• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.91-98
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• 2011

We develop a model to predict traffic accidents in Korea. In contrast to the classical approach that mainly uses regression analysis, Bayesian approach is adopted. A dependent model that incorporates the data from different kinds of accidents is introduced. The rate of severe accident can be updated even with no data of the same kind. The data of minor accident that can be obtained frequently is efficiently used to predict the severe accident.