• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.189-196
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• 2010

It is never an easy task to physically randomize the sequence of cards. For instance, US 1970 draft lottery resulted in a social turmoil since the outcome sequence of 366 birthday numbers showed a significant relationship with the input order (Wikipedia, "Draft Lottery 1969", Retrieved 2009/05/01). We are motivated by Laplace's 1825 book titled Philosophical Essay on Probabilities that says "Suppose that the numbers 1, 2, ..., 100 are placed, according to their natural ordering, in an urn, and suppose further that, after having shaken the urn, to shuffle the numbers, one draws one number. It is clear that if the shuffling has been properly done, each number will have the same chance of being drawn. But if we fear that there are small differences between them depending on the order in which the numbers were put into the urn, we can decrease these differences considerably by placing these numbers in a second urn in the order in which they are drawn from the first urn, and then shaking the second urn to shuffle the numbers. These differences, already imperceptible in the second urn, would be diminished more and more by using a third urn, a fourth urn, &c." (translated by Andrew 1. Dale, 1995, Springer. pp. 35-36). Laplace foresaw what would happen to us in 150 years later, and, even more, suggested the possible tool to handle the problem. But he did omit the detailed arguments for the solution. Thus we would like to write the supplement in modern terms for Laplace in this research note. We formulate the problem with a lottery box model, to which Markov chain theory can be applied. By applying Markov chains repeatedly, one expects the uniform distribution on k states as stationary distribution. Additionally, we show that the probability of even-number of successes in binomial distribution with trials and the success probability $\theta$ approaches to 0.5, as n increases to infinity. Our theory is illustrated to the cases of truncated geometric distribution and the US 1970 draft lottery.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.379-386
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• 2005

Among various kinds of hearing aids which have been developed so far. the conventional air conduction hearing aids have some problems such as the acoustic distortion, an howling effect due to acoustic feedback. Another type of hearing aid. the cochlear implant system can be applied to the profound imparied person. However. it shows the disadvantage that there is no possibility of recovery of the acoustic organ such as ossicle. On the other hand. the implantable middle ear heaving device directly vibratos the ossicular chain and has better sound qualify. good cosmetics for appearance. and wide frequency responses so that it can overcome the defects or the conventional hearing aids. In this paper, a mathematical modeling and a momentum equation derivation of the DET has been performed. For the optimization of the structure dimension generating maximal vibrating force of the DET. the computer simulation using a finite element analysis (FEA) software has been performed. Also. the vibrating transducer has been designed to make the frequency characteristics or the transducer be similar to those of the normal middle ear. Through the experimental results, the measured vibration characteristics of the DET has been evaluated to verify the performance for the application to implantable middle ear hearing devices.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.185-191
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• 2004

A mooring system can be applied to keep the position of a floating structures. In this study, the structural analysis is carried out to analyze the dynamic characteristics of a mooring line for a floating breakwater. A three-dimensional equations of motion for a submerged chain are derived. Bending stiffness is considered for the necessary restoring force in the regions of zero tension. A fortran program is to be developed by employing finite difference method. In the algorithm, an implicit time integration and Newton-Raphson iteration are adopted. The results of simulation show good agreement in tension response pattern with the experimental results of a reference. The results of this study can contribute for the design of mooring system for a floating breakwater.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.89-95
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• 2009

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the safety under extreme environmental conditions and the dynamic safety under service environment conditions, of oceanographic buoy mooring systems consisting of a variety of materials, including chain, wire rope, nylon rope, and polypropylene rope. For the static safety assessment of a mooring system, after the calculation of external forces and the division of a mooring system into finite elements, the numerical integral was conducted to yield the elemental static tension until satisfying the geometrical convergence condition. To evaluate the dynamic safety, various processes were considered, including data collection about the anticipated areas for mooring, a determination of the parameters for the interpretation, the interpretation of the dynamic characteristics based on an analytic equation that takes into account the heave motion effect of a buoy hull and a mooring system, and a fatigue analysis of the linear cumulative damage. Based on the analysis results, a supplementary proposal for a wire rope that has a fracture in an actual mooring area was established.

• Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.62-67
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• 1993

The microscopic origin of nonlinear optical properties of quinoline derivatives have been investigated theoretically using MOPAC-AM1 method. In order to prepare promising nonlinear optical active polymers of polyquinoline derivatives, the optimized positions of strong electron donor and electron acceptor are determined in the heterocyclic ring for the energetically favorable structures. For each compound, the effect of the substituted positions on the microscopic nonlinear coefficients were investigated. Polyquinoline was already evaluated to have outstanding physical and mechanical properties so that its monomeric analogues were designed and synthesized for developing new second and third order nonlinear optical main chain polymers. Using the MOPAC-AM1 method, properties calculated include the intrinsic ground-state dipole moments, the polarizabilities, first and second hyperpolarizabilities under the condition of finite-field $(\omega$ = 0).

