• Title/Summary/Keyword: causes of risk

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Search on the Marine accidents Analysis Methods

  • Quan, Vu Minh;Yang, Won-Jea
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.199-201
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    • 2015
  • Nowadays, the issue of maritime safety is an extremely important issue in the maritime industry and Human' Stress is one of the biggest causes of maritime accidents. The purpose of this study was to research and compare the risk marine accidents analysis methods and find the methods which used to analysis data of the human' stress and obtained the relationship between it and the risk of maritime accidents.

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Overall risk analysis of shield TBM tunnelling using Bayesian Networks (BN) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) (베이지안 네트워크와 AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)를 활용한 쉴드 TBM 터널 리스크 분석)

  • Park, Jeongjun;Chung, Heeyoung;Moon, Joon-Bai;Choi, Hangseok;Lee, In-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.453-467
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    • 2016
  • Overall risks that can occur in a shield TBM tunnelling are studied in this paper. Both the potential risk events that may occur during tunnel construction and their causes are identified, and the causal relationship between causes and events is obtained in a systematic way. Risk impact analysis is performed for the potential risk events and ways to mitigate the risks are summarized. Literature surveys as well as interviews with experts were made for this purpose. The potential risk events are classified into eight categories: cuttability reduction, collapse of a tunnel face, ground surface settlement and upheaval, spurts of slurry on the ground, incapability of mucking and excavation, and water leakage. The causes of these risks are categorized into three areas: geological, design and construction management factors. Bayesian Networks (BN) were established to systematically assess a causal relationship between causes and events. The risk impact analysis was performed to evaluate a risk response level by adopting an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the consideration of the downtime and cost of measures. Based on the result of the risk impact analysis, the risk events are divided into four risk response levels and these levels are verified by comparing with the actual occurrences of risk events. Measures to mitigate the potential risk events during the design and/or construction stages are also proposed. Result of this research will be of the help to the designers and contractors of TBM tunnelling projects in identifying the potential risks and for preparing a systematic risk management through the evaluation of the risk response level and the migration methods in the design and construction stage.

Foreign Exchange Return Predictability: Rational Expectations Risk Premium vs. Expectational Errors

  • Moon, Seongman
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.467-505
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    • 2018
  • We propose a simple identification scheme for the causes of the violations of uncovered interest parity. Our method uses the serial dependence patterns of excess returns as a criterion for judging performance of economic models. We show that a mean reverting component in excess returns, representing a violation of uncovered interest parity, mainly contributes to generating different serial dependence patterns of excess returns: rational expectations risk premium models tend to generate negative serial dependence of excess returns, while expectational errors models tend to generate positive serial dependence.

Critical Hazard Factors in the Risk Assessments of Industrial Robots: Causal Analysis and Case Studies

  • Lee, Kangdon;Shin, Jaeho;Lim, Jae-Yong
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.496-504
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    • 2021
  • Background: With the increasing demand for industrial robots and the "noncontact" trend, it is an appropriate point in time to examine whether risk assessments conducted for robot operations are performed effectively to identify and eliminate the risks of injury or harm to operators. This study discusses why robot accidents resulting in harm to operators occur repetitively despite implementing control measures and proposes corrective actions for risk assessments. Methods: This study collected 369 operator-injured robot accidents in Korea over the last decade and reconstructed them into the mechanism of injury, work being undertaken, and bodily location of the injury. Then, through the techniques of Systematic Cause Analysis Technique (SCAT) and Root Cause Analysis (RCA), this study analyzed the root and direct causes of robot accidents that had occurred. Causes identified included physical hazards and complex combinations of hazards, such as psychological, organizational, and systematic errors. The requirements of risk assessments regarding robot operations were examined, and three case studies of robot-involved tasks were investigated. The three assessments presented were: camera module processing, electrical discharge machining, and a panel-flipping robot installation. Results: After conducting RCA and comparing the three assessments, it was found that two-thirds of injury-occurring from robot accidents, causative factors included psychological and personal traits of robot operators. However, there were no evaluations of the identifications of personal aspects in the three assessment cases. Conclusion: Therefore, it was concluded that personal factors of operators, which had been overlooked in risk assessments so far, need to be included in future risk assessments on robot operations.

An Approach to Risk Assessment of City Gas Pipeline (도시가스 배관의 위험평가 방법론 제시)

  • Park Kyo-Shik;Lee Jin-Han;Jo Young-Do;Park Jin-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.7 no.1 s.18
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2003
  • In this work, a novel approach was introduced to assess cost of loss resulting from risk as well as to help deciding inspection period through quantifying risk. In order to quantifying risk of city gas pipeline, frequency and consequence analysis were required. The main causes of city gas accident were analyzed to be digging, external corrosion, ground movement, and equipment failure. Tools to evaluate frequency of each cause was also suggested. Among city gas accidents, fire damage is the dominant one and mainly discussed; fatality, burning injury, and damage to building were estimated using the consequence model suggested. By combining frequency and consequence analysis, evaluating cost of risk management together with calculating example. This work could be applicable for city gas companies to plan how to manage risk most effectively.

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A STUDY ON RISK WEIGHT USING FUZZY IN REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

  • Sung Cho;Kyung-ha Lee ;Yong Cho ;Joon-Hong Paek
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1176-1182
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    • 2009
  • Due to recession in real estate market, interest of risk analysis is increasing. Feasibility study in the first stage takes a great role in a project. There are not objectified tools which are able to cope with uncertainty of project, and feasibility study based on selected method of determinism does not include liquidity of weight risk. Also, shortage of consideration for subjective and atypical external factors causes inappropriate results. Therefore, this study proposes feasibility study model focused on risk factor influences in construction cost and sales cost. Considering effective level of cost based on objective risk factors and probable weight of risk by this model, real workers are able to bring correct and scientific decisions better than former method based on selective analysis of real estate development.

