• Title/Summary/Keyword: Worst case scenario

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Offsite Consequence Modeling for Evacuation Distances against Accidental Hydrogen Fluoride (HF) Release Scenarios (Hydrogen Fluoride (HF) 누출 사고 시 피해 범위 예측 및 장외영향평가를 위한 모델링 활용 방법)

  • Kim, Jeonghwan;Jung, Seungho
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.582-585
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    • 2016
  • This study intends to provide initial evacuation distances for the public in case of accidental releases of hydrogen fluoride (HF). HF is a very toxic chemical that is widely used in the chemical, electrical, and electronics industries. Consequence modeling programs, such as ALOHA and PHAST, were used to help formulate a contingency plan in case of an HF leak. For the purpose of this study, the release of entire quantity of HF in 10 min is defined as a worst-case scenario and the release from a partial line rupture is used as an alternative case scenario as National Institute of Chemical Safety (NICS) guidelines. Once the discharge rates were calculated based on the scenarios, the ERPG-2 endpoint distances have been obtained for representative daytime and nighttime weather conditions. This paper presents graphs that can be used to enact swift evacuation orders and emergency response plans in the case of accidental releases of HF.

Safety Assessment on Disposal of HLW from P&T Cycle (핵변환 잔류 고준위 방사성 폐기물 처분 성능 평가)

  • 이연명;황용수;강철형
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.132-145
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    • 2001
  • The purpose and need of the study is to quantify the advantage or disadvantage of the environmental friendliness of the partitioning of nuclear fuel cycle. To this end, a preliminary study on the quantitative effect of the partition on the permanent disposal of spent PWR and CANDU fuel (HLW) was carried out. Before any analysis, the so-called reference radionuclide release scenario from a potential repository embedded into a crystalline rock was developed. Firstly, the feature, event and processes (FEPs) which lead to the release of nuclides from waste disposed of in a repository and the transport to and through the biosphere were identified. Based on the selected FEPs, the ‘Well Scenario’which might be the worst case scenario was set up. For the given scenario, annual individual doses to a local resident exposed to radioactive hazard were estimated and compared to that from direct disposal. Even though partitioning and transmutation could be an ideal solution to reduce the inventory which eventually decreases the release time as well as the peaks in the annual dose and also minimize the repository area through the proper handling of nuclides, it should overcome major disadvantages such as echnical issues on the partitioning and transmutation system, cost, and public acceptance, and environment friendly issues. In this regard, some relevant issues are also discussed to show the direction for further studies.

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Selection of Release Scenario and Consequence Analysis for Gas Explosion by Pipe Release (배관누출에 의한 가스 폭발사고에서 누출 시나리오 선정 및 사고결과 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Ok;Lee, Hern-Chang;Ryoo, Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.10 no.4 s.33
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    • pp.52-62
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    • 2006
  • In this study, we tried to propose a selection method of release scenarios and a method of consequence analysis at a gas explosion by pipe release. Thus, release rates, damage areas of the facilities, and fatality areas were estimated and analyzed at various release conditions(temperature, pressure, release material, etc). As a results, we could conclude that the rupture was the worst case of release scenarios, and at release rates and damage areas were better estimated by the weighted average method considering a generic failure frequency of the release hole than by an arbitrary selection of the release hole.

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A Study on Risk Assessment in Transporting Hazardous Material (위험물질 수송 시 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu Byung Tae;Ko Jae Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.6 no.4 s.18
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2002
  • In this research, the goal is to ascertain the potential danger when transporting hazardous material by considering the important elements that contribute to such situation, instead of relying on the quantitative risk assessment of fixed facilities. Also, this study will verify the social and personal risk according to damage zone limits, by applying the worst case scenario and the alternative scenario that occur during the transportation process. Moreover, it has selected the optimum transportation route for maximum safety. The result of this research could be used to construct a systematic emergency system that can minimize the damage from serious industrial accidents, by effectively decreasing the danger zone and forming a connection between the community, the society, and the industries according to such evaluations.

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Offsite Risk Assessment on Toxic Release (독성물질 저장설비의 사고시 사업장외에 미치는 영향평가)

  • Park, Kyoshik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2017
  • Toxic release is one of the most interested area in evaluating consequence to the vicinity of industry facilities handling hazardous materials. Chloric acid production facility is selected and toxic release is evaluated to assess the risk impacted to its off-site. Accident scenarios were listed using process safety information. The scenarios having effect to the off-site were selected and assessed further according to guideline provided by Korea government. Worst case and alternative scenarios including other interested scenarios were evaluated using ALOHA. Each evaluated scenario was assessed further considering countermeasures. The results showed that the facility handling chloric acid is safe enough and needed no further protections at the moment.

