• Fashion, Industry and Education
• /
• 제14권2호
• /
• pp.47-59
• /
• 2016

This research is concerned with comparing fluctuation in the Korean and the US economies in order to ascertain the degree to which the former is influenced by changes in the latter. The aim of this research is to explore business cycles, to examine consumer expenditure in Korea and the US, and to discover the relationships between business fluctuation indexes and overall expenditure. Statistical data from the national statistics of Korea and the US during period from 1990 to 2015 were used. The instrument included a measure of GDP, unemployment rates, GDP deflator rate (inflation rates), and household income and expenditure. For the average annual household expenditures, food, apparel and transportation expenditure data were compared across the two countries. Data were collected separately from different (though comparable) sources and were analyzed using relatively straight forward statistical techniques. It was found that Korean and the US consumers' income and expenditure were greatly affected by economic fluctuations. Total expenditure and the expenditures for food and transportation were much influenced by business fluctuation in the US, whereas, the expenditures for apparel were much influenced by business fluctuation in Korea.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권12호
• /
• pp.363-370
• /
• 2021

This study aims to revisit the issues and misconceptions about financial inclusion (FI) indices. For indices construction, this study uses two approaches: one approach following the methodology of Sarma (2008) which is based on UNDP methodology, while the other is the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM)-based index of Stock and Watson (2002) and Rehman et al. (2021). The data of 18 economies of Asia from 1997 till 2017 is used for indices construction and analysis. The authors constructed macro and micro-level financial inclusion indices based on the different types of financial inclusion indicators. Second, the authors have critically evaluated two different approaches, and the results show that Sarma (2008)-based index show financial inclusion's level, while DFM-based index reveal fluctuation in the current year's financial inclusion level due to the prior variations. For measuring the level of financial inclusion, the Sarma (2008) index is effective, while for forecasting the level of financial inclusion, the DFM approach is more appropriate. Furthermore, the micro and macro aspects of financial inclusion should be reflected in separate indices for better understanding and in-depth insights.

• 한국의류학회지
• /
• 제47권5호
• /
• pp.779-803
• /
• 2023

The growth of digital news media and the stock price index has resulted in economic fluctuations in the fashion industry. This study examines the impact of fashion industry news and macroeconomic changes on the Textile & Wearing Apparel KOSPI over the past five years. An auto-regressive integrated moving average exogenous time series model was conducted using the fashion industry stock market index, the news topic index, and macro-economic indicators. The results indicated the topics of "Cosmetic business expansion" and "Digital innovation" impacted the Textile & Wearing Apparel KOSPI after one week, and the topics of "Pop-up store," "Entry into the Chinese fashion market," and "Fashion week and trade show" affected it after two weeks. Moreover, the topics of "Cosmetic business expansion" and "Entry into the Chinese fashion market" were statistically significant in the macroeconomic environment. Regarding the effect relation of Textile & Wearing Apparel KOSPI, "Cosmetic business expansion," "Entry into the Chinese fashion market," and consumer price fluctuation showed negative effects, while the private consumption change rate, producer price fluctuation, and unemployment change rate had positive effects. This study analyzes the impact of media framing on fashion industry business cycles and provides practical insights into managing stock market risk for fashion companies.

• 수산경영론집
• /
• 제26권2호
• /
• pp.75-92
• /
• 1995

This paper tried to estimate the pass - through of exchange rate changes to export price of fishery products using export price function. The results are as follows : 1) The variable of fluctuation of exchange rate of Won(equation omitted) to Yen(equation omitted)(variable E2) is more powerful explanatory variable than that of Won to U.S. dollar to explain the fluctiation of export price of fishery products(varible $P_{t}$)- 2) The variable of fish catches(variable K $P_{t}$) is also found to be a statistically significant varible but that of producer price index is not found. 3) The variable E2 have statistically a more influence on variable $P_{t}$ than variable K $P_{t.}$ 4) The estimation shows us that 1% of fluctuation of variable E2 could result in 0.9978% of fluctuation of variable $P_{t.}$

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
• /
• 제14권5호
• /
• pp.103-112
• /
• 2013

