• Title/Summary/Keyword: causes of risk

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Applying Ensemble Model for Identifying Uncertainty in the Species Distribution Models (종분포모형의 불확실성 확인을 위한 앙상블모형 적용)

  • Kwon, Hyuk Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.47-52
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    • 2014
  • Species distribution models have been widely applied in order to assess biodiversity, design reserve, manage habitat and predict climate change. However, SDMs has been used restrictively to the public and policy sectors owing to model uncertainty. Recent studies on ensemble and consensus models have been increased to reduce model uncertainty. This paper was carried out single model and multi model for Corylopsis coreana and compares two models. First, model evaluation was used AUC, kappa and TSS. TSS was the most effective method because it was easy to compare several models and convert binary maps. Second, both single and ensemble model show good performance and RF, Maxent and GBM was evaluated higher, GAM and SRE was evaluated lower relatively. Third, ensemble model tended to overestimate over single model. This problem can be solved by the suitable model selection and weighting through collaboration between field experts and modeler. Finally, we should identify causes and magnitude of model uncertainty and improve data quality and model methods in order to apply special decision-making support system and conservation planning, and when we make policy decisions using SDMs, we should recognize uncertainty and risk.

The Study on Risk Factors Analysis and Improvement of VDT Syndrome in Nuclear Medicine (핵의학과 Video Display Terminals Syndrome 유해 요인 조사 및 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Soo;Kim, Seung-Jeong;Lee, Hong-Jae;Kim, Jin-Eui;Kim, Hyun-Joo;Han, In-Im;Joo, Yung-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Recently, Department of Nuclear Medicine have an interest in Video Display Terminals (VDT) syndrome including musculoskeletal disorders, ophthalmologic disorders, trouble of electromagnetic waves and stress disorders occur to VDT workers as the growing number of users and rapid pace of service period supply in large amount. This study research on the actual condition for VDT syndrome in Nuclear Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH), discover the problem and draw a plan of upcoming improvement. The aim of this study establish awareness about VDT syndrome and is to prevent for it in the long run. Materials and Methods: Department of Nuclear Medicine, SNUH is composed Principle part, Pediatric part and PET center. We estimated risk factors visit in each part directly. Estimation method use "Check list for VDT work" of Wonjin working environment health laboratory and check list is condition of VDT work, condition of work tables, condition of chairs, condition of keyboards, condition of monitors, working position, character of health management and other working environment. Analysis result is verified in Department of Occupational and Environment, Hallym University Sacred Heard Hospital. Results: As a result of analysis, VDT condition of Department of Nuclear Medicine, SNUH is rule good. In case of work tables, recent of things are suitable to users upon the ergonomical planning, but 15% of existing work tables are below the standard value. In case of chairs are suitable, but 5% of theirs lost optimum capacity become superannuated. The keyboards are suitable for 98% of standard value. In case of monitors, angle control of screen is possible of all, but positioning control is impossible for 38%. In case of working position, 10% is fixed positioning for long time and some of the items researched unsuitable things for standard. At health management point, needed capable of improvement. Also, other working condition as lighting, temperature, noise and ventilation, discovered the problem, but is sufficient to advice value. Conclusion: VDT syndrome is occurrences of possibility continuously, come economical expensive about improvement, is inherent in various causes and originate without your knowledge. So, there is need systematic management system. In Nuclear Medicine, VDT syndrome make it better that constant interest and effort as improvement of ergonomical working environment, improvement of working procedure, regular exercise and steady stretching, and can be prevented fairly. This promote physical and mental condition of worker in top form in comfortable working environment, so this is judged by enlargement of operations efficiency and rising of satisfaction ratings of the inside client.

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The Effects of Catheter Revision and Mupirocin on Exit Site Infection/Peritonitis in CAPD Patients (복막 투석 환자에서 도관 관련 감염 및 복막염에 대한 Mupirocin과 도관 전환술(Catheter revision)의 효과)

