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Solar Power Generation Forecast Model Using Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA 모형을 이용한 태양광 발전량 예보 모형 구축)

  • Lee, Dong-Hyun;Jung, Ahyun;Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Chang Ki;Kim, Hyun-Goo;Lee, Yung-Seop
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2019
  • New and renewable energy forecasts are key technology to reduce the annual operating cost of new and renewable facilities, and accuracy of forecasts is paramount. In this study, we intend to build a model for the prediction of short-term solar power generation for 1 hour to 3 hours. To this end, this study applied two time series technique, ARIMA model without considering seasonality and SARIMA model with considering seasonality, comparing which technique has better predictive accuracy. Comparing predicted errors by MAE measures of solar power generation for 1 hour to 3 hours at four locations, the solar power forecast model using ARIMA was better in terms of predictive accuracy than the solar power forecast model using SARIMA. On the other hand, a comparison of predicted error by RMSE measures resulted in a solar power forecast model using SARIMA being better in terms of predictive accuracy than a solar power forecast model using ARIMA.

A Study on Kernel Size Adaptation for Correntropy-based Learning Algorithms (코렌트로피 기반 학습 알고리듬의 커널 사이즈에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Namyong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.714-720
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    • 2021
  • The ITL (information theoretic learning) based on the kernel density estimation method that has successfully been applied to machine learning and signal processing applications has a drawback of severe sensitiveness in choosing proper kernel sizes. For the maximization of correntropy criterion (MCC) as one of the ITL-type criteria, several methods of adapting the remaining kernel size ( ) after removing the term have been studied. In this paper, it is shown that the main cause of sensitivity in choosing the kernel size derives from the term and that the adaptive adjustment of in the remaining terms leads to approach the absolute value of error, which prevents the weight adjustment from continuing. Thus, it is proposed that choosing an appropriate constant as the kernel size for the remaining terms is more effective. In addition, the experiment results when compared to the conventional algorithm show that the proposed method enhances learning performance by about 2dB of steady state MSE with the same convergence rate. In an experiment for channel models, the proposed method enhances performance by 4 dB so that the proposed method is more suitable for more complex or inferior conditions.

Development of a soil total carbon prediction model using a multiple regression analysis method

  • Jun-Hyuk, Yoo;Jwa-Kyoung, Sung;Deogratius, Luyima;Taek-Keun, Oh;Jaesung, Cho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.891-897
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    • 2021
  • There is a need for a technology that can quickly and accurately analyze soil carbon contents. Existing soil carbon analysis methods are cumbersome in terms of professional manpower requirements, time, and cost. It is against this background that the present study leverages the soil physical properties of color and water content levels to develop a model capable of predicting the carbon content of soil sample. To predict the total carbon content of soil, the RGB values, water content of the soil, and lux levels were analyzed and used as statistical data. However, when R, G, and B with high correlations were all included in a multiple regression analysis as independent variables, a high level of multicollinearity was noted and G was thus excluded from the model. The estimates showed that the estimation coefficients for all independent variables were statistically significant at a significance level of 1%. The elastic values of R and B for the soil carbon content, which are of major interest in this study, were -2.90 and 1.47, respectively, showing that a 1% increase in the R value was correlated with a 2.90% decrease in the carbon content, whereas a 1% increase in the B value tallied with a 1.47% increase in the carbon content. Coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) methods were used for regression verification, and calibration samples showed higher accuracy than the validation samples in terms of R2 and MAPE.

Terminological Misuses and Institutional Coherence in Electoral Systems (선거제도의 개념 오용과 정합성: 비례대표성을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Chae-Han
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.5-31
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    • 2019
  • In the process of changing the Korean electoral system, various terms such as representation, majority, minority, plurality, and proportionality are not used correctly, making normative judgment on its desirable electoral system difficult. This paper clarifies the concepts and terminology related to the electoral system in order to enable proper normative discussion. First, the misuse of the names of the electoral system is reviewed. This includes the majority representative system versus the minority representative system, the single-member constituency versus the multi-member constituency, the absolute majority system versus the relative majority system, and the majority representative system versus the proportional representative system. Next, the principles of representation, proportionality, democracy, direct ballot, and equal ballot are discussed to evaluate the decisions made by the Constitutional Court of Korea. In the current electoral system of the National Assembly, the equivalence between its constituency member and its proportional representation member is very low in terms of proportionality between votes received and seats allotted. Finally, the coherence between proportional representation and other political institutions is examined. Strengthening the proportionality of parliamentary elections alone does not necessarily increase the proportionality of the entire power structure.

Review of Contraindications for Oncology Acupuncture (암 환자의 침치료 금기증에 대한 고찰)

  • Bang, Sun-Hwi;Yoo, Hwa-Seung;Lee, Yeon-Weol;Cho, Chong-Kwan
    • Journal of Korean Traditional Oncology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2011
  • Objectives : Contradictions for Oncology acupuncture were searched and reviewed to establish fundamentals for the appropriate contraindication guideline. Methods : In order to search contraindications for oncology acupuncture, domestic journals, books and online database of Pubmed were searched using the terms, cancer, tumor, acupuncture, safety, contraindications and guideline were below. Results : We found 7 papers and 1 book by the above methods. We reviewed and suggested the contraindications. Contraindications for oncology acupuncture are neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count : ANC less than $500/mm^3$), thrombocytopenia (platelets less than $50,000/mm^3$), anticoagulant use, spinal instability, tumour nodule, lymphedema, prosthesis, intracranial deficits, confused patients, significant arrhythmia, patient refusal to treatment, severe neurotic patients and intracardiac defribillator. Contraindications for using semi-permanent needles are neutropenia (ANC less than $500/mm^3$), splenectomy, valvular heart disease, B, C hepatitis and keloids. Conclusions : Acupuncture for cancer patients pose significant risks but these guidelines are proposed in the hopes of providing certain boundaries in practicing oncology acupuncture. A more systematic and rigorous research is needed to establish a more reliable oncology acupuncture guidelines.

