• Title/Summary/Keyword: annual trend

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Hierarchical Bayesian Model Based Nonstationary Frequency Analysis for Extreme Sea Level (계층적 베이지안 모델을 적용한 극치 해수위 비정상성 빈도 분석)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Uranchimeg, Sumiya;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Hwang, Kyu Nam
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.34-43
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    • 2016
  • Urban development and population increases are continuously progressed in the coastal areas in Korea, thus it is expected that vulnerability towards coastal disasters by sea level rise (SLR) would be accelerated. This study investigated trend of the sea level data using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, and the results showed that the increasing trends of annual average sea level at 17 locations were statistically significant. For annual maximum extremes, seven locations exhibited statistically significant trends. In this study, non-stationary frequency analysis for the annual extreme data together with average sea level data as a covariate was performed. Non-stationary frequency analysis results showed that sea level at the coastal areas of Korean Peninsula would be increased from a minimum of 60.33 mm to a maximum of 214.90 mm by 2100.

Analysis of Esophageal Cancer Time Trends in China, 1989-2008

  • Zhao, Jun;He, Yu-Tong;Zheng, Rong-Shou;Zhang, Si-Wei;Chen, Wan-Qing
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.4613-4617
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    • 2012
  • National cancer incidence data were utilized to analyze trends in esophageal cancer incidence in China in order to provide basic information for making cancer control strategy. We retrieved and re-sorted valid esophageal cancer incidence data from National Central Cancer Registry Database over 20 years period from 1989 to 2008. Crude incidence and age-standardized incidence rates were calculated for analysis, with annual percent change estimated by Joinpoint software for long term trend analysis. The crude incidence rate of esophageal cancer was found to have remained relatively stable in both urban and rural areas over the 20 year period. Age standardized incidence rate (ASR) in cancer registration areas decreased from 39.5/100,000 in 1989 to 23.0/100,000 in 2008 in all areas (AAPC=-3.3%, 95% CI:-2.8~-3.7). The trend was no change in urban areas and 2.1% average annual decrease observed in rural aras. Before the year of 2000, esophageal cancer incidence rates significant decreased with 2.8% annually and then the rates kept stable. Over 20 years from 1989 to 2008, esophageal cancer age standardized incidence rate in cancer registration areas decreased with time. However, esophageal cancer is still a big issue and efforts for control should be continuously enhanced. Cancer registration is playing an important role in cancer control with the number of registries increasing and data quality improving in China.

Unmet Healthcare Needs Status and Trend of Korea in 2018 (2018 미충족의료율과 추이)

  • Joo, Jae Hong;Kim, Hwi Jun;Jang, Jieun;Park, Eun-Cheol;Jang, Sung-In
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.120-125
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    • 2020
  • Unmet healthcare needs lead to increased disease severity, increased likelihood of complications, and worse disease prognosis. To examine the latest status of unmet healthcare needs in South Korea, the four different data configured with nationally representative sample of South Korean population were used: the Korea Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNAHANES, 2007-2018), the Community Health Survey (CHS, 2008-2018), the Korea Health Panel Survey (KHP, 2011-2016), and the Korean Welfare Panel Study (KOWEPS, 2006-2018). The proportion of individuals reporting unmet healthcare needs were 7.8% (KNHANES, 2018), 8.8% (CHS), and 10.8% (KHP, 2016). Annual percentage change which characterizes trend for the follow-up period was -9.1%, -3.2%, and -6.8%, respectively. The proportion of individuals reporting unmet healthcare needs due to cost were 1.2% (KNAHANES, 2018), 1.2% (CHS, 2018), 2.5% (KHP, 2016), and 0.5% (KOWEPS, 2018). Annual percentage change which characterizes trend for the follow-up period was -10.3%, -12.0%, -11.3%, and -18.8, respectively. The low-income population and the elderly population were vulnerable groups reporting the highest rate of unmet health care needs. The rate of unmet healthcare needs has been declining since the past decade, still, the disparity between different income groups and age groups suggests that there are many challenges to address.

Analysis of Spatial-temporal Variability and Trends of Extreme Precipitation Indices over Chungcheong Province, South Korea (충청지역 극한강우지수의 시공간적 경향과 변동성 분석)

  • Bashir, Adelodun;Golden, Odey;Seulgi, Lee;Kyung Sook, Choi
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.64 no.6
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2022
  • Extreme precipitation events have recently become a leading cause of disasters. Thus, investigating the variability and trends of extreme precipitation is crucial to mitigate the increasing impact of such events. Spatial distribution and temporal trends in annual precipitation and four extreme precipitation indices of duration (CWD), frequency (R10 mm), intensity (Rx1day), and percentile-based threshold (R95pTOT) were analyzed using the daily precipitation data of 10 observation stations in Chungcheong province during 1974-2020. The precipitation at all observation stations, except the Boryeong station, showed nonsignificant increasing trends at 95% confidence level (CL) and increasing magnitudes from the west to east regions. The high variability in mean annual precipitation was more pronounced around the northeast and northwest regions. Similarly, there were moderate to high patterns in extreme precipitation indices around the northeast region. However, the precipitation indices of duration and frequency consistently increased from the west to east regions, while those of intensity and percentile-based threshold increased from the south to east regions. Nonsignificant increasing trends dominated in CWD, R10 mm, and Rx1day at all stations, except for R10 mm at Boeun station and Rx1day at Cheongju and Jecheon stations, which showed a significantly increasing trend. The spatial distribution of trend magnitude shows that R10 mm increased from the west to east regions. Furthermore, variations in precipitation were very strongly correlated (99% CL) with R10 mm, Rx1day, and R95pTOT at all stations, except with wR10 mm at Cheongju station, which was strongly correlated with a 95% CL.