  • Park, Jun-Beom;Kim, Jung-Mee;Choi, Jun-Hyuk;Jo, Kyu-Hyang;Jung, Hang-Jae;Kim, Yeung-Jin;Do, Jun-Yeung;Yoon, Kyung-Woo
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.347-356
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    • 1999
  • Background: Exit site/tunnel infection causes considerable morbidity and technique failure in CAPD patients. We presently use a unique revision method for the treatment of refractory ESI/TI in CAPD patients and mupirocin prophylaxis for high risk patients. Materials and Methods: We reviewed 139 CAPD patients about the ESI/TI from October 1993 to February 1999 at Yeungnam University Hospital. At the beginning of the ESI. we usually started medications with rifampicin and ciprofloxacin and then changed the antibiotics according to the sensitivity test. If the ESI had persisted and there were TI symptoms (purulent discharge, abscess lesion around exit site). we performed catheter revision(external cuff shaving, disinfection around tunnel and new exit site on opposit direction) with a combination of proper antibiotics. We applied local mupirocin ointment at the exit site three times per week to the 34 patients who had the risk of ESI starting from October 1998. Results: The total follow-up was 2401 patient months(pt. mon). ESI occurred on 105 occasions in 36 out of 139 patients, and peritonitis occurred on 112 occasions in 67 out of 139 patients. The total number of incidences of ESI and peritonitis was 1 per 23.0 pt. mon and 1 per 2l.6 pt.mon. The most common organism responsible for ESI was Staphylococcus aureus (26 of 54 isolated cases, 48%), followed by the Methicillin resistant S. aureus(MRSA) (13 cases, 24%). Seven patients(5: MRSA. 2: Pseudomonas) had to be treated with a revision to control infection. Three patients experienced ESI relapse after revision. One of them improved with antibiotics, while another needed a second revision and the remaining required catheter removal due to persistent MRSA infection with re-insertion at the same time. But, there was no more ESI in these 3 patients who were received management to relapse (The mean duration: 14.0 months). The rates of ESI were significantly reduced after using mupirocin than before(1 per 12.7 vs 34.0 pt.mon, P<0.01). Conclusions: In summary, revision technique can be regarded as an effective method for refractory ESI/TI before catheter removal. Also local mupirocin ointment can play a significant role in the prevention of ESI.

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A Study on the Current Fire Insurance Subscription and Solutions for Ensuring the Safety of the Traditional Market (전통시장 안전성 확보를 위한 개선방안: 화재보험 가입실태를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yoo-Oh;Byun, Chung-Gyu;Ryu, Tae-Chang
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2011
  • Concerning the risk factors of the outbreak of a fire in a traditional market, most of those markets are located in downtown areas or residential areas; thus, although their location may be favorable in terms of marketability, they face a potential risk in that a fire may develop into a large blaze owing to poor environment or the absence of facilities prepared for disaster during a fire. Moreover, as many people are densely poised in the markets, it is very probable that a fire may occur owing to the excessive use of heaters in the winter as well as the reckless use of electric and gas facilities. It seems that traditional markets encounter difficulty being insured against fire, because of their vulnerability and that the vast majority of small-scale sellers are likely to suffer mental anguish and tremendous physical injury in case of a fire. However, most of those sellers in the traditional markets are hand-to-mouth sellers, and they lack awareness of safety concerns and have insufficient experience in safe facility management. As small-scale sellers constitute the majority in the traditional market, the subscription rate of fire insurance in most of the traditional markets is low for the reasons of their needy circumstances and their financial burden. Statistically, the subscription by street vendors is non-existent; therefore, these vendors have a fairly limited access to indemnification after fire damage. Because of these problems, this study's purpose is to identify the current level of insurance subscription by these markets, which are exposed to poor facilities and vulnerability to fire. In order to fix this, it appears that shop owners and consumers will have to band together. For this study, we executed a fire policyholder fact-finding mission at traditional markets with approximately 108 and 981 stores. The research method was executed by an investigation using one-on-one individual interviews using a questionnaire. The contents investigated current insurance subscriptions. The method of analysis looked at the difference of insured amount according to volume size through cross-tabulation of the difference of insured amount by possession form, difference of insured amount by market form, difference of insured amount by category of business, difference of insured amount by market size, etc. Furthermore, the study should be used to propose solutions for problems through theoretical review with the use of a literature research, because the field case study was through interviews with the persons concerned, and the survey of the current insurance subscriptions by traditional market shopkeepers. The traditional market would generally have difficulty affording fire insurance. Fire insurance subscription rates of most of the market proved to be inactive, because of the economic burden of payment. Lack of funds is thought to be the main factor that causes a lack of realization about the necessity of fire insurance. In addition to expensive insurance premiums, sometimes, the companies' valuation of the businesses is lower than their actual valuations, and they do not pay out enough during a claim. The research presents an improvement plan that, when presented at the traditional markets, may strengthen their ability to procure fire insurance through the help of the central government. Researchers connected with the traditional market mainly accomplish the initial research. However, although this research has its limitations, it offers considerable benefits. For future researchers, I would suggest looking at several regions for comparison.

