• Title/Summary/Keyword: binomial method

Search Result 173, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

BAYES EMPIRICAL BAYES ESTIMATION OF A PROPORT10N UNDER NONIGNORABLE NONRESPONSE

  • Choi, Jai-Won;Nandram, Balgobin
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • v.32 no.2
    • /
    • pp.121-150
    • /
    • 2003
  • The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) is one of the surveys used to assess the health status of the US population. One indicator of the nation's health is the total number of doctor visits made by the household members in the past year, There is a substantial nonresponse among the sampled households, and the main issue we address here is that the nonrespones mechanism should not be ignored because respondents and nonrespondents differ. It is standard practice to summarize the number of doctor visits by the binary variable of no doctor visit versus at least one doctor visit by a household for each of the fifty states and the District of Columbia. We consider a nonignorable nonresponse model that expresses uncertainty about ignorability through the ratio of odds of a household doctor visit among respondents to the odds of doctor visit among all households. This is a hierarchical model in which a nonignorable nonresponse model is centered on an ignorable nonresponse model. Another feature of this model is that it permits us to "borrow strength" across states as in small area estimation; this helps because some of the parameters are weakly identified. However, for simplicity we assume that the hyperparameters are fixed but unknown, and these hyperparameters are estimated by the EM algorithm; thereby making our method Bayes empirical Bayes. Our main result is that for some of the states the nonresponse mechanism can be considered non-ignorable, and that 95% credible intervals of the probability of a household doctor visit and the probability that a household responds shed important light on the NHIS.

Genetic Epidemiological Analysis of Esophageal Cancer in High-incidence Areas of China

  • Wang, Kai-Juan;Yang, Jun-Xia;Shi, Jia-Chen;Deng, Song-Yuan;Cao, Xiao-Qin;Song, Chun-Hua;Wang, Peng
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.15 no.22
    • /
    • pp.9859-9863
    • /
    • 2014
  • Genetic epidemiological studies have shown that genetic susceptibility to esophageal cancer (EC) is an important cause of its high incidence within families in some areas of China. The purpose of this study was to obtain evidence of a genetic basis of EC in Xin-an and Xin-xiang counties in China. Familial aggregation and complex segregation analyses were performed of 79 EC families in these counties. The heritability of EC was examined using Falconer's method and complex segregation analysis was conducted with the SEGREG program in Statistical Analysis for Genetic Epidemiology (SAGE version 5.3.1). The results showed that the distribution of EC in families did not fit well into a binomial distribution. The heritability of EC among first-degree and second-degree relatives was $67.0{\pm}7.31%$ and $43.1%{\pm}9.80%$, respectively, and the summing up powered heritability was $53.2{\pm}6.74%$. The segregation ratio was 0.045. Complex segregation analysis showed that the genetic model of EC was additive. The current results provide evidence for an inherited propensity to EC in certain high-risk groups in China, and support efforts to identify the genes that confer susceptibility to this disease.

The Weighted Polya Posterior Confidence Interval For the Difference Between Two Independent Proportions (독립표본에서 두 모비율의 차이에 대한 가중 POLYA 사후분포 신뢰구간)

  • Lee Seung-Chun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.171-181
    • /
    • 2006
  • The Wald confidence interval has been considered as a standard method for the difference of proportions. However, the erratic behavior of the coverage probability of the Wald confidence interval is recognized in various literatures. Various alternatives have been proposed. Among them, Agresti-Caffo confidence interval has gained the reputation because of its simplicity and fairly good performance in terms of coverage probability. It is known however, that the Agresti-Caffo confidence interval is conservative. In this note, a confidence interval is developed using the weighted Polya posterior which was employed to obtain a confidence interval for the binomial proportion in Lee(2005). The resulting confidence interval is simple and effective in various respects such as the closeness of the average coverage probability to the nominal confidence level, the average expected length and the mean absolute error of the coverage probability. Practically it can be used for the interval estimation of the difference of proportions for any sample sizes and parameter values.

