• 대기
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.309-318
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• 2009

Vulnerability to heat was examined for populations of 6 major cities in South Korea (Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan). Daily excess mortality and maximum temperature from 1991 to 2005 were employed in this study. The results show that the standardized mortality increase associated with a $1^{\circ}C$ increase in daily maximum temperature above the city-specific threshold explains the heat acclimatization effect better than the threshold temperature itself. The estimated increase in mortality (standardized per 10 million population) associated with a $1^{\circ}C$ increase in temperature above the threshold is 4.8 in Incheon, 4.7 in Seoul, 4.3 in Daejeon, 2.8 in Gwangju, 2.4 in Daegu, and 1.5 in Busan, well reflecting the latitudinal locations and local climates of each city. Climate models project more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting heat waves in most land areas in both hemispheres in the 21st century under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. In order to mitigate the adverse human health impacts due to excess heat, more detailed characteristics of acclimatization to heat need to be understood and quantified.

• 대기
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.355-365
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• 2008

Synoptic and climatological characteristics of heat waves over Korea and Europe as well as their biometeorological impacts were compared. In July of 1994, excess deaths of about 2,388 in the population of South Korea are estimated by the modified excess death calculation algorithm ofKysely (2004). The excess deaths correspond to the net mortality increase of 12.5% in July of 1994 if we compare the estimated value to the expected number of deaths in this month (i.e., about 19,171). The comparative study of heat waves in Korea and Europe shows that the record-breaking heat waves in both regions are closely associated with prolonged droughts. In particular, reduction of soil moisture, precipitation and cloud cover and enhancement of insolation during the drought periods are very likely to be related to the increase in the intensity and the duration ofheat waves. Climate models predict that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves in the 21 st century will be greatly enhanced in both areas. In order to reduce the biometeorological and socioeconomic impacts due to heat waves, not only the development of heat-related mortality prediction model that can be widely applied to many climate regimes, but also studies on the climatological association between extreme temperatures and abnormal hydrological cycle are needed.

• 생태와환경
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.395-408
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• 2013

환경상태는 생물이 적합도 (번식성공 또는 생존율)를 극대화하기 위해서 초기생활사의 변화를 초래할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 온도변화와 온도에 따른 수상레저활동 인구변화가 어류의 초기 생활사 특성, 즉 체세포 성장(성장속도), 번식세포 (생식소) 발달 그리고 누적스트레스의 회복과정과 어떠한 관계가 있는지를 동적상태의존모델을 이용하여 분석하였다. 우선 어류의 초기 생활사 특성이 취식행동에 영향을 받는다고 가정하였고, 이러한 관계를 고려하여 어류의 일반 생활사 모델을 개발하였다. 모델은 성장속도와 번식세포(생식소)의 발달이 온도가 상승함에 (단, 성장속도를 감소시키는 임계온도보다는 낮은) 따라 빨라졌으며, 또한 체내에 누적되는 스트레스도 함께 증가하였다. 흥미롭게도 온도가 높을 때에는 수상레저활동 인구의 증가는 성장속도와 생식소의 발달을 느리게 했지만, 스트레스의 누적은 가속화시켰다. 그러나 온도가 낮을 때에는 초기 생활사에 대한 수상레저활동 인구의 영향이 상대적으로 낮았다. 또한 최적취식행동은 높은 온도에서는 수상레저활동 인구의 변화에 관계없이 항상 높았지만, 낮은 온도에서는 수상레저활동 인구가 증가할수록 급격히 감소하였다. 초기성장기간 동안의 생존율은 온도가 낮아지고 수상레저활동 인구가 적을 때에는 취식행동이나 인간 활동에 따른 어류의 사망률 증감이 생존률 변이에 영향을 주었다. 반대로 온도가 높아지고 수상레저활동 인구가 많을 때의 생존율은 취식행동이나 사망률에 관계없이 항상 낮았다. 끝으로 본 연구를 통해 기후변화와 수상레저활동 인구변화와 관련된 어류의 초기 생활사를 수생태계 보전전략이나 건강성 평가분석에 포함시키는 것은 분석의 정확성과 정밀성을 향상시킬 수 있을 것이라 사료된다.

