be a scanning time to supervise each control panel. Consequently, a new display panel was suggest to reduce operator work load for scanning task showing better operator performance.

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A Case Study of Marine Accident Investigation and Analysis with Focus on Human Error (해양사고조사를 위한 인적 오류 분석사례)

  • Kim, Hong-Tae;Na, Seong;Ha, Wook-Hyun
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.137-150
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    • 2011
  • Nationally and internationally reported statistics on marine accidents show that 80% or more of all marine accidents are caused fully or in part by human error. According to the statistics of marine accident causes from Korean Maritime Safety Tribunal(KMST), operating errors are implicated in 78.7% of all marine accidents that occurred from 2002 to 2006. In the case of the collision accidents, about 95% of all collision accidents are caused by operating errors, and those human error related collision accidents are mostly caused by failure of maintaining proper lookout and breach of the regulations for preventing collision. One way of reducing the probability of occurrence of the human error related marine accidents effectively is by investigating and understanding the role of the human elements in accident causation. In this paper, causal factors/root causes classification systems for marine accident investigation were reviewed and some typical human error analysis methods used in shipping industry were described in detail. This paper also proposed a human error analysis method that contains a cognitive process model, a human error analysis technique(Maritime HFACS) and a marine accident causal chains, and then its application to the actual marine accident was provided as a case study in order to demonstrate the framework of the method.

Bayesian bi-level variable selection for genome-wide survival study

  • Eunjee Lee;Joseph G. Ibrahim;Hongtu Zhu
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.28.1-28.13
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    • 2023
  • Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a clinical syndrome characterized by the onset and evolution of cognitive impairments, often considered a transitional stage to Alzheimer's disease (AD). The genetic traits of MCI patients who experience a rapid progression to AD can enhance early diagnosis capabilities and facilitate drug discovery for AD. While a genome-wide association study (GWAS) is a standard tool for identifying single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to a disease, it fails to detect SNPs with small effect sizes due to stringent control for multiple testing. Additionally, the method does not consider the group structures of SNPs, such as genes or linkage disequilibrium blocks, which can provide valuable insights into the genetic architecture. To address the limitations, we propose a Bayesian bi-level variable selection method that detects SNPs associated with time of conversion from MCI to AD. Our approach integrates group inclusion indicators into an accelerated failure time model to identify important SNP groups. Additionally, we employ data augmentation techniques to impute censored time values using a predictive posterior. We adapt Dirichlet-Laplace shrinkage priors to incorporate the group structure for SNP-level variable selection. In the simulation study, our method outperformed other competing methods regarding variable selection. The analysis of Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data revealed several genes directly or indirectly related to AD, whereas a classical GWAS did not identify any significant SNPs.

Differences in attributional bias and irrational gambling beliefs between gamblers and non-gamblers (귀인양식과 귀인편향, 비합리적 도박신념에서의 차이: 도박자와 비도박자의 비교)

  • Eun-A Park;Jonghan Yi
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.177-203
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    • 2015
  • The aims of this study were 1) to compare irrational gambling beliefs of gamblers and non-gamblers, 2) to investigate the role of cognitive error on winning probability thinking error, and 3) to examine the relationship between attributional bias and gambling behavior. A total of 248 subjects were recruited for this study. All subjects were classified into non-gamblers, social gamblers and pathological gamblers, and administered self-report questionnaires to measure irrational gambling beliefs, the probability inference error, the attriburional style, and the attributional bias. A pathological gambler group scored highest on irrational gambling beliefs, especially the overestimation of self-ability factor, and a social gambler group and a non-gambler group follow. All three groups scored higher on the magnification of gambling skills than the mean (4.0) of the scale. Pathological gamblers and social gamblers scored higher on the probability thinking error than non-gamblers. Pathological gamblers displayed higher external attribution, lower internal attribution in their daily life events and higher internal attribution in failure situation than social gamblers and non-gamblers. The results indicate that cognitive errors would be a factor that differentiates pathological gamblers from social gamblers and non-gamblers. In predicting gambling behaviors, overestimation of self-ability of irrational gambling beliefs, internal attribution in failure situation, external attribution in daily live event, and probability thinking error were identified as significant factors. It is concluded that a public education about common cognitive bias featured in gamblers might be important in prevention of pathological gambling behaviors.

