• Title/Summary/Keyword: climate model

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A Second-Order Particle Tracking Method

  • Lee, Seok;Lie, Heung-Jae;Song, Kyu-Min;Lim, Chong-Jeanne
    • Ocean Science Journal
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.201-208
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    • 2005
  • An accurate particle tracking method for a finite difference method model is developed using a constant acceleration method. Being assumed constant temporal and spatial gradients, the new method permits temporal-spatial variability of particle velocity. Test results in a solid rotating flow show that the new method has second-order accuracy. The performance of the new method is compared with that of other methods; the first-order Euler forward method, and the second-order Euler predictor-corrector method. The new method is the most efficient method among the three. It is more accurate and efficient than the other two.

Estimating the Change of Potential Forest Distribution and Carton Stock by Climate Changes - Focused on Forest in Yongin-City - (기후변화에 따른 임상분포 변화 및 탄소저장량 예측 - 용인시 산림을 기반으로 -)

  • Jeong, Hyeon yong;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Nam, Kijun;Kim, Moonil
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.177-188
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    • 2013
  • In this research, forest cover distribution change, forest volume and carbon stock in Yongin-city, Gyeonggi procince were estimated focused on the forest of Yongin-City using forest type map and HyTAG model in relation to climate change. Present forest volume of Yongin-city was estimated using the data from $5^{th}$ Forest Type Map and Korean National Forest Inventory (NFI). And for the future 100 years potential forest distribution by 10-year interval were estimated using HyTAG model. Forest volume was also calculated using algebraic differences form of the growth model. According to the $5^{th}$ Forest Type Map, present needleleaf forest occupied 37.8% and broadleaf forest 62.2% of forest area. And the forest cover distribution after 30 years would be changed to 0.13% of needleleaf forest and 99.97% of broadleaf forest. Finally, 60 years later, whole forest of Yongin-city would be covered by broad-leaf forest. Also the current forest carbon stocks was measured 1,773,862 tC(56.79 tC/ha) and future carbon stocks after 50 years was predicted to 4,432,351 tC(141.90 tC/ha) by HyTAG model. The carbon stocks after 100 years later was 6,884,063 tC (220.40 tC/ha). According to the HyTAG model prediction, Pinus koraiensis, Larix kaempferi, Pinus rigida, and Pinus densiflora are not suitable to the future climate of 10-year, 30-year, 30-year, and 50-year later respectively. All Quercus spp. was predicted to be suitable to the future climate.

Assessment of Future Climate and Land Use Change on Hydrology and Stream Water Quality of Anseongcheon Watershed Using SWAT Model (II) (SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 기후변화 및 토지이용 변화에 따른 안성천 유역 수문 - 수질 변화 분석 (II))

  • Lee, Yong Jun;An, So Ra;Kang, Boosik;Kim, Seong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6B
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    • pp.665-673
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    • 2008
  • This study is to assess the future potential climate and land use change impact on streamflow and stream water quality of the study watershed using the established model parameters (I). The CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) CGCM2 (Canadian Global Coupled Model) based on IPCC SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) A2 and B2 scenarios were adopted for future climate condition, and the data were downscaled by Stochastic Spatio-Temporal Random Cascade Model technique. The future land use condition was predicted by using modified CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov chain) technique with the past time series of Landsat satellite images. The model was applied for the future extreme precipitation cases of around 2030, 2060 and 2090. The predicted results showed that the runoff ratio increased 8% based on the 2005 precipitation (1160.1 mm) and runoff ratio (65%). Accordingly the Sediment, T-N and T-P also increased 120%, 16% and 10% respectively for the case of 50% precipitation increase. This research has the meaning in providing the methodological procedures for the evaluation of future potential climate and land use changes on watershed hydrology and stream water quality. This model result are expected to plan in advance for healthy and sustainable watershed management and countermeasures of climate change.

The Relationships Among Occupational Safety Climate, Patient Safety Climate, and Safety Performance Based on Structural Equation Modeling

  • Aghaei, Hamed;Asadi, Zahra Sadat;Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei;Ahmadinia, Hassan
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.447-454
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationships among hospital safety climate, patient safety climate, and safety outcomes among nurses. Methods: In the current cross-sectional study, the occupational safety climate, patient safety climate, and safety performance of nurses were measured using several questionnaires. Structural equation modeling was applied to test the relationships among occupational safety climate, patient safety climate, and safety performance. Results: A total of 211 nurses participated in this study. Over half of them were female (57.0%). The age of the participants tended to be between 20 years and 30 years old (55.5%), and slightly more than half had less than 5 years of work experience (51.5%). The maximum and minimum scores of occupational safety climate dimensions were found for reporting of errors and cumulative fatigue, respectively. Among the dimensions of patient safety climate, non-punitive response to errors had the highest mean score, and manager expectations and actions promoting patient safety had the lowest mean score. The correlation coefficient for the relationship between occupational safety climate and patient safety climate was 0.63 (p<0.05). Occupational safety climate and patient safety climate also showed significant correlations with safety performance. Conclusions: Close correlations were found among occupational safety climate, patient safety climate, and nurses' safety performance. Therefore, improving both the occupational and patient safety climate can improve nurses' safety performance, consequently decreasing occupational and patient-related adverse outcomes in healthcare units.

