• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.107-112
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• 2008

To evaluate uncertainty and risk in biological reference points, we applied a bootstrapping method and a Bayesian procedure to estimate the related confidence intervals. Here we provide an example of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of turban shell, Batillus cornutus, estimated by the Schaefer and Fox models. Fitting the time series of catch and effort from 1968 to 2006 showed that the Fox model performs better than the Schaefer model. The estimated MSY and its bootstrap percentile confidence interval (CI) at ${\alpha}=0.05$ were 1,680 (1,420-1,950) tons for the Fox model and 2,170 (1,860-2,500) tons for the Schaefer model. The CIs estimated by the Bayesian approach gave similar ranges: 1,710 (1,450-2,000) tons for the Fox model and 2,230 (1,760-2,930) tons for the Schaefer model. Because uncertainty in effort and catch data is believed to be greater for earlier years, we evaluated the influence of sequentially excluding old data points by varying the first year of the time series from 1968 to 1992 to run 'backward' bootstrap resampling. The results showed that the means and upper 2.5% confidence limit (CL) of MSY varied greatly depending on the first year chosen whereas the lower 2.5% CL was robust against the arbitrary selection of data, especially for the Schaefer model. We demonstrated that the bootstrap and Bayesian approach could be useful in precautionary fisheries management, and we advise that the lower 2.5% CL derived by the Fox model is robust and a better biological reference point for the turban shells of Jeju Island.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2004.08a
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• pp.631-634
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• 2004

In this paper, the Bayesian recurrent neural network (BRNN) is proposed to predict time series data. Among the various traditional prediction methodologies, a neural network method is considered to be more effective in case of non-linear and non-stationary time series data. A neural network predictor requests proper learning strategy to adjust the network weights, and one need to prepare for non-linear and non-stationary evolution of network weights. The Bayesian neural network in this paper estimates not the single set of weights but the probability distributions of weights. In other words, we sets the weight vector as a state vector of state space method, and estimates its probability distributions in accordance with the Bayesian inference. This approach makes it possible to obtain more exact estimation of the weights. Moreover, in the aspect of network architecture, it is known that the recurrent feedback structure is superior to the feedforward structure for the problem of time series prediction. Therefore, the recurrent network with Bayesian inference, what we call BRNN, is expected to show higher performance than the normal neural network. To verify the performance of the proposed method, the time series data are numerically generated and a neural network predictor is applied on it. As a result, BRNN is proved to show better prediction result than common feedforward Bayesian neural network.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.316-321
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• 2007

We propose a quatitative annotation method for edges in Bayesian networks using given sets of condition-specific data. Bayesian network model has been used widely in various fields to infer probabilistic dependency relationships between entities in target systems. Besides the need for identifying dependency relationships, the annotation of edges in Bayesian networks is required to analyze the meaning of learned Bayesian networks. We assume the training data is composed of several condition-specific data sets. The contribution of each condition-specific data set to each edge in the learned Bayesian network is measured using the ratio of likelihoods between network structures of including and missing the specific edge. The proposed method can be a good approach to make quantitative annotation for learned Bayesian network structures while previous annotation approaches only give qualitative one.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.435-451
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• 2001

We describe a hierarchical bayesian model to analyze multinomial nonignorable nonresponse data. Using a Dirichlet and beta prior to model the cell probabilities, We develop a complete hierarchical bayesian analysis for multinomial proportions without making any algebraic approximation. Inference is sampling based and Markove chain Monte Carlo methods are used to perform the computations. We apply our method to the dta on body mass index(BMI) and show the model works reasonably well.

• Computational Structural Engineering : An International Journal
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.81-87
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• 2001

A framework for reliability analysis of structural components and systems under conditions of statistical and model uncertainty is presented. The Bayesian parameter estimation method is used to derive the posterior distribution of model parameters reflecting epistemic uncertainties. Point, predictive and bound estimates of reliability accounting for parameter uncertainties are derived. The bounds estimates explicitly reflect the effect of epistemic uncertainties on the reliability measure. These developments are enhance-ments of second-moment uncertainty analysis methods developed by A. H-S. Ang and others three decades ago.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.139-145
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• 2002

This paper deals with the problem of obtaining the Bayesian predictive density function and the prediction intervals for a future observation and the p-th order statistics of n future observations for the exponential model under the censored sampling with incomplete information.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.121-131
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• 2007

In this paper, we examine the problem of estimating the sensitive characteristics and behaviors in a multinomial randomized response model using Bayesian approach. We derived a posterior distribution for parameter of interest for multinomial randomized response model. Based on the posterior distribution, we also calculated a credible intervals and mean squared error (MSE). We finally compare the maximum likelihood estimator and the Bayes estimator in terms of MSE.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.245-261
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• 2005

The marginal distribution of X is considered when (X, Y) has a truncated bivariate t-distribution. This paper mainly focuses on the marginal nontruncated distribution of X where Y is truncated below at its mean and its observations are not available. Several properties and applications of this distribution, including relationship with Azzalini's skew-normal distribution, are obtained. To circumvent inferential problem arises from adopting the frequentist's approach, a Bayesian method utilizing a data augmentation method is suggested. Illustrative examples demonstrate the performance of the method.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.551-560
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• 2010

This paper considers a Bayesian approach to modeling a flexible regression function under structural measurement error model. The regression function is modeled based on semiparametric regression with penalized splines. Model fitting and parameter estimation are carried out in a hierarchical Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology. Their performances are compared with those of the estimators under structural measurement error model without a semiparametric component.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.543-548
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• 2007

We present a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model of a generalized class of nonstationary birth-death processes. The model includes birth and death rate parameters that are randomly selected from a known discrete set of values. We present an on-line algorithm to obtain optimal estimates of the parameters. We provide a simulation of real-time characterization of load traffic estimation using our DBN approach.