• 경영과학
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.179-197
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• 2005

This study examines market acceptance for DMB service, one of the touted new business models in Korea's next-generation mobile communications service market, using adoption end diffusion of innovation as the theoretical framework. Market acceptance for DMB service was assessed by predicting the demand for the service using the Bass model, and the demand variability over time was then analyzed by integrating the innovation adoption model proposed by Rogers (2003). In our estimation of the Bass model, we derived the coefficient of innovation and coefficient of imitation, using actual diffusion data from the mobile telephone service market. The maximum number of subscribers was estimated based on the result of a survey on satellite DMB service. Furthermore, to test the difference in diffusion pattern between mobile phone service and satellite DMB service, we reorganized the demand data along the diffusion timeline according to Rogers' innovation adoption model, using the responses by survey subjects concerning their respective projected time of adoption. The comparison of the two demand prediction models revealed that diffusion for both took place forming a classical S-curve. Concerning variability in demand for DMB service, our findings, much in agreement with Rogers' view, indicated that demand was highly variable over time and depending on the adopter group. In distinguishing adopters into different groups by time of adoption of innovation, we found that income and lifestyle (opinion leadership, novelty seeking tendency and independent decision-making) were variables with measurable impact. Among the managerial variables, price of reception device, contents type, subscription fees were the variables resulting in statistically significant differences. This study, as an attempt to measure the market acceptance for satellite DMB service, a leading next-generation mobile communications service product, stands out from related studies in that it estimates the nature and level of acceptance for specific customer categories, using theories of innovation adoption and diffusion and based on the result of a survey conducted through one-to-one interviews. The authors of this paper believe that the theoretical framework elaborated in this study and its findings can be fruitfully reused in future attempts to predict demand for new mobile communications service products.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.85-110
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• 2008

In this study, we explore the long-term demand forecasting of high-price medical equipments based on logistic and Bass diffusion model. We analyze the specific pattern of each equipment's diffusion curve by interpreting the parameter estimates of Bass diffusion model. Our findings are as follows. First, ultrasonic imaging system, CT are in the stage of maturity and so, the future demands of them are not too large. Second, medical image processing unit is between growth stage and maturity stage and so, the demand is expected to increase considerably for two or three years. Third, MRI is in the stage of take-off and Mammmography X-ray system is in the stage of maturity but, estimates of the potential number of adopters based on logistic model is considerably different to that based on Bass diffusion model. It means that additional data for these two equipments should be collected and analyzed to obtain the reliable estimates of their demands. Fourth, medical image processing unit have the largest q value. It means that the word-of-mouth effect is important in the diffusion of this equipment. Fifth, for MRI and Ultrasonic system, q/p values have the relatively large value. It means that collective power has an important role in adopting these two equipments.

• 한국전자거래학회지
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.63-72
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• 2012

2000년대 초반부터 한국의 이동통신시장은 급속하게 팽창해 왔으며, 최근 들어 그 성장 속도가 둔화되고 있으나 성장은 계속 진행 중에 있다. 이와 같은 환경에서 4세대 이동통신 서비스가 2011년 10월부터 시작되어 3세대 서비스와 4세대 서비스가 함께 존재하고 이를 통해 이동통신시장의 경쟁구도가 더욱 복잡하고 치열한 상황이 되었다. 본 연구는 다세대 확산 모형을 활용하여 3세대 및 4세대 이동통신 서비스 가입자 규모를 예측하는데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 세 개의 파라미터, 즉 Norton and Bass 모형[11]에서 사용되는 혁신계수, 모방계수 및 포화수준계수의 값을 추정하기 위해 3세대에서 4세대로 대체되는 서비스 대체의 유사 사례를 역추적하는 방법을 사용하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과, 다세대 확산모형과 유사사례 추론을 통해 신규서비스인 4세대 이동통신서비스 시장규모를 성공적으로 예측할 수 있었다는 결론을 얻었다.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.267-273
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• 2001

While forecasting sales of a new product is very difficult, it is critical to market success. This is especially true when other products have a highly negative influence on the product because of competition effect. In this paper, we develop a choice-based competitive diffusion model and apply to the case where two digital mobile telecommunication services, that is, digital cellular and PCS services, compete. The basic premise is that demand patterns result from choice behavior, where customers choose a product to maximize their utility. In comparison with Bass-type competitive diffusion models, our model provides superior fitting and forecasting performance. The choice-based model is useful in that it enables the description of such competitive environments and provides the flexibility to include marketing mix variables such as price and advertising.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제48권4호
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• pp.987-1001
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• 2021

