• Title/Summary/Keyword: accuracy index

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Problems in methodology for estimating cost of milk production and its improvement (우유생산비 조사 및 계산상의 문제점과 합리화방안 연구)

  • Chun, Ryong;Seo, Seong-Won;Park, Jong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.227-242
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    • 2012
  • Accurate estimation of milk production cost is very important for dairy farmers in establishing strategies for business management (e.g. planning a program for milk production, deciding the size of business and investment, determining the milk price for sale). Since the estimated cost of milk production is used as an important index to determine the basal price of milk in Korea, there has been much interest and debate on the method used to estimate milk production cost among the stakeholder. This study was thus carried out to identify problems in the current methodology for estimating cost of milk production, and to find a better way to improve it. We propose several alternatives and better ways to improve the current method for estimating cost of milk production. Estimation of the income and cost per head should be based on the number of cattle converted to grown cows. Cost estimation per liter of milk should be made for both whole milk and 3.4% milk fat corrected milk. The value of purchased cows and raised replacement heifers should be the same as their market value. The productive life span of cows should be less 4 years, and the terminal or salvage value of cows needs to be 30 to 40% less than her initial value. When calculating depreciation of cows over the productive life span, however, the salvage value should be 0 or 1 Korean won. On calculating labor costs, the farm labor wage corresponding to the average wage of nonfarm industrial workers should be assumed. Beside of these, better estimation procedures for other items are also given. The proposed methods from this study should improve the accuracy of estimation of milk production cost and help to achieve consensus among the stakeholder.

Validation of the Thai Version of aWork-related Quality of Life Scale in the Nursing Profession

  • Sirisawasd, Poramate;Chaiear, Naesinee;Johns, Nutjaree Pratheepawanit;Khiewyoo, Jiraporn
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.80-85
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    • 2014
  • Background: Currently available questionnaires for evaluating the quality of worklife do not fully examine every factor related to worklife in all cultures. A tool in Thai is therefore needed for the direct evaluation of the quality of worklife. Our aim was to translate the Work-related Quality of Life Scale-2 (WRQLS-2) into Thai, to assess the validity and reliability of the Thai-translated version, and to examine the tool's accuracy vis-$\grave{a}$-vis nursing in Thailand. Methods: This was a descriptive correlation study. Forward and backward translations were performed to develop a Thai version of the WRQLS. Six nursing experts participated in assessing content validity and 374 registered nurses (RNs) participated in its testing. After a 2-week interval, 67 RNs were retested. Structural validity was examined using principal components analysis. The Cronbach's alpha values were calculated. The respective independent sample t test and intraclass correlation coefficient were used to analyze known-group validity and test-retest reliability. Multistate sampling was used to select 374 RNs from the In- and Outpatient Department of Srinagarind Hospital of the Khon Kaen University (Khon Kaen, Thailand). Results: The content validity index of the scale was 0.97. Principal components analysis resulted in a seven-factor model, which explains 59% of the total variance. The overall Cronbach's alpha value was 0.925, whereas the subscales ranged between 0.67 and 0.82. In the assessment results, the known-group validity was established for the difference between civil servants and university employees [F (7.982, 0.005) and t (3.351; p < 0.05)]. Civil servants apparently had a better quality worklife, compared to university employees. Good test-retest reliability was observed (r = 0.892, p < 0.05). Conclusion: The Thai version of a WRQLS appears to be well validated and practicable for determining the quality of the work-life among nurses in Thailand.

Analysis on Inundation Characteristics for Flood Impact Forecasting in Gangnam Drainage Basin (강남지역 홍수영향예보를 위한 침수특성 분석)

  • Lee, Byong-Ju
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.189-197
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    • 2017
  • Progressing from weather forecasts and warnings to multi-hazard impact-based forecast and warning services represents a paradigm shift in service delivery. Urban flooding is a typical meteorological disaster. This study proposes support plan for urban flooding impact-based forecast by providing inundation risk matrix. To achieve this goal, we first configured storm sewer management model (SWMM) to analyze 1D pipe networks and then grid based inundation analysis model (GIAM) to analyze 2D inundation depth over the Gangnam drainage area with $7.4km^2$. The accuracy of the simulated inundation results for heavy rainfall in 2010 and 2011 are 0.61 and 0.57 in POD index, respectively. 20 inundation scenarios responding on rainfall scenarios with 10~200 mm interval are produced for 60 and 120 minutes of rainfall duration. When the inundation damage thresholds are defined as pre-occurrence stage, occurrence stage to $0.01km^2$, 0.01 to $0.1km^2$, and $0.1km^2$ or more in area with a depth of 0.5 m or more, rainfall thresholds responding on each inundation damage threshold results in: 0 to 20 mm, 20 to 50 mm, 50 to 80 mm, and 80 mm or more in the rainfall duration 60 minutes and 0 to 30 mm, 30 to 70 mm, 70 to 110 mm, and 110 mm or more in the rainfall duration 120 minutes. Rainfall thresholds as a trigger of urban inundation damage can be used to form an inundation risk matrix. It is expected to be used for urban flood impact forecasting.