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Study on the State Leadership's Safety Measures Regarding the North Korean Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction - Focuses on the Threat of North Korean Nuclear Weapons (북한 대량살상무기 위협에 대한 국가지도부 안전대책에 관한 연구 - 북한 핵무기 위협을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Kee-Nam
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.37
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    • pp.325-354
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    • 2013
  • The concept of national security and the fundamental system for crisis management have departed from traditional methods and the importance of a national critical infrastructure crisis management has been emphasized. A national critical infrastructure crisis means a situation where human resource, material and functional system that may have a material effect on the critical functions of the government, the vitality and integrity of society, national economy and the safety of the public becomes disabled due to causes such as terrorism or major disasters. Although North Korea had been subject to numerous rounds of negotiations and sanctions as it continually developed nuclear weapons since the 1960s, it has also showed off its nuclear armaments through successful nuclear testings and missile launches. As the development and threat of North Korea's weapons of mass destruction becomes more noticeable and the range of its risk expands, this study focuses on the potential for an absence of leadership for national crisis management where the country's leadership, which should serve the critical role and function of handling national crises, becomes completely destroyed by the unexpected initial attacks by North Korea. As a result, the purpose of this study is to propose safety measures for the country's leadership in preparation for North Korea's threat of nuclear weapons by examining the concept and degree of risk of weapons of mass destruction with a focus on nuclear weapons, analyzing the substance of the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons and evaluating such threat. In conclusion, first, to ensure the normal functioning of a national crisis management system in the event of a national crisis, we must seek safety measures that conform to the scope and succession order of the leadership of the national crisis management for an Enduring Constitutional Government (ECG) and the Continuity Of Operations (COOP). Second, in the event of a national ceremony, the gathering of the country's leadership all together in an open place should be avoided. In unavoidable circumstances, the next in rank that will act on behalf of the current leader should be designated and relevant safety measures should be taken. Third, during time of peace, in preparation for national crises, the scope of protection for the country's leadership should be prescribed and specific security and safety measures should be implemented. Fourth, the succession order for acting president in the case of the death of the president pursuant to Articles 71 and 26(1) of the National Government Organization Act should reconsidered to see whether it is a reasonable provision that takes into consideration a national crisis management that corresponds to the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction. Pursuant to the Basic Guidelines for National Crisis Management set out under Presidential Directive No. 229, the Korean government is currently operating a case-by-case "crisis management standard manual" and its sub-manuals and has also prepared the Presidential Security Service's security and safety measure regulations regarding the acting president. Therefore, the Korean government should actualize the above points in the case-by-case crisis management standard manual and security and safety measure regulations regarding the acting president to implement and legislate them.

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Evaluation of Indoor Air Quality in a Department of Radiation Oncology Located Underground (지하에 위치한 방사선종양학과에서의 실내공기 질 평가)

  • Kim, Won-Taek;Shin, Yong-Chul;Kang, Dong-Mug;Ki, Yong-Kan;Kim, Dong-Won;Kwon, Byung-Hyun
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.243-252
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: Indoor air quality (IAQ) in the radiation treatment center which is generally located underground is important to the health of hospital workers and patients treated over a long period of time. this study was conducted to measure and analyze the factors related to IAQ and subjective symptoms of sick building syndrome, and to establish the causes influencing IAQ and find a solution to the problems. Methods and Materials : Self administrated questionnaire was conducted to check the workers' symptoms and understanding of the work environment. Based on a preliminary investigation, the factors related to IAQ such as temperature, humidity, fine particulate. carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, formaldehyde, total volatile organic compounds (TVOC), and radon gas were selected and measured for a certain period of time in specific sites where hospital workers stay long in a day. And we also evaluated the surrounding environment and the efficiency of the ventilating system simultaneously, and measured the same factors at the first floor (outdoor) to compare with outdoor all quality, All collected data were assessed by the recommended standard for IAQ of the domestic and international environmental organizations. Results: Hospital workers were discontented with foul odors, humidity and particulate. They complained symptoms related to musculo-skeletal system, neurologic system, and mucosal-irritatation. Most of the factors were not greater than the recommended standard, but the level of TVOC was third or fourth times as much as the measuring level of some offices in the United States. The frequency and the amount of the ventilating system were adequate, however, the problem arising in the position of outdoor-air inlets and indoor-air outlets involved a risk of the indraft of contaminated air. A careful attention was a requirement in handling and keeping chemical substances including a developing solution which has a risk of TVOC emissions, and repositioning the ventilating system was needed to solve the contaminated-air circulation immediately Conclusion We verified that some IAQ-related factors and inadequate ventilating system could cause subjective symptoms in hospital workers. The evaluation of IAQ was surely needed to improve the underground working environments for hospital workers and patients. On the basis of these data, from now on, we should actively engage in designs of the department of radiation oncology or improvement in environments of the existing facilities.

