• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.70 no.1
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• pp.7-16
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• 1985

To grasp canonical correlations, their related backgrounds in various growth factors of stem, the characteristics of stem by synthetical dispersion analysis, principal component analysis and canonical correlation analysis as optimum method were applied to Larix leptolepis. The results are as follows; 1) There were high or low correlation among all factors (height ($x_1$), clear height ($x_2$), form height ($x_3$), breast height diameter (D. B. H.: $x_4$), mid diameter ($x_5$), crown diameter ($x_6$) and stem volume ($x_7$)) except normal form factor ($x_8$). Especially stem volume showed high correlation with the D.B.H., height, mid diameter (cf. table 1). 3) (1) Canonical correlation coefficients and canonical variate between stem volume and composite variate of various height growth factors ($x_1$, $x_2$ and $x_3$) are ${\gamma}_{u1,v1}=0.82980^{**}$, $\{u_1=1.00000x_7\\v_1=1.08323x_1-0.04299x_2-0.07080x_3$. (2) Those of stem volume and composite variate of various diameter growth factors ($x_4$, $x_5$ and $x_6$) are ${\gamma}_{u1,v1}=0.98198^{**}$, $\{{u_1=1.00000x_7\\v_1=0.86433x_4+0.11996x_5+0.02917x_6$. (3) And canonical correlation between stem volume and composite variate of six factors including various heights and diameters are ${\gamma}_{u1,v1}=0.98700^{**}$, $\{^u_1=1.00000x_7\\v1=0.12948x_1+0.00291x_2+0.03076x_3+0.76707x_4+0.09107x_5+0.02576x_6$. All the cases showed the high canonical correlation. Height in the case of (1), D.B.H. in that of (2), and the D.B.H, and height in that of (3) respectively make an absolute contribution to the canonical correlation. Synthetical characteristics of each qualitative growth are largely affected by each factor. Especially in the case of (3) the influence by the D.B.H. is the most significant in the above six factors (cf. table 2). 3) Canonical correlation coefficient and canonical variate between composite variate of various height growth factors and that of the various diameter factors are ${\gamma}_{u1,v1}=0.78556^{**}$, $\{u_1=1.20569x_1-0.04444x_2-0.21696x_3\\v_1=1.09571x_4-0.14076x_5+0.05285x_6$. As shown in the above facts, only height and D.B.H. affected considerably to the canonical correlation. Thus, it was revealed that the synthetical characteristics of height growth was determined by height and those of the growth in thickness by D.B.H., respectively (cf. table 2). 4) Synthetical characteristics (1st-3rd principal component) derived from eight growth factors of stem, on the basis of 85% accumulated proportion aimed, are as follows; Ist principal component ($z_1$): $Z_1=0.40192x_1+0.23693x_2+0.37047x_3+0.41745x_4+0.41629x_5+0.33454x_60.42798x_7+0.04923x_8$, 2nd principal component ($z_2$): $z_2=-0.09306x_1-0.34707x_2+0.08372x_3-0.03239x_4+0.11152x_5+0.00012x_6+0.02407x_7+0.92185x_8$, 3rd principal component ($z_3$): $Z_3=0.19832x_1+0.68210x_2+0.35824x_3-0.22522x_4-0.20876x_5-0.42373x_6-0.15055x_7+0.26562x_8$. The first principal component ($z_1$) as a "size factor" showed the high information absorption power with 63.26% (proportion), and its principal component score is determined by stem volume, D.B.H., mid diameter and height, which have considerably high factor loading. The second principal component ($z_2$) is the "shape factor" which indicates cubic similarity of the stem and its score is formed under the absolute influence of normal form factor. The third principal component ($z_3$) is the "shape factor" which shows the degree of thickness and length of stem. These three principal components have the satisfactory information absorption power with 88.36% of the accumulated percentage. variance (cf. table 3). 5) Thus the principal component and canonical correlation analyses could be applied to the field of forest measurement, judgement of site qualities, management diagnoses for the forest management and the forest products industries, and the other fields which require the assessment of synthetical characteristics.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.1-44
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• 1969

The important results which have been obtained in the investigation can be recapitulated as follows. 1. As demostrated by the experimental results and analyses concerning their effects in the on-ground type mushroom house, the constructions in relation to the side wall and ceiling of the experimental houses showed a sufficient heat insulation on effect to protect insides of the houses from outside climatic conditions. 2. As the effect on the solar type experimental mushroom house which was constructed in a half basement has been shown by the experimental results and analyses, it has been proved to be effective for making use of solar heat. However there were found two problems to be improved for putting solar houses to practical use in the farm mushroom growing: (1) the construction of the roof and ceiling should be the same as for the on-ground type house, and (2) the solar heat generating system should be reconstructed properly. A trial solar heat generating system is shown in Fig. 40. 3. Among several ventilation systems which have been studied in the experiments, the underground earthen pipe and ceiling ventilation, and vertical side wall and ceiling ventilation systems have been proved to be most effective for natural ventilation. 