Forecasting Innovation Performance via Deep Learning Algorithm : A Case of Korean Manufacturing Industry (빅데이터 분석방법을 활용한 제조업 혁신성과예측 방법에 대한 연구 : 딥 러닝 알고리즘을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Jeong-jae;Kim, Jae Young;Park, Jaemin
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.818-837
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    • 2018
  • Technological innovation has inherent difficulties, largely due to the uncertainties of technology. Thus, the forecasting methodology to reduce the risk of uncertainty in the innovation process has been presented both in quantitative and qualitative fields. On the other hand, big data and artificial intelligence have attracted great interest recently, and deep learning, which is one of the algorithms of AlphaGo, is showing excellent performance. In this study, deep learning methodology was applied to the prediction of innovation performance. To make the prediction model, we used KIS 2016 data. The input factors were importance of information source and innovation objectives and the output factor was innovation performance index, which was calculated for this study. As a result of the analysis, it can be confirmed that the accuracy of prediction is improved compared with the previous studies. As learning progressed, the degree of freedom of prediction also improved.

Self-Organizing Polynomial Neural Networks Based on Genetically Optimized Multi-Layer Perceptron Architecture

  • Park, Ho-Sung;Park, Byoung-Jun;Kim, Hyun-Ki;Oh, Sung-Kwun
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.423-434
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we introduce a new topology of Self-Organizing Polynomial Neural Networks (SOPNN) based on genetically optimized Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and discuss its comprehensive design methodology involving mechanisms of genetic optimization. Let us recall that the design of the 'conventional' SOPNN uses the extended Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) technique to exploit polynomials as well as to consider a fixed number of input nodes at polynomial neurons (or nodes) located in each layer. However, this design process does not guarantee that the conventional SOPNN generated through learning results in optimal network architecture. The design procedure applied in the construction of each layer of the SOPNN deals with its structural optimization involving the selection of preferred nodes (or PNs) with specific local characteristics (such as the number of input variables, the order of the polynomials, and input variables) and addresses specific aspects of parametric optimization. An aggregate performance index with a weighting factor is proposed in order to achieve a sound balance between the approximation and generalization (predictive) abilities of the model. To evaluate the performance of the GA-based SOPNN, the model is experimented using pH neutralization process data as well as sewage treatment process data. A comparative analysis indicates that the proposed SOPNN is the model having higher accuracy as well as more superb predictive capability than other intelligent models presented previously.reviously.

Effects of the Random Fluctuation in Grating Period on the Characteristics of DFB Lasers (회절격자 주기의 랜덤 변이가 DFB 레이저 특성에 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Jae-Woong;Kim, Sang-Bae
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
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    • v.37 no.8
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    • pp.76-85
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    • 2000
  • Effects of the random fluctuation in grating half-period have been studied by an effective index transfer matrix method in DFB lasers. The laser facets are assumed to be perfectly antireflection coated, and the period fluctuation is modeled as a Gaussian random variable. The random fluctuation breaks spectral symmetry in both uniform-grating and quarter-wavelength -shifted(QWS) DFB lasers, and decreases the effective coupling coefficient. This leads to increased average mirror loss of ${\pm}$1 modes and reduced stopband width in uniform grating DFB lasers, and degradation in the wavelength accuracy and the single mode stability in QWS-DFB lasers. Threshold gain difference decreases with increasing period fluctuation irrespective of grating coupling coefficient in QWS-DFB lasers, while spatial hole-burning effect is exacerbated or alleviated when the normalized coupling coefficient is lower and higher than 1.5, respectively.

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Evaluation of a Solar Flare Forecast Model with Value Score

  • Park, Jongyeob;Moon, Yong-Jae;Lee, Kangjin;Lee, Jaejin
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.80.1-80.1
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    • 2016
  • There are probabilistic forecast models for solar flare occurrence, which can be evaluated by various skill scores (e.g. accuracy, critical success index, heidek skill score, and true skill score). Since these skill scores assume that two types of forecast errors (i.e. false alarm and miss) are equal or constant, which does not take into account different situations of users, they may be unrealistic. In this study, we make an evaluation of a probabilistic flare forecast model [Lee et al., 2012] which use sunspot groups and its area changes as a proxy of flux emergence. We calculate daily solar flare probabilities from 2011 to 2014 using this model. The skill scores are computed through contingency tables as a function of forecast probability, which corresponds to the maximum skill score depending on flare class and type of a skill score. We use a value score with cost/loss ratio, relative importance between the two types of forecast errors. The forecast probability (y) is linearly changed with the cost/loss ratio (x) in the form of y=ax+b: a=0.88; b=0 (C), a=1.2; b=-0.05(M), a=1.29; b=-0.02(X). We find that the forecast model has an effective range of cost/loss ratio for each class flare: 0.536-0.853(C), 0.147-0.334(M), and 0.023-0.072(X). We expect that this study would provide a guideline to determine the probability threshold and the cost/loss ratio for space weather forecast.