The Effects of Chest Injury in the Early Deaths of Trauma Patients (외상에 의한 초기 사망에서 흉부손상에 대한 고찰)

  • Lee Dong Hoon;Cho Dai Yun;Kim Chan Woong;Sohn Dong Suep
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.39 no.2 s.259
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    • pp.127-133
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    • 2006
  • Background: In the studies of the distribution of time to death in trauma patients, the early deaths within several hours after injury were a large component of total trauma deaths. Due to the development of trauma system, overall mortality of trauma was decreased, but trauma is still the major cause of deaths. Material and Method: From January 1994 to December 2003, trauma patients who had been admitted and had expired at tertiary hospital were enrolled. There was a total of 400 cases, a retrospective study was done to determine the distribution of trauma mortality according to the part of the body that were severely injured part and compared the difference between early deaths within 6 hours and late deaths after 6 hours. We also analysed the risk factors of early deaths due to trauma. Result: In severe injury to the head and abdomen, the distribution of mortality was bimodal. But, in severe chest injuries, the distribution was log-shape and most early deaths were almost of trauma related. The average of GCS were 5.86$\pm$4.15 for the early deaths and 8.24$\pm$5.02 for the late deaths (p < 0.05). The AIS of thorax were 2.66$\pm$1.87 for the early deaths and 1.55$\pm$1.76 for late deaths. The risk factors for early mortality were non-EMS transportation (odds ratio 3.474), high AIS (odds ratio 1.491) and GCS (odds ratio 0.859). Conclusion: In trauma patients, the causes of early mortality were severe brain injury and massive hemorrhage. Also severe chest injuries were the major cause of the early deaths in truama. Early diagnosis of chest injury can frequently be missed in the acute trauma setting. Therefore, high index of suspicion, a careful examination, and aggressive surgical treatment are important in multiple trauma patients.

Lecompte Procedure in Complex Congenital Heart Diseases (선천성 복잡 심기형에서의 Lecompte 술식의 유용성 및 임상적용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yong-Jin;Kim, Kyung-Hwan;Lee, Suk-Jae;Song, Hyun;Oh, Sam-Se;Lee, Jeong-Ryul;Rho, Joon-Ryang;Suh, Kyung-Phill
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.31 no.7
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    • pp.660-667
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    • 1998
  • Background: This study is to evaluate the effectiveness and application of Lecompte procedure as a treatment for various complex cardiac anomalies with pulmonary outflow tract obstruction. Methods: Between July 1988 and December 1997, 44 patients underwent Lecompte procedure in Seoul National University Children's Hospital. The male to female ratio was 24 to 20 and the mean age was 29.2 months(range, 3 to 83). Of these patients, 28(63.6%) had transposition of great arteries with ventricular septal defect and pulmonary stenosis(or pulmonary atresia), 14(31.8%) had double outlet right ventricle with pulmonary stenosis(or pulmonary atresia), and so on. The principles of the technique are 1) extension of the ventricular septal defect or conal resection, 2) construction of a intracardiac tunnel connecting the left ventricle to the aorta, and 3) direct connection, without a prosthetic conduit, of the pulmonary trunk to the right ventricle. Results: There were 3 in-hospital deaths and their causes were sustained hypoxia, myocardial failure, and sepsis, respectively. There was 1 late death due to sepsis. Reoperations were performed in 6 patients who had pulmonary outflow tract obstructions(4 cases), residual muscular ventricular septal defect(1 case), and recurrent septic vegetation(1 case). The cumulative survival rates by the Kaplan-Meier method were 92.7%, 92.7%, and 92.7% at 1, 2, and over 4 years. The reoperation free survival rates were 92.7%, 92.7%, and 70.2% at 1, 3, and over 5 years. Among the risk factors for the operative death, aortic cross clamping time had statistical significance(p<0.05) and all the risk factors for the recurrent pulmonary stenosis such as age, pulmonary artery index, and materials used for the pulmonary outflow tract reconstruction had no statistical significance(p>0.05). Conclusions: Our review suggests that Lecompte procedure is an effective treatment modality for various complex cardiac anomalies with pulmonary outflow tract obstruction. Repair in early age is possible and the rates of mortality and morbidity are also acceptable.