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A Probabilistic Approach to Forecasting and Evaluating the Risk of Fishing Vessel Accidents in Korea

  • Kim, Dong-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.302-310
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    • 2018
  • Despite the accident rate for fishing vessels accounts for 70% of all maritime accidents, few studies on such accidents have been done and most of the them mainly focus on causes and mitigation policies to reduce that accident rate. Thus, this risk analysis on sea accidents is the first to be performed for the successful and efficient implementation of accident reducing measures. In risk analysis, risk is calculated based on the combination of frequency and the consequence of an accident, and is usually expressed as a single number. However, there exists uncertainty in the risk calculation process if one uses a limited number of data for analysis. Therefore, in the study we propose a probabilistic simulation method to forecast risk not as a single number, but in a range of possible risk values. For the capability of the proposed method, using the criteria with the ALARP region, we show the possible risk values spanning across the different risk regions, whereas the single risk value calculated from the existing method lies in one of the risk regions. Therefore, a decision maker could employ appropriate risk mitigation options to handle the risks lying in different regions. For this study, we used fishing vessel accident data from 1988 to 2016.

Risk Analysis and Selection of the Main Factors in Fishing Vessel Accidents Through a Risk Matrix (위험도 매트릭스를 이용한 어선의 사고 위험도 분석과 사고 주요 요인 도출에 관한 연구)

  • WON, Yoo-Kyung;KIM, Dong-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.139-150
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    • 2019
  • Though, fishing vessel accidents account for 70 % of all maritime accidents in Korean waters, most research has focused on identifying causes and developing mitigation policies in an attempt to reduce this rate. However, predicting and evaluating accident risk needs to be done before the implementation of such reduction measures. For this reasons, we havve performed a risk analysis to calculate the risk of accidents and propose a risk criteria matrix with 4 quadrants, within one of which forecasted risk is plotted for the relative comparison of risks. For this research, we considered 9 types of fishing vessel accidents as reported by Korea Maritime Safety Tribunal (KMST). Given that no risk evaluation criteria have been established in Korea, we established a two-dimensional frequency-consequence grid consisting of four quadrants into which paired frequency and consequence for each type of accident are presented. With the simple structure of the evaluation model, one can easily verify the effect of frequency and consequence on the resulting risk within each quadrant. Consequently, these risk evaluation results will help a decision maker employ more realistic risk mitigation measures for accident types situated in different quadrants. As an application of the risk evaluation matrix, accident types were further analyzed using accident causes including human error (factor) and appropriate risk reduction options may be established by comparing the relative frequency and consequence of each accident cause.

Risk Analysis of Container Ship Accidents and Risk Mitigation Measures

  • Kim, Dong-Jin;Kwak, Su-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.259-267
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    • 2016
  • The study performs a risk analysis on container ship accidents using accident data collected over the six years from 2006 to 2011, presents the resulting risk level, and suggests three risk mitigation measures to reduce the overall risk, for the safer operation of container ships. More specifically, starting from the initial accident of collision, we developed 13 different accident scenarios using event tree analysis based on which the overall risk level was obtained and presented as a FN curve. Since diverse human factors are the main cause of most of the ship accidents, our study focuses on the effect of reducing human causes on the resulting risk level. For the research we considered the injuries for the calculation of fatality with the help of MAIS. The results show that collision was the main type of accident, accounting for 62 % of all accidents, and the measures employed were proven to be effective in the sense that the risk level was much lowered and the average number of fatalities was also reduced. With more data accumulated, more precise risk level will be calculated with which the practical risk mitigating measures will be also developed. For future study, economic loss and environmental damage as consequences need to be considered.

Socio-Demographic and Behavioural Risk Factors for Cervical Cancer and Knowledge, Attitude and Practice in Rural and Urban Areas of North Bengal, India

  • Raychaudhuri, Sreejata;Mandal, Sukanta
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.1093-1096
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    • 2012
  • Background: Cervical cancer is common among women worldwide. A multitude of risk factors aggravate the disease. This study was conducted to: (1) determine the prevalence and (2) make a comparative analysis of the socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors of cervical cancer and knowledge, attitude and practice between rural and urban women of North Bengal, India. Study Design: Community-based cross-sectional study. Methods: A survey (first in North Bengal) was conducted among 133 women in a rural area (Kawakhali) and 88 women in an urban slum (Shaktigarh) using predesigned semi-structured questionnaires. The respondents were informed of the causes (including HPV), signs and symptoms, prevention of cervical cancer and treatment, and the procedure of the PAP test and HPV vaccination. Results: The prevalence of risk factors like multiparity, early age of marriage, use of cloth during menstruation, use of condom and OCP, early age of first intercourse was 37.2%, 82%, 83.3%, 5.4%, 15.8% and 65.6% respectively. Awareness about the cause, signs and symptoms, prevention of cervical cancer, PAP test and HPV vaccination was 3.6%, 6.3%, 3.6%, 9.5% and 14.5% respectively. Chi-square testing revealed that in the study population, significant differential at 5% exists between rural and urban residents with respect to number of children, use of cloth/sanitary napkins, family history of cancer and awareness regarding causes of cervical cancer. Regarding KAP, again using chi-square tests, surprisingly, level of education is found to be significant for each element of KAP in urban areas in contrast to complete absence of association between education and elements of KAP in rural areas. Conclusions: A large number of risk factors were present in both areas, the prevalence being higher in the rural areas. The level of awareness and role of education appears to be insignificant determinants in rural compared to urban areas. This pilot study needs to be followed up by large scale programmes to re-orient awareness campaigns, especially in rural areas.