4. The experimental results have shown that ventilation systems such as the vertical side wall and underground ventilation systems are suitable to put to practical use as natural ventilation systems for farm mushroom houses. These ventilation systems can remarkably improve the temperature of fresh air which is introduced into the house by heat transfers within the ventilation passages, so as to approach to the desired temperature of the house without any cooling or heating operation. For example, if it is assuming that x is the outside temperature and y is the amount of temperature adjustment made by the influence of the ventilation system, the relationships that exist between x and y can be expressed by the following regression lines. Underground iron pipe ventilation system ${\cdots}{\cdots}$ y=0.9x-12.8 Underground earthen pipe ventilation system ${\cdots}{\cdots}$y=0.96x-15.11 Vertical side wall ventilation system${\cdots}{\cdots}$ y=0.94x-17.57 5. The experimental results have shown that the relationships existing between the admitted and expelled air and the $Co_2$ concentration can be described with experimental regression lines or an exponent equation as follows: 1) If it is assumed that x is an air speed cm/sec. and y is an expelled air speed in cm/sec. in a natural ventilation system, since the y is a function of the x, the relationships that exist between x and y can be expressed by the regression lines shown below: 2) If it is assumed that x is an admitted volume of air in $m^3/hr$ and y is an expelled volume of air in $m^3/hr$ in a natural ventilation system, since the y is a function of the x, the relationships that exist between x and y can be expressed by the regression lines shown below. 3) If it is assumed that the expelled air speed in cm/sec and replacement air speed in cm/sec. at the bed surface in a natural ventilation system are shown as x and y, respectively, since the y is a function of the x, the relationships that exist between x and y can be expressed by the following regression line: G.E. (100%)- C.V. (50%) ventilation system${\cdots}$ y=0.54X+0.84 4) If it is assumed that the replacement air speed in cm/sec. at the bed surface is shown as x, and $CO_2$ concentration which is expressed by multiplying 1000 times the actual value of $CO_2$ % is shown as y, in a natural ventilation system, since the y is a function of the x the relationships that exist between x and y can be expressed by the following regression line: G.E. (100%)- C.V. (50%) ventilation system${\cdots}{\cdots}$ y=114.53-6.42x 5) If it is assumed that the expelled volume of air is shown as x and the $CO_2$ concentration which is expressed by multiplying 1000 times the actual of $CO_2$ % is shown as y in a natural ventilation system, since the y is a function of of the x, the relationships that exist between x and y can be expressed by the following exponent equation: G.E. (100%)-C.V. (50%) ventilation system${\cdots}{\cdots}$ $$y=127.18{\times}1.0093^{-X}$$ 6. The experimental results have shown that the ratios of the crass sectional area of the G.E. and C.V. vent to the total cubic capacity of the house, required for providing an adequate amount of air in a natural ventilation system, can be estimated as follows: G.E. (admitting vent of the underground ventilation)${\cdots}{\cdots}$ 0.30-0.5% (controllable) C.V. (expelling vent of the ceiling ventilation)${\cdots}{\cdots}$ 0.8-1.0% (controllable) 7. Among several heating devices which were studied in the experiments, the hot-water boilor which was modified to be fitted both as hot-water toiler and as a pressureless steam-water was found most suitable for farm mushroom growing.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.54-101
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• 1976

This study was conducted on the major factors affecting soil erosion and surface run-off. In order to investigate the processes and mechanisms of soil erosion on denuded forest-land in Korea, and to systematize the magnitudes of influences and interactions between individual factors, the five major factors adopted in these experiments are soil textures (coarse sand and clay loam), slope steepness ($10^{\circ}$, $20^{\circ}$, $30^{\circ}$ and $40^{\circ}$), rainfall intensities (50, 75 and 100mm/hr), slope mulching methods (bare, coarse straw-mat mulching, grass mulching and anti-erosion liquid mulching) and vegetation densities (sparse, moderate and dense). The processes and mechanisms of soil erosion, and the effects of mulchings on soil erosion as well as surface run-off rates were studied algebraically with four parts of laboratory experiments under the simulated rainfall and another part of field experiment under the natural rainfall. The results in this study are summarized as follows: 1. Experiment factors and surface run-off rates The surface run-off rates under the natural rainfall were resulted about 24.7~28.7% from the bare slopes, about 14.0~16.4% from the straw-mat mulched slopes, about 7.9~9.1% from the liquid mulched slopes, and about 5.6~7.2% from the grass mulched slopes respectively. The surface run-off rates under the simulated rainfall differed greatly according to the rainfall intensity and the mulching method. 