1990년대 이후 국가경제에서 미치는 영향이 감소 추세에 들어선 건설업은 호황과 불황을 넘나들고 있다. 건설업의 경기변동이 심할수록 경기예측은 어려워지며, 불확실한 예측의 피해는 기업과 건설 종사자들이 직접적으로 받게 되므로 건설경기를 예측하는 것은 매우 어려우면서 중요한 일이다. 본 연구에서는 건설경기를 나타내는 지표 중 하나인 건설업생산지수를 GDP와 기온효과를 이용하여 실질소득과 야외활동이 많은 건설업의 특성에 따라 기온효과를 반영한 공급측면에서의 단기 건설 경기예측 모형을 제시하였다. 분석결과, 건설경기는 뚜렷한 기온효과가 있으며 GDP에도 큰 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 과정을 통해 입증된 건설경기 예측모델을 기반으로 GDP예상증가율 3.5%와 2.4%일 때, 두 가지 시나리오로 2013년도 건설업생산지수를 예측하였다. 본 연구결과는 건설업의 경기를 판단하는 지표 중 하나로 활용 가능할 것이며, 향후 기후변화가 건설업에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구의 초석이 될 것이다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제9권5호
• /
• pp.285-294
• /
• 2022

Using the ARDL approach, this study examined the impact of macro factors on Vietnam's stock market in the short and long run from 2010 to 2021. The State Bank of Vietnam and the International Monetary Fund provided time series data for this study. Research results show that in the long run, money supply and exchange rate respectively affect the stock market. The money supply had a positive effect on the VN-Index, while the exchange rate showed the opposite effect. However, the study did not find a relationship between world oil price and interest rates on VN-Index in the long run. On the other hand, in the short term, there are relationships between variables; specifically, interest rates and exchange rates have a negative impact on the VN-Index, while the world oil price and the fluctuation of money supply M2 of the previous one and two months showed an impact in the same direction on this index. The differences in the regression results on the impact of exchange rate and oil price on the VN-Index compared to previous studies come from the characteristics of Vietnam's stock market, with the large capitalization of companies in the oil and gas sector, and the structure of Vietnam's economy with export heavily depends on FDI sector.

• 유통과학연구
• /
• 제12권6호
• /
• pp.49-57
• /
• 2014

Purpose - The world now recognizes environmental disruption as a serious issue when regarding growth-oriented strategies; therefore, environmental preservation issues become pertinent. Consequently, green distribution is continuously emphasized. However, studying the prediction and association of distribution and the environment is insufficient. Most existing studies about green distribution are about its necessity, detailed operation methods, and political suggestions; it is necessary to study the distribution service industry and environmental service industry together, for green distribution. Research design, data, and methodology - ARIMA (auto-regressive moving average model) was used to predict the environmental service and distribution service industries, and the Granger Causality Test based on VAR (vector auto regressive) was used to analyze the causal relationship. This study used 48 quarters of time-series data, from the 4th quarter in 2001 to the 3rd quarter in 2013, about each business type's production index, and used an unchangeable index. The production index about the business type is classified into the current index and the unchangeable index. The unchangeable index divides the current index into deflators to remove fluctuation. Therefore, it is easy to analyze the actual production index. This study used the unchangeable index. Results - The production index of the distribution service industry and the production index of the environmental service industry consider the autocorrelation coefficient and partial autocorrelation coefficient; therefore, ARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,1)4 and ARIMA(3,1,0)(0,1,1)4 were established as final prediction models, resulting in the gradual improvement in every production index of both types of business. Regarding the distribution service industry's production index, it is predicted that the 4th quarter in 2014 is 114.35, and the 4th quarter in 2015 is 123.48. Moreover, regarding the environmental service industry's production index, it is predicted that the 4th quarter in 2014 is 110.95, and the 4th quarter in 2015 is 111.67. In a causal relationship analysis, the environmental service industry impacts the distribution service industry, but the distribution service industry does not impact the environmental service industry. Conclusions - This study predicted the distribution service industry and environmental service industry with the ARIMA model, and examined the causal relationship between them through the Granger causality test based on the VAR Model. Prediction reveals the seasonality and gradual increase in the two industries. Moreover, the environmental service industry impacts the distribution service industry, but the distribution service industry does not impact the environmental service industry. This study contributed academically by offering base line data needed in the establishment of a future style of management and policy directions for the two industries through the prediction of the distribution service industry and the environmental service industry, and tested a causal relationship between them, which is insufficient in existing studies. The limitations of this study are that deeper considerations of advanced studies are deficient, and the effect of causality between the two types of industries on the actual industry was not established.

