• 제목/요약/키워드: annual trend

검색결과 698건 처리시간 0.03초

계층적 베이지안 모델을 적용한 극치 해수위 비정상성 빈도 분석 (Hierarchical Bayesian Model Based Nonstationary Frequency Analysis for Extreme Sea Level)

  • 김용탁;오랑치맥 솜야;권현한;황규남
    • 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.34-43
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    • 2016
  • 국내의 연안은 지속적 발전으로 해수면 상승(sea level rise, SLR)으로 인한 연안재해 취약성이 가중될 것으로 전망되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 평균해수면 상승에 따른 극치조위 자료에 대한 비정상성 빈도분석을 수행하였다. Mann-Kendall(MK) 검정 결과 연평균조위(annual average tide)의 경우 17개 지점에서 경향성이 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났으며, 연극치 조위의 경우에는 7개 지점에서 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 비정상성 빈도 해석 결과 2100년에 한반도 연안의 극치 해수면 변화는 최소 60.33 mm에서 최대 214.90 mm까지 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다.

Analysis of Esophageal Cancer Time Trends in China, 1989-2008

  • Zhao, Jun;He, Yu-Tong;Zheng, Rong-Shou;Zhang, Si-Wei;Chen, Wan-Qing
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제13권9호
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    • pp.4613-4617
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    • 2012
  • National cancer incidence data were utilized to analyze trends in esophageal cancer incidence in China in order to provide basic information for making cancer control strategy. We retrieved and re-sorted valid esophageal cancer incidence data from National Central Cancer Registry Database over 20 years period from 1989 to 2008. Crude incidence and age-standardized incidence rates were calculated for analysis, with annual percent change estimated by Joinpoint software for long term trend analysis. The crude incidence rate of esophageal cancer was found to have remained relatively stable in both urban and rural areas over the 20 year period. Age standardized incidence rate (ASR) in cancer registration areas decreased from 39.5/100,000 in 1989 to 23.0/100,000 in 2008 in all areas (AAPC=-3.3%, 95% CI:-2.8~-3.7). The trend was no change in urban areas and 2.1% average annual decrease observed in rural aras. Before the year of 2000, esophageal cancer incidence rates significant decreased with 2.8% annually and then the rates kept stable. Over 20 years from 1989 to 2008, esophageal cancer age standardized incidence rate in cancer registration areas decreased with time. However, esophageal cancer is still a big issue and efforts for control should be continuously enhanced. Cancer registration is playing an important role in cancer control with the number of registries increasing and data quality improving in China.

2018 미충족의료율과 추이 (Unmet Healthcare Needs Status and Trend of Korea in 2018)

  • 주재홍;김휘준;장지은;박은철;장성인
    • 보건행정학회지
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    • 제30권1호
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    • pp.120-125
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    • 2020
  • Unmet healthcare needs lead to increased disease severity, increased likelihood of complications, and worse disease prognosis. To examine the latest status of unmet healthcare needs in South Korea, the four different data configured with nationally representative sample of South Korean population were used: the Korea Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNAHANES, 2007-2018), the Community Health Survey (CHS, 2008-2018), the Korea Health Panel Survey (KHP, 2011-2016), and the Korean Welfare Panel Study (KOWEPS, 2006-2018). The proportion of individuals reporting unmet healthcare needs were 7.8% (KNHANES, 2018), 8.8% (CHS), and 10.8% (KHP, 2016). Annual percentage change which characterizes trend for the follow-up period was -9.1%, -3.2%, and -6.8%, respectively. The proportion of individuals reporting unmet healthcare needs due to cost were 1.2% (KNAHANES, 2018), 1.2% (CHS, 2018), 2.5% (KHP, 2016), and 0.5% (KOWEPS, 2018). Annual percentage change which characterizes trend for the follow-up period was -10.3%, -12.0%, -11.3%, and -18.8, respectively. The low-income population and the elderly population were vulnerable groups reporting the highest rate of unmet health care needs. The rate of unmet healthcare needs has been declining since the past decade, still, the disparity between different income groups and age groups suggests that there are many challenges to address.

