• Title/Summary/Keyword: annual models

Search Result 543, Processing Time 0.031 seconds

Risk assessment for norovirus foodborne illness by raw oyster (Ostreidae) consumption and economic burden in Korea

  • Yoo, Yoonjeong;Oh, Hyemin;Lee, Yewon;Sung, Miseon;Hwang, Jeongeun;Zhao, Ziwei;Park, Sunho;Choi, Changsun;Yoon, Yohan
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
    • /
    • v.25 no.5
    • /
    • pp.287-297
    • /
    • 2022
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the probability of norovirus foodborne illness by raw oyster consumption. One hundred fifty-six oyster samples were collected to examine the norovirus prevalence. The oyster samples were inoculated with murine norovirus and stored at 4℃-25℃. A plaque assay determined norovirus titers. The norovirus titers were fitted with the Baranyi model to calculate shoulder period (h) and death rate (Log PFU/g/h). These kinetic parameters were fitted to a polynomial model as a function of temperature. Distribution temperature and time were surveyed, and consumption data were surveyed. A dose-response model was also searched through literature. The simulation model was prepared with these data in @RISK to estimate the probability of norovirus foodborne. One sample of 156 samples was norovirus positive. Thus, the initial contamination level was estimated by the Beta distribution (2, 156), and the level was -5.3 Log PFU/g. The developed predictive models showed that the norovirus titers decreased in oysters under the storage conditions simulated with the Uniform distribution (0.325, 1.643) for time and the Pert distribution (10, 18, 25) for temperature. Consumption ratio of raw oyster was 0.98%, and average consumption amount was 1.82 g, calculated by the Pert distribution [Pert {1.8200, 1.8200, 335.30, Truncate (0, 236.8)}]. 1F1 hypergeometric dose-response model [1 - (1 + 2.55 × 10-3 × dose)-0.086] was appropriate to evaluate dose-response. The simulation showed that the probability of norovirus foodborne illness by raw oyster consumption was 5.90 × 10-10 per person per day. The annual socioeconomic cost of consuming raw oysters contaminated with norovirus was not very high.

A Method of Machine Learning-based Defective Health Functional Food Detection System for Efficient Inspection of Imported Food (효율적 수입식품 검사를 위한 머신러닝 기반 부적합 건강기능식품 탐지 방법)

  • Lee, Kyoungsu;Bak, Yerin;Shin, Yoonjong;Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.139-159
    • /
    • 2022
  • As interest in health functional foods has increased since COVID-19, the importance of imported food safety inspections is growing. However, in contrast to the annual increase in imports of health functional foods, the budget and manpower required for inspections for import and export are reaching their limit. Hence, the purpose of this study is to propose a machine learning model that efficiently detects unsuitable food suitable for the characteristics of data possessed by government offices on imported food. First, the components of food import/export inspections data that affect the judgment of nonconformity were examined and derived variables were newly created. Second, in order to select features for the machine learning, class imbalance and nonlinearity were considered when performing exploratory analysis on imported food-related data. Third, we try to compare the performance and interpretability of each model by applying various machine learning techniques. In particular, the ensemble model was the best, and it was confirmed that the derived variables and models proposed in this study can be helpful to the system used in import/export inspections.

A Dynamic exploration of Constructivism Research based on Citespace Software in the Filed of Education (교육학 분야에서 CiteSpace에 기초한 구성주의 연구 동향 탐색)

  • Jiang, Yuxin;Song, Sun-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.22 no.5
    • /
    • pp.576-584
    • /
    • 2022
  • As an important branch of cognitive psychology, "constructivism" is called a "revolution" in contemporary educational psychology, which has a profound influence on the field of pedagogy and psychology. Based on "WOS" database, this study selects "WOS Core database" and "KCI database", uses CiteSpace visualization software as analysis tool, and makes knowledge map analysis on the research literature of "constructivism" in the field of education in recent 35 years. Analysis directions include annual analysis, network connection analysis by country(region) branch, author, institution or University, and keyword analysis. The purpose of the analysis is to grasp the subject areas, research hotspots and future trends of the research on constructivism, and to provide theoretical reference for the research on constructivism. There are three conclusions from the study. 1. Studies on the subject of constructivism have continued from the 1980s to the present. It is now in a period of steady development. 2. Countries concerned with the subject of constructivism mainly include the United States, Canada, Britain, Australia and the Netherlands. The main research institutions and authors are mainly located in these countries. 3. Currently, the keywords constructivism research focus on the clusters of "instructional strategies", and the development of science and technology is affecting individual learning. In the future, instructional strategies will become the focus of structural constructivism research. With the development of instructional technology, it is necessary to conduct research related to the development of new teaching models.

