• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.38-38
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• 2023

Pleikrong reservoir with a concrete gravity dam that impound more than 1 billion cubic meter storage volume is one of the largest reservoir in Central Highland of Vietnam. Sedimentation is a major problem in this area and it becomes more severe due to the effect of climate change. Over time, it gradually reduces the reservoir storage capacity affecting to the reliability of water and power supply. This study aims to integrate the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model with 14 bias-corrected GCM/RCM models under two emissions scenarios, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 to estimate sediment inflow to Pleikrong reservoir in the long term period. The result indicated that the simulated total amount of sediment deposited in the reservoir from 2010 to 2018 was approximately 39 mil m³ which is a 17% underestimate compared with the observed value of 47 mil m³. The results also show the reduction in reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation ranges from 25% to 62% by 2050, depending on the different climate change models. The reservoir reduced storage volume's rate in considering the impact of climate change is much faster than in the case of no climate change. The outcomes of this study will be helpful for a sustainable and climate-resilient plan of sediment management for the Pleikrongreservoir.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.229-229
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• 2015

Downscaling is a fundamental procedure in the assessment of the future climate change impact at regional and watershed scales. Hence, it is important to investigate the spatial variability of the climate conditions that are constructed by various downscaling methods in order to assess whether each method can model the climate conditions at various spatial scales properly. This study introduces a fundamental research from Jang and Kavvas(2015) that precipitation variability from a popular statistical downscaling method (BCSD) and a dynamical downscaling method (MM5) that is based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data for a historical period and on the CCSM3 GCM A1B emission scenario simulations for a projection period, is investigated by means of some spatial characteristics: a) the normalized standard deviation (NSD), and b) the precipitation change over Northern California region. From the results of this study it is found that the BCSD method has limitations in projecting future precipitation values since the BCSD-projected precipitation, being based on the interpolated change factors from GCM projected precipitation, does not consider the interactions between GCM outputs and local geomorphological characteristics such as orographic effects and land use/cover patterns. As such, it is not clear whether the popular BCSD method is suitable for the assessment of the impact of future climate change at regional, watershed and local scales as the future climate will evolve in time and space as a nonlinear system with land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, it is noted that in this study only the BCSD procedure for the statistical downscaling method has been investigated, and the results by other statistical downscaling methods might be different.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2011년도 학술발표회
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• pp.18-18
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• 2011

Climate change is impacting and will increasingly impact both the quantity and quality of the world's water resources in a variety of ways. In some areas warming climate results in increased rainfall, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge while in others there may be declines in all of these. Water quality is described by a number of variables. Some are directly impacted by climate change. Temperature is an obvious example. Notably, increased atmospheric concentrations of $CO_2$ triggering climate change increase the $CO_2$ dissolving into water. This has manifold consequences including decreased pH and increased alkalinity, with resultant increases in dissolved concentrations of the minerals in geologic materials contacted by such water. Climate change is also expected to increase the number and intensity of extreme climate events, with related hydrologic changes. A simple framework has been developed in New Zealand for assessing and predicting climate change impacts on water resources. Assessment is largely based on trend analysis of historic data using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method. Trend analysis requires long-term, regular monitoring data for both climate and hydrologic variables. Data quality is of primary importance and data gaps must be avoided. Quantitative prediction of climate change impacts on the quantity of water resources can be accomplished by computer modelling. This requires the serial coupling of various models. For example, regional downscaling of results from a world-wide general circulation model (GCM) can be used to forecast temperatures and precipitation for various emissions scenarios in specific catchments. Mechanistic or artificial intelligence modelling can then be used with these inputs to simulate climate change impacts over time, such as changes in streamflow, groundwater-surface water interactions, and changes in groundwater levels. The Waimea Plains catchment in New Zealand was selected for a test application of these assessment and prediction methods. This catchment is predicted to undergo relatively minor impacts due to climate change. All available climate and hydrologic databases were obtained and analyzed. These included climate (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and sunshine hours, evapotranspiration, humidity, and cloud cover) and hydrologic (streamflow and quality and groundwater levels and quality) records. Results varied but there were indications of atmospheric temperature increasing, rainfall decreasing, streamflow decreasing, and groundwater level decreasing trends. Artificial intelligence modelling was applied to predict water usage, rainfall recharge of groundwater, and upstream flow for two regionally downscaled climate change scenarios (A1B and A2). The AI methods used were multi-layer perceptron (MLP) with extended Kalman filtering (EKF), genetic programming (GP), and a dynamic neuro-fuzzy local modelling system (DNFLMS), respectively. These were then used as inputs to a mechanistic groundwater flow-surface water interaction model (MODFLOW). A DNFLMS was also used to simulate downstream flow and groundwater levels for comparison with MODFLOW outputs. MODFLOW and DNFLMS outputs were consistent. They indicated declines in streamflow on the order of 21 to 23% for MODFLOW and DNFLMS (A1B scenario), respectively, and 27% in both cases for the A2 scenario under severe drought conditions by 2058-2059, with little if any change in groundwater levels.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.821-831
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• 2009