충청지역 극한강우지수의 시공간적 경향과 변동성 분석 (Analysis of Spatial-temporal Variability and Trends of Extreme Precipitation Indices over Chungcheong Province, South Korea)

  • Bashir, Adelodun;Golden, Odey;Seulgi, Lee;Kyung Sook, Choi
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제64권6호
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2022
  • Extreme precipitation events have recently become a leading cause of disasters. Thus, investigating the variability and trends of extreme precipitation is crucial to mitigate the increasing impact of such events. Spatial distribution and temporal trends in annual precipitation and four extreme precipitation indices of duration (CWD), frequency (R10 mm), intensity (Rx1day), and percentile-based threshold (R95pTOT) were analyzed using the daily precipitation data of 10 observation stations in Chungcheong province during 1974-2020. The precipitation at all observation stations, except the Boryeong station, showed nonsignificant increasing trends at 95% confidence level (CL) and increasing magnitudes from the west to east regions. The high variability in mean annual precipitation was more pronounced around the northeast and northwest regions. Similarly, there were moderate to high patterns in extreme precipitation indices around the northeast region. However, the precipitation indices of duration and frequency consistently increased from the west to east regions, while those of intensity and percentile-based threshold increased from the south to east regions. Nonsignificant increasing trends dominated in CWD, R10 mm, and Rx1day at all stations, except for R10 mm at Boeun station and Rx1day at Cheongju and Jecheon stations, which showed a significantly increasing trend. The spatial distribution of trend magnitude shows that R10 mm increased from the west to east regions. Furthermore, variations in precipitation were very strongly correlated (99% CL) with R10 mm, Rx1day, and R95pTOT at all stations, except with wR10 mm at Cheongju station, which was strongly correlated with a 95% CL.

비정상성 빈도해석을 위한 기상인자 선정 및 확률강우량 산정 (Selection of Climate Indices for Nonstationary Frequency Analysis and Estimation of Rainfall Quantile)

  • 정태호;김한빈;김현식;허준행
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제39권1호
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    • pp.165-174
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    • 2019
  • 수문관측자료에서 비정상성(nonstationarity)이 관측됨에 따라 수공구조물 설계에서 비정상성 빈도해석에 대한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 대기-해양 시스템에 내재된 기후 변동성은 비정상성 현상과 관련이 있는 것으로 알려져 있지만, 비정상성 빈도해석은 일반적으로 선형적 추세를 기반으로 이루어지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 기후 변동성과 극치 강우 사상의 장기 경향성을 고려하기 위하여 기상인자를 활용한 비정상성 빈도해석을 수행하였다. 먼저, 경향성이 나타나는 11개 기상관측지점의 연 최대치 강우자료에 대하여 통계적 분해 방법인 앙상블 경험적 모드분해법을 활용해 자료에 내재된 장기 경향성을 추출하였으며, 계절에 따른 다양한 기상인자와의 상관성 분석을 수행하였다. 그 결과, 연 최대 강우 발생년도를 기준으로 전년도 가을철 AMM과 전년도 가을철 AMO, 그리고 전년도 여름철 NINO4가 10개 이상의 지점에서 연 최대치 강우자료의 장기 경향성에 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 선정된 기상인자를 일반 극치(generalized extreme value, GEV) 분포모형에 적용하여 비정상성 GEV (NS-GEV) 모형을 구축하고 기존의 선형적 추세를 고려한 NS-GEV 모형과의 AIC값을 비교하여 최적모형을 선정하였다. 선정된 모형과 기존의 선형적 추세를 고려한 NS-GEV 모형에 대한 성능 평가를 통해 기상인자를 활용한 NS-GEV 모형이 극치강우사상을 반영하여 확률강우량의 과소산정 문제를 보완할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

연별 및 월별 FAO Penman-Monteith 기준증발산 추세 분석 (Trends of Annual and Monthly FAO Penman-Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration)