Climate Change Scenario Generation and Uncertainty Assessment: Multiple variables and potential hydrological impacts

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Park, Rae-Gun;Choi, Byung-Kyu;Park, Se-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.268-272
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    • 2010
  • The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

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Factors Affecting the Intention of the Rice Farmers to Adopt the Integrated Cash Waqf Environmental Protection Model: An Empirical Study in Kedah Malaysia

  • AFROZ, Rafia;MUHIBBULLAH, Md.;MORSHED, Mohammed Niaz
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.189-199
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    • 2019
  • The objectives of this study are to propose the Integrated Waqf Environmental Protection Model (IWEP) and investigate the farmers' intention to adopt it. In developing the IWEP model and investigating farmers' willingness to adopt it, this study surveyed 400 farmers in Kedah. The intention of the farmers to adopt the proposed model was analysed by adding perceived barriers and socio-economic variables into the theory of reasoned action (TRA) model. The collected data were processed using structural equation modelling (SEM). The SEM results show that the subjective norm is positive and has a significant impact on the intentions of low-income farmers to accept the IWEP model. This indicates that the decision of the low-income farmers to accept the IWEP model is significantly influenced by their family members, neighbours and friends. Furthermore, awareness and perceived barriers have a greater impact on the elderly, highly educated and wealthy farmers. The findings indicate that the elderly, highly educated and wealthy farmers are aware of climate change and they perceive higher risks or barriers to climate change. As a result, they are more likely to have an adaptation intention. If we encourage people to create waqf fund, we can increase the value of the farmer and the country's total GDP.

Production of Fine-resolution Agrometeorological Data Using Climate Model

  • Ahn, Joong-Bae;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Lee, Deog-Bae;Kang, Su-Chul;Hur, Jina
    • Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.20-27
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    • 2011
  • A system for fine-resolution long-range weather forecast is introduced in this study. The system is basically consisted of a global-scale coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional model. The system makes use of a data assimilation method in order to reduce the initial shock or drift that occurs at the beginning of coupling due to imbalance between model dynamics and observed initial condition. The long-range predictions are produced in the system based on a non-linear ensemble method. At the same time, the model bias are eliminated by estimating the difference between hindcast model climate and observation. In this research, the predictability of the forecast system is studied, and it is illustrated that the system can be effectively used for the high resolution long-term weather prediction. Also, using the system, fine-resolution climatological data has been produced with high degree of accuracy. It is proved that the production of agrometeorological variables that are not intensively observed are also possible.

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Uncertainty assessment caused by GCMs selection on hydrologic studies

  • Ghafouri-Azar, Mona;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.151-151
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    • 2018
  • The present study is aimed to quantifying the uncertainty in the general circulation model (GCM) selection and its impacts on hydrology studies in the basins. For this reason, 13 GCMs was selected among the 26 GCM models of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) scenarios. Then, the climate data and hydrologic data with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of the best model (INMCM4) and worst model (HadGEM2-AO) were compared to understand the uncertainty associated with GCM models. In order to project the runoff, the Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was driven to simulate daily river discharge by using daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature as inputs of this model. For simulating the discharge, the model has been calibrated and validated for daily data. Root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were applied as evaluation criteria. Then parameters of the model were applied for the periods 2011-2040, and 2070-2099 to project the future discharge the five large basins of South Korea. Then, uncertainty caused by projected temperature, precipitation and runoff changes were compared in seasonal and annual time scale for two future periods and RCPs compared to the reference period (1976-2005). The findings of this study indicated that more caution will be needed for selecting the GCMs and using the results of the climate change analysis.

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An Analysis of Fishermen's Perception to Climate Change in Korea (기후변화에 대한 어업인 인식의 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Bong-Tae;Lee, Sang-Geon;Jeong, Myung-Saeng
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.71-84
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    • 2014
  • This study indicates that 84.5% of fishermen have perceived climate change and 74.9% of fishermen have responded that frequency and intensity of the impacts of climate change are increasing. The results of regression analysis have shown that the level of fishermen experiencing the impacts of climate change differs according to individual's characteristics including age, length of experience, sea area (fishing area) and types of fisheries. About half of the respondents have shown that they are not taking any actions against the effects of climate change. The main reasons are that they either have lack of knowledge on how to respond to the impacts of climate change or have the perception that climate change is irresistible. The majority of respondents have responded that they are not aware of the government's climate change policy and emphasized that it is necessary to have effective countermeasures strengthening the provision of information about climate change policy. The result of perception survey have highlighted that it is essential for the government and the fishermen to share relevant information and to consider method of cooperation.

An Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on Nakdong River Flow Condition using CGCM ' s Future Climate Information (CGCM의 미래 기후 정보를 이용한 기후변화가 낙동강 유역 유황에 미치는 영향분석)

  • Keem, Munsung;Ko, Ikwhan;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.863-871
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    • 2009
  • For the assessment of climate change impacts on river flow condition, CGCM 3.1 T63 is selected as future climate information. The projections come from CGCM used to simulate the GHG emission scenario known as A2. Air temperature and precipitation information from the GCM simulations are converted to regional scale data using the statistical downscaling method known as MSPG. Downscaled climate data from GCM are then used as the input data for the modified TANK model to generate regional runoff estimates for 44 river locations in Nakdong river basin. Climate change is expected to reduce the reliability of water supplies in the period of 2021~2030. In the period of 2051~2060, stream flow is expected to be reduced in spring season and increased in summer season. However, it should be noted that there are a lot of uncertainties in such multiple-step analysis used to convert climate information from GCM-based future climate projections into hydrologic information.