A Groundwater Potential Map for the Nakdonggang River Basin (낙동강권역의 지하수 산출 유망도 평가)

  • Soonyoung Yu;Jaehoon Jung;Jize Piao;Hee Sun Moon;Heejun Suk;Yongcheol Kim;Dong-Chan Koh;Kyung-Seok Ko;Hyoung-Chan Kim;Sang-Ho Moon;Jehyun Shin;Byoung Ohan Shim;Hanna Choi;Kyoochul Ha
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
    • /
    • v.28 no.6
    • /
    • pp.71-89
    • /
    • 2023
  • A groundwater potential map (GPM) was built for the Nakdonggang River Basin based on ten variables, including hydrogeologic unit, fault-line density, depth to groundwater, distance to surface water, lineament density, slope, stream drainage density, soil drainage, land cover, and annual rainfall. To integrate the thematic layers for GPM, the criteria were first weighted using the Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and then overlaid using the Technique for Ordering Preferences by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) model. Finally, the groundwater potential was categorized into five classes (very high (VH), high (H), moderate (M), low (L), very low (VL)) and verified by examining the specific capacity of individual wells on each class. The wells in the area categorized as VH showed the highest median specific capacity (5.2 m3/day/m), while the wells with specific capacity < 1.39 m3/day/m were distributed in the areas categorized as L or VL. The accuracy of GPM generated in the work looked acceptable, although the specific capacity data were not enough to verify GPM in the studied large watershed. To create GPMs for the determination of high-yield well locations, the resolution and reliability of thematic maps should be improved. Criterion values for groundwater potential should be established when machine learning or statistical models are used in the GPM evaluation process.

A Study of Wind Characteristics around Nuclear Power Plants Based on the Joint Distribution of the Wind Direction and Wind Speed

  • Yunjong Lee
    • Journal of Radiation Industry
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.299-307
    • /
    • 2023
  • Given that toxic substances are diffused by the various movements of the atmosphere, it is very important to evaluate the risks associated with this phenomenon. When analyzing the behavioral characteristics of these atmospheric diffusion models, the main input data are the wind speed and wind direction among the meteorological data. In particular, it is known that a certain wind direction occurs in summer and winter in Korea under the influence of westerlies and monsoons. In this study, synoptic meteorological observation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration were analyzed from January 1, 2012 to the end of August of 2022 to understand the regional wind characteristics of nuclear power plants and surrounding areas. The selected target areas consisted of 16 weather stations around the Hanbit, Kori, Wolsong, Hanul, and Saeul nuclear power plants that are currently in operation. The analysis was based on the temperature, wind direction, and wind speed data at those locations. Average, maximum, minimum, median, and mode values were analyzed using long-term annual temperature, wind speed, and wind direction data. Correlation coefficient values were also analyzed to determine the linear relationships among the temperature, wind direction, and wind speed. Among the 16 districts, Uljin had the highest wind speed. The median wind speed values for each region were lower than the average wind speed values. For regions where the average wind speed exceeds the median wind speed, Yeongju, Gochang, Gyeongju, Yeonggwang, and Gimhae were calculated as 0.69 m s-1, 0.54m s-1, 0.45m s-1, 0.4m s-1, and 0.36m s-1, respectively. The average temperature in the 16 regions was 13.52 degrees Celsius; the median temperature was 14.31 degrees and the mode temperature was 20.69 degrees. The average regional temperature standard deviation was calculated and found to be 9.83 degrees. The maximum summer temperatures were 39.7, 39.5, and 39.3 in Yeongdeok, Pohang, and Yeongcheon, respectively. The wind directions and speeds in the 16 regions were plotted as a wind rose graph, and the characteristics of the wind direction and speed of each region were investigated. It was found that there is a dominant wind direction correlated with the topographical characteristics in each region. However, the linear relationship between the wind speed and direction by region varied from 0.53 to 0.07. Through this study, by evaluating meteorological observation data on a long-term synoptic scale of ten years, regional characteristics were found.

