• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.51-59
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• 2019

After Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident, the need for implementation of diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) became evident. However, to ensure the effectiveness of the safety strategy, it is essential to quantify the uncertainties associated with the station blackout (SBO) scenario as well as the operator actions. In this paper, a systems engineering approach for uncertainty analysis (UA) of a SBO scenario in advanced pressurized water reactor is performed. MARS-KS is used as a best estimate thermal-hydraulic code and is loosely-coupled with Dakota software which is employed to develop the uncertainty quantification framework. Furthermore, the systems engineering approach is adopted to identify the requirements, functions and physical architecture, and to develop the verification and validation plan. For the preliminary analysis, 13 uncertainty parameters are propagated through the model to evaluate the stability and convergence of the framework. The developed framework will ultimately be used to quantify the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties associated with an extended SBO accident scenario and assess the coping capability of APR1400 and the effectiveness of the implemented FLEX strategies.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.327-348
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• 2008

A risk-informed regulatory approach implies that risk insights be used as supplement of deterministic information for safety decision-making purposes. In this view, the use of risk assessment techniques is expected to lead to improved safety and a more rational allocation of the limited resources available. On the other hand, it is recognized that uncertainties affect both the deterministic safety analyses and the risk assessments. In order for the risk-informed decision making process to be effective, the adequate representation and treatment of such uncertainties is mandatory. In this paper, the risk-informed regulatory framework is considered under the focus of the uncertainty issue. Traditionally, probability theory has provided the language and mathematics for the representation and treatment of uncertainty. More recently, other mathematical structures have been introduced. In particular, the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is here illustrated as a generalized framework encompassing probability theory and possibility theory. The special case of probability theory is only addressed as term of comparison, given that it is a well known subject. On the other hand, the special case of possibility theory is amply illustrated. An example of the combination of probability and possibility for treating the uncertainty in the parameters of an event tree is illustrated.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.3A
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• pp.181-188
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• 2009

This study presented the basic data for determining reasonable construction method and evaluating the structural safety of suspension bridges. The analytical program was developed to conduct initial shape and natural frequency analysis, construction stage analysis and reliability analysis considering construction sequences. This program was based on analysis models of suspension bridges and reliability theories used in the previous study. A construction method was established considering various construction variables such as construction order and construction direction of girder and synchronized construction of main and side span etc. The dynamic construction analysis by a construction scheme was conducted with the developed program. Benefits of the characteristic analysis by the construction scheme was presented estimating structural response of critical members respectively. Structural reliability analysis by construction stage was conducted considering aleatory uncertainties. The safety of suspension bridges by established construction method was quantitatively estimated using reliability index and failure probability. Analytical results were re-estimated considering epistemic uncertainties, and critical percentile distributions of risk at the construction stage were presented using the frequency histogram.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.89-110
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• 2012

This study was intended to efficiently perform the probabilistic optimal safety assessment of steel cable-stayed bridges (SCS bridges) using stochastic finite element analysis (SFEA) and expected life-cycle cost (LCC) concept. To that end, advanced probabilistic finite element algorithm (APFEA) which enables to execute the static and dynamic SFEA considering aleatory uncertainties contained in random variable was developed. APFEA is the useful analytical means enabling to conduct the reliability assessment (RA) in a systematic way by considering the result of SFEA based on linearity and nonlinearity of before or after introducing initial tensile force. The appropriateness of APFEA was verified in such a way of comparing the result of SFEA and that of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The probabilistic method was set taking into account of analytical parameters. The dynamic response characteristic by probabilistic method was evaluated using ASFEA, and RA was carried out using analysis results, thereby quantitatively calculating the probabilistic safety. The optimal design was determined based on the expected LCC according to the results of SFEA and RA of alternative designs. Moreover, given the potential epistemic uncertainty contained in safety index, failure probability and minimum LCC, the sensitivity analysis was conducted and as a result, a critical distribution phase was illustrated using a cumulative-percentile.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.94-98
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• 2014

This study was intend to develop the optimal design method of suspension bridge by the reliability analysis based on minimization of life cycle cost(LCC). The reliability analysis was performed considering aleatory uncertainties included in the result of numerical analysis. The optimal design was estimated based on life-cycle cost analysis depending on the result of reliability analysis. As the effect of epistemic uncertainty, the safety index (beta), failure probability (pf) and minimum life cycle cost were random variables. The high-level distributions were generated, from which the critical percentile values were obtained for a conservative bridge design through sensitivity assessment.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.27-37
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• 2020

The Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011 revealed some vulnerabilities of existing Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) under extended Station Blackout (SBO) accident conditions. One of the key Severe Accident Management (SAM) strategies developed post Fukushima accident is the In-Vessel Retention (IVR) Strategy which aims to retain the structural integrity of the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD3.4 is selected to predict the thermal-hydraulic response of APR1400 undergoing an extended SBO. To assess the effectiveness of the IVR strategy, it is essential to quantify the underlying uncertainties. In this work, both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties are considered to identify the success window of the IVR strategy. A set of in-vessel relevant phenomena were identified based on Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRT) developed for severe accidents and propagated through the thermal-hydraulic model using Wilk's sampling method. For this work, a Systems Engineering (SE) approach is applied to facilitate the development process of assessing the reliability and robustness of the APR1400 IVR strategy. Specifically, the Kossiakoff SE method is used to identify the requirements, functions and physical architecture, and to develop a design verification and validation plan. Using the SE approach provides a systematic tool to successfully achieve the research goal by linking each requirement to a verification or validation test with predefined success criteria at each stage of the model development. The developed model identified the conditions necessary for successful implementation of the IVR strategy which maintains the vessel integrity and prevents a melt-through.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.78 no.3
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• pp.351-368
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• 2021

This paper, by applying a reliability-based framework, develops seismic vulnerability macrozonation maps for Tehran, the capital and one of the most earthquake-vulnerable city of Iran. Seismic performance assessment of 3-, 4- and 5-story steel moment resisting frames (SMRFs), designed according to ASCE/SEI 41-17 and Iranian Code of Practice for Seismic Resistant Design of Buildings (2800 Standard), is investigated in terms of overall maximum inter-story drift ratio (MIDR) and unit repair cost ratio which is hereafter known as "damage ratio". To this end, Tehran city is first meshed into a network of 66 points to numerically locate low- to mid-rise SMRFs. Active faults around Tehran are next modeled explicitly. Two different combination of faults, based on available seismological data, are then developed to explore the impact of choosing a proper seismic scenario. In addition, soil effect is exclusively addressed. After building analytical models, reliability methods in combination with structure-specific probabilistic models are applied to predict demand and damage ratio of structures in a cost-effective paradigm. Due to capability of proposed methodology incorporating both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties explicitly, this framework which is centered on the regional demand and damage ratio estimation via structure-specific characteristics can efficiently pave the way for decision makers to find the most vulnerable area in a regional scale. This technical basis can also be adapted to any other structures which the demand and/or damage ratio prediction models are developed.