Predictors of Blood and Body Fluid Exposure and Mediating Effects of Infection Prevention Behavior in Shift-Working Nurses: Application of Analysis Method for Zero-Inflated Count Data (교대근무 간호사의 혈액과 체액 노출 사고 예측 요인과 감염예방행위의 매개효과: 영과잉 가산 자료 분석방법을 적용하여)

  • Ryu, Jae Geum;Choi-Kwon, Smi
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
    • /
    • v.50 no.5
    • /
    • pp.658-670
    • /
    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study aimed to identify the predictors of blood and body fluid exposure (BBFE) in multifaceted individual (sleep disturbance and fatigue), occupational (occupational stress), and organizational (hospital safety climate) factors, as well as infection prevention behavior. We also aimed to test the mediating effect of infection prevention behavior in relation to multifaceted factors and the frequency of BBFE. Methods: This study was based on a secondary data analysis, using data of 246 nurses from the Shift Work Nurses' Health and Turnover study. Based on the characteristics of zero-inflated and over-dispersed count data of frequencies of BBFE, the data were analyzed to calculate zero-inflated negative binomial regression within a generalized linear model and to test the mediating effect using SPSS 25.0, Stata 14.1, and PROCESS macro. Results: We found that the frequency of BBFE increased in subjects with disturbed sleep (IRR = 1.87, p = .049), and the probability of non-BBFE increased in subjects showing higher infection prevention behavior (IRR = 15.05, p = .006) and a hospital safety climate (IRR = 28.46, p = .018). We also found that infection prevention behavior had mediating effects on the occupational stress-BBFE and hospital safety climate-BBFE relationships. Conclusion: Sleep disturbance is an important risk factor related to frequency of BBFE, whereas preventive factors are infection prevention behavior and hospital safety climate. We suggest individual and systemic efforts to improve sleep, occupational stress, and hospital safety climate to prevent BBFE occurrence.

Study on the validation methods of calibration considering correlations (상관관계를 반영한 신용등급 계량화 검정기법 연구)

  • Kim, Enn-Na;Ha, Jeong-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.407-417
    • /
    • 2010
  • In Basel II compliance, internal rating systems are allowed for banks to enhance the self control and the validation of the system are getting more important. The validation methods are composed of qualitative test and quantitative test, three basic standards of which are discriminatory power, stability and calibration. The aim of this article is to review the quantitative tests for calibration and find a new method for it. These methods for discrimination between forecasted PD and observed PD include binomial test, chi square test, Brier score, traffic lights approach, normal test and extended traffic lights approach. We introduce a modified extended traffic lights approach considering asset correlations.

Smoking Cessation Intervention in Rural Kerala, India: Findings of a Randomised Controlled Trial

  • Jayakrishnan, Radhakrishnan;Uutela, Antti;Mathew, Aleyamma;Auvinen, Anssi;Mathew, Preethi Sara;Sebastian, Paul
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.14 no.11
    • /
    • pp.6797-6802
    • /
    • 2013
  • Background: Prevalence of tobacco use is higher in the rural than urban areas of India. Unlike tobacco cessation clinics located in urban areas, community-based smoking cessation intervention has the potential to reach a wider section of the community to assist in smoking cessation in the rural setting. The present study aimed to assess the effectiveness of a cessation intervention in rural Kerala state, India. Materials and Methods: Current daily smoking resident males in the age group 18-60 years from four community development blocks in rural Kerala were randomly allocated to intervention and control groups. The intervention group received multiple approaches in which priority was given to face-to-face interviews and telephone counselling. Initially educational materials on tobacco hazards were distributed. Further, four rounds of counselling sessions were conducted which included a group counselling with a medical camp as well as individual counselling by trained medical social workers. The control group received general awareness training on tobacco hazards along with an anti-tobacco leaflet. Self-reported smoking status was assessed after 6 and 12 months. Factors associated with tobacco cessation were estimated using binomial regression method. Results: Overall prevalence of smoking abstinence was 14.7% in the intervention and 6.8% in the control group (Relative risk: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.05, 3.25). A total of 41.3% subjects in the intervention area and 13.6% in the control area had reduced smoking by 50% or more at the end of 12 months. Lower number of cigarettes/ bidi used, low nicotine dependence and consultation with a doctor for a medical ailment were the statistically significant predictors for smoking cessation. Conclusions: Rigorous approaches for smoking cessation programmes can enhance quit rates in smoking in rural areas of India.