Development of a Biophysical Rice Yield Model Using All-weather Climate Data (MODIS 전천후 기상자료 기반의 생물리학적 벼 수량 모형 개발)

  • Lee, Jihye;Seo, Bumsuk;Kang, Sinkyu
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.33 no.5_2
    • /
    • pp.721-732
    • /
    • 2017
  • With the increasing socio-economic importance of rice as a global staple food, several models have been developed for rice yield estimation by combining remote sensing data with carbon cycle modelling. In this study, we aimed to estimate rice yield in Korea using such an integrative model using satellite remote sensing data in combination with a biophysical crop growth model. Specifically, daily meteorological inputs derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution imaging Spectroradiometer) and radar satellite products were used to run a light use efficiency based crop growth model, which is based on the MODIS gross primary production (GPP) algorithm. The modelled biomass was converted to rice yield using a harvest index model. We estimated rice yield from 2003 to 2014 at the county level and evaluated the modelled yield using the official rice yield and rice straw biomass statistics of Statistics Korea (KOSTAT). The estimated rice biomass, yield, and harvest index and their spatial distributions were investigated. Annual mean rice yield at the national level showed a good agreement with the yield statistics with the yield statistics, a mean error (ME) of +0.56% and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.73%. The estimated county level yield resulted in small ME (+0.10~+2.00%) and MAE (2.10~11.62%),respectively. Compared to the county-level yield statistics, the rice yield was over estimated in the counties in Gangwon province and under estimated in the urban and coastal counties in the south of Chungcheong province. Compared to the rice straw statistics, the estimated rice biomass showed similar error patterns with the yield estimates. The subpixel heterogeneity of the 1 km MODIS FPAR(Fraction of absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation) may have attributed to these errors. In addition, the growth and harvest index models can be further developed to take account of annually varying growth conditions and growth timings.

Spatio-temporal Water Quality Variations at Various Streams of Han-River Watershed and Empirical Models of Serial Impoundment Reservoirs (한강수계 하천에서의 시공간적 수질변화 특성 및 연속적 인공댐호의 경험적 모델)

  • Jeon, Hye-Won;Choi, Ji-Woong;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.45 no.4
    • /
    • pp.378-391
    • /
    • 2012
  • The objective of this study was to determine temporal patterns and longitudinal gradients of water chemistry at eight artificial reservoirs and ten streams within the Han-River watershed along the main axis of the headwaters to the downstreams during 2009~2010. Also, we evaluated chemical relations and their variations among major trophic variables such as total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll-a (CHL-a) and determined intense summer monsoon and annual precipitation effects on algal growth using empirical regression model. Stream water quality of TN, TP, and other parameters degradated toward the downstreams, and especially was largely impacted by point-sources of wastewater disposal plants near Jungrang Stream. In contrast, summer river runoff and rainwater improved the stream water quality of TP, TN, and ionic contents, measured as conductivity (EC) in the downstream reach. Empirical linear regression models of log-transformed CHL-a against log-transformed TN, TP, and TN : TP mass ratios in five reservoirs indicated that the variation of TP accounted 33.8% ($R^2$=0.338, p<0.001, slope=0.710) in the variation of CHL and the variation of TN accounted only 21.4% ($R^2$=0.214, p<0.001) in the CHL-a. Overall, our study suggests that, primary productions, estimated as CHL-a, were more determined by ambient phosphorus loading rather than nitrogen in the lentic systems of artificial reservoirs, and the stream water quality as lotic ecosystems were more influenced by a point-source locations of tributary streams and intense seasonal rainfall rather than a presence of artificial dam reservoirs along the main axis of the watershed.

Prediction Model of Weed Population in Paddy Fields - II. Simple Prediction Method of Weed Population and Prediction Model of Weed Species (논 잡초(雜草) 발생예측(發生豫測) 모델 개발연구(開發硏究) - II. 간역(簡易) 잡초발생(雜草發生) 예측법(豫測法) 및 잡종별(雜種別) 예측(豫測)모델)

  • Lee, Han-Gyu;Lee, I.Y.;Ryu, G.H.;Lee, J.O.;Lee, E.J.
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.163-170
    • /
    • 1994
  • The experiment was conducted in 1993 to find out a simple prediction method of weeds and to make the prediction models of weeds in paddy fields. The annuals producing fine seeds were apt to emerge at sampling soil only, on the contrary the perennials and the annuals producing large seeds tended not to emerge at sampling soil due to the miss of seeds at sampling. There was no appropriate regression between a total number of weeds emerged at sampling soil and that of weeds occurred in fields. The important annual weeds occurring in fields were able to predict by the number of weeds emerged at sampling soil, but it was difficult to predict the important perennial weeds. In case of Bidens tripartita producing large seeds and Eleocharis kuroguwai producing large tubers, the prediction coefficients were high as above 1.0, and that of Echinochloa crus-galli and Sagittaria pygmaea were comparatively high as 0.175 and 0.172, respectively. However the coefficients of the other weeds were much low as below 0.08. The prediction models for 9 species were made. The model of six species including E. crus-galli, M. vaginalis, R. indica, B. tripartita, E. triandra and S. pygmaea were linear regression with high significance, however that of 3 species including C. difformis, S. juncoides and E. kuroguwai were curve regression with high significance.