Quantitative Analysis of Damage Impacts in case of Bunkering NH3 from Tank Lorry to Fishing Vessel (어선-탱크로리 간의 NH3 이적 시 누출에 따른 정량적 피해영향분석)

  • Lim, Sang-Jin;Choi, Bu-Hong;Lee, Yoon-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.10-20
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    • 2022
  • About 21% of domestic chemical accidents are caused by transport vehicles for the past 10 years in Korea. Also, ammonia is a chemical substance with the largest number of accidents, 82 out of 672. In this study, supposed seasonal alternative scenario and worst scenario in case of releasing ammonia during bunkering it from tank lorry to fishing vessel and interpreted seasonal impact and range through Python, ALOHA, Probit analysis. Radiation impact range of possibility for 2nd burn and for maximum radiation in winter scenario, which is one of the alternative scenarios, was the highest(range: 41m, radiation: 5.01kW/m2) while overpressure impact was less than minimum standard of impact. And toxicity impact range(EPRG-2) of the summer scenario was the widest(5.0km) and took a very high death rate near accident area(port area, tourist area) according to Probit analysis. the wort scenario had a similar impact and range of summer scenario.

A Study on the Required Stockpiles of Marine Oil Spill Response Equipments in the Busan Area (부산해역에서의 해양오염방제장비의 필요수량에 관한 연구)

  • 윤종휘;윤혁수;김동선
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.139-148
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    • 2002
  • As the Busan harbor is getting susceptible to oil Pollution. the authors analyze the historical records of oil spill accidents and investigate the shoreline features. In addition. we evaluate the response capabilities and compute the required stockpiles of marine oil spill response with the worst case scenario in this area. As a result, it is shown that the recommendable oil spill response is to contain and mechanically recover all oils at sea surface in winter. while chemical dispersants can be used in summer with mechanical containment and recovery, and it is also found that off-shore booms of 3,000m and off-shore skimmers of 986MT/hour recovery rate should be stockpiled with 10,000∼60,000 liters of concentrate chemical dispersant and small amount of synthetic organic sorbents for possible use.

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Usage Characteristics of Publicly-Available Accidental Release Models (주요 누출사고 예측 모델의 사용 특성 비교)

  • 정수희;윤도영;김영성
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.687-696
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    • 1999
  • Characteristics of four publicly-available accidental release models, ALOHA, SLAB, HGSYSTEM, and DEGADIS, are compared. These models are world-widely used and recently recommended by the Chemical Dispersion and Consequence Assessment(CDCA) Working Group of the United States as models applicable to generally broad safety-basis documentation applicatons. Four release scenarios are assumed by referring to the usage and storage conditions of toxic substances in the field as well as the USEPA model guideline(1993). Sensitivity of impact radius by varying meteorological conditions is tested in typical and worst-case meteorological conditions. The results show that ALOHA generally gives conservative estimates and the results from HGSYSTEM are sensitive to variations in meteorological conditions.

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Study on the Impact-proof Internal Structure Design of a Spent Nuclear Fuel Transport Cask (내충격성을 고려한 사용후연료 수송용기 내부구조물의 설계 연구)

  • Shin, Tae-Myung;Kim, Kap-Sun
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.370-377
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    • 2009
  • A simple preliminary analysis is often useful to check a validity of design alternatives before the detailed analysis phase in the viewpoint of efficiency. This paper describes a preliminary analysis procedure for the selection among basket design candidates for the spent fuel shipping cask of Korean standard nuclear power plant. As the cask should maintain the structural integrity in hypothetical accident condition, the case of 9 m drop is significantly considered as the worst scenario among the accident conditions in structural design viewpoint in this paper. As basket design options, totally four different types are considered and analyzed in the point of structural integrity at drop impact and weldability for fabrication. As a result, an insertion round plate type with densely spaced supports turns out to be the best in both of the viewpoints, though the weld plate type shows a bit more design margin.

A technique for optimally designing fibre-reinforced laminated structures for minimum weight with manufacturing uncertainties accounted for

  • Walker, M.
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.253-262
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    • 2007
  • A methodology to design symmetrically laminated fibre-reinforced structures under transverse loads for minimum weight, with manufacturing uncertainty in the ply angle, is described. The ply angle and the ply thickness are the design variables, and the Tsai-Wu failure criteria is the design constraint implemented. It is assumed that the probability of any tolerance value occurring within the tolerance band, compared with any other, is equal, and thus the approach is a worst-case scenario approach. The finite element method, based on Mindlin plate and shell theory, is implemented, and thus effects like bending-twisting coupling are accounted for. The Golden Section method is used as the search algorithm, but the methodology is flexible enough to allow any appropriate finite element formulation, search algorithm and failure criterion to be substituted. In order to demonstrate the procedure, laminated plates with varying aspect ratios and boundary conditions are optimally designed and compared.