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Korean Groal Potential Habitat Suitability Model at Soraksan National Park Using Fuzzy Set and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (설악산국립공원내 산양(Nemorhaedus Caudatus Raddeanus)의 잠재 서식지 적합성 모형; 다기준평가기법(MCE)과 퍼지집합(Fuzzy Set)의 도입을 통하여)

  • Choi Tae-Young;Park Chong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.28-38
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    • 2004
  • Korean goral (Nemorhaedus caudatus raddeanus) is one of the endangered species in Korea, and the rugged terrain of the Soraksan National Park (373㎢) is a critical habitat for the species. But the goral population is threatened by habitat fragmentation caused by roads and hiking trails. The objective of this study was to develop a potential habitat suitability model for Korean goral in the park, and the model was based on the concepts of fuzzy set theory and multi-criteria evaluation. The process of the suitability modeling could be divided into three steps. First, data for the modeling was collected by using field work and a literature survey. Collected data included 204 points of GPS data obtained through a goral trace survey and through the number of daily visitors to each hiking trail during the peak season of the park. Second, fuzzy set theory was employed for building a GIS data base related to environmental factors affecting the suitability of the goral habitat. Finally, a multiple-criteria evaluation was performed as the final step towards a goral habitat suitability model. The results of the study were as follows. First, characteristics of suitable habitats were the proximity to rock cliffs, scattered pine (Pinus densiflora) patches, ridges, the elevation of 700∼800m, and the aspect of south and southeast. Second, the habitat suitability model had a high classification accuracy of 93.9% for the analysis site, and 95.7% for the validation site at a cut off value of 0.5. Finally, 11.7% of habitatwith more than 0.5 of habitat suitability index was affected by roads and hiking trails in the park.

Studies of vision monitoring system using a background separation algorithm during radiotherapy (방사선 치료시 배경분리알고리즘을 이용한 비젼모니터링 시스템에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Kiyong;Choi, Jaehyun;Park, Jeawon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.359-366
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    • 2016
  • The normal tissue in radiation therapy, to minimize radiation, it is most important to maximize local tumor control rates in intensive research the exact dose to the tumor sites. Therefore, the initial, therapist accuracy of detecting movement of the patient fatigue therapist has been a problem that is weighted down directly. Also, by using a web camera, a difference value between the image to be updated to the reference image is calculated, if the result exceeds the reference value, using the system for determining the motion has occurred. However, this system, it is not possible to quantitatively analyze the movement of the patient, the background is changed when moving the treatment bed in the co-therapeutic device was not able to sift the patient. In this paper, using a alpah(${\alpha}$) filter index is an attempt to solve these limitations points, quantifies the movement of the patient, by separating a background image of the patient and treatment environment, and movement of the patient during treatment It senses only, it was possible to reduce the problems due to patient movement.

Large deflection behavior and stability of slender bars under self weight

  • Goncalves, Paulo B.;Jurjo, Daniel Leonardo B.R.;Magluta, Carlos;Roitman, Ney;Pamplona, Djenane
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.709-725
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    • 2006
  • In this paper the buckling and post-buckling behavior of slender bars under self-weight are studied. In order to study the post-buckling behavior of the bar, a geometrically exact formulation for the non-linear analysis of uni-directional structural elements is presented, considering arbitrary load distribution and boundary conditions. From this formulation one obtains a set of first-order coupled nonlinear equations which, together with the boundary conditions at the bar ends, form a two-point boundary value problem. This problem is solved by the simultaneous use of the Runge-Kutta integration scheme and the Newton-Raphson method. By virtue of a continuation algorithm, accurate solutions can be obtained for a variety of stability problems exhibiting either limit point or bifurcational-type buckling. Using this formulation, a detailed parametric analysis is conducted in order to study the buckling and post-buckling behavior of slender bars under self-weight, including the influence of boundary conditions on the stability and large deflection behavior of the bar. In order to evaluate the quality and accuracy of the results, an experimental analysis was conducted considering a clamped-free thin-walled metal bar. As this kind of structure presents a high index of slenderness, its answers could be affected by the introduction of conventional sensors. In this paper, an experimental methodology was developed, allowing the measurement of static or dynamic displacements without making contact with the structure, using digital image processing techniques. The proposed experimental procedure can be used to a wide class of problems involving large deflections and deformations. The experimental buckling and post-buckling behavior compared favorably with the theoretical and numerical results.