  • 임창수
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제28권1B호
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 지리 및 지형적 특성과 도시화에 따른 기후변화가 기준증발산량에 미치는 영향을 파악하기 위하여 FAO P-M 기준증발산식을 이용하여 연별 및 각 월별 기준증발산량과 기준증발산식의 에너지항 및 공기동력항 변화추세를 분석하였다. 추세분석을 위하여 전국 21개 연구지역에서 일별 기후자료를 수집하여 Spearman 순위상관분석, Sen분석(Sen's estimator of slope) 그리고 실제변화율분석과 선형회귀분석 등을 실시하였다. 또한 도시지역 특성에 따라 21개 연구지역을 군집화하였고, 각 군집에 따른 기준증발산과 기준증발산식의 에너지항 및 공기동력항의 변화를 분석하였다. 연구결과에 의하면 도시화정도는 기준증발산, 에너지항 및 공기동력항의 변화추세 및 크기에 밀접한 영향이 있으나, 변화추세 정도(Sen's slope)에는 큰 영향이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 에너지항의 경우 해안지역에서는 주로 증가추세를 보이는 반면, 내륙지역에서는 일부 월을 제외하고 감소추세를 보이고 있다. 또한 지역 경사도는 에너지항보다는 공기동력항 변화추세 정도(Sen's slope)에 더 큰 영향력을 보이는 것으로 판단된다. 공기동력항의 경우 해안 및 내륙지역에서 증가추세를 보이고 있고, 내륙지역이 해안지역보다 더 큰 공기동력항의 증가추세를 보이고 있다.

2015 재난적 의료비 경험률과 추이 (Catastrophic Health Expenditure Status and Trend of Korea in 2015)

  • 김우림;박은철
    • 보건행정학회지
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.84-87
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    • 2017
  • Catastrophic healthcare expenditure refers to out-of-pocket spending for healthcare exceeding a certain proportion of a household's income and can lead to subsequent impoverishment. The aim of this study was to investigate the proportion of South Korean households that experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure between 2006 and 2015 using available data from the Korea Health Panel, National Survey of Tax and Benefit, and Household Income and Expenditure Survey. Frequencies and trend tests were conducted to analyze the proportion of households with catastrophic healthcare expenditure. Subgroup analysis was performed based on income level. The results of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey revealed that around 2.88% of households experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure in 2015 and that this proportion was highest in the low income group. Results also showed a statistically significant increasing trend in the number of households with catastrophic healthcare expenditure (annual percentage change= 0.92%, p-value < 0.0001). Therefore, the findings infer a need to strengthen public health care financing and to particularly monitor catastrophic healthcare expenditure in the low income group.

Climatological Trend of Sea Water Temperature around the Antarctic Peninsula Waters in the Southern Ocean

  • Lee, Chung-Il;Kim, Sang-Woo;Kim, Dong-Sun;Yoon, Moon-Geun
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.125-133
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    • 2012
  • Climatological trend for the period of 1970 to 2009 in sea water temperature around the Antarctic Peninsular waters in the Southern Ocean was investigated. During the period from 1970 to 2009, sea water temperature in the top 500 m water column except 100 m increased at a rate of $0.003-0.011^{\circ}C{\cdot}yr^{-1}$, but at 100 m it decreased at a rate of $-0.003^{\circ}C{\cdot}yr^{-1}$. Although long-term trend is generally warming, there were several periods of sharp changes between 1970 and 2009. Annual mean sea water temperature between surface and 500 m except 100 m decreased from the early of 1970s to the end of 1980s, and then it increased to the end of 2000s. In the entire water column between the surface and 500 m, sea water temperature closely correlated with the El Nino events expressed as the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI), and SOI and sea water temperature have a dominant period of about 3-5 years and decade.