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A Study of Epstein-Barr Virus, and Human Leukocyte Antigen Typing in Children with Acute Infectious Mononucleosis (급성 전염성 단핵구증 환아에서 Epstein-Barr 바이러스의 감염형과 사람 백혈구 항원형 연구)

  • Hahn, Seung-Hoon;Shin, Wan-Shik;Han, Hoon;Kang, Jin-Han
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.467-473
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : The Epstein-Barr virus(EBV), gamma herpesvirus, is an important pathogen that is widespread around the world. The EBV causes various diseases depending on the geographic location, and on the immunity or the premorbid condition of the person exposed to EBV. To evaluate EBV typing may be the most important step to figure out the pathogenesis of EBV associated diseases, and we need to re-evaluate the pathologic role of human leukocyte antigen(HLA) in developing Epstein- Barr virus associated acute infectious mononucleosis by using newly developed methods. Methods : This study included 24 children(age range : 6 to 13 years), serologically confirmed with acute infectious mononucleosis. The control group for the HLA type consisted of 200 age-matched healthy children. To classify HLA I, modified ARMs-PCR was used, while modified PCR-SSOP was utilized in typing of HLA II. Also, we performed EBV typing in study patients by using a one-step PCR. Results : The results of HLA types : In HLA class I, HLA-A24 was positive in 69 of 200 healthy children and positive in 14 of 24 patients in the study group(relative risk : 3.5724, chi-square; 5.26, P<0.05). In HLA class II, HLA-DRB1*07 was detected in 18 of 200 healthy children, and eight of 24 patients in the study group(relative risk; 506173, chi-square; 9.73, P<0.01). The results of EBV types : In the research group, 20(83.8%) of 24 patients were shedding type A virus, while 4(16.7%) were type B. Conclusion : We conclude that development of infectious mononucleosis may be associated with HLA types, and these results suggest that acute infectious mononucleosis could have hereditary traits. And we confirm that type A EBV is highly prevalent in patients with acute infectious mononucleosis in Korea. Also, our results suggest that further large scale studies, including adult groups, regarding the association between pathogenesis of EBV with HLA-DP or HLA-DQ will be warranted.

Comparison of health indicators and lifestyle according to atherogenic index of plasma in Korean adults in their 20s and 30s (한국 20-30대 성인의 Atherogenic Index of Plasma에 따른 건강지표 및 생활습관비교)

  • Bora Hwang;Yoon Jung Yang
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.168-183
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: Cardiovascular disease is one of the major causes of death not only in Korea but also worldwide. Atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) has been extensively investigated, but studies on nutritional intake and eating habits are scarce. The purpose of this study was to analyze the general characteristics, dietary habits, and nutritional status of Korean adults based on their AIP values using data from the 2013-2015 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Methods: A total number of 3,040 adults in their 20s and 30s were included as study subjects. They were divided into quintiles according to their AIP values. Comparisons were then made among the general information, eating habits, and nutritional intake statuses of the groups. Results: The averages of AIP were different by age, obese status, education, occupation, alcohol drinking frequency, smoking, and exercise in men. As for women, the averages of AIP were different by age, obese status, education, occupation, alcohol drinking frequency, and smoking status. Except for high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, higher AIP values in men were associated with significant increasing trends in health indicators, including systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, insulin, hemoglobin A1c, total cholesterol, triglyceride, and low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol. As for women, as AIP increased, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, insulin, total cholesterol, triglyceride, and LDL-cholesterol showed significant increasing trends except HDL-cholesterol. HDL-cholesterol showed a significant decreasing trend as AIP increased in men and women. In the high AIP group of women, the frequency of breakfast was lower, whereas the frequency of alcohol beverage consumption was higher. Conclusion: Among young adults, the risk of arteriosclerosis was higher in obese, smoking, and non-exercise individuals. More frequent alcohol drink consumption in women is associated with a higher risk of arteriosclerosis. Therefore, weight and lifestyle management are necessary for the prevention of atherosclerosis among young adults.