• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.877-888
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• 2016

To project the effects of climate-induced change on aquatic environments, it is necessary to determine the thermal constraints affecting different fish species and to acquire time series of the current and projected water temperature (WT). Assuming that a nonlinear regression between the WT at individual stations and the ambient air temperature (AT) at nearby weather stations could represent the best relationship of air-water temperature, This study estimates future WT using a general circulation model (GCM). In addition, assuming that the grid-averaged observations of AT correspond to the AT output from GCM simulation, this study constructed a regression curve between the observations of the local WT and the concurrent GCM-simulated surface AT. Because of its low spatial resolution, downscaling is unavoidable. The projected WT under global warming scenario A2 (B2) shows an increase of about $1.6^{\circ}C$ ($0.9^{\circ}C$) for the period 2080-2100. The maximum/minimum WT shows an amount of change similar to that of the mean values. This study will provide guidelines for decision-makers and engineers in climate-induced river environment and ecosystem management.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.425-434
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• 2013

Nowadays, the korean peninsula has endured weather changes toward to the subtropical climate. Also demographical structure has changed into multi-cultural society in which many people from subtropical areas have immigrated into Korea. Therefore, consumption and production of subtropical vegetables become important. For the analysis, we choose eight important subtropical crops. EDM (Equilibrium Displacement Model) with many parameters and elasticities is used for the forecast of consumption and required cultivation area. The simulation focuses on the changes of the number of foreign workers and immigrated women in Korea to predict the quantity of consumption and required area in Korea. The results show that we need additional land area about 581~1,065 ha for the cropping subtropical vegetables in Korea. Finally, these required area can be provided by the cities and counties in coast area in Gyeongsangnam-Do, Jeonranam-Do and Jeju-Do. Climate change will be continued in the future. Together with climate change, the change of demographical structure into multi-culture may increase consumption and production of subtropical vegetables. Forecasting of increased consumption and required cultivation area for subtropical vegetables is significant.

• KIEAE Journal
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.101-108
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• 2011

The weather data has important role for performative building design. If the data location is close to building site, the result of performative design can be accurate. The data which have used nowadays in Korea are from U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Korea Solar Energy Society (KSES) but they cover only several locations in Korea which are 4 in DOE and 11 in KSES and there are opinions which it could be served building design efficiently even if the data are not enough. However the weather data for micro-climate are exist which are Green Building Studio Virtual Weather Station (GBS VWS) and Meteonorm weather data. Each weather data has different generation methods which are TMY2, TRY, MM5, and extrapolation. In this research, the weather date for climate are compared with DOE and KSES to check correlation. The result shows the value of correlation in Dry Bulb Temp. and Dew Point Temp. is around 0.9 so they have high correlation in both but in Wind Speed case the correlation(around 0.2) is not exist. In overall result, the data has correlation with DOE and KSES as the value of correlation 0.648 of GBS VW and 0.656 of Meteonorm. Even if the correlation value is not high enough, the patterns of difference in each weather element are similar in scatter plot.

• 설비공학논문집
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• 제15권5호
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• pp.422-431
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• 2003

Theory of the building heat transfer is generally limited to the heat flux to the surfaces of windows and walls, which influences the indoor climate of a building, in the field of architectural environmental engineering. While the heat flux from the buildings to their environment has been considered in the viewpoint of urban climate, its conventional theory have been rarely examined. The purpose of this study is to propose a building-urban heat transfer model for defining the relation between the building and the urban climate by extending the building heat transfer model. In this study, the extended building heat transfer model, where response factor method is used, is established on the urban space and the indoor space by the boundary of building envelopes. Computer simulation (HASP/ACLD) is conducted on the subjected urban area by the established building-urban heat transfer model. As a result it is logically proved that the short waves of solar radiation, which interact with long Waves of radiation from the buildings and the earth, increase the urban air temperature ana buildings largely influence on the urban climate.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.707-713
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• 2014

The purpose of this article is analyzing the economic impacts of abnormal climate on total revenue of red pepper in Korea, with employing the equilibrium displacement model. Our simulation results show the rate of yield change, price change, and total revenue change according to the climate change scenarios. In th case of by RCP 8.5 Scenario, red pepper production volume would be expected to decrease by 77.2% compared to 2012 while price increasing by 29.6%. As a result, total revenue to be returned to farmers would be reduced by 47.6% than it was in 2012. In contrast, total revenue would be expected to decline by 29.6% according to RCP 4.5 scenario.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.171-171
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• 2020

Decision making strategies should consider both adaptiveness and robustness in order to deal with two main characteristics of climate change: non-stationarity and deep uncertainty. Especially, robust strategies are different from traditional optimal strategies in the sense that they are satisfactory over a wider range of uncertainty and may act as a key when confronting climate change. In this study, a new framework named Robust Stochastic Dynamic Programming (R-SDP) is proposed, which couples previously developed robust optimization (RO) into the objective function and constraint of SDP. Two main approaches of RO, feasibility robustness and solution robustness, are considered in the optimization algorithm and consequently, three models to be tested are developed: conventional-SDP (CSDP), R-SDP-Feasibility (RSDP-F), and R-SDP-Solution (RSDP-S). The developed models were used to derive optimal monthly release rules in a single reservoir, and multiple simulations of the derived monthly policy under inflow scenarios with varying mean and standard deviations are undergone. Simulation results were then evaluated with a wide range of evaluation metrics from reliability, resiliency, vulnerability to additional robustness measures. Evaluation results were finally visualized with advanced visualization tools that are used in multi-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework. As a result, RSDP-F and RSDP-S models yielded more risk averse, or conservative, results than the CSDP model, and a trade-off relationship between traditional and robustness metrics was discovered.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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• pp.69-69
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• 2021

