• The Journal of Engineering Geology
• /
• v.33 no.1
• /
• pp.105-119
• /
• 2023

Water supply is decreasing due to climate change, and coastal and island regions are highly dependent on groundwater, reducing the amount of available water. For sustainable water supply in coastal and island regions, it is necessary to accurately diagnose the current condition and efficiently distribute and manage water. For a precise analysis of the groundwater flow in the coastal island region, submarine fresh groundwater discharge was calculated for the Seongsan basin in the eastern part of Jeju Island. Two methods were used to estimate the thickness of the fresh groundwater. One method employed vertical interpolation of measured electrical conductivity in a multi depth monitoring well; the other used theoretical Ghyben-Herzberg ratio. The value using the Ghyben-Herzberg ratio makes it impossible to accurately estimate the changing salt-saltwater interface, and the value analyzed by electrical conductivity can represent the current state of the freshwater-saltwater interface. Observed parameter was distributed on a virtual grid. The average of submarine fresh groundwater discharge fluxes for the virtual grid was determined as the watershed's representative flux. The submarine fresh groundwater discharge and flux distribution by year were also calculated at the basin scale. The method using electrical conductivity estimated the submarine fresh groundwater discharge from 2018 to 2020 to be 6.27 × 10⁶ m³/year; the method using the Ghyben-Herzberg ratio estimated a discharge of 10.87 × 10⁶ m³/year. The results presented in this study can be used as basis data for policies that determine sustainable water supply by using precise water budget analysis in coastal and island areas.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.20 no.4
• /
• pp.1-23
• /
• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.22 no.6
• /
• pp.708-722
• /
• 2016

Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) models for nutrient budgets were used to estimate the seasonal capacity of the Youngsan Estuary and Youngam-Geumho Estuary to sink and/or supply nutrients such as dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) and nitrogen (DIN) to provide an understanding of the behavior of the coupled biogeochemical cycles of phosphorus and nitrogen in the estuaries (Youngsan Estuary, Youngam-Geumho Estuary) near Mokpo Harbor. During non-stratified periods (May, September, and November, 2008), simple three-box models were applied in each sub-region of the system, while a two-layer box model was applied during on-site observation of stratification development (July, 2008). The resulting mass-balance calculation indicated that even after large discharges from artificial lakes (in May and July), DIP influxes due to a mixing exchange ($V_{X-3}$, or $V_{deep}$) were more than terrigenous loads, indicating the backward transportation of nutrients from a marine source. The model results also indicated that for nutrient loads (DIP and DIN fluxes) in September, an extreme congestion of nutrients occurred around the mouths (sub-region III of the model) of the estuaries, possibly due to an imbalance in physical circulations between the estuaries and offshore locations. In November, the Youngam-Geumho Estuary, into which freshwater was discharged from artificial lakes (Youngam and Geumho Lake), showed nutrient enrichment in the water column, but the Youngsan Estuary showed nutrient depletion. In conclusion, to efficiently control water quality in the estuaries near Mokpo Harbor, integrated environmental management programs should be implemented. I.e., the reduction of nutrient loads from land basins as well as the deposit of nutrient loads into adjacent coastal lines.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
• /
• v.29 no.1
• /
• pp.28-41
• /
• 2024

The carbon balance serves as a valuable indicator of a plant's physiological status under diverse environmental conditions. We investigated the photosynthetic and respiratory responses of the Asian surfgrass Phyllospadix iwatensis along the northeast coast of the Korean peninsula in response to changing water temperature (ranging from 5℃ to 30℃) to estimate the seasonal whole-plant carbon balance through a series of incubation experiments. The maximum gross photosynthetic rate (P_max) showed a significant difference among the temperature treatments, while there was no significant difference in photosynthetic efficiency (α). The maximum gross photosynthetic rate of P. iwatensis reached its peaks at 20℃ treatment (101.65 μmol O₂ g^-1 DW h^-1) but decreased rapidly at 30℃. The saturation irradiance (I_k), compensation irradiance (I_c), and respiration rate (R) of P. iwatensis exhibited significant differences among the temperature treatments. The saturation irradiance increased up to 20-25℃ (121.59-124.50 μmol photons m^-2 s^-1) and sharply decreased at 30℃. The compensation irradiance and respiration rate increased steadily with rising water temperature. The ratio of P_max to R (P_max:R ratio) was the highest at 5℃ but dramatically decreased at 30℃. The whole-plant carbon balance, calculated based on photosynthetic parameters, respiration rates, and biomass, exhibited distinct seasonal variation, increasing during winter and spring and decreasing during summer and fall, which is consistent with the highest in situ growth in spring and severely limited growth at the highest water temperature conditions. Phyllospadix iwatensis displayed a negative carbon balance during late summer, fall, and winter, but demonstrated a positive carbon balance during spring and early summer. Our findings suggest that the rising seawater temperatures associated with climate change may lead to significant alterations in the seagrass ecosystem functioning along the rocky shores of the Korean east coast.