Reproductive Variables and Risk of Breast Malignant and Benign Tumours in Yunnan Province, China

  • Yanhua, Che;Geater, Alan;You, Jing;Li, Li;Shaoqiang, Zhou;Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi;Sriplung, Hutcha
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.13 no.5
    • /
    • pp.2179-2184
    • /
    • 2012
  • Introduction and aim: To compare reproductive factor influence on patients with pathological diagnosed malignant and benign tumor in the Breast Department, The First Peoples' Hospital of Kunming in Yunnan province, China. Methods: A hospital-based case-control study was conducted on 263 breast cancer (BC) cases and 457 non-breast cancer controls from 2009 to 2011. The cases and controls information on demographics, medical history, and reproductive characteristics variables were collected using a self-administered questionnaire and routine medical records. Histology of breast cancer tissue and benign breast lesion were documented by pathology reports. Since some variables in data analysis had zero count in at least one category, binomial-response GLM using the bias-reduction method was applied to estimate OR's and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). To adjust for age and menopause status, a compound variable comprising age and menopausal status was retained in the statistical models. Results: multivariate model analysis revealed significant independent positive associations of BC with short menstrual cycle, old age at first live birth, never breastfeeding, history of oral contraception experience, increased number of abortion, postmenopausal status, and nulliparity. Categorised by age and menopausal status, perimenopausal women had about 3-fold and postmenopausal women had more than 5-fold increased risk of BC compared to premenopausal women. Discussion and Conclusion: This study has confirmed the significant association of BC and estrogen related risk factors of breast cancer including longer menstrual cycle, older age of first live birth, never breastfeeding, nulliparity, and number of abortions more than one. The findings suggest that female hormonal factors, especially the trend of menopause status play a significant role in the development of BC in Yunnan women.

Sample Size Determination for Comparing Tail Probabilities (극소 비율의 비교에 대한 표본수 결정)

  • Lee, Ji-An;Song, Hae-Hiang
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.183-194
    • /
    • 2007
  • The problem of calculating the sample sizes for comparing two independent binomial proportions is studied, when one of two probabilities or both are smaller than 0.05. The use of Whittemore(1981)'s corrected sample size formula for small response probability, which is derived based oB multiple logistic regression, demonstrates much larger sample sizes compared to those by the asymptotic normal method, which is derived for the comparison of response probabilities belonging to the normal range. Therefore, applied statisticians need to be careful in sample size determination with small response probability to ensure intended power during a planning stage of clinical trials. The results of this study describe that the use of the sample size formula in the textbooks might sometimes be risky.

A Study on Improvement of Design Method for Freeway Diverging Areas (고속도로 분류부 설계기법 개선 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Beom;Lee, Seung-Jun;Gang, Jeong-Gyu;Kim, Il-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.25 no.1 s.94
    • /
    • pp.23-35
    • /
    • 2007
  • Freeway diverging areas are very vulnerable to traffic accidents due to abrupt vehicle speed changes and geometric changes. Therefore, in designing diverging areas, much attention should be Paid to safety The Present design criteria about freeway diverging areas regulate transition sections for lane changes, deceleration lanes, transition corves for direction changes. and other similar items. However, the design criteria were often violated in implementation because of ambiguities in the criteria. This study aims at clarifying and improving the present design criteria for freeway diverging areas. For this, field survey data and traffic accident data for diverging areas were analyzed.

Liu Yi and Hong Jung Ha's Kai Fang Shu (유익(劉益)과 홍정하(洪正夏)의 개방술(開方術))

  • Hong, Sung-Sa;Hong, Young-Hee;Kim, Young-Wook
    • Journal for History of Mathematics
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-13
    • /
    • 2011
  • In Tian mu bi lei cheng chu jie fa(田畝比類乘除捷法) of Yang Hui suan fa(楊輝算法)), Yang Hui annotated detailed comments on the method to find roots of quadratic equations given by Liu Yi in his Yi gu gen yuan(議古根源) which gave a great influence on Chosun Mathematics. In this paper, we show that 'Zeng cheng kai fang fa'(增乘開方法) evolved from a process of binomial expansions of $(y+{\alpha})^n$ which is independent from the synthetic divisions. We also show that extending the results given by Liu Yi-Yang Hui and those in Suan xue qi meng(算學啓蒙), Chosun mathematican Hong Jung Ha(洪正夏) elucidated perfectly the 'Zeng cheng kai fang fa' as the present synthetic divisions in his Gu il jib(九一集).