• Title/Summary/Keyword: bogus vortex

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Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast Using Asymmetric 3-Dimensional Bogus Vortex (비축대칭 3차원 모조 소용돌이를 이용한 열대저기압의 진로 및 강도예측)

  • Lee, Jae-Deok;Cheong, Hyeong-Bin;Kang, Hyun-Gyu;Kwon, In-Hyuk
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.207-223
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    • 2014
  • The bogussing method was further developed by incorporating the asymmetric component into the symmetric bogus tropical cyclone of the Structure Adjustable Balanced Vortex (SABV). The asymmetric component is separated from the disturbance field associated with the tropical cyclone by establishing local polar coordinates whose center is the location of the tropical cyclone. The relative importance of wave components in azimuthal direction was evaluated, and only two or three wave components with large amplitude are added to the symmetric components. Using the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), initialized with the asymmetric bogus vortex, the track and central pressure of tropical cyclones were predicted. Nine tropical cyclones, which passed over Korean peninsula during 2010~2012 were selected to assess the effect of asymmetric components. Compared to the symmetric bogus tropical cyclone, the track forecast error was reduced by about 18.9% and 17.4% for 48 hours and 72 hours forecast, while the central pressure error was not improved significantly. The results suggest that the inclusion of asymmetric component is necessary to improve the track forecast of tropical cyclones.

Application of Vertical Grid-nesting to the Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast

  • Kim, Hyeon-Ju;Cheong, Hyeong-Bin;Lee, Chung-Hui
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.382-391
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    • 2019
  • The impact of vertical grid-nesting on the tropical cyclone intensity and track forecast was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) version 3.8 and the initialization method of the Structure Adjustable Balanced Bogus Vortex (SABV). For a better resolution in the central part of the numerical domain, where the tropical cyclone of interest is located, a horizontal and vertical nesting technique was employed. Simulations of the tropical cyclone Sanba (16th in 2012) indicated that the vertical nesting had a weak impact on the cyclone intensity and little impact on the track forecast. Further experiments revealed that the performance of forecast was quite sensitive to the horizontal resolution, which is in agreement with previous studies. The improvement is due to the fact that horizontal resolution can improve forecasts not only on the tropical cyclone-scale but also for large-scale disturbances.