• 적정기술학회지
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.118-125
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• 2019

제 5차 IPCC보고서(2014)에 의하면, 지구온난화의 원인은 온실가스(GHG)에 기인하며 가장 중요한 화석연료의 연소에서 발생하는 CO₂, NO₂, 메탄 등이다. IPCC는 2099년까지 지구 온도가 3.7℃ 상승하고 해수면은 0.63 m 상승할 것으로 예측하였다. 기후변화는 SDGs의 매우 중요한 한 부분이며, 그중 지구온난화는 잠재적으로 인류 건강에 가장 큰 위협이며 여러 다양한 질병의 원인이다. 만약 현재의 가스 배출과 토지이용의 추세가 계속된다면 미래의 세대는 질병, 부상, 자연재난으로 인한 사망, 감염, 영양부족, 대기오염으로 인한 사망율 등 매우 심각한 상황에 직면하게 될 것이다. 이 글에서는 홍수, 가뭄, 열 스트레스. 대기오염, 물부족, 영양실조, 전염성질환, 매개질환 등 지구기후변화와 이와 관련된 자연재난과 인류 건강의 관계를 조명하여 보았다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.109-120
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• 2010

극단적 폭염은 온대지역의 여름철 사망률과 유병률을 증가시키는 기상재해이다. 기후모델의 예측결과에 따르면 미래 폭염의 강도와 빈도는 더욱 증가할 것으로 보고되고 있다. 이 연구는 국내 7개 대도시의 폭염유발기단과 일 사망률의 증가와의 연관성을 제시하며, 이를 기반으로 운영 중인 고온건강경보시스템을 소개한다. 1982년에서 2007년까지 관측된 기후자료로부터 종관기단분류기법이 적용되어 각 도시의 여름철의 각 날에 대한 기단분류가 수행되었다. 폭염유발기단과 일 사망률 증가와의 연관성 연구 결과, 고온건조(DT) 기단과 고온다습+(MT+) 기단의 두 기단에서 가장 높은 사망률 증가 연관성이 관찰되었다. 따라서 DT와 MT+ 기단 내의 기상요소들을 이용하여 초과사망자수를 종속변수로 하는 중회귀 분석을 통한 초과사망자수 예측알고리즘이 제작되었다. 또한, 각 대도시들마다 다르게 나타나는 지역적인 기후순응 특성에 입각하여 각 도시별 예측알고리즘에서 사용되는 독립변수가 선정되고, 고온건강경보시스템의 고온건강주의보 및 경보 기준인 초과사망자수 기준이 설정되었다. 지구온난화 추세 하의 고온건강경보시스템은 대규모 건강이상을 야기할 수 있는 폭염에 대한 효과적인 정보를 대도시 시민들에게 제공할 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.451-463
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• 2016

We explore the impact of Chinese future air pollutant emissions on ozone air quality in Northeast Asia (NEA) and health in South-Korea using an assessment framework including ICAMS (The Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System) and BenMAP (The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program). The emissions data sets from the climate change scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (emission scenarios, EMSO), are used to simulate ozone air quality in NEA in the current (1996~2005, 2000s), the near future (2016~2025, 2020s) and the distant future (2046~2055, 2050s). Furthermore, the simulated ozone changes in the 2050s are used to analyze ozone-related premature mortality and economic cost in South-Korea. While different EMSOs are applied to the China region, fixed EMSO are used for other country regions to isolate the impacts of the Chinese emissions. Predicted ozone changes in NEA are distinctively affected by large changes in NOx emission over most of China region. Comparing the 2020s with the 2000s situation, the largest increase in mean ozone concentrations in NEA is simulated under RCP 8.5 and similarly small increases are under other RCPs. In the 2050s in NEA, the largest increase in mean ozone concentrations is simulated under RCP 6.0 and leads to the occurrence of the highest premature mortalities and economic costs in South-Korea. Whereas, the largest decrease is simulated under RCP 4.5 leads to the highest avoided premature mortality numbers and economic costs. Our results suggest that continuous reduction of NOx emissions across the China region under an assertive climate change mitigation scenario like RCP 4.5 leads to improved future ozone air quality and health benefits in the NEA countries including South-Korea.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제40권5호
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• pp.355-366
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• 2014