2. Magnitudes of influences and interactions of the individual factor on the surface run-off rates. The experimental analyses on the major factors(soils, slopes, rainfalls, mulchings and vegetations) affecting the rates of surface run-off, show that the mean differences of surface run-off rate are significant at 5% level between the soil texture factors, among the slope steepness factors, among the rainfall intensity factors, among the mulching method factors, and among the vegetation density factors respectively. The interactions among the individual factor have a great influence(significant at 1% level) upon the rate of surface run-off, except for the interactions of the factors between soils and slopes; between slopes and vegetations; among soils, slopes and rainfalls; and among soils, slopes and mulchings respectively. On the bare slopes under the simulated rainfall, the magnitude of influences of three factors(soils, slopes and rainfalls) affecting the rate of surface run-off is in the order of the factor of rainfalls, soils and slopes. The magnitude of influences of three factors (soils, rainfalls and mulchings) affecting the rate of surface run-off, on the mulched slopes under the simulated rainfall is in the order of the factor of mulchings, rainfalls and soils and that of influences of the factor of soils, slopes and mulchings is in the order of the factor of mulchings, soils and slopes. On the vegetation growing slopes under the simulated rainfall, the magnitude of influences of three factors (soils, slopes and vegetations) affecting the rate of surface run-off is in the order of the factor of vegetations, soils and slopes. In the same condition of treatments on the field experiment under the natural rainfall, the order of magnitude of influences affecting the rate of surface run-off is the factor of mulchings, soils and slopes. 3. Experiment factors and soil losses The soil losses of the experiment plots differed according to the factors of soil texture, slope steepness, rainfall intensity and mulching method. The soil losses from the coarse soil were increased about 1.1~1.3 times as compared with that of fine soil under the natural rainfall, while the soil losses from the fine soil were increased about 1.2~1.3 times compared with that of coarse soil under the simulated rainfall. The equation of $E=aS^b$ (a, b are constant) between the slope steepness (log S) and soil losses (log E) under the simulated rainfall were developed. The equation of $E=aI^b$ (a, b are constant) between the rainfall intensity (log I) and soil losses (log E) were developed, and b values have a decreasing tendency according to the increase of the slope steepness and rainfall intensity. The soil losses under the natural rainfall were appeared about 38~41% from the coarse straw-mat mulched slopes, about 20~22% from the liquid mulched slopes, about 14~15% from the grass mulched slopes as compared with that of the bare slopes respectively. The soil loss from the vegetation plots showed about 7.1~16.4 times from the sparse plot, about 10.0~17.9 times from the moderate plot and about 11.1~28.1 times from the dense plot as compared with that of the bare slopes. 4. Magnitudes of influences and interactions of the individual factor on the soil erosion. The experimental analyses on the major factors(soils, slopes, rainfalls, mulchings and vegetations) affecting the soil erosion, show that the mean differences of soil losses are highly significant between the soil texture factors, among the slope steepness factors, among the rainfall intensity factors, among the mulching method factors and among the vegetation density factors respectively. The interactions among the individual factor have mostly great influences upon the soil erosion. The magnitude of influences of three factors (soils, slopes and rainfalls) affecting the soil erosion on the bare slopes under the simulated rainfall is in order of the factor of rainfalls, soils and slopes. On the mulched slopes under the simulated rainfall, the magnitude order of influences of three factors(soils, rainfalls and mulchings) affecting the soil erosion is the factor of mulchings, rainfalls and soils, and the order of influences of factor of soils, slopes and mulchings is the factor of mulchings, soils and slopes. On the vegetation growing slopes under the simulated rainfall, the magnitude of influences of three factors (soils, slopes and vegetations) affecting the soil erosion is in the order of the factor of slopes. vegetations and soils. In the same condition of treatments on the field experiment under the natural rainfall, the order of magnitude of influences of three factors (soils, slopes and mulchings) affecting the soil erosion is the factor of mulchings, of slopes and of soils.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to characterize the hydrogeochemical characteristics of hot spring waters and to interpret the source of noble gases and the geochemical environment of the hot spring waters distributed along the eastern area of the Korean peninsula. For this purpose, We carried out the chemical, stable isotopic and noble gas isotopic analyses for eleven hot spring water and fourteen hot spring gas samples collected from six hot spring sites. The hot spring waters except the Osaek hot spring water show the pH range of 7.0 to 9.1. However, the Osaek $CO_2$-rich hot spring water shows a weak acid of pH 5.7. The temperature of hot spring waters in the study area ranges from $25.7^{\circ}C$ to $68.3^{\circ}C$. Electrical conductivity of hot spring waters varies widely from 202 to $7,130{\mu}S/cm$. High electrical