From the unprecedented 2011 spring flood, the residens reside by Lake Champlain and Richelieu River encountered enormous damages. The International Joint Committee (IJC) released the Lake Champlain-Richelieu River (LCRR) Plan of Study (PoS). One of the major tasks for the PoS is to investigate the possible scenarios that might happen in the LCRR basin based on the stochastic simulation of the Net Basin Supplies that calculates the amount of flow into the lake and the river. Therefore, the current study proposed a novel apporach that simulate the annual NBS teleconnecting the climate index. The proposed model employed the bivariate empirical decomposition to contamporaneously model the long-term evolution of nonstationary oscillation embeded in the annual NBS and the climate signal (here, Artic Oscillation: AO). In order to represent the variational behavior of NBS correlation structure along with the temporal revolution of the climate index, a new nonstationary parameterization concept is proposed. The results indicate that the proposed model is superior performance in preserving long and short temporal correlation. It can even preserve the hurst coefficient better than any other tested models.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제60권5호
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• pp.135-147
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• 2018

The objective of this study was to analyze the characteristics of combined 1D/2D inundation simulation of riverside farmland using the Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). We compared and analyzed inundation simulation results between 1D and combined 1D/2D hydraulic simulation using HEC-RAS. Calibration and validation of stream stage were performed using three rainfall events. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$) and root mean square error (RMSE) between simulated and observed stream stage were 0.935 - 0.957 and 0.250 m - 0.283 m in calibration and validation, respectively. The inundation area showed no significant difference in 1D and combined 1D/2D simulation ($8.48km^2$ in 1D simulation, $8.75km^2$ in combined 1D/2D simulation). The average inundation depth by 1D simulation was 1.4 m deeper than combined 1D/2D simulation. In the lower inundation depth, the inundation area by combined 1D/2D simulation was larger than inundation area by 1D simulation. As the inundation depth increased, the inundation area by 1D simulation became wider. In the case of the 1D/2D combined simulation, low elevation areas along the river bank were inundated widely. Compared to 1D/2D combined simulation, the flood radius in some sections was longer in 1D simulation. In the 1D analysis, because the low altitude riverside farmlands are also assumed to stream, it is calculated that riverside farmlands have the same stage as the mainstream when the stream is overflowed. Therefore, the inundation area seems to be overestimated in those sections. In other regions, the inundation areas tend to be broken depending on overflow by each stream cross-section. In the case of river flooding, the overflow is expected to flow to the lower area depending on the terrain, such as the results of the combined 1D/2D simulation. It is concluded that the results of combined 1D/2D inundation simulation reflected the topographical characteristics of low-lying farmland.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제8권6호
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• pp.37-45
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• 2008

우리나라도 세계적인 기후변화 추세에 따라 장래 수자원의 변동이 예상되고 있다. 이러한 문제에 대응하고 피해를 최소화하기 위해서는 미래의 기후를 예측하는 기상모형으로부터 유용한 정보를 추출하여 활용하는 방안을 마련하여야 한다. 본 연구의 목적은 불확실성 분석을 통한 수자원 운영의 중심이 되는 국내 유역들에 대한 GCM모형의 활용성을 평가하는 것이다. 주된 기법은 Kolmogorov-Smirnov test를 이용하여 관측값과 GCM 모의값의 유의성을 평가하는 것이다. GCM의 시공간적 특성을 고려한 기법이 제안되었으며, 유럽의 ECMWF모형과 국내 기상연구소에서 모의한 서로 다른 해상도를 지니는 Metri-GCM의 표면 강수량과 표면온도 자료 등이 추출되어 적용되었다. 관측값으로는 유역대표 강수량, 온도, 유량 등의 자료가 적용되었다. 분석 결과 GCM의 유역별 적용성을 확인할 수 있었는데, 특히 온도 자료의 경우 대부분의 유역에 모든 모형의 모의 결과가 적용 가능함을 확인하였다.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.242-249
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• 2006

육상생태계에 나타날 수 있는 기후변화의 영향을 평가하기 위해 생태계모형의 사용이 보편화되고 있다. 작물생육모형의 경우 포장단위로 적용할 수 있으므로 기후변화정보만 적절한 공간단위로 제공된다면 경관규모에서 상세한 공간변화를 예측할 수 있다. 경기북부지역은 청정환경과 함께 고품질 콩 재배에 알맞는 기후지대이지만 기후변화에 의해 이 지역 내 콩 재배단지가 어떤 영향을 받을지 궁금하다. 향후 100년간(2011-2100) 예상되는 기후조건에서 선발된 10ha 이상 규모의 342개 단지를 대상으로 CROPGRO-Soybean에 의해 조중만생 콩 품종의 생육을 모의하였다. 이를 위해 3개 기후학적 평년(2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100)에 대해 월별 30m 격자형 기후변화 자료로부터 각 재배단지의 일 최고 및 최저 기온, 강수량, 강수일수, 일사량을 추출하고, 각 평년별로 일기상자료를 통계학적 방법에 의해 무작위로 30년치씩 생성하였다. 미래 3개 평년의 기상자료에 의해 생육모형을 구동하여 342개 재배단지의 생장, 발육, 수량특성을 모의한 결과 온난화가 진행될수록 콩의 개화기와 성숙기가 단축되며, 전체적인 생육기간은 $7{\sim}9$일 정도 줄어들었다. 수량은 조중생종의 경우 온난화에 따라 $1{\sim}15%$ 정도 감소하였는데 반해 만생종은 증가 후 감소하였다. 그 결과 현존하는 재배구역의 남북간 생산성 차이가 미래에는 크게 감소하거나 품종에 따라 역전되는 현상이 기대된다.