Objectives: This study seeks to evaluate the vulnerability assessment of the human health sector for $PM_{10}$, which is reflected in the regional characteristics and related disease mortality rates for $PM_{10}$ in Busan over the period of 2006-2010. Methods: According to the vulnerability concept suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), vulnerability to $PM_{10}$ is comprised of the categories of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The indexes of the exposure and sensitivity categories indicate positive effects, while the adaptive capacity index indicates a negative effect on vulnerability to $PM_{10}$. Variables of each category were standardized by the rescaling method, and each regional relative vulnerability was computed through the vulnerability index calculation formula. Results: The regions with a high exposure index are Jung-Gu (transportation region) and Saha-Gu (industrial region). Major factors determining the exposure index are the $PM_{10}$ concentration, days of $PM_{10}{\geq}50$, ${\mu}g/m^3$, and $PM_{10}$ emissions. The regions that show a high sensitivity index are urban and rural regions; these commonly have a high mortality rate for related disease and vulnerable populations. The regions that have a high adaptive capacity index are Jung-Gu, Gangseo-Gu, and Busanjin-Gu, all of which have a high level of economic/welfare/health care factors. The high-vulnerability synthesis of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indexes show that Dong-Gu and Seo-Gu have a risk for $PM_{10}$ potential effects and a low adaptive capacity. Conclusions: This study presents the vulnerability index to $PM_{10}$ through a relative comparison using quantitative evaluation to draw regional priorities. Therefore, it provides basic data to reflect environmental health influences in favor of an adaptive policy limiting damage to human health caused by vulnerability to $PM_{10}$.

• 생태와환경
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.319-331
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• 2013

Recent climate change, which is mostly ascribed to anthropogenic activities, is believed to be a major factor leading to biodiversity decreases and ecosystem service deteriorations. I have reviewed recent studies on climate change effects for many ecological processes involved with plants, in order to improve our understanding of the nature of ecological complexity. Plants in general have better growth and productivity under high levels of $CO_2$, although the long term effects of such $CO_2$ fertilizers are still controversial. Over the last 30 years, the Earth has been greening, particularly at higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, perhaps due to a relaxation of climatic constraints. Human appropriation of net primary productivity (NPP), which corresponds up to 1/3 of global NPP, is ultimately responsible for climate change and biodiversity decreases. Climate change causes phenological variations in plants, especially in regards to spring flowering and fall leaf coloring. Many plants migrate polewards and towards higher altitudes to seek more appropriate climates. On the other hand, tree mortality and population declines have recently been reported in many continents. Landscape disturbance not only hinders the plant migration, but also makes it difficult to predict the plants' potential habitats. Plant and animal population declines, as well as local extinctions, are largely due to the disruption of species interactions through temporal mismatching. Temperature and $CO_2$ increase rates in Korea are higher than global means. The degree of landscape disturbances is also relatively high. Furthermore, long-term data on individual species responses and species interactions are lacking or quite limited in Korea. This review emphasizes the complex nature of species responses to climate change at both global and local scales. In order to keep pace with the direction and speed of climate change, it is urgently necessary to observe and analyze the patterns of phenology, migration, and trophic interactions of plants and animals in Korea's landscape.

• 대기
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.45-53
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• 2007

In order to investigate the impacts of heat wave on human health, cluster analysis of meteorological elements (e.g., temperature, dewpoint, sea level pressure, visibility, cloud amount, and wind components) for identifying offensive synoptic air masses is employed. Meteorological data at Seoul during the past 30 years are used. The daily death data at Seoul are also employed. Occurrence frequency of heat waves which is defined by daily maximum temperature greater than the threshold temperature (i.e., $31.2^{\circ}C$) was analyzed. The result shows that the frequency and duration of heat waves at Seoul are increasing during the past 30 years. In addition, the increasing trend of the frequency and duration clearly appears in late spring and early autumn as well as summer. Factor analysis shows that 65.1% of the total variance can be explained by 4 components which are linearly independent. Eight clusters (or synoptic air masses) were classified and found to be optimal for representing the summertime air masses at Seoul, Korea. The results exhibit that cluster-mean values of meteorological variables of an offensive air mass (or cluster) are closely correlated with the observed and standardized deaths.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제43권3호
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• pp.240-246
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• 2017

Objectives: This study was conducted to evaluate the vulnerability of the human health sector to $PM_{10}$ due to climate change in Incheon over the period of 2005-2014. Methods: Vulnerability to $PM_{10}$ consists of the three categories of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The indexes for climate exposure and sensitivity indicate positive effects, while adaptive capacity shows a negative effect on vulnerability to $PM_{10}$. The variables in each category were standardized by the rescaling method, and respective relative regional vulnerability was analyzed through the vulnerability index calculation formula of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results: Regions with a high exposure index were the western and northern urban areas with industrial complexes adjacent to a highway, including Bupyong-gu and Seo-gu. Major factors determining the climate exposure index were the $PM_{10}$ concentration, days of $PM_{10}$ >= $100{\mu}g/m^3$, and $PM_{10}$ emissions. The regions showing a high sensitivity index were urban regions with high populations; these commonly had a high mortality rate for related diseases and vulnerable populations. Conclusions: This study is able to support regionally adjusted adaptation policies and the quantitative background of policy priority since it provides information on the regional health vulnerability to $PM_{10}$ due to climate change in Incheon.