conductivity (av., $3,890{\mu}S/sm$) by high Na and Cl contents of the Haeundae and the Dongrae hot spring waters indicates that the hot spring waters were mixed with seawater in the subsurface thermal system. The type of hot springs in the viewpoint of dissolved components can be grouped into three types: (1) alkaline Na-$HCO_3$ type including sulfur gas of the Osaek, Baekam, Dukgu and Chuksan hot springs, and (2) saline Na-Cl type of the Haeundae and Dongrae hot springs, and (3) weak acid $CO_2$-rich Na-$HCO_3$ type of Osaek hot spring. Tritium ratios of the Haeundae and the Dongrae hot springs indicate different residence time in their aquifers of older water of $0.0{\sim}0.3$ TU and younger water of $5.9{\sim}8.8$ TU. The ${\delta}^{18}O$ and ${\delta}D$ values of hot spring waters indicate that they originate from the meteoric water, and that the values also reflect a latitude effect according to their locations. $^3He/^4He$ ratios of the hot spring waters except Osaek $CO_2$-rich hot spring water range from $0.1{\times}10^{-6}$ to $1.1{\times}10^{-6}$ which are plotted above the mixing line between air and crustal components. It means that the He gas in hot spring waters was originated mainly from atmosphere and crust sources, and partly from mantle sources. The Osaek $CO_2$-rich hot spring water shows $3.3{\times}10^{-6}$ in $^3He/^4He$ ratio that is 2.4 times higher than those of atmosphere. It provides clearly a helium source from the deep mantle. $^{40}Ar/^{36}Ar$ ratios of hot spring water are in the range of an atmosphere source.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.68-92
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• 1995

Recentry the structure of the retail trade have been chanaed with its environmantal changes. Some studies may be necessary on the changing process of environment and fundamental structure analyses of the retail trade. This study analyzes the location of retail trades, inhabitants' behavior in retail tredes and their desirable utilization scheme of them in Kwangju-si. Some study methods, contents and coming-out results are as follows: 1. Retail trades can be classified into independent stores, chain-stores (supermarket, voluntary chain and frenchiise system and convenience store), department stores, cooperative associations, traditional, markets mail-order marketing, automatic vending and others by service levels, selling-items, prices, managements, methods of retailing and store or nonstore type. 2. In Kwangju, the environment of retail trades is related to the consumers of population structure: chanes in consumers pattern, trends toward agings and nuclear family, increase of leisur: time and female advances to society. Rapid structural shift in retail trade has also been occurred due to these social changes. Traditionl and premodern markets until 1970s altere to supermarkets or department stores in 1980s, and various types, large enterprises and foreign capitals came into being in 1990s. 3. The locational characteristics of retail trades are resulted from the spatial analysis of the total population distribution, and from the calculation of segregation index in the light of potential demand. The densely-populated areas occurs in newly-built apartment housing complex which is distributed with a ring-shaped pattern around the old urban core. The numbers and rates of the aged over sixty in Kwangsan-gu and the circumference area of Mt.Moodeung, are larger and higher where rural elements are remarkable. A relation between population distribution and retail trade are analysed by the index of population per shop. The index of the population number per shop is lower in urban center, as a whole, being more convenient for consumers. In newly-formed apartment complex areas, on the other, the index more than 1,000 per shop, meeting not the demands for consumers. Because both the younger and the aged are numerous in these areas, the retail trade pattern pertinent to both are needed. Urban fringes including Kwangsan-gu and the vicinity of Mt.Moodeung have some problems owing to the most of population number per shop (more than 1, 500) and the most extensive as well. 4. The regional characteristic of retail trade is analyzed through the location quotient of shops by locational patterns and centerality index. Chungkum-dong is the highest-order central place in CBD. It is the core of retail trades, which has higher-ordered specialty store including three big department stores, supermarkets and large stores. Taegum-dong, Chungsu-dong, Taeui-dong, and Numun-dong that are neiahbored to Chungkum-dong fall on the second group. They have a central commercial section where large chain stores, specialty shopping streets, narrow-line retailing shops (furniture, amusement service, and gallary), supermarkets and daily markets are located. The third group is formed on the axis of state roads linking to Naju-kun, Changseong-kun, Tamyang-kun, Hwasun-kun and forme-Songjeong-eup. It is related to newly, rising apartment housing complex along a trunk road, and characterized by markets and specialty stores. The fourth group has neibourhood-shopping centers including older residential area and Songjeong-eup area with independent stores and supermarkets as main retailing functions. The last group contains inner residential area and outer part of a city including Songjeong-eup. Outer part of miscellaneous shops being occasionally found is rural rather than urban (Fig. 7). 