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.197-197
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• 2016

Forecasting future drought events in a region plays a major role in water management and risk assessment of drought occurrences. The creeping characteristics of drought make it possible to mitigate drought's effects with accurate forecasting models. Drought forecasts are inevitably plagued by uncertainties, making it necessary to derive forecasts in a probabilistic framework. In this study, a new probabilistic scheme is proposed to forecast droughts, in which a discrete-time finite state-space hidden Markov model (HMM) is used aggregated with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP) precipitation projection (HMM-RCP). The 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) is employed to assess the drought severity over the selected five stations in South Kore. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used for inference on the model parameters which includes several hidden states and the state specific parameters. We perform an RCP precipitation projection transformed SPI (RCP-SPI) weight-corrected post-processing for the HMM-based drought forecasting to derive a probabilistic forecast that considers uncertainties. Results showed that the HMM-RCP forecast mean values, as measured by forecasting skill scores, are much more accurate than those from conventional models and a climatology reference model at various lead times over the study sites. In addition, the probabilistic forecast verification technique, which includes the ranked probability skill score and the relative operating characteristic, is performed on the proposed model to check the performance. It is found that the HMM-RCP provides a probabilistic forecast with satisfactory evaluation for different drought severity categories, even with a long lead time. The overall results indicate that the proposed HMM-RCP shows a powerful skill for probabilistic drought forecasting.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.479-487
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• 2023

Recently, the destructive power of typhoons is continuously increasing owing to global warming. In a situation where the installation of floating wind turbines is increasing worldwide, concerns about the huge loss and collapse of floating offshore wind turbines owing to strong typhoons are deepening. A new type of disconnectable mooring system must be developed for the safe operation of floating offshore wind turbines. A new submersible mooring pulley considered in this study is devised to more easily attach or detach the floating of shore wind turbine with mooring lines compared with other disconnectable mooring apparatuses. To investigate the structural safety of the initial design of submersible mooring pulley that can be applied to an 8MW-class floating type offshore wind turbine, scale-down structural models were developed using a 3-D printer and structural tests were performed on the models. For the structural tests of the scale-down models, tensile specimens of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene material that was used in the 3-D printing were prepared, and the material properties were evaluated by conducting the tensile tests. The finite element analysis (FEA) of submersible mooring pulley was performed by applying the material properties obtained from the tensile tests and the same load and boundary conditions as in the scale-down model structural tests. Through the FEA, the structural weak parts on the submersible mooring pulley were reviewed. The structural model tests were conducted considering the main load conditions of submersible mooring pulley, and the FEA and test results were compared for the locations that exceeded the maximum tensile stress of the material. The results of the FEA and structural model tests indicated that the connection structure of the body and the wheel was weak in operating conditions and that of the body and the chain stopper was weak in mooring conditions. The results of this study enabled to experimentally verify the structural safety of the initial design of submersible mooring pulley. The study results can be usefully used to improve the structural strength of submersible mooring pulley in a detailed design stage.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1992.10a
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• pp.3-3
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• 1992