The study was aimed to assess the expected impact of climate change on the water cycle and soil losses in Daecheong Reservoir watershed, Korea using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) that was validated for the watershed in a previous study. Future climate data including precipitation, temperature and humidity generated by introducing a regional climate model (Mesoscale Model Version 5, MM5) to dynamically downscale global circulation model (European Centre Hamburg Model Version 4, ECHAM4) were used to simulate the hydrological responses and soil erosion processes in the future 100 years (2001~2100) under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B. The results indicated that the climate change may increase in the amount of surface runoff and thereby sediment load to the reservoir. Spatially, the impact was relatively more significant in the subbasin Bocheongcheon because of its lower occupation rate of forest land compared to other subbasins. Seasonally, the increase of surface runoff and soil losses was more significant during late summer and fall season when both flood control and turbidity flow control are necessary for the reservoir and downstream. The occurrence of extreme turbidity flow events during these period is more vulnerable to reservoir operation because the suspended solids that remained water column can be resuspended by vertical mixing during winter turnover period. The study results provide useful information for the development of adaptive management strategy for the reservoir to cope with the expected impact of future climate change.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제51권spc1호
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• pp.1079-1089
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• 2018

기존 기후변화 영향평가에서 발생하는 불확실성에 대한 연구들은 전체과정에서 총 불확실성과 그 전파에 대한 것보다 각 단계별 불확실성에 초점을 맞추어 연구가 진행되었다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 first-order Taylor series expansion에 기반하여 전망의 분산을 이용하는 Uncertainty Delta Method (UDM)를 제안하였으며, 이 방법은 각 단계별 불확실성 정량화와 증감정도, 단계별 불확실성 비율, 총 불확실성의 전파 과정 제시가 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 과정의 단계별 불확실성 정량화와 전파과정 분석을 위해 미래 2030년부터 2059년까지를 대상으로 2개 배출 시나리오, 3개 GCM, 2개 상세화기법, 2개 수문모형을 사용하였다. 결과를 분석하면, UDM을 이용한 총 불확실성은 5.45(배출시나리오: 4.45, 상세화기법: 0.45, 상세화기법: 0.27, 수문모형: 0.28)이며, 배출 시나리오의 불확실성(4.45)이 가장 크게 나타났다. 불확실성은 각 단계를 거칠수록 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 어떠한 배출시나리오를 선정하느냐에 따라 미래 수자원전망이 매우 달라질 수 있음을 의미한다. 다음으로 Hawkins and Sutton (2009)가 제안한 Fractional Uncertainty Method (FUM)을 이용한 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 분석에서 가장 불확실성이 큰 요인은 배출 시나리오(FUM 불확실성: 0.52)이며, 이 결과는 UDM 결과와 동일하게 나타났다. 따라서 이 연구에서 제안한 UDM은 기후변화 영향평가에서의 불확실성 이해와 적합한 분석 및 미래 기후변화 대비 보다 나은 수자원 전망이 가능하도록 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

• 대기
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.33-41
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• 2008

This study provides an impact assesment of climate change on energy consumption, based on active-deal scenario. This approach assumes that the amount of electric energy consumption depends on human spontaneous acts against local (REC) has ben developed by using monthly mean temperature and monthly amount of electric energy consumption in the 6 major cities over the 19-205 period. The statistical model is utilized to estimate the past and future REEC, and to assess the economic benefits and damage in energy consumption sector. For an estimation of the future REEC, climate change scenario, which is generated by National Institute of Meteorological Research, is utilized in this study. According to the model, it is estimated that over the standard period (1999~2005), there might be economic benefits of about 31 bilion Won/year in Seoul due to increasing temperature than in the 1980s. The REC is also predicted to be gradually reduced across the Korean peninsula since the 2020s. These results suggest that Korea will gain economic benefits in the REC sector during the 21st century as temperature increases under global warming scenarios.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제60권5호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2018

This study aims to effective survey on actual condition for impact and vulnerability assessment on climate change in agriculture and rural community (limited to rural water and agricultural infrastructure, Paragraph 3, Article 2 of the Rearrangement of Agricultural and Fishing Villages Act) entrusted to Korea Rural Community Corporation based on the Law (Paragraph 2, Article 47 of the Framework Act on Agriculture, Rural community and Food industry). The results are summarized as follows. The rural water was divided into three categories (abnormal climate, water use, and flood control), and 31 indicators were selected. The reservoirs were divided into four categories, and 20 indicators were selected. The pumping stations were divided into two categories, 7 indicators, and the drainage pump stations were divided into two categories, 5 indicators were chosen. A survey on actual condition of each indicator was conducted and the result of the impact assessment was calculated. The 65 rural water showed values ranged from 0.855 to 1.308. The reservoir ranged from 0.966 to 23.338 as a result of the impact assessment on the 16 indicators. The pumping station was able to calculate the results of the safety inspection and the thorough safety inspection, and the drainage pump station was able to calculate only the result of the safety inspection. It is judged that it will be necessary to secure and analyze data on indicators with no data in the future. The results of this research can be utilized as baseline data that can deal with climate change preemptively.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제12권5호
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• pp.383-393
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• 2003

IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)는 향후 100년 동안 지구의 평균기온이 $1^{\circ}C$에서 $3.5^{\circ}C$ 상승할 경우, 각 기후대가 극방향으로 약 150~550km 이동할 것으로 예측하고 있으나, 과거 기후변동 연구결과들은 삼림의 이동속도를 100년간 4~200km로 추정하고 있어 식생이 기후대의 이동을 따라가지 못하여 사멸되는 지역이 발생할 것으로 예측되고 있다. 약 960km의 남북으로 긴 지형적 특성을 가진 한반도 역시 이러한 영향을 벗어나지 못할 것으로 예측되고 있어 기존의 기후변화 시나리오와 함께 삼림의 이동성을 고려한 영향연구가 요구된다. 본 연구는 IPCC의 새로운 기후변화 시나리오인 SRES 시나리오의 대기대순환모형(Global Climate Model, GCM) 결과와 AIM(Asia Integrated Model)/Impact[Korea] 모형을 이용하여 제작된 Holdridge 생물기후분류의 연구성과를 이용하여, CO2농도 배증시의 한반도지역의 자연식생 영향과 적응 가능성을 삼림의 이동성을 고려하여 평가하였다. 삼림의 이동속도를 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0(km/yr)로 변화시키며 2100년 한반도 자연식생의 기후 변화 영향을 평가한 결과, (1) 목본식물의 이동속도가 년간 1km 이상일 경우 삼림 피해가 미미하게 나타났으나 (2) 이동이 느린 0.25km/yr의 경우, 생육위험지역을 포함한 시나리오별 전체 피해규모는 A2(17.47%), A1(9.97%), B1(6.21%), B2(5.08%) 순으로 나타났으며, 삼림소멸의 경우는 A2, B2 시나리오에서 발생하며 A2 시나리오에서 한반도의 약 2.1%로 가장 크게 발생하였다. (3) 전반적인 생육위험 지역의 분포는 함흥만, 영흥만의 동해안지역에 집중되었으며, A2 시나리오의 극단적 소멸예상지역은 금오산, 가야산, 팔공산을 연결하는 지역에서 발생하는 것으로 나타났다.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제63권
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• pp.159-184
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• 2014

Climate change is one of the biggest dangers facing all living creatures in the earth. It has been understood that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activity is the cause of climate change. Cars are responsible for around 12% of total EU emissions of CO2, the main greenhouse gas. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC) is an international environmental treaty adopted at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) on 9 May, 1992, which entered into force on 21 March 1994. The European Commission first adopted a Community Strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from cars in 1995. On 19 December 2007, the European Commission proposed "Proposal for Setting emission performance standards for new passenger cars to reduce CO2 emissions", which was adopted on 23 April 2009 as "Regulation (EC) No 443/2009". Prior to submitting the Proposal, the European Commission performed impact assessment and prepared impact assessment report which was reviewed by the Impact Assessment Board. The objective of this Regulation is to set emission performance standards for new passenger cars registered in the Community, which forms part of the Community's integrated approach to reducing CO2 emissions from light-duty vehicles while ensuring the proper functioning of the internal market. In the event that a manufacturer fails to meet its target, it will be required to pay an excess emissions premium in respect of each calendar year from 2012 onwards. On 11 March 2014, Regulation (EC) No 333/2014 amending Regulation (EC) No 443/2009 was adopted. Regulation (EC) No 333/2014 amends Regulation (EC) No 443/2009 to implement the modalities of meeting the 95g CO2/km target for new passenger cars to be reached in 2020. As industry benefits from indications of the regulatory regime that would apply beyond 2020, the Regulation includes a further review to take place by, at the latest, 31 December 2014.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제55권3호
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• pp.13-24
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• 2013

Agriculture is affected directly by climate conditions and changes, and it is necessary to understand the impact of climate change on agricultural reservoirs which are the main water resources for paddy fields in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the anti-drought capacity including water supply capability (WSC) and drought response ability (DRA) of agricultural reservoirs based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of CanESM2 (The Second Generation Earth System Model) provided by CCCma (Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis). The WSC and DRA were estimated using frequency analysis and runs theory. The six reservoirs (Yooshin, Nogok, Kumsung, Songgok, Gapyung, Seoma) were selected considering geographical characteristics and design criteria of reservoir capacity. In case of Seoma reservoir, more than 10 year drought return period (DRP), the variation of the WSC was estimated larger than the others. In case of Yooshin reservior (2~5 DRP) DRC was decreased in 2025s under RCP8.5. These results could be utilized for agricultural reservoirs management and future design criteria considering climate change impacts on paddy irrigation.