• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.327-341
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• 2014

This study aims to analyze causality among Wando abalone producer prices by size using a vector autoregressive model to expiscate the leading-price of Wando abalone in various price classes by size per kg. This study, using an analytical approach, applies a unit-root test for stability of data, a Granger causality test to learn about interaction among price classes by size for Wando abalone, and a vector autoregressive model to estimate the statistical impact among t-1 variables used in the model. As a result of our leading-price analysis of Wando abalone producer prices by shell size using a VAR model, first, DF, PP, and KPSS tests showed that the Wando abalone monthly price change rate by size differentiated by logarithm were stable. Second, the Granger causality relationship analysis showed that the price change rate for big size abalone weakly led the price change rate for the small and medium sizes of abalone. Third, the vector autoregressive model showed that three price change rates of t-1 period variables statistically, significantly impacted price change rates of own size and other sizes in t period. Fourth, the impulse response analysis indicated that the impulse responses of structural shocks for price change rate for big size abalone was relatively more powerful in its own size and in other sizes than shocks emanating from other sizes. Fifth, the variance decomposition analysis indicated that the price change rate for big size abalone was relatively more influential than the price change rates for medium and small size abalone.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제44권3호
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• pp.15-28
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• 2013

Abalone aquaculture has developed very rapidly in Korea. Until the mid 1990s it has annually produced about 100 tons. Since then the yield has increased to about 9,000 tons in 2012. The amount accounts for 20% of the global abalone yield. About 86% of produced abalone is consumed domestically and the rest is exported. 100 tons for export seemed as an unattainable goal back in 2003. However, the export rose up to 1,333 tons in 2012. Despite its rapid growth, Korean abalone industry is faced with some problems. The first is the slowdown of yield increase rates. Abalone production increased by 50~60% until the mid 2000. However, the rate continued to drop to below 10%. Reasons behind the slow increase are deteriorating aquaculture grounds and worsening market problems. Constant aquaculture aggravated productivity and overcrowded facilities at a limited space made matters worse. Moreover, abalone export has stalled and so did domestic consumption. In the meantime, rising mortality of young abalone has lowered productivity at abalone breeding places. The mortality rates of abalone remained below 5% in the early 2000s but rose to 30~40% these days. This translates into rising abalone prices. The market problems imply stagnant or shrinking export as well as domestic consumption. The export increase rates took a nosedive from 200 to below 50 between the early 2000s and the late 2000s. Moreover, the increase rates of domestic consumption have become remarkably sluggish. According to, it stood at 50~60% in the mid 2000s but continued to decrease after 2008. These problems, in turn, affected the size of abalone. The usual abalone size for market was 10~12 shells per kg, but recently the size became smaller and smaller to 15~16 shells per kg. The change of size implies shift in consumption patterns: Consumers not only eat live abalone but also they cook soup with it. The size of abalone for uncooked dish is usually very big, like 10~12 shells per kg. In contrast, smaller abalone, such as 20~25 shells per kg, are used for making soup. Increasing use of smaller abalone leads to lower income of abalone aquaculture households. This is partly because that the size determines the price and the price gap between big abalones and smaller ones is extreme in Korea. For the sustainable growth of Korean abalone industry, we need to come up with strategies. First, a reasonable production system needs to be in place, especially for better management of abalone aquaculture grounds. Management of abalone licenses is also necessary because local governments issue relevant licenses as well as supervising abalone grounds. Second, abalone export destination need to be diversified. Japan, the major importer of Korean abalone, takes up a lion's share of export, at 95%. Third, new consumption style of abalone needs to be developed. Abalone used to be consumed as 'raw type' or Sashimi in Korea. This sole type of consumption hampers the growth of abalone market. Moreover, more strategies are needed to encourage and distribute home cooking of abalone rather than eating-out at restaurants. Last but not least, distribution system should be improved for better delivery of live abalone.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제51권2호
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• pp.51-69
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to construct an outlook model that is consistent with the "Fisheries Outlook" monthly published by the Fisheries Outlook Center of the Korea Maritime Institute(KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to abalone items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model(DEEM) system taking into account biological breeding and shipping time. The results of this study are significant in that they can be used as basic data for model development of various items in the future. In this study, due to the limitation of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated by using the recursive model construction method to be calculated directly as an inverse demand. A model was built in the form of a structural equation model that can explain economic causality rather than a conventional time series analysis model. The research results and implications are as follows. As a result of the estimation of the amount of young seashells planting, it was estimated that the coefficient of the amount of young seashells planting from the previous year was estimated to be 0.82 so that there was no significant difference in the amount of young seashells planting this year and last year. It is also meant to be nurtured for a long time after aquaculture license and limited aquaculture area(edge style) and implantation. The economic factor, the coefficient of price from last year was estimated at 0.47. In the case of breeding quantity, it was estimated that the longer the breeding period, the larger the coefficient of breeding quantity in the previous period. It was analyzed that the impact of shipments on the breeding volume increased. In the case of shipments, the coefficient of production price was estimated unelastically. As the period of rearing increased, the estimation coefficient decreased. Such result indicates that the expected price, which is an economic factor variable and that had less influence on the intention to shipments. In addition, the elasticity of the breeding quantity was estimated more unelastically as the breeding period increased. This is also correlated with the relative coefficient size of the expected price. The abalone supply and demand forecast model developed in this study is significant in that it reduces the prediction error than the existing model using the ecological equation modeling system and the economic causal model. However, there are limitations in establishing a system of simultaneous equations that can be linked to production and consumption between industries and items. This is left as a future research project.