• 응용통계연구
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.205-220
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• 2016

경제통계에서 기조적 변동인 추세변동과 순환변동을 살펴보려면 경제통계에서 달력변동을 포함한 계절변동을 적절히 제거하는 계절조정이 필요하다. 계절조정방법으로는 전년동기대비 증감률과 같이 간편한 방식이 있지만 통계작성기관에서는 이동평균 또는 시계열모형을 기반으로 한 X-12-ARIMA 또는 TRAMO-SEATS를 이용하여 계절조정계열을 작성한다. 통계청과 한국은행은 X-12-ARIMA 또는 X-13ARIMA-SEATS에 우리나라 고유의 명절, 공휴일 등을 추가로 보정한 계절조정방법을 만들고 이를 이용하여 우리나라 주요 경제통계의 계절조정계열을 작성, 공표하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 그 동안의 연구를 바탕으로 계절조정의 기본 원리와 우리나라의 계절조정 현황을 정리하고, 월별 산업생산지수(제조업)와 취업자의 계절조정을 통해 계절조정의 주요 쟁점을 정리하였다.

• 천문학회지
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• 제48권6호
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• pp.325-331
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• 2015

We study an association between the duration of solar activity and characteristics of the latitude distribution of sunspots by means of center-of-latitude (COL) of sunspots observed during the period from 1878 to 2008 spanning solar cycles 12 to 23. We first calculate COL by taking the area-weighted mean latitude of sunspots for each calendar month to determine the latitudinal distribution of COL of sunspots appearing in the long and short cycles separately. The data set for the long solar cycles consists of the solar cycles 12, 13, 14, 20, and 23. The short solar cycles include the solar cycles 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, and 22. We then fit a double Gaussian function to compare properties of the latitudinal distribution resulting from the two data sets. Our main findings are as follows: (1) The main component of the double Gaussian function does not show any significant change in the central position and in the full-width-at-half-maximum (FWHM), except in the amplitude. They are all centered at ~ 11° with FWHM of ~ 5°. (2) The secondary component of the double Gaussian function at higher latitudes seems to differ in that even though their width remains fixed at ~ 4°, their central position peaks at ~ 22.1° for the short cycles and at ~ 20.7° for the long cycles with quite small errors. (3) No significant correlation could be established between the duration of an individual cycle and the parameters of the double Gaussian. Finally, we conclude by briefly discussing the implications of these findings on the issue of the cycle 4 concerning a lost cycle.

• 한국재료학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국재료학회 2011년도 춘계학술발표대회
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• pp.5-5
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• 2011

The research and development of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and electric vehicle (EV) are intensified due to the energy crisis and environmental concerns. In order to meet the challenging requirements of powering HEV, PHEV and EV, the current lithium battery technology needs to be significantly improved in terms of the cost, safety, power and energy density, as well as the calendar and cycle life. One new technology being developed is the utilization of composite cathode by mixing two different types of insertion compounds [e.g., spinel $LiMn_2O_4$ and layered $LiMO_2$ (M=Ni, Co, and Mn)]. Recently, some studies on mixing two different types of cathode materials to make a composite cathode have been reported, which were aimed at reducing cost and improving self-discharge. Numata et al. reported that when stored in a sealed can together with electrolyte at $80^{\circ}C$ for 10 days, the concentrations of both HF and $Mn^{2+}$ were lower in the can containing $LiMn_2O_4$ blended with $LiNi_{0.8}Co_{0.2}O_2$ than that containing $LiMn_2O_4$ only. That reports clearly showed that this blending technique can prevent the decline in capacity caused by cycling or storage at elevated temperatures. However, not much work has been reported on the charge-discharge characteristics and related structural phase transitions for these composite cathodes. In this presentation, we will report our in situ x-ray diffraction studies on this mixed composite cathode material during charge-discharge cycling. The mixed cathodes were incorporated into in situ XRD cells with a Li foil anode, a Celgard separator, and a 1M $LiPF_6$ electrolyte in a 1 : 1 EC : DMC solvent (LP 30 from EM Industries, Inc.). For in situ XRD cell, Mylar windows were used as has been described in detail elsewhere. All of these in situ XRD spectra were collected on beam line X18A at National Synchrotron Light Source (NSLS) at Brookhaven National Laboratory using two different detectors. One is a conventional scintillation detector with data collection at 0.02 degree in two theta angle for each step. The other is a wide angle position sensitive detector (PSD). The wavelengths used were 1.1950 ${\AA}$ for the scintillation detector and 0.9999 A for the PSD. The newly installed PSD at beam line X18A of NSLS can collect XRD patterns as short as a few minutes covering $90^{\circ}$ of two theta angles simultaneously with good signal to noise ratio. It significantly reduced the data collection time for each scan, giving us a great advantage in studying the phase transition in real time. The two theta angles of all the XRD spectra presented in this paper have been recalculated and converted to corresponding angles for ${\lambda}=1.54\;{\AA}$, which is the wavelength of conventional x-ray tube source with Cu-$k{\alpha}$ radiation, for easy comparison with data in other literatures. The structural changes of the composite cathode made by mixing spinel $LiMn_2O_4$ and layered $Li-Ni_{1/3}Co_{1/3}Mn_{1/3}O_2$ in 1 : 1 wt% in both Li-half and Li-ion cells during charge/discharge are studied by in situ XRD. During the first charge up to ~5.2 V vs. $Li/Li^+$, the in situ XRD spectra for the composite cathode in the Li-half cell track the structural changes of each component. At the early stage of charge, the lithium extraction takes place in the $LiNi_{1/3}Co_{1/3}Mn_{1/3}O_2$ component only. When the cell voltage reaches at ~4.0 V vs. $Li/Li^+$, lithium extraction from the spinel $LiMn_2O_4$ component starts and becomes the major contributor for the cell capacity due to the higher rate capability of $LiMn_2O_4$. When the voltage passed 4.3 V, the major structural changes are from the $LiNi_{1/3}Co_{1/3}Mn_{1/3}O_2$ component, while the $LiMn_2O_4$ component is almost unchanged. In the Li-ion cell using a MCMB anode and a composite cathode cycled between 2.5 V and 4.2 V, the structural changes are dominated by the spinel $LiMn_2O_4$ component, with much less changes in the layered $LiNi_{1/3}Co_{1/3}Mn_{1/3}O_2$ component, comparing with the Li-half cell results. These results give us valuable information about the structural changes relating to the contributions of each individual component to the cell capacity at certain charge/discharge state, which are helpful in designing and optimizing the composite cathode using spinel- and layered-type materials for Li-ion battery research. More detailed discussion will be presented at the meeting.