• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.129-134
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• 1990

Exponential smoothing methods have enjoyed a long history of successful applications and have been used in forecasting for many years. However, it has been long known that one of the deficiencies of the method is an inability to respond quickly to interventions to interruptions, or to large changes in level of the underlying process. An exponential smoothing method adaptive to repeated random level changes is proposed using a change-detection statistic derived from a simple dynamic linear model. The results are compared with Trigg and Leach's and the exponential smoothing methods.

• IE interfaces
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.343-349
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• 2005

This study presents the empirical results of comparing several demand forecasting methods for Supply Chain Management(SCM). Adaptive exponential smoothing using change detection statistics (Jun) is compared with Trigg and Leach's adaptive methods and SAS time series forecasting systems using weekly SCM demand data. The results show that Jun's method is superior to others in terms of one-step-ahead forecast error and eight-step-ahead forecast error. Based on the results, we conclude that the forecasting performance of SCM solution can be improved by the proposed adaptive forecasting method.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2008.10a
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• pp.123-123
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• 2008

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.165-168
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• 2006

Exponential smoothing methods do not adapt well to unexpected changes in underlying process. Over the past few decades a number of adaptive smoothing models have been proposed which allow for the continuous adjustment of the smoothing constant value in order to provide a much earlier detection of unexpected changes. However, most of previous studies presented ad hoc procedure of adaptive forecasting without any theoretical background. In this paper, we propose a detection-adaptation procedure applied to simple and Holt's linear method. We derive level and slope change detection statistics based on Bayesian statistical theory and present distribution of the statistics by simulation method. The proposed procedure is compared with previous adaptive forecasting models using simulated data and economic time series data.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.658-663
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• 2005

This study presents the empirical results of comparing several demand forecasting methods for Supply Chain Management(SCM). Adaptive exponential smoothing using change detection statistics (Jun) is compared with Trigg and Leach's adaptive methods and SAS time series forecasting systems using weekly SCM demand data. The results show that Jun's method is superior to others in terms of one-step-ahead forecast error and eight-step-ahead forecast error. Based on the results, we conclude that the forecasting performance of SCM solution can be improved by the proposed adaptive forecasting method.

• Journal of Computing Science and Engineering
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.17-24
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• 2014

In this paper, we propose a new implementation of a failure detector. The implementation uses a dual model of heartbeat and interaction. First, the heartbeat model is adopted to shorten the detection time, if the detection process does not receive the heartbeat message in the expected time. The interaction model is then used to check the process further. The expected time is calculated using the exponential smoothing method. Exponential smoothing can be used to estimate the next arrival time not only in the random data, but also in the data of linear trends. It is proven that the new detector in the paper can eventually be a perfect detector.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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• v.52 no.11
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• pp.55-65
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• 2015

Contrast enhancement methods for a single image applied to videos may cause flickering artifacts because these methods do not consider continuity of videos. On the other hands, methods considering the continuity of videos can reduce flickering artifacts but it may cause unnecessary fade-in/out artifacts when the intensity of videos changes abruptly. In this paper, we propose a robust method of video contrast enhancement for sudden illumination changes. The proposed method enhances each frame by Fast Gray-Level Grouping(FGLG) and considers the continuity of videos by an exponential smoothing filter. The proposed method calculates the smoothing factor of an exponential smoothing filter using a sigmoid function and applies to each frame to reduce unnecessary fade-in/out effects. In the experiment, 6 measurements are used for the performance analysis of the proposed method and traditional methods. Through the experiment. it has been shown that the proposed method demonstrates the best quantitative performance of MSSIM and Flickering score and show the adaptive enhancement under sudden illumination change through the visual quality comparison.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.39-54
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• 2000

This research is carried out solving problem of reduction in the rate of operation for the k-1 tank in order to increase the availability, caused by the delay in supply of k-1 tank repair parts in field operations. In other words, the study aims to find the most suitable requirement estimate pattern for the main repair parts that are used for k-1 tank. This study intends to present the most suitable requirement estimate pattern for k-1 trank repair pats by comparing the results of repair parts consumption data in relation to their pattern created by the programs of the requirement estimate technique(moving average method) currently used in the Army and adaptive exponential smoothing model. The results of this study numerically proved that the adaptive exponential smoothing model is the most appropriate technique in estimating the requirement for k-1 tank repair parts.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.485-492
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• 1998

Most forecasting models often fail to produce appropriate forecasts because we build a model based on the assumption of the data being generated from the only one stochastic process. However, in many real problems, the time series data are generated from one stochastic process for a while and then abruptly undergo certain structural changes. In this paper, we assume the basic underlying process is the simple state-space model with random level and deterministic drift but interrupted by three types of exogenous shocks: level shift, drift change, outlier. A Bayesian procedure to detect, estimate and adapt to the structural changes is developed and compared with simple, double and adaptive exponential smoothing using simulated data and the U.S. leading composite index.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1991.10a
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• pp.198-198
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• 1991