Selection of Climate Indices for Nonstationary Frequency Analysis and Estimation of Rainfall Quantile (비정상성 빈도해석을 위한 기상인자 선정 및 확률강우량 산정)

  • Jung, Tae-Ho;Kim, Hanbeen;Kim, Hyeonsik;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.165-174
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    • 2019
  • As a nonstationarity is observed in hydrological data, various studies on nonstationary frequency analysis for hydraulic structure design have been actively conducted. Although the inherent diversity in the atmosphere-ocean system is known to be related to the nonstationary phenomena, a nonstationary frequency analysis is generally performed based on the linear trend. In this study, a nonstationary frequency analysis was performed using climate indices as covariates to consider the climate variability and the long-term trend of the extreme rainfall. For 11 weather stations where the trend was detected, the long-term trend within the annual maximum rainfall data was extracted using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition. Then the correlation between the extracted data and various climate indices was analyzed. As a result, autumn-averaged AMM, autumn-averaged AMO, and summer-averaged NINO4 in the previous year significantly influenced the long-term trend of the annual maximum rainfall data at almost all stations. The selected seasonal climate indices were applied to the generalized extreme value (GEV) model and the best model was selected using the AIC. Using the model diagnosis for the selected model and the nonstationary GEV model with the linear trend, we identified that the selected model could compensate the underestimation of the rainfall quantiles.

Trends of Annual and Monthly FAO Penman-Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration (연별 및 월별 FAO Penman-Monteith 기준증발산 추세 분석)

  • Rim, Chang-Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.1B
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 2008
  • The effects of climatic changes owing to urbanization, geographical and topographical conditions on annual and monthly FAO Penman-Monteith (FAO P-M) reference evapotranspiration, and energy and aerodynamic terms of FAO P-M reference evapotranspiration were studied. In this study, 21 climatological stations were selected. The statistical methods applied for trend analysis are Spearman rank test, Sen's test, linear regression analysis and analysis of actual variation ratio. Furthermore, the cluster analysis was applied to cluster 21 study stations by considering the geographical and topographical characteristics of study area. The study results indicate that urbanization affects the trend and amount of FAO P-M reference evapotranspiration, energy term and aerodynamic term; however, the result of Sen's test indicates that urbanization does not significantly affect the magnitude of trend (Sen's slope). The energy term increased at study stations located in coastal area; however, decreased at study stations located in inland area. The topographical slope of study area did not significantly influence on the trend of energy term. The aerodynamic term increased in both coastal area and inland area, indicating much significantly increasing trend in inland area, and it was also affected by the topographical slope of the study area.

Catastrophic Health Expenditure Status and Trend of Korea in 2015 (2015 재난적 의료비 경험률과 추이)

  • Kim, Woorim;Park, Eun-Cheol
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.84-87
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    • 2017
  • Catastrophic healthcare expenditure refers to out-of-pocket spending for healthcare exceeding a certain proportion of a household's income and can lead to subsequent impoverishment. The aim of this study was to investigate the proportion of South Korean households that experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure between 2006 and 2015 using available data from the Korea Health Panel, National Survey of Tax and Benefit, and Household Income and Expenditure Survey. Frequencies and trend tests were conducted to analyze the proportion of households with catastrophic healthcare expenditure. Subgroup analysis was performed based on income level. The results of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey revealed that around 2.88% of households experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure in 2015 and that this proportion was highest in the low income group. Results also showed a statistically significant increasing trend in the number of households with catastrophic healthcare expenditure (annual percentage change= 0.92%, p-value < 0.0001). Therefore, the findings infer a need to strengthen public health care financing and to particularly monitor catastrophic healthcare expenditure in the low income group.

Climatological Trend of Sea Water Temperature around the Antarctic Peninsula Waters in the Southern Ocean

  • Lee, Chung-Il;Kim, Sang-Woo;Kim, Dong-Sun;Yoon, Moon-Geun
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.125-133
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    • 2012
  • Climatological trend for the period of 1970 to 2009 in sea water temperature around the Antarctic Peninsular waters in the Southern Ocean was investigated. During the period from 1970 to 2009, sea water temperature in the top 500 m water column except 100 m increased at a rate of $0.003-0.011^{\circ}C{\cdot}yr^{-1}$, but at 100 m it decreased at a rate of $-0.003^{\circ}C{\cdot}yr^{-1}$. Although long-term trend is generally warming, there were several periods of sharp changes between 1970 and 2009. Annual mean sea water temperature between surface and 500 m except 100 m decreased from the early of 1970s to the end of 1980s, and then it increased to the end of 2000s. In the entire water column between the surface and 500 m, sea water temperature closely correlated with the El Nino events expressed as the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI), and SOI and sea water temperature have a dominant period of about 3-5 years and decade.