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CONCEPT AND THEORY OF TEST ANXIETY (시험불안(試驗不安)의 개념(槪念)과 이론(理論))

  • Cho, Soo-Churl
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 1991
  • Test situations are relatively specific and are experienced by everyone. The major purposes of this overview are to review the current concepts and theories of test anxiety and based on this review to suggest future directions in test anxiety theory and research. Test anxiety can be explained in terms of drive-oriented approach. trait-state anxiety theory, cognitive theory, cognitive and emotional approach, and psychodynamic theory. Usually, high test-anxious students keep the following characteristics : 1) The test situation is seen as difficult, challenging and threatening. 2) The individual sees himself as ineffective, and inadequate in handling the task at hand. 3) The individual focuses on undesirable consequences of personal inadequacy. 4) Self-deprecatory preoccupations are strong and interfere or compete with task-relevant cognitive activity. 5) The individual expects and anticipates failure and loss of regard by others. Future directions in test anxiety research should be focused to elucidate the nature and construct of test anxiety and the etiological factors of test anxiety by conducting research on the relationship between parental or social attitude and test anxiety. The effects of test anxiety on memory, attention, and cue utilization should be performed to elucidate the relationship between test anxiety and performance.

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TASK TYPES AND ERROR TYPES INVOLVED IN THE HUMAN-RELATED UNPLANNED REACTOR TRIP EVENTS

  • Kim, Jaew-Han;Park, Jin-Kyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.40 no.7
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    • pp.615-624
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, the contribution of task types and error types involved in the human-related unplanned reactor trip events that have occurred between 1986 and 2006 in Korean nuclear power plants are analysed in order to establish a strategy for reducing the human-related unplanned reactor trips. Classification systems for the task types, error modes, and cognitive functions are developed or adopted from the currently available taxonomies, and the relevant information is extracted from the event reports or judged on the basis of an event description. According to the analyses from this study, the contributions of the task types are as follows: corrective maintenance (25.7%), planned maintenance (22.8%), planned operation (19.8%), periodic preventive maintenance (14.9%), response to a transient (9.9%), and design/manufacturing/installation (6.9%). According to the analysis of the error modes, error modes such as control failure (22.2%), wrong object (18.5%), omission (14.8%), wrong action (11.1 %), and inadequate (8.3%) take up about 75% of the total unplanned trip events. The analysis of the cognitive functions involved in the events indicated that the planning function had the highest contribution (46.7%) to the human actions leading to unplanned reactor trips. This analysis concludes that in order to significantly reduce human-induced or human-related unplanned reactor trips, an aide system (in support of maintenance personnel) for evaluating possible (negative) impacts of planned actions or erroneous actions as well as an appropriate human error prediction technique, should be developed.

A Case of Acute Respiratory Failure After Trichloroethylene Inhalation (트리클로로에틸렌 흡입으로 인한 호흡부전 1례)

  • Park, Jae-Seok;Jeon, Young-Woo;Kim, Young-Il;Gil, Hyo-Wook;Yang, Jong-Oh;Lee, Eun-Young;Hong, Sae-Yong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.30-33
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    • 2011
  • Trichloroethylene (TCE, $C_2HCl_3$), which was introduced as a gas for general anesthesia and analgesia in early 1900's has been widely used in industry as an organic solvent. Occupational exposure to TCE is an important medical problem. Manifestations of acute exposure to TCE include mucocutaneous irritation, hepatotoxicity, cognitive impairment, sleep, headache, respiratory insufficiency and death. We report a 38-year-old man who was admitted to a department of emergency medicine after occupational inhalation exposure to TCE. He rapidly developed semicoma and respiratory depression. After mechanical ventilation, hypercapnea and hypoxemia disappeared and his mental state again became alert. Careful evaluation and proper respiratory support are important for respiratory failure after occupational TCE inhalation.

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Instrument Development for Mathematical Achievement Attribution (수학 학습 성취 귀인에 대한 측정 도구 개발)

  • Kim, Bu-Mi;Kim, Soo-Jin
    • The Mathematical Education
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.501-522
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    • 2010
  • In this study, 'Instruments of the achievement attribution in mathematical learning' was develop to investigate the reasons of mathematical learning achievement by reflecting Korean middle school and high school students' psychological characters and learning context in mathematical learning. To develop the appropriate items for the achievement attribution in mathematical learning, after reviewing attribution literature thoroughly, first version of the instrument was developed and Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis were conducted. Then, to reduce the effect of the gender difference and achievement level difference, Differential Item Functioning was performed. Also, using Multiple group Confirmatory Factor Analysis, this instrument was investigated to see whether this can be used for both middle school and high school. The final items for success attribution are 3 items for luck, 3 items for effort, 2 items for ability. The failure attribution were composed of 3 items for luck, 3 items for effort, 2 items for ability, and 2 items for other. The instrument was developed by using large samples and psychometric analysis. Therefore, mathematic teachers can use this instrument efficiently to make a foundation for better learning environment so students' cognitive area and affective area can be harmonized.