• Title/Summary/Keyword: accident rate model

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Traffic Accident Models of 3-Legged Signalized Intersections in the Case of Cheongju (3지 신호교차로의 교통사고 발생모형 - 청주시를 사례로 -)

  • Park, Byung-Ho;Han, Sang-Uk;Kim, Tae-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.94-99
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    • 2009
  • This study deals with the traffic accidents at the 3-legged signalized intersections in Cheongu. The goals are to analyze the geometric, traffic and operational conditions of intersections and to develop a various functional forms that predict the accidents. The models are developed through the correlation analysis, the multiple linear, the multiple nonlinear, Poisson and negative binomial regression analysis. In this study, two multiple linear, two multiple nonlinear and two negative binomial regression models were calibrated. These models were all analyzed to be statistically significant. All the models include 2 common variables(traffic volume and lane width) and model-specific variables. These variables are, therefore, evaluated to be critical to the accident reduction of Cheongju.

Predicting the Tritium Release Accident in a Nuclear Fusion Plant (원자핵 융합 발전소의 삼중수소 유출 사고 예측)

  • 양희중
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.201-212
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    • 1998
  • A methodology of the safety analysis on the fusion power plant is introduced. It starts with the understanding of the physics and engineering of the plant followed by the assessment of the tritium inventory and flow rate. We a, pp.y the probabilistic risk assessment. An event tree that explains the propagation of the accident is constructed and then it is translated in to an influence diagram, that is accident is constructed and then it is translated in to an influence diagram, that is statistically equivalent so far as the parameter updating is concerned. We follow the Bayesian a, pp.oach where model parameters are treated as random variables. We briefly discuss the parameter updating scheme, and finally develop the methodology to obtain the predictive distribution of time to next severe accident.

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Contribution of production and loss terms of fission products on in-containment activity under severe accident condition for VVER-1000

  • Jafarikia, S.;Feghhi, S.A.H.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.125-137
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this paper is to study the source term behavior after severe accidents by using a semi-kinetic model for simulation and calculation of in-containment activity. The reactor containment specification and the safety features of the containment under different accident conditions play a great role in evaluating the in-containment activity. Assuming in-vessel and instantaneous release of radioactivity into the containment, the behavior of in-containment isotopic activity is studied for noble gasses (Kr and Xe) and the more volatile elements of iodine, cesium, and aerosols such as Te, Rb and Sr as illustrative examples of source term release under LOCA conditions. The results of the activity removal mechanisms indicates that the impact of volumetric leakage rate for noble gasses is important during the accident, while the influence of deposition on the containment surfaces for cesium, mainly iodine isotopes and aerosol has the largest contribution in removal of activity during evolution of the accident.

Development of the Expected Safety Performance Models for Rural Highway Segments (지방부 국도의 사고예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Ju-Taek;Kim, Do-Hoon;Lee, Dong-Min
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.131-143
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    • 2012
  • The past researches on roadway segment safety estimation focused on intersections, which are the primary traffic accident regions. The past researches on roadway segments, However, analyzed the effects of certain factors on the traffic accident occurrence rate by organizing the individual geometric structures of the roads, and there is still a dearth of researches on the development of a traffic accident estimation model for rural roadway segments. Therefore, this research focused on rural two-lane and multilane roadway segments and developed traffic accident estimation models through the application of statistical techniques. This is required to explain such high frequency of zero counts in the traffic accident data. In this research, it was found that the Hurdle model is more suitable than the Poisson or negative binomial-regression model for explaining the excess zeros case. In addition, main variables were chosen to estimate their effects on traffic accident occurrence at rural roadway segments, and the safety at such rural roadway segments was estimated. In this research, it was assumed that there are different factors that affect the safety at two-way lane and multilane roadway segments, and a traffic accident estimation model was developed by dividing the two-way lane and multilane roadway segments.

MPS eutectic reaction model development for severe accident phenomenon simulation

  • Zhu, Yingzi;Xiong, Jinbiao;Yang, Yanhua
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.833-841
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    • 2021
  • During the postulated severe accident of nuclear reactor, eutectic reaction leads to low-temperature melting of fuel cladding and early failure of core structure. In order to model eutectic melting with the moving particle semi-implicit (MPS) method, the eutectic reaction model is developed to simulate the eutectic reaction phenomenon. The coupling of mass diffusion and phase diagram is applied to calculate the eutectic reaction with the uniform temperature. A heat transfer formula is proposed based on the phase diagram to handle the heat release or absorption during the process of eutectic reaction, and it can combine with mass diffusion and phase diagram to describe the eutectic reaction with temperature variation. The heat transfer formula is verified by the one-dimensional melting simulations and the predicted interface position agrees well with the theoretical solution. In order to verify the eutectic reaction models, the eutectic reaction of uranium and iron in two semi-infinite domains is simulated, and the profile of solid thickness decrease over time follows the parabolic law. The modified MPS method is applied to calculate Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) experiment, the penetration rate in the simulations are agreeable with the experiment results. In addition, a hypothetical case based on the TREAT experiment is also conducted to validate the eutectic reaction with temperature variation, the results present continuity with the simulations of TREAT experiment. Thus the improved method is proved to be capable of simulating the eutectic reaction in the severe accident.