Self-organized Learning in Complexity Growing of Radial Basis Function Networks

  • Arisariyawong, Somwang;Charoenseang, Siam
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2002.07a
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    • pp.30-33
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    • 2002
  • To obtain good performance of radial basis function (RBF) neural networks, it needs very careful consideration in design. The selection of several parameters such as the number of centers and widths of the radial basis functions must be considered carefully since they critically affect the network's performance. We propose a learning algorithm for growing of complexity of RBF neural networks which is adapted automatically according to the complexity of tasks. The algorithm generates a new basis function based on the errors of network, the percentage of decreasing rate of errors and the nearest distance from input data to the center of hidden unit. The RBF's center is located at the point where the maximum of absolute interference error occurs in the input space. The width is calculated based on the standard deviation of distance between the center and inputs data. The steepest descent method is also applied for adjusting the weights, centers, and widths. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm, general problem of function estimation is evaluated. The results obtained from the simulation show that the proposed algorithm for RBF neural networks yields good performance in terms of convergence and accuracy compared with those obtained by conventional multilayer feedforward networks.

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A Hashing-Based Algorithm for Order-Preserving Multiple Pattern Matching (순위다중패턴매칭을 위한 해싱기반 알고리즘)

  • Kang, Munseong;Cho, Sukhyeun;Sim, Jeong Seop
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.509-515
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    • 2016
  • Given a text T and a pattern P, the order-preserving pattern matching problem is to find all substrings in T which have the same relative orders as P. The order-preserving pattern matching problem has been studied in terms of finding some patterns affected by relative orders, not by their absolute values. Given a text T and a pattern set $\mathbb{P}$, the order-preserving multiple pattern matching problem is to find all substrings in T which have the same relative orders as any pattern in $\mathbb{P}$. In this paper, we present a hashing-based algorithm for the order-preserving multiple pattern matching problem.

Multiple Group Testing Procedures for Analysis of High-Dimensional Genomic Data

  • Ko, Hyoseok;Kim, Kipoong;Sun, Hokeun
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.187-195
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    • 2016
  • In genetic association studies with high-dimensional genomic data, multiple group testing procedures are often required in order to identify disease/trait-related genes or genetic regions, where multiple genetic sites or variants are located within the same gene or genetic region. However, statistical testing procedures based on an individual test suffer from multiple testing issues such as the control of family-wise error rate and dependent tests. Moreover, detecting only a few of genes associated with a phenotype outcome among tens of thousands of genes is of main interest in genetic association studies. In this reason regularization procedures, where a phenotype outcome regresses on all genomic markers and then regression coefficients are estimated based on a penalized likelihood, have been considered as a good alternative approach to analysis of high-dimensional genomic data. But, selection performance of regularization procedures has been rarely compared with that of statistical group testing procedures. In this article, we performed extensive simulation studies where commonly used group testing procedures such as principal component analysis, Hotelling's $T^2$ test, and permutation test are compared with group lasso (least absolute selection and shrinkage operator) in terms of true positive selection. Also, we applied all methods considered in simulation studies to identify genes associated with ovarian cancer from over 20,000 genetic sites generated from Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation27K Beadchip. We found a big discrepancy of selected genes between multiple group testing procedures and group lasso.

Response Spectra of Structure Installed Frictional Damping System (마찰형 감쇠를 갖는 구조물의 응답 스펙트럼)

  • Park, Ji-Hun;Youn, Kyong-Jo;Min, Kyung-Won;Lee, Sang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.893-897
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    • 2006
  • Structures with additional frictional damping system have strong nonlinearity that the dynamic behavior is highly affected. by the relative magnitude between frictional force and excitation load. In this study, normalized response spectra of the structures with non-dimensional friction force are obtained through nonlinear time history analyses of the mass-normalized single degree of freedom systems using 20 ground motion data recorded on rock site. The variation of the control performance of frictional damping system is investigated in terms of the dynamic load and the structural natural period, of which effects were not considered in the previous studies. Least square curve fitting equations are presented for describing those normalized response spectrum and optimal non-dimensional friction forces are obtained for controlling the peak displacement and absolute acceleration of the structure based on the derivative of the curve fitted design spectrum.

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A Study on Development of Backpack Journalism Using Digital Mobile News Gathering (무선통신망 중계방송(DMNG)을 이용한 '백팩 저널리즘' 발전방안 연구)

  • Jeong, Gyoung-Youl
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.334-342
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    • 2017
  • Due to the development of telecommunication technology, the relay broadcasting system is changing rapidly. The introduction of the wireless mobile communication relay (DMNG) method has enabled the one-man relay, which has resulted in absolute reductions in terms of equipment and manpower. However, it is a reality that the basic level of broadcasting such as broadcasting stability and image quality is becoming less complete. This paper analyzes wireless telecommunication relay equipment and broadcasting system called 'backpack', and discusses future development plan. To do this, we analyze the success and failure cases of backpack relay broadcasting and present concrete plans.