  • PDF

A study on the Wonju Medical Equipment Industry Cluster (원주의료기기산업 클러스터의 형성과정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Woo-Chun;Yoon, Hyung-Ro
    • Journal of the Korean Academic Society of Industrial Cluster
    • /
    • v.1 no.1
    • /
    • pp.67-86
    • /
    • 2007
  • Wonju Medical Equipment Industry, despite of its short history, poor sales and weak manpower and so on, have shown remarkable outcomes in a relatively short period. At the end of 2007, totally 79 enterprises (only 4.6% of whole enterprises in Korea) made 10% of the nationwide production and 15% of the nationwide exports with an annual average growth rate of 66.7%, contributing domestic medical equipment industry tremendously. In addition, many leading medical equipment enterprises in various fields already moved or plan to move to Wonju, accelerating Wonju Medical Equipment Cluster. Wonju Medical Equipment Industry Cluster now enters into the growth stage, getting out of the initial business setup stage. Especially, the nomination of Wonju cluster project from the government accelerates networking (e.g. the development of the universal parts, the establishment of the mutual collaboration model among enterprises, and the mutual marketing), making a rapid growth in Wonju Medical Equipment Industry. Wonju Medical Equipment Industry Cluster revealed positive outcomes despite of the weakness in investment size and infra-structure comparing with the other medical industry cluster in the advanced country, while many domestic enterprises pursued their own growth models and thus failed to promote the international competitive power. Wonju Medical Equipment Industry has been developed rapidly. However, there are many challenging problems to support enterprises: small R&D investment and thus weak technology power, difficulties in recruiting R&D engineers, and poor marketing capabilities, financial infrastructure & policies, and network architecture. In order to develop a world-competitive medical equipment industry cluster at Wonju, the complement of infrastructures, the technology innovation, the mutual marketing, and the network expansion to support enterprises are further required. Wonju' s experiences in developing medical equipment industry so far suggest that our own flexible cluster model considering the industry structure and maturity for different regions should be developed, and specific action plans from the local and central governments based on their systematic strategies for industry development should be implemented in order to build world-competitive industry clusters in Korea.

  • PDF

Estimation and Methods Estimating Daily Food Consumption of Agrammus agrammus (노래미, Agrammus agrammus의 일간섭식량 추정법과 추정)

  • KIM Chong-Kwan;KANG Yong-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
    • /
    • v.25 no.4
    • /
    • pp.241-250
    • /
    • 1992
  • This study was covered the amount of food consumed per day as well as methods estimating the daily food consumption per fish of Agrammus agrammus in natural population to understand flow of food organisms among trophic levels in bio-community of the coastal waters, Shinsudo, Samchonpo. The estimating formulas were induced from the mathematical models that representing the diurnal fluctuation of the stomach fullness of the fish. The daily food consumption could be estimated by both feeding rates and gastric evacuation rates, but it was more reasonable method that based on gastric evacuation rates than feeding rates. The daily food consumption in wet weight per fish by gastric evacuation rates were 1.9856g/day, 3.4725g/day, 4.4418g/day, 5.8168g/day, and 7.2113g/day in the order of age groups from 0 to 4. The daily rations as percentage of body weight were $9.35\%,\;6.65\%,\;5.76\%,\;4.72\%\;and\;5.31\%$ in the order of ages. The daily food consumption was proportional to the body weight of fish, but the daily food consumption per specific body weight was reciprocal to the body weight. Annual food consumption in wet weight. per fish by gastric evacuation rates were 529.98g from the age of 0.25 to 1.0, 1,269.28g from the age of 1.0 to 2.0, 1,622.76g from the age of 2.0 to 3.0, 2,125.57g from the age of 3.0 to 4.0, 1,316.09g from the age of 4.0 to 4.5 The amount of food consumed per fish during 4.25 years, from the age of 0.25 to 4.5, was 6,863.68g in wet weight. the relationships between the daily food consumption(Dr) by gastric evacuation rates and the total length(L, cm) or the body weight(W, g) were as follows: $$Dr=0.036L^{1.702}$$ $$Dr=0.254W^{0.664}$$

  • PDF