5. The residents' behaviors using retail trade are analyzed by factors of goods and facilities. Department stores are very high level in preference for higher-order shopping-goods such as clothes for full dress in view of both diversity and quality of goods(28.9%). But they have severe traffic congestions, and high competitions for market ranges caused by their sma . 64.0% of respondents make combined purpose trips together with banking and shopping. 6. For more efficiency of retail-trading, it is necessary to induce spatial distribution policy with regard to opportunity frequency of goods selection by central place, frontier regions and age groups. Also we must consider to analyze competition among different types of retail trade and analyze the consumption behaviors of working females and younger-aged groups, in aspects of time and space. Service improvement and the rationalization of management should be accomplished in such as cooperative location (situation) must be under consideration in relations to other functions such as finance, leisure & sports, and culture centers. Various service systems such as installment, credit card and peremium ticket, new used by enterprises, must also be carried service improvement. The rationalization and professionalization in for the commercial goods are bsically requested.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.75 no.1
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• pp.1-18
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• 1986

This study was initiated to estimate productivity of Quercus variabilis stand. However the practical objective of this study was to provide some information to establish the basis of selecting the suitable site for Quercus variabilis. The productivity measured in terms of DBH, height, basal area and stem volume was hypothesized, respectively, to be a function of a group of factors. This study considered 32 factors, 20 of which were related to the forest environmental factors such as tree age, latitude, percent slope, etc. and the rest of which were related to soil factors such as soil moisture, total nitrogen, available $P_2O_5$, etc. The data on 4 productivity measurements of Quercus variabilis growth and related factors cited were collected from 99 sample plots in Kyeongbook and chungbook provinces. Some factors considered were, in nature, discrete variables and the others continuous variables. Each kind of factor was classified into 3 or 4 categories and total numbers of such categories were eventually amounted to 110. Then each category was treated as an independent variable. This is amounted to saying that individual variable was treated a dummy variable and assigned a value 1 or 0. However the first category of each factor was deleted from the normal equation for statistical consideration. First of all, each of 4 productivity measurements of Quercus variabilis growth was regressed and, at the same time, those 110 categories. Secondly, the partial correlation coefficients were measured between each pair of 4 productivity measurements and 32 individual foctors. Finally, the relative scores were estimated in order to derive the category ranges. The result of these statistical analyses could be summarized as follows: 1) Growth measurement in terms of height seems to be a more significant criterion for estimation of productivity of Quercus variabilis. 2) Productivity of forest on stocked land may better be estimated in terms of forest environmental factors, on the other hand, that of unstocked land may be estimated in terms of physio-chemical factors of soil. 3) The factors that a strongly positive relation to all growth factors of tree are age group, effective soil, soil moisture, etc. This implies that these factors might effectively be used for criteria for selecting the suitable site for Quercus variabilis. 4) Parent rock, latitude, total nitrogen, age group, effective soil depth, soil moisture, organic matter, etc., had more significant category range for tree growth. Therefore, the suitable site for Quercus variabilis may be selected, based on this information. In conclusion, the above results obtained by the multivariable analysis can be not only the important criteria for estimating the growth of Quercus variabilis but also the useful guidance for selecting the suitable sites and performing the rational of Quercus variabilis forest.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.48
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• pp.9-33
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• 2016

The purpose of the present study was to find out cause-and-effect relationship between job requirements and job resources, with job burnout as a mediator variable, and the effects of these variables on organizational effectiveness. The population in the present study was private security guards employed by 13 private security companies in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do areas, and a survey was conducted on 500 security guards selected using purposive sampling technique. Out of 460 questionnaires distributed, 429 responses, excluding 31 outliers or insincere responses, were used for data analysis. For analysis, data were coded and entered into SPSS 18.0 and AMOS 18.0, which were used to analyze the data. Descriptive analyses were performed to find out sociodemographic characteristics of the respondents. The exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were used to test the validity of the measurement tool, and the Cronbach's Alpha coefficients were calculated to test the reliability. To find out the significance of relationships among variables, Pearson's correlation analysis was performed. Covariance Structure Analysis (CSA) was performed to test the relationship among latent factors of a model for job requirements, job resources, job burnout, and organizational effectiveness of the private security guards, and the fitness of the model analyzed with CSA was determined by the goodness-of-fit index ($x^2$, df, p, RMR, GFI, CFI, TLI, RMSEA). The level of significance was set at .05, and the following results were obtained. First, even though the effect of job requirements on job burnout was not statistically significant, it had a positive influence overall, and this result can be considered such that the higher the perception of job requirements by the member of the organization, the higher the perception of job burnout. Second, the influence of job resources on job burnout was negative, which can be considered that the higher the perception of job resources, the lower the perception of job burnout. Third, even though the influence of job requirements on organizational effectiveness was statistically nonsignificant, it had a negative influence overall, and this result can be considered that the higher the perception of job requirements, the lower the perception of organizational effectiveness. Fourth, job resources had a positive influence on organizational effectiveness, and it can be considered that the higher the perception of job resources, the higher the perception of organizational effectiveness. Fifth, the results of the analysis between job burnout and organizational effectiveness revealed that, even though the influence of job burnout on organizational effectiveness was statistically nonsignificant, it had partial negative influences on sublevels of organizational effectiveness, and this may suggest that the higher the perception of job burnout by the organization members, the lower the organizational effectiveness. Sixth, the analysis of mediating role in the relationship between job requirements and organizational effectiveness, job burnout was taking partial mediating role between job requirements and organizational effectiveness. These results suggest that reducing job burnout by managing job requirements, organizational effectiveness that leads to job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and turnover intention can be maximized. Seventh, the analysis of mediating role in the relationship among job requirements, job resources, and organizational effectiveness, job burnout was assuming a partial mediating role in the relationships among job requirements, job resources, and organizational effectiveness. These results suggest that organizational effectiveness can be maximized by either lowering job requirements or burnout management through reorganizing job resources.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.174-189
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• 2015

The objective of this study was to reconstruct spatial information using the results of the investigation and evaluation of the health of the living organisms, habitat, and water quality at the investigation points for the aquatic ecosystem health of the Nakdong River basin, to support the rational decision making of the aquatic ecosystem preservation and restoration policies of the Nakdong River basin using spatial analysis techniques, and to present efficient management methods. To analyze the aquatic ecosystem health of the Nakdong River basin, punctiform data were constructed based on the position information of each point with the aquatic ecosystem health investigation and evaluation results of 250 investigation sections. To apply the spatial analysis technique, the data need to be reconstructed into areal data. For this purpose, spatial influence and trends were analyzed using the Kriging interpolation(ArcGIS 10.1, Geostatistical Analysis), and were reconstructed into areal data. To analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of the Nakdong River basin health based on these analytical results, hotspot(Getis-Ord Gi, $G^*_i$), LISA(Local Indicator of Spatial Association), and standard deviational ellipse analyses were used. The hotspot analysis results showed that the hotspot basins of the biotic indices(TDI, BMI, FAI) were the Andong Dam upstream, Wangpicheon, and the Imha Dam basin, and that the health grades of their biotic indices were good. The coldspot basins were Nakdong River Namhae, the Nakdong River mouth, and the Suyeong River basin. The LISA analysis results showed that the exceptional areas were Gahwacheon, the Hapcheon Dam, and the Yeong River upstream basin. These areas had high bio-health indices, but their surrounding basins were low and required management for aquatic ecosystem health. The hotspot basins of the physicochemical factor(BOD) were the Nakdong River downstream basin, Suyeong River, Hoeya River, and the Nakdong River Namhae basin, whereas the coldspot basins were the upstream basins of the Nakdong River tributaries, including Andong Dam, Imha Dam, and Yeong River. The hotspots of the habitat and riverside environment factor(HRI) were different from the hotspots and coldspots of each factor in the LISA analysis results. In general, the habitat and