타이어 Curing공정은 공기압 타이어의 제조시 상당히 정교한 단계를 거쳐서 이루어지며, 이는 타이어 설계에 큰 영향을 줄 뿐만아니라, 타이어의 성능에도 관건이 있다. 본 연구에서는 유한요소법을 이용하여 타이어의 molding 공정을 분석하였다. 유한요소해석 프로그램인 MARC가 Cured 타이어 내부의 Curing Bladder 팽창과정해석에 이용되었다. 비압축성 요소로 Curing Bladder를 모형화하였으며, MARC의 접촉문제해석기법(contact option)을 이용하여 Cured 타이어 내부와 Curing Bladder 외부의 접촉부위를 Simulation하였다. 본 연구의 주요 관심내용으로서는 Curing Bladder의 형상변화에 따른 Curing Bladder의 팽창거동해석과, Cured타이어와 Curing Bladder의 접촉부위에서 얻을 수 있는 접촉압력의 비교.검토이다. 타이어 Curing시 타이어와 Bladder의 Contact과정을 해석하여, 아래와 같은 결과를 도출하였다. Bladder의 형상은 Cylinderical 형상 보다는 Toroidal 형태가 접촉압 분포의 균일성 및 크기 측면에 서 우수한 것으로 판단된다. Curing Bladder의 증심선 부위 보다 이에서 약간 떨어진 부위에서 최대 접촉압력이 발생되며, 이는 타이어 내면의 굴곡현상과 깊은 관련이 있윰 것으로 사료된다. 타이어 Bead부의 Carcass 자연평형현상이 유지된 제품을 얻기위해서는, Side-Bead구간의 접촉압력 증가가 필요하며, 이를 위하여는 Bladder 형상이 Cylinderical 보다는 Toroidal 형태가 유리하고, Bead부의 Gage Down, 전체직경의 증가 및 높이의 증가가 유리한 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구 결과를 이용하여, 타이어 Curing과정에서 발생되는 불량제품의 원인파악 및 타이어 설계자가 원하는 제품생산의 불가능한 원인을 파악하는데 도움을 줄 것이다.를 C의 structure와 pointer를 기반으로 하게끔 변경시키고 이에 따르는 제반 변경 사항을 수정 보완하여 프로그램의 분석을 용이하게 하며 기능의 변경 및 추가가 수월하게 하였고 메모리를 동적으로 관리할 수 있게 하였다. 또한 기존의 smpl에 디버깅용 함수 및 설비(facility) 제어용 함수를 추가하여 시뮬레이션 프로그램 작성을 용이하게 하였다. 예를 들면 who_server(), who_queue(), pop_Q(), push_Q(), pop_server(), push_server(), we(), wf(), printfct() 같은 함수들이다. 또한 동시에 발생되는 사건들의 순서를 조종하기 위해, 동시에 발생할 수 있는 각각의 사건에 우선순위를 두어 이 우선 순위에 의하여 사건 리스트(event list)에서 자동적으로 사건들의 순서가 결정되도록 확장하였으며, 설비 제어방식에 있어서도 FIFO, LIFO, 우선 순위 방식등을 선택할 수 있도록 확장하였다. SIMPLE는 자료구조 및 프로그램이 공개되어 있으므로 프로그래머가 원하는 기능을 쉽게 추가할 수 있는 장점도 있다. 아울러 SMPLE에서 새로이 추가된 자료구조와 함수 및 설비제어 방식등을 활용하여 실제 중형급 시스템에 대한 시뮬레이션 구현과 시스템 분석의 예를 보인다._3$", chain segment, with the activation energy of carriers from the shallow trap with 0.4[eV], in he amorphous regions.의 증발산율은 우기의 기상자료를 이용하여 구한 결과 0.05 - 0.10 mm/hr 의 범위로서 이로 인한 강우손실량은 큰 의미가 없음을 알았다.재발이 나타난 3례의 환자를 제외한 9례 (75%)에서는 현재까지 재발소견을 보이지 않고 있다. 이러한 결과는 다른 보고자들과 유사한 결과를 보이고 있지만 아직까지 증례가 많지 않기 때문에 생존율을 얻

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.27-35
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• 2015

We analyze an M/G/1/K queueing system with queue-length dependent service and arrival rates. There are a single server and a buffer with finite capacity K including a customer in service. The customers are served by a first-come-first-service basis. We put two thresholds $L_1$ and $L_2$($${\geq_-}L_1$$ ) on the buffer. If the queue length at the service initiation epoch is less than the threshold $L_1$, the service time of customers follows $S_1$ with a mean of ${\mu}_1$ and the arrival of customers follows a Poisson process with a rate of ${\lambda}_1$. When the queue length at the service initiation epoch is equal to or greater than $L_1$ and less than $L_2$, the service time is changed to $S_2$ with a mean of $${\mu}_2{\geq_-}{\mu}_1$$. The arrival rate is still ${\lambda}_1$. Finally, if the queue length at the service initiation epoch is greater than $L_2$, the arrival rate of customers are also changed to a value of $${\lambda}_2({\leq_-}{\lambda}_1)$$ and the mean of the service times is ${\mu}_2$. By using the embedded Markov chain method, we derive queue length distribution at departure epochs. We also obtain the queue length distribution at an arbitrary time by the supplementary variable method. Finally, performance measures such as loss probability and mean waiting time are presented.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 1991.10a
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• pp.87-102
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• 1991

It has been reported that the failure of Carsington Dam in Eng1and occured due to the existence of a thin yellow clay layer which was not identified during the design work, and due to pre-existing shears of the clay layer. The slope stability analyses during the design work, which utilized traditional circular arc type failure method and neglected the existence of the clay layer, showed a safety factor of 1.4. However, the post-failure analyses which utilized translational failure mode considering the clay layer and the pre-existing shear deformation revealed the reduction of safety factor to unity. The post-failure analysis assumed 10。 inclination of the horizontal forces onto each slice based on the results of finite element analyses. In this paper, Bishop's simplified method, Janbu method, and Morgenstern-Price method were used for the comparison of both circular and translational failure analysis methods. The effects of the pre-existing shears and subsquent movement were also considered by varying the soil strength parameters and the pore pressure ratio according to the given soi1 parameters. The results showed factor of safefy 1.387 by Bishop's simplified method(STABL) which assumed circular arc failure surface and disregarding yellow clay layer and pre-failure material properties. Also the results showed factor of safety 1.093 by Janbu method(STABL) and 0.969 by Morgenstern-Price method(MALE) which assumed wedge failure surface and considerd yellow clay layer using post failure material properties. In addition, dam behavior was simulated by Cam-Clay model FEM program. The effects of pore pressure changes with loading and consolidation, and strength reduction near or at failure were also considered based on properly assumed stress-strain relationship and pore pressure characteristics. The results showed that the failure was initiated at the yellow clay layer and propagated through other zones by showing that stress and displacement were concentrated at the yel1ow clay layer.