• 복식문화연구
• /
• 제2권1호
• /
• pp.167-186
• /
• 1994

The purpose of his study is to investigate the relationship between the business cycle and the fashion of silhouette from 1956 to 1992. Correlation analysis an regression analysis were used to investigate the relation of them. In this study, the coincident composite index was used as business cycle and change of skirt in length and width, collar and pants in width wee thoroughly checked through graphs and photographs. The results of analysis are as follows. 1. When the economy is to ascend, the skirts are short and narrow. On the country, when the economy is descend, they are long and wide. 2. The business cycle gives influence on skirts line and with, that is, about 18%, 33% of total changes. 3. In change of fashion, skirts length and width had significant positive correlation and they showed a tendency to move together. On the other hand, the change of collar and patterns in width have no connection with business fluctuation. 4. The change of fashion is affected by the movement of itself. According to analysis that includes the trend of skirts, about 50%, and 35% of changes in skirts length and width were decided by them,. and about 52% and 35% of change in collar and patterns width were decided by them.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
• /
• 제3권2호
• /
• pp.17-22
• /
• 2013

Purpose - This dissertation is based on previous research, and analyzes processing trade, which constitutes a major section of foreign trade in Shandong Province. Research design, data, and methodology - The study uses the survey data on polarization, which is a vital index reflecting the unbalanced growth of regional economic development. The article introduces the processing trade polarization index, and the processing trade polarization fluctuation rate, to predict the geographical polarization posture and development trends in Shandong Province. Results -The development of processing trade in Shandong Province shows the level of gradient from east to west. The first-line growth pole has been formed and developed, and the initial formation of the diffusion mechanism has taken place. However, coordination problems in accompanying regional development have become increasingly prominent. Conclusions - This study focuses on the development of processing trade strategy and suggests overall coordination of development objectives, using non-balanced development goals. According to regional characteristics and development objectives of the processing trade in Shandong Province, the region around the city is divided into innovation diffusion region, enhanced growth areas, areas expected to undertake development, and areas to upgrade in four levels, given the different policy proposals.

• 지능정보연구
• /
• 제18권2호
• /
• pp.143-156
• /
• 2012

누구나 뉴스와 주가 사이에는 밀접한 관계를 있을 것이라 생각한다. 그래서 뉴스를 통해 투자기회를 찾고, 투자이익을 얻을 수 있을 것으로 기대한다. 그렇지만 너무나 많은 뉴스들이 실시간으로 생성 전파되며, 정작 어떤 뉴스가 중요한지, 뉴스가 주가에 미치는 영향은 얼마나 되는지를 알아내기는 쉽지 않다. 본 연구는 이러한 뉴스들을 수집 분석하여 주가와 어떠한 관련이 있는지 분석하였다. 뉴스는 그 속성상 특정한 양식을 갖지 않는 비정형 텍스트로 구성되어있다. 이러한 뉴스 컨텐츠를 분석하기 위해 오피니언 마이닝이라는 빅데이터 감성분석 기법을 적용하였고, 이를 통해 주가지수의 등락을 예측하는 지능형 투자의사결정 모형을 제시하였다. 그리고, 모형의 유효성을 검증하기 위하여 마이닝 결과와 주가지수 등락 간의 관계를 통계 분석하였다. 그 결과 뉴스 컨텐츠의 감성분석 결과값과 주가지수 등락과는 유의한 관계를 가지고 있었으며, 좀 더 세부적으로는 주식시장 개장 전 뉴스들과 주가지수의 등락과의 관계 또한 통계적으로 유의하여, 뉴스의 감성분석 결과를 이용해 주가지수의 변동성 예측이 가능할 것으로 판단되었다. 이렇게 도출된 투자의사결정 모형은 여러 유형의 뉴스 중에서 시황 전망 해외 뉴스가 주가지수 변동을 가장 잘 예측하는 것으로 나타났고 로지스틱 회귀분석결과 분류정확도는 주가하락 시 70.0%, 주가상승 시 78.8%이며 전체평균은 74.6%로 나타났다.