riverside environment of the Nakdong River mainstream and tributaries, including the Nakdong river upstream, Andong Dam, Imha Dam, and the Hapcheon Dam basin, had good health. The coldspot basins of the habitat and riverside environment also showed low health indices of the biotic indices and physicochemical factors, thus requiring management of the habitat and riverside environment. As a result of the time-series analysis with a standard deviation ellipsoid, the areas with good aquatic ecosystem health of the organisms, habitat, and riverside environment showed a tendency to move northward, and the BOD results showed different directions and concentrations by the year of investigation. These aquatic ecosystem health analysis results can provide not only the health management information for each investigation spot but also information for managing the aquatic ecosystem in the catchment unit for the working research staff as well as for the water environment researchers in the future, based on spatial information.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.151-166
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• 1991

In this paper, a simple game-theoretic entry deterrence model is developed that integrates both limit pricing and predatory pricing. While there have been extensive studies which have dealt with predation and limit pricing separately, no study so far has analyzed these closely related practices in a unified framework. Treating each practice as if it were an independent phenomenon is, of course, an analytical necessity to abstract from complex realities. However, welfare analysis based on such a model may give misleading policy implications. By analyzing limit and predatory pricing within a single framework, this paper attempts to shed some light on the effects of interactions between these two frequently cited tactics of entry deterrence. Another distinctive feature of the paper is that limit and predatory pricing emerge, in equilibrium, as rational, profit maximizing strategies in the model. Until recently, the only conclusion from formal analyses of predatory pricing was that predation is unlikely to take place if every economic agent is assumed to be rational. This conclusion rests upon the argument that predation is costly; that is, it inflicts more losses upon the predator than upon the rival producer, and, therefore, is unlikely to succeed in driving out the rival, who understands that the price cutting, if it ever takes place, must be temporary. Recently several attempts have been made to overcome this modelling difficulty by Kreps and Wilson, Milgram and Roberts, Benoit, Fudenberg and Tirole, and Roberts. With the exception of Roberts, however, these studies, though successful in preserving the rationality of players, still share one serious weakness in that they resort to ad hoc, external constraints in order to generate profit maximizing predation. The present paper uses a highly stylized model of Cournot duopoly and derives the equilibrium predatory strategy without invoking external constraints except the assumption of asymmetrically distributed information. The underlying intuition behind the model can be summarized as follows. Imagine a firm that is considering entry into a monopolist's market but is uncertain about the incumbent firm's cost structure. If the monopolist has low cost, the rival would rather not enter because it would be difficult to compete with an efficient, low-cost firm. If the monopolist has high costs, however, the rival will definitely enter the market because it can make positive profits. In this situation, if the incumbent firm unwittingly produces its monopoly output, the entrant can infer the nature of the monopolist's cost by observing the monopolist's price. Knowing this, the high cost monopolist increases its output level up to what would have been produced by a low cost firm in an effort to conceal its cost condition. This constitutes limit pricing. The same logic applies when there is a rival competitor in the market. Producing a high cost duopoly output is self-revealing and thus to be avoided. Therefore, the firm chooses to produce the low cost duopoly output, consequently inflicting losses to the entrant or rival producer, thus acting in a predatory manner. The policy implications of the analysis are rather mixed. Contrary to the widely accepted hypothesis that predation is, at best, a negative sum game, and thus, a strategy that is unlikely to be played from the outset, this paper concludes that predation can be real occurence by showing that it can arise as an effective profit maximizing strategy. This conclusion alone may imply that the government can play a role in increasing the consumer welfare, say, by banning predation or limit pricing. However, the problem is that it is rather difficult to ascribe any welfare losses to these kinds of entry deterring practices. This difficulty arises from the fact that if the same practices have been adopted by a low cost firm, they could not be called entry-deterring. Moreover, the high cost incumbent in the model is doing exactly what the low cost firm would have done to keep the market to itself. All in all, this paper suggests that a government injunction of limit and predatory pricing should be applied with great care, evaluating each case on its own basis. Hasty generalization may work to the detriment, rather than the enhancement of consumer welfare.