Review of Subhealth and Mee-byung Research Trend as a Method of Network Analysis from 2007 to 2011 in China (네트워크 분석을 통한 최근 5년간 중국내 미병 연구동향 고찰)

  • Lee, Jae Chul;Jin, Hee Jeong
    • Journal of Physiology & Pathology in Korean Medicine
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.615-620
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    • 2012
  • This research aims to analyze the trend of subhealth and meebyung(未病) research as a method of network analysis from 2007 to 2011 in China. A total of 3,933 papers were involved in analysis from 5,465 searched papers, which title have '未病', '亞健康' in CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure). It is carried out that counts annual paper number, authors' publicized papers, and journals paper number related to subhealth. Network analysis was performed to reveal collaboration research trend and relations between Authors, Affiliations, and Regions. As a result, Number of related studies have increased for the last 5 years. East and south regions of China, which include Beijing, Guangxi, and Zhejiang have participated most in their studies, and also as collaborated researches. As affiliations, Researches done by College of Traditional Chinese medicine and their hospital's collaborations are most counted. Because of distance limit, many colleges or institutes seem to make contacts with nearby affiliations. This study is the first attempt to perform network analysis on subhealth research trend in CNKI. This study would contribute to related studies in case of network analysis method.

The Variations of Stratospheric Ozone over the Korean Peninsula 1985~2009 (한반도 상공의 오존층 변화 1985~2009)

  • Park, Sang Seo;Kim, Jhoon;Cho, Nayeong;Lee, Yun Gon;Cho, Hi Ku
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.349-359
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    • 2011
  • The climatology in stratospheric ozone over the Korean Peninsula, presented in previous studies (e.g., Cho et al., 2003; Kim et al., 2005), is updated by using daily and monthly data from satellite and ground-based data through December 2009. In addition, long-term satellite data [Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), 1979~2009] have been also analyzed in order to deduce the spatial distributions and temporal variations of the global total ozone. The global average of total ozone (1979~2009) is 298 DU which shows a minimum of about 244 DU in equatorial latitudes and increases poleward in both hemispheres to a maximum of about 391 DU in Okhotsk region. The recent period, from 2006 to 2009, shows reduction in total ozone by 6% relative to the values for the pre-1980s (1979~1982). The long-term trends were estimated by using a multiple linear regression model (e.g., WMO, 1999; Cho et al., 2003) including explanatory variables for the seasonal variation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and solar cycle over three different time intervals: a whole interval from 1979 to 2009, the former interval from 1979 to 1992, and the later interval from 1993 to 2009 with a turnaround point of deep minimum in 1993 is related to the effect of Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The global trend shows -0.93% $decade^{-1}$ for the whole interval, whereas the former and the later interval trends amount to -2.59% $decade^{-1}$ and +0.95% $decade^{-1}$, respectively. Therefore, the long-term total ozone variations indicate that there are positive trends showing a recovery sign of the ozone layer in both North/South hemispheres since around 1993. Annual mean total ozone (1985~2009) is distributed from 298 DU for Jeju ($33.52^{\circ}N$) to 352 DU for Unggi ($42.32^{\circ}N$) in almost zonally symmetric pattern over the Korean Peninsula, with the latitudinal gradient of 6 DU $degree^{-1}$. It is apparent that seasonal variability of total ozone increases from Jeju toward Unggi. The annual mean total ozone for Seoul shows 323 DU, with the maximum of 359 DU in March and the minimum of 291 DU in October. It is found that the day to day variability in total ozone exhibits annual mean of 5.7% in increase and -5.2% in decrease. The variability as large as 38.4% in increase and 30.3% in decrease has been observed, respectively. The long-term trend analysis (e.g., WMO, 1999) of monthly total ozone data (1985~2009) merged by satellite and ground-based measurements over the Korean Peninsula shows increase of 1.27% $decade^{-1}$ to 0.80% $decade^{-1}$ from Jeju to Unggi, respectively, showing systematic decrease of the trend magnitude with latitude. This study also presents a new analysis of ozone density and trends in the vertical distribution of ozone for Seoul with data up to the end of 2009. The mean vertical distributions of ozone show that the maximum value of the ozone density is 16.5 DU $km^{-1}$ in the middle stratospheric layer between 24 km and 28 km. About 90.0% and 71.5% of total ozone are found in the troposphere and in the stratosphere between 15 and 33 km, respectively. The trend analysis reconfirms the previous results of significant positive ozone trend, of up to 5% $decade^{-1}$, in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (0~24 km), with negative trend, of up to -5% $decade^{-1}$, in the stratosphere (24~38 km). In addition, the Umkehr data show a positive trend of about 3% $decade^{-1}$ in the upper stratosphere (38~48 km).