• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.137-143
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• 2018

Korea's air passenger traffic has been growing steadily. In this paper, we propose a forecasting model of air passenger demand to ascertain the growth trend of air passenger transportation performance in Korea. We conducted a simulation based on System Dynamics with the demand as a dependent variable, and international oil prices, GDP and exchange rates as exogenous variables. The accuracy of the model was verified using MAPE and $R^2$, and the proposed prediction model was verified as an accurate prediction model. As a result of the demand forecast, it is predicted that the air passenger demand in Korea will continue to grow, and the share of low cost carriers will increase sharply. The addition of the Korean transportation performance of foreign carriers in Korea and the transportation performance of Korean passengers due to the alliance of airlines will provide a more accurate forecast of passenger demand.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.57-74
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• 1991

Deregulation privatization regionalism and globalization are the specific examples of the recent trends in the world air transport market. As encouraged by the international trends and the domestic policy of promoting market mechanism Korean has been driving a two-airline policy since 1989. But due to the absence of experience and philosophy about the airline co-mpetition both Korean government and the two airlines have been criticized for failing to set fair-competition rules and for struggling to secure air service rights regardless of national interest. Therefore this study shows the costs and benefits of a two-airline policy in a small count-ry reviews the empirical studies about the cost structure of American and Canadian airlines and analyzes the economic consequences of allocating air service rights between two airlines. The policy recommendations are (1) removing government restrictions and expanding ai-rport facilities to develop the domestic market (2) retaining the two-airline policy in the in-ternational market (3) increasing traffic density rather than expanding network for the small airline (4) improving comparative advantage through a global alliance and a technological innovation for the big airline and (5) building an official committee for co-ordinating the two airlines' interests.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.109-142
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• 2005

This paper aims to study international political orders and aviational orders since the second World War, to investigate the influences between the two orders, to connect them with the air transportation service agreement between Korea and USA, and to prospect international aviation orders in the future. The first international aviation order after the second World War is built up by international public goods under hegemonic stability theory in the realistic international order. Second order is a kind of cooperation system through the international institutions under the neo-liberalistic international order from the late of 1970s. Third order is the multiple cooperation through the shared epistemology, understanding, and knowledge under the international social constructivism from the 1990s. This paper prospects that international aviation order in the future will be developed through the multiple channels for the civilian users' conveniences and the openness for the users.

• Korean Business Review
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.137-170
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• 2008

This study is presenting the logistics strategy in the international logistics markets which makes competition and corporation among north-east Asian countries to establishing the multi-pass Eurasian railroads. The countries located in north-east area of Eurasia like China, Japan, Russia and Korea are paying higher costs and disutility to the transportations and communications due to repeated conflicts and confrontations causes from the politic problems. They are being used surface transportation for most of all logistics between Europe and Asia except special merchandises because of characteristic of cargo to be air, the Silk Road remains vestige only which was main logistic passage to this area since BC. So far the Trans-Siberian Railway is being used by Russia mostly as north of Eurasian transport because of difficulties of service. The Trans-China Railway built in 1992 is not accomplishing as a international logistic passages. It is expected to take a long lead time because of characteristic of resource development and poor logistic infrastructure to the countries like Uzbekistan, double landlocked country, Mongolia and Azerbaijan, the countries do not be adjacent to the sea, even they have great economic jump-up plans through the development of their own resources. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO) start to sail officially in 2001 is constructed with China, Russia, Tadzhikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as regular members of 6 countries and Mongolia, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran as observers 5 countries. It is started as a military alliance to protect terror, but now, it is expended to cooperate with the traffic, transportation, trade and share of energies. The Russia is doing their best to activate TSR as a government target to developnorth area equivalently, and economic develop of far-east Siberia. And also it is agreed provisionally to improve and repair of rail road between Nahjin and Hassan to connect TSR and TKR( Trans-Korea Railroad) by Russia, North Korea and South Korea with Russian's aggressive efforts. The development plan of this area is over lapped with GTI(Greater Tumen Initiative) promoted by UNDP, and is a cooperated project by 5 countries of South Korea, Mongolia, China, Russia and North Korea, subject to review the appropriation of energy, tour, environment, rail road connection between Mongolia and China and establishing a ferry route to north-east Asia. It is Japanese situation to pay attention to Russia and China even they have been supplying large-scope of infrastructure in Mongol area without any charges, target to get East Asia Main Rail Road to connect Mongolia and Zalubino of Russia. In case of the program for the Denuclearization of North Korea is not creeping, it will be accelerated to connect the TKR and TSR, TKR and TCR by somehow attending United States, including developing program promoted by UN ESCAP. As the result, Korean peninsular will continue the central role of competition and cooperation as in the past, now and future of north-east Asia, as of geographical-economics and geographical-politics whether it is requested or not wanted by neighbor countries.