• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.95-103
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• 1996

Purpose : A retrospective analysis for patients with oropharyngeal carcinoma who were treated with radiation was performed to assess the results of treatment and patterns of failure, and to identify the factors that might influence survival. materials and methods : From March 1985 through June 1993, 53 patients with oropharyngeal carcinoma were treated with either radiation therapy alone or combination of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy at the Department of Radiation Oncology, Kyungpook National University Hospital. Patients' ages ranged from 31 to 73 years with a median age of 54 years. There were 47 men and 6 women, Forty-two Patients ($79.2\%$) had squamous cell carcinoma, 10 patients ($18.9\%$) had undifferentiated carcinoma and 1 patient ($19\%$) had adenoid cystic carcinoma. There were 2 patients with stage I, 12 patients with stage II, 12 Patients with stage III and 27 patients with stage IV. According to the TNM classification, patients were distributed as follows: T1 7, T2 28, T3 10, T4 7, TX 1, and N0 17, Nl 13, N2 21, N3 2. The primary tumor sites were tonsillar region in 36 patients ($67.9\%$), base of the tongue in 12 patients ($22.6\%$), and soft palate in 5 patients ($9.4\%$). Twenty-five patients were treated with radiation therapy alone and twenty-eight Patients were treated with one to three courses of chemotherapy followed by radiation therapy. Chemotherapeutic regimens used were either CF (cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil) or CVB (cisplatin, vincristine and bleomycin). Radiation therapy was delivered 180-200 cGy daily, five times a week using 6 MV X-ray with or without 8-10 MeV electron beams A tumor dose ranged from 4500 cGy to 7740 cGy with a median dose of 7100 cGy. The follow-up time ranged from 4 months to 99 months with a median of 21 months. Results : Thirty-seven patients ($69.8\%$) achieved a CR (complete response) and PR (partial response) in 16 patients ($30.2\%$) after radiation therapy. The overall survival rates were $47\%$ at 2 years and $42\%$ at 3 years, respectively. The median survival time was 23 months. Overall stage (p=0.02) and response to radiation therapy (p=0.004) were significant prognostic factors for overall survival. The 2-year disease-free survival rate was $45.5\%$. T-stage (p=0.03), N-stage (p=0.04) and overall stage (P=0.04) were significant prognostic factors for disease-free survival. Age, sex, histology, primary site of the tumor, radiation dose, combination of chemotherapy were not significantly associated with disease-free survival. Among evaluable 32 Patients with CR to radiation therapy, 12 patients were considered to have failed Among these, 8 patients failed locoregionally and 4 Patients failed distantly. Conclusion : T-stage, N-stage and overall stage were significant prognostic factors for disease-free survival in the treatment of oropharyngeal cancer Since locoregional failure was the predominant pattern of relapse, potential methods to improve locoregional control with radiation therapy should be attempted. More controlled clinical, trials should be completed before acceptance of chemotherapy as a part of treatment of oropharyngeal carcinoma.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.119-133
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• 2020

Fama asserted that in an efficient market, we can't make a trading rule that consistently outperforms the average stock market returns. This study aims to suggest a machine learning algorithm to improve the trading performance of an intraday short volatility strategy applying asymmetric volatility spillover effect, and analyze its trading performance improvement. Generally stock market volatility has a negative relation with stock market return and the Korean stock market volatility is influenced by the US stock market volatility. This volatility spillover effect is asymmetric. The asymmetric volatility spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that the US stock market volatility up and down differently influence the next day's volatility of the Korean stock market. We collected the S&P 500 index, VIX, KOSPI 200 index, and V-KOSPI 200 from 2008 to 2018. We found the negative relation between the S&P 500 and VIX, and the KOSPI 200 and V-KOSPI 200. We also documented the strong volatility spillover effect from the VIX to the V-KOSPI 200. Interestingly, the asymmetric volatility spillover was also found. Whereas the VIX up is fully reflected in the opening volatility of the V-KOSPI 200, the VIX down influences partially in the opening volatility and its influence lasts to the Korean market close. If the stock market is efficient, there is no reason why there exists the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. It is a counter example of the efficient market hypothesis. To utilize this type of anomalous volatility spillover pattern, we analyzed the intraday volatility selling strategy. This strategy sells short the Korean volatility market in the morning after the US stock market volatility closes down and takes no position in the volatility market after the VIX closes up. It produced profit every year between 2008 and 2018 and the percent profitable is 68%. The trading performance showed the higher average annual return of 129% relative to the benchmark average annual return of 33%. The maximum draw down, MDD, is -41%, which is lower than that of benchmark -101%. The Sharpe ratio 0.32 of SVS strategy is much greater than the Sharpe ratio 0.08 of the Benchmark strategy. The Sharpe ratio simultaneously considers return and risk and is calculated as return divided by risk. Therefore, high Sharpe ratio means high performance when comparing different strategies with different risk and return structure. Real world trading gives rise to the trading costs including brokerage cost and slippage cost. When the trading cost is considered, the performance difference between 76% and -10% average annual returns becomes clear. To improve the performance of the suggested volatility trading strategy, we used the well-known SVM algorithm. Input variables include the VIX close to close return at day t-1, the VIX open to close return at day t-1, the VK open return at day t, and output is the up and down classification of the VK open to close return at day t. The training period is from 2008 to 2014 and the testing period is from 2015 to 2018. The kernel functions are linear function, radial basis function, and polynomial function. We suggested the modified-short volatility strategy that sells the VK in the morning when the SVM output is Down and takes no position when the SVM output is Up. The trading performance was remarkably improved. The 5-year testing period trading results of the m-SVS strategy showed very high profit and low risk relative to the benchmark SVS strategy. The annual return of the m-SVS strategy is 123% and it is higher than that of SVS strategy. The risk factor, MDD, was also significantly improved from -41% to -29%.