• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.1116-1123
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• 2006

The methodological framework proposed in this paper addresses the strength of the applied Bass model by Mahajan and Muller(1996) that it reflects the substitution of next generations among products. Also this paper is to estimate and analyze the forecast of demand for products that do not exist in the marketplace. We forecast the sales of digital TV using estimated market share and data obtained by the face to face Interview. In this research, we use two methods to analyze the demand for Digital TV that are the forecasting the Demand for the Substitution and binary logit analysis. The logit analysis is to estimate the decisive factor of purchasing digital TV. The decisive factors are composed of purchasing plan, region, gender, TV price, contents, coverage, income, age, and TV program. We apply the model to South Korea's market for digital TV. The results show that (1) Income, region and TV price play a prominent part which is the decisive factor of purchasing digital TV. (2) We forecaste the demand of digital TV that will be demanded about 18 millions TVs in 2015

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.25 no.9
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• pp.1234-1243
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• 2021

This study intends to provide a forecast of the diffusion of countries participating in a newly proposed G to G mechanism named as the "International Defense Industry Cooperation Program of Korea", modeled after the U.S. Foreign Military Sales(FMS). For this purpose, the study analyses 40 years of statistical data of U.S. FMS customers to find two parameters, coefficient of innovation and imitation, which explain the diffusion in FMS customers. Furthermore, the study forecasts the diffusion in international participation to the proposed mechanism taking account of the differences in the level of government competitiveness and the strength of defense industrial base of Korea and the U.S. This study also provides recommendations for accelerating the desired outcomes under the new program. While Korea is likely to have relative advantages over 'imitators' in the international market, it will need to gain competitiveness in high-level capabilities going beyond the realm of medium-high level systems, and present attractive alternatives for offsets.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2020.05a
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• pp.413-416
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• 2020

COVID-19(Coronavirus Disease 2019)는 RNA 형 바이러스로써 점막감염(粘膜感染)과 비말전파(飛沫傳播)로 전염되는 급성 호흡기성 질병이다. 2019 년 12 월 중국 후베이 우한에서 처음 감염이 보고된 후 빠르게 글로벌로 확산되었고, 현재 여러 국가와 지역이 Lockdown 상태에 있다. COVID-19 의 치사율은 국가별, 연령별 차이는 있으나 사스(SARS-CoV), 메르스(MERS-CoV) 등과 비교하여 높다고 할 수 없다. 그러나 COVID-19 는 신종 코로나바이러스로써 아직 백신(Vaccine)과 항바이러스제가 개발되지 않았고 다른 질병과 비교하여 빠른 감염 속도때문에 의료 공백, 사회적 혼란, 경제적 손실을 크게 일으키고 있다. 따라서 바이러스의 확산 양상을 데이터 분석을 통하여 예측할 수 있다면 사회·경제적인 폐해를 줄일 수 있어 Bass 모델과 R 패키지를 이용하여 COVID-19 확산 예측 모형을 계량적으로 제시하였다.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.1-11
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• 2006

The Bass model assumes two communication channels: mass-media and word-of-mouth. In this paper, we call the mass-media Type I channel of communications. The word-of-mouth channel means interaction between non-adopters and adopters. Let us call it Type II channel of communications. In the real world, however, the non-adopters who are not aware of the innovation can be affected by communications with other non-adopters who are aware of it. Let us call it Type III channel of communications to differentiate with Type II channel. This paper analyzes the impact of Type III channel on diffusion process. The result shows that exponential growth patterns (for example, the adoption patterns of the blockbuster movies) can be observed when non-adopters are influenced by other non-adopters who aware of the innovation.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.231-276
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• 2019

This paper analyzed the impact of the penetration of EV(electric vehicle) and FCEV(fuel cell electric vehicle) into the automobile industry, using a static CGE approach. There are contrasting view on the economic impact of EV/FCEV penetration: negative economic impact due to shrunken intermediate inputs versus positive impact because of input saving technical progress. Regarding environment, there is no clear consensus whether EV or FCEV will contribute to the reduction of $CO_2$ emissions in Korea. This study attempts to provide an answer to these questions. By giving shocks to the input coefficients of automobile industries and automobile using sectors, as well as to the final demands for energies. we integrated the Bass diffusion model into the CGE framework, The result suggests that the EV penetration has adverse impact on the $CO_2$ emission while the FCEV penetration has positive impact. On the other hand, both EV and FCEV have positive impacts on GDP. When considering automobile manufacturing sectors only, adverse impacts on $CO_2$ are demonstrated both for EV and FCEV. However, since the size of $CO_2$ increase is small, these results does not alter the overall effects.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.1-29
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• 2008

The objective of our study is to provide an exploratory model for forecasting sales take-off timing of a product in the context of multi-national markets. We evaluated the usefulness of key predictors such as multiple market information, product attributes, price, and sales for the forecasting of sales take-off timing by applying the suggested model to monthly sales data for PDP and LCD TV provided by a Korean electronics manufacturer. We have found some important results for global companies from the empirical analysis. Firstly, innovation coefficients obtained from sales data of a particular product in other markets can provide the most useful information on sales take-off timing of the product in a target market. However, imitation coefficients obtained from the sales data of a particular product in the target market and other markets are not useful for sales take-off timing of the product in the target market. Secondly, price and product attributes significantly influence on take-off timing. It is noteworthy that the ratio of the price of the target product to the average price of the market is more important than the price ofthe target product itself. Lastly, the cumulative sales of the product are still useful for the prediction of sales take-off timing. Our model outperformed the average model in terms of hit-rate.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.21-33
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• 2001

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) was first introduced in Korea early 1990's, and Korean government has put a lot of efforts for flourishing it in the entire nation. Regardless of these efforts, private participation is not active enough to accelerate ITS implementation in Korea. Expert group made every endeavor to analyze the current situation, and found out some phenomena. It may be summarized as two folds. Firstly, private sector has a lack of confidence on the future ITS market. Budget in the strategic plan is the only publication and guide that private sector can refer to, and it merely indicates deployment costs. Secondly, direction and procedure of R&D are not well defined. It implies that private sector takes too much risk when they invest for R&D. This research, therefore, focuses on the first issues. Concretely, the goal of the project was to establish and analyze the model for estimation the future ITS market side. Author reviewed both quantitative and qualitative models, and concluded that diffusion model in qualitative model was suitable for ITS market estimation. According to model calibration. it is estimated that 14 trillion Won was the market size in 2020 under normal condition. Impact of this result may seduce Information Technology(IT) related private companies into ITS market. Although this research couldn't cover various topics, it nay dedicate in boosting ITS in Korea. Also, it will be a good starting point for further study for the advancement of ITS.