Development of Two-Dimensional Hydrogen Mixing Model in Containment Subcompartment Under the Severe Accident Conditions

  • Lee, Byung-Chul;Cho, Jae-Seon;Park, Goon-Cherl;Chung, Chang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1996.05b
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    • pp.663-668
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    • 1996
  • A two-dimensional continuum model for the prediction of the hydrogen mixing phenomena in the containment compartment under the severe accident conditions is developed. The model could predict well the distribution of time-dependent hydrogen concentration for selected HEDL Experiment. For a simulation of these experiments, the hydrogen is mixed uniform over the test compartment. To predict the extent of non-uniform distribution, the dominant factors such as the geometrical shape of obstacle and velocity of source injection in mixing phenomena are investigated. If the obstacle disturbing the flow of gas mixture exists in the compartment, the uniform distribution of hydrogen may be not guaranteed. The convective circulation of gas flow is separately formed up and down of the obstacle position, which makes a difference of hydrogen concentration between the upper and lower region of the compartment. The recirculation flow must have a considerable mass flow rate relative to velocity of the source injection to sustain the well-mixed conditions of hydrogen.

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- An Education Model Improvement of the Small and Medium Sized Enterprises for Survey of Safety Education Actual Condition - (안전 교육 실태 조사를 통한 중소기업의 안전 교육 모델 개발)

  • 전미경;홍성만;박범
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2003
  • Domestic industry calamity rate did decrease in large numbers by many efforts of the safety and the health organizations. Nevertheless domestic industrial accident level is low yet among the OECD countries. Domestic small and medium enterprises is in trend that industrial accident is increased by deterioration of hardware, unpreparedness of safety equipments. But, Domestic small and medium enterprises' safety and health education had not been utilized so far effectively. This research groped efficient operation model of the safety and the health education through the survey about a solution for problems of education that is enforced in small and medium enterprises to three groups of workers and safety and health administrators and managers. Compared domestic safety and health educational system and advanced foreign educational system. And, analyze problems about domestic small and medium enterprise's safety and health education and presented a solution. Finally, presented efficient operation model of the safety and the health education suitable to domestic medium and small enterprises.

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A Study of Risk Factor Analysis of Republic of Korea Air Force Training Pilot (공군 훈련 조종사 위험요인 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Hakbong Lee;Ohsung Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2023
  • The overall Air Force's serious accident rate is decreasing, but the trainer's accident rate is on the rise from 0.24% in '00~'09 to 0.77% in '01~'19. Base on the SHELL model recommended by the ICAO, the risk factors of the introductory flight training course were analyzed, implications were examined, and safety promotion measures were proposed. A survey of 25 questions was organized based on regulations, guidelines, and related data for each component of the SHELL model in accordance with the introductory course of Air Force flight training. The survey was divided into a student group and instructor group and compared and analyzed into L-L, L-S, L-H, and L-E based on the results after conducting it, and implications for this were derived. Compared to other analysis factors, L-L showed that the average of the instructor group was relatively higher that of the student group in all questions.

Safety of Industrial Overhead Doors : A Review of Maintenance and Parallel Safety Devices (산업용 오버헤드 도어의 사고 예방 : 유지관리 및 병렬구조 안전장치를 중심으로)

  • Bok Ki Kim;Jaewook Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzes the impact of regular preventive maintenance (PM) on reducing the failure rate and occurrence of falling accidents of industrial overhead doors. A reliable safety device model with an additional safety device, which is installed to replace a defective one, is proposed. The research methodology involves collecting breakdown and falling accident records, comparing and analyzing data before and after regular PM implementation, and experimenting with two types of retrofittable safety devices. Key findings are as follows. 1. Regular PM implementation significantly reduces the failure rate of old overhead doors. 2. A parallel structured model with two alternative safety devices can minimize falling accident risks. The study's contributions include the following. 1. The positive impact of PM on extending overhead door lifespan is quantified. 2. A general safety device model that can be retrofitted and used as replacement with a fail-safe function is proposed.

Development of the Risk Evaluation Model for Rear End Collision on the Basis of Microscopic Driving Behaviors (미시적 주행행태를 반영한 후미추돌위험 평가모형 개발)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong;Song, Ki-Han;Park, Chang-Ho;Chon, Kyung-Soo;Kho, Seung-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2004
  • A model and a measure which can evaluate the risk of rear end collision are developed. Most traffic accidents involve multiple causes such as the human factor, the vehicle factor, and the highway element at any given time. Thus, these factors should be considered in analyzing the risk of an accident and in developing safety models. Although most risky situations and accidents on the roads result from the poor response of a driver to various stimuli, many researchers have modeled the risk or accident by analyzing only the stimuli without considering the response of a driver. Hence, the reliabilities of those models turned out to be low. Thus in developing the model behaviors of a driver, such as reaction time and deceleration rate, are considered. In the past, most studies tried to analyze the relationships between a risk and an accident directly but they, due to the difficulty of finding out the directional relationships between these factors, developed a model by considering these factors, developed a model by considering indirect factors such as volume, speed, etc. However, if the relationships between risk and accidents are looked into in detail, it can be seen that they are linked by the behaviors of a driver, and depending on drivers the risk as it is on the road-vehicle system may be ignored or call drivers' attention. Therefore, an accident depends on how a driver handles risk, so that the more related risk to and accident occurrence is not the risk itself but the risk responded by a driver. Thus, in this study, the behaviors of a driver are considered in the model and to reflect these behaviors three concepts related to accidents are introduced. And safe stopping distance and accident occurrence probability were used for better understanding and for more reliable modeling of the risk. The index which can represent the risk is also developed based on measures used in evaluating noise level, and for the risk comparison between various situations, the equivalent risk level, considering the intensity and duration time, is developed by means of the weighted average. Validation is performed with field surveys on the expressway of Seoul, and the test vehicle was made to collect the traffic flow data, such as deceleration rate, speed and spacing. Based on this data, the risk by section, lane and traffic flow conditions are evaluated and compared with the accident data and traffic conditions. The evaluated risk level corresponds closely to the patterns of actual traffic conditions and counts of accident. The model and the method developed in this study can be applied to various fields, such as safety test of traffic flow, establishment of operation & management strategy for reliable traffic flow, and the safety test for the control algorithm in the advanced safety vehicles and many others.