네트워크 분석을 통한 최근 5년간 중국내 미병 연구동향 고찰 (Review of Subhealth and Mee-byung Research Trend as a Method of Network Analysis from 2007 to 2011 in China)

  • 이재철;진희정
    • 동의생리병리학회지
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    • 제26권5호
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    • pp.615-620
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    • 2012
  • This research aims to analyze the trend of subhealth and meebyung(未病) research as a method of network analysis from 2007 to 2011 in China. A total of 3,933 papers were involved in analysis from 5,465 searched papers, which title have '未病', '亞健康' in CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure). It is carried out that counts annual paper number, authors' publicized papers, and journals paper number related to subhealth. Network analysis was performed to reveal collaboration research trend and relations between Authors, Affiliations, and Regions. As a result, Number of related studies have increased for the last 5 years. East and south regions of China, which include Beijing, Guangxi, and Zhejiang have participated most in their studies, and also as collaborated researches. As affiliations, Researches done by College of Traditional Chinese medicine and their hospital's collaborations are most counted. Because of distance limit, many colleges or institutes seem to make contacts with nearby affiliations. This study is the first attempt to perform network analysis on subhealth research trend in CNKI. This study would contribute to related studies in case of network analysis method.

한반도 상공의 오존층 변화 1985~2009 (The Variations of Stratospheric Ozone over the Korean Peninsula 1985~2009)

  • 박상서;김준;조나영;이윤곤;조희구
    • 대기
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.349-359
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    • 2011
  • The climatology in stratospheric ozone over the Korean Peninsula, presented in previous studies (e.g., Cho et al., 2003; Kim et al., 2005), is updated by using daily and monthly data from satellite and ground-based data through December 2009. In addition, long-term satellite data [Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), 1979~2009] have been also analyzed in order to deduce the spatial distributions and temporal variations of the global total ozone. The global average of total ozone (1979~2009) is 298 DU which shows a minimum of about 244 DU in equatorial latitudes and increases poleward in both hemispheres to a maximum of about 391 DU in Okhotsk region. The recent period, from 2006 to 2009, shows reduction in total ozone by 6% relative to the values for the pre-1980s (1979~1982). The long-term trends were estimated by using a multiple linear regression model (e.g., WMO, 1999; Cho et al., 2003) including explanatory variables for the seasonal variation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and solar cycle over three different time intervals: a whole interval from 1979 to 2009, the former interval from 1979 to 1992, and the later interval from 1993 to 2009 with a turnaround point of deep minimum in 1993 is related to the effect of Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The global trend shows -0.93% $decade^{-1}$ for the whole interval, whereas the former and the later interval trends amount to -2.59% $decade^{-1}$ and +0.95% $decade^{-1}$, respectively. Therefore, the long-term total ozone variations indicate that there are positive trends showing a recovery sign of the ozone layer in both North/South hemispheres since around 1993. Annual mean total ozone (1985~2009) is distributed from 298 DU for Jeju ($33.52^{\circ}N$) to 352 DU for Unggi ($42.32^{\circ}N$) in almost zonally symmetric pattern over the Korean Peninsula, with the latitudinal gradient of 6 DU $degree^{-1}$. It is apparent that seasonal variability of total ozone increases from Jeju toward Unggi. The annual mean total ozone for Seoul shows 323 DU, with the maximum of 359 DU in March and the minimum of 291 DU in October. It is found that the day to day variability in total ozone exhibits annual mean of 5.7% in increase and -5.2% in decrease. The variability as large as 38.4% in increase and 30.3% in decrease has been observed, respectively. The long-term trend analysis (e.g., WMO, 1999) of monthly total ozone data (1985~2009) merged by satellite and ground-based measurements over the Korean Peninsula shows increase of 1.27% $decade^{-1}$ to 0.80% $decade^{-1}$ from Jeju to Unggi, respectively, showing systematic decrease of the trend magnitude with latitude. This study also presents a new analysis of ozone density and trends in the vertical distribution of ozone for Seoul with data up to the end of 2009. The mean vertical distributions of ozone show that the maximum value of the ozone density is 16.5 DU $km^{-1}$ in the middle stratospheric layer between 24 km and 28 km. About 90.0% and 71.5% of total ozone are found in the troposphere and in the stratosphere between 15 and 33 km, respectively. The trend analysis reconfirms the previous results of significant positive ozone trend, of up to 5% $decade^{-1}$, in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (0~24 km), with negative trend, of up to -5% $decade^{-1}$, in the stratosphere (24~38 km). In addition, the Umkehr data show a positive trend of about 3% $decade^{-1}$ in the upper stratosphere (38~48 km).