One of the most critical issues in the dairy industry, alongside the low birth rate and the aging population, is the decrease in demand for milk. In this study, the consumption trends of 12 major dairy products distributed in Korea were predicted using a logistic model, the Gompertz model, and the Bass diffusion model, which are representative S-shaped growth models. The 12 dairy products are fermented milk (liquid type, cream type), butter, milk powder (modified, whole, skim), liquid milk (market, flavored), condensed milk, cheese (natural, processed), and cream. As a result of the analysis, the growth potential of butter, condensed milk, natural cheese, processed cheese, and cream consumption among the 12 dairy products is relatively high, whereas the growth of the remaining dairy product consumption is expected to stagnate or decrease. However, butter and cream are by-products of the skim milk powder manufacturing process. Therefore, even if the consumption of butter and cream grows, it is difficult to increase the demand of domestic milk unless the production of skim milk powder produced from domestic milk is also increased. Therefore, in order to support the domestic dairy industry, policy support should be focused on increasing domestic milk usage for the production of condensed milk, natural cheese, and processed cheese.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제39권5호
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• pp.412-421
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• 2013

Motion picture industry is one of the most representative fields in the cultural industry and has experienced constant growth both worldwide and within domestic markets. However, little research has been undertaken for diffusion patterns of motion pictures, whereas various issues such as demand forecasting and success factor analysis have been widely explored. To analyze diffusion patterns, we adopted extended Bass model to reflect the potential demand of movies. Four clusters of selected movies were derived by k-means clustering method with criteria of opening strength and profitability and then compared by their diffusion patterns. Results indicated that movies with high profitability and medium opening strength are most significantly influenced by word of mouth effect, while low profitability movies display nearly monotonic decreasing diffusion patterns with noticeable initial adoption rates and relatively early peak points in their runs.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.117-125
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• 2016

In this research, economic analysis of Integrated Information System for Nano-convergence Industy (hereafter 'NANOIN'), which was developed and has been in operation by Organization of Nano-convergence Industrial Cooperation, is conducted. For this purpose, the research has been carried out in the following order. First, NANOIN user's maximum willingness-to-pay is estimated using contingent valuation method, the number for NANOIN users is estimated using Bass Diffusion Model, and annual benefit from NANOIN is estimated. Next, annual cost from NANOIN is estimated using annual budget for NANOIN related planned activities. Finally, economic value of NANOIN is evaluated using economic analysis applied to the estimated annual NANOIN benefit and cost. From the economic analysis, it is found that NANOIN has some economic value. It is expected that the procedures suggested in this research can help to systematically evaluate economic value for public goods which have not only uncertain benefit from user's side but also uncertain demand just like NANOIN.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2007년도 제38회 하계학술대회
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• pp.842-843
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• 2007

In this paper, the proper rebate level can be decided in programs of energy savings by solving an optimization problem with an objective function, which satisfies a maximum value of total energy savings. And then, each prevalence amount is estimated by using virtual Bass model which is a function of rebate level, instead of the conventional Bass model. Finally, by cost/benefit analysis of the estimated prevalence amounts, the priority order is obtained for the investment of each program. The priority order obtained in this way may result the improvement of investment efficiency for DSM(Demand-Side Management) programs and the reasonable plan decision for supply and demand in power system.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.79-104
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• 2002

A system dynamics project is going on for forecasting automobile market in Korea. The project is made up of three stages, and the first stage has been wrapped up. As the first attempt, most efforts have been focused on the sound foundation rather than the exact forecast. The model consists of three sectors; the supply sector, the demand sector, and the population sector. The supply sector is a simple stock and flow diagrams representing the supply capacities of all automobile types. The major effort is made on the demand sector and the population sector. The demands are divided into three categories; replacement demands, new demands, and additional demands. The model applies “one car per person" concept, and assumes there will be no additional demands for a while. The replacement demands are calculated based on a simple stock and flow diagram. The new demands are calculated via Bass models; each bass model represents a diffusion for each age group. The population is divided into 101 age groups (age 0 to age 100). The model has been calibrated with past 10 year data (1990 - 1999), and tested for the next two years (2000-2001). The results ware acceptable, although a fine tuning is required. Now the second stage is going on, and most of efforts are made how to incorporate the economic and cultural factors.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.367-372
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• 2018

The objective of this paper is to optimize the cross-section of aluminum decking units used in the bass boats under operating conditions, and to verify the optimized model from the results via by ANSYS software. Aluminum decking unit is needed to endure specific loading while leisure activity and sailing. For a stiffer and more cost-neutral aluminum decking unit, optimization is often considered in the naval and marine industries. This optimization of the aluminum decking unit is performed using the ANSYS program, which is based on the topology optimization method. The generation of finite element models and stress evaluations are conducted using the ANSYS Multiphysics module, which is based on the Finite Element Method (FEM). Through such a series of studies, it was possible to determine the most suitable case for satisfying the structural strength found among the phase-optimized aluminum deck units in bass boats. From these optimization results, CASE 1 shows the best solution in comparison with the other cases for this optimization. By linking the topology optimization with the structural strength analysis, the optimal solution can be found in a relatively short amount of time, and these procedures are expected to be applicable to many fields of engineering.