• 제목/요약/키워드: Windstorm. prediction

검색결과 6건 처리시간 0.018초

진화적 비선형 보정 및 SVM 분류에 의한 강풍 특보 예측 기법 (Evolutionary Nonlinear Compensation and Support Vector Machine Based Prediction of Windstorm Advisory)

  • 서기성
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제66권12호
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    • pp.1799-1803
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    • 2017
  • This paper introduces the prediction methods of windstorm advisory using GP nonlinear compensation and SVM. The existing special report prediction is not specialized for strong wind, such as windstorm, because it is based on the wide range of predicted values for wind speed from low to high. In order to improve the performance of strong wind reporting prediction, a method that can efficiently classify boundaries of strong wind is necessary. First, evolutionary nonlinear regression based compensation technique is applied to obtain more accurate values of prediction for wind speed using UM data. Based on the prediction wind speed, the windstorm advisory is determined. Second, SVM method is applied to classify directly using the data of UM predictors and windstorm advisory. Above two methods are compared to evaluate of the performances for the windstorm data in Jeju Island in South Korea. The data of 2007-2009, 2011 year is used for training, and 2012 year is used for test.

역전층이 영동 지역의 활강풍에 미치는 영향에 관한 민감도 수치실험 연구 (A Numerical Sensitivity Experiment of the Downslope Windstorm over the Yeongdong Region in Relation to the Inversion layer of Temperature)

  • 이재규;인소라
    • 대기
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.331-344
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    • 2009
  • A sensitivity study has been performed using ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) version 5.2.10 in a downslope windstorm case of 12-13 February 2006. The purpose of this study was to find out the role of the inversion layer of temperature mainly in relation to the strength of the downslope winds over the Yeongdong region located downstream of the Taebaek mountains. Under the conditions of N (Brunt-$V{\ddot{a}}is{\ddot{a}}la$ frequency)=0.008 and N=0.016, the effects of the presence of the inversion layer, its variation of height of the layer, and the depth of the layer were identified. The sensitivity experiments suggested that the inversion layer effected the downstream wind speed of the mountains under both conditions of N=0.008 and N=0.016, and notably when the inversion layer was located near the mountain crest the downstream wind speed of the mountains was strong (~ $27ms^{-1}$) only under the condition of N=0.016. In addition, when the atmosphere was rather stable (N=0.016) and the depth of the layer was relatively thin (765 m) the downstream wind speed of the mountains was the strongest (~ $30ms^{-1}$) among the sensitivity experiments.

2020 강원영동 공동 입체기상관측 기간 강풍 사례에 대한 관측자료와 수치모델 비교 분석 (Comparative Analysis of Observation and NWP Data of Downslope Windstorm Cases during 3-Dimensional Meteorological Observation Project in Yeongdong Region of Gangwon province, South Korea in 2020)

  • 권순범;박세택
    • 대기
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.395-404
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    • 2021
  • In order to investigate downslope windstorm by using more detailed observation, we observed 6 cases at 3 sites - Inje, Yongpyeong, and Bukgangneung - during "3-D Meteorological Observation Project in Yeongdong region of Gangwon province, South Korea in 2020." The results from analysis of the project data were as follows. First, AWS data showed that a subsidence inversion layer appeared in 800~700 hPa on the windward side and 900~850 hPa on the leeward side. Second, before strong wind occurred, the inversion layer had descended to about 880~800 hPa. Third, with mountain wave breaking, downslope wind was intensified at the height of 2~3 km above sea level. After the downslope wind began to descend, the subsidence inversion layer developed. When the subsidence inversion layer got close to the ground, wind peak occurred. In general, UM (Unified Model) GDAPS (Global Data Assimilation Prediction System) have had negative bias in wind speed around peak area of Taebaek mountain range, and positive bias in that of East Sea coast area. The stronger wind blew, the larger the gap between observed and predicted wind speed by GDAPS became. GDAPS predicted strong p-velocity at 0600 LST 25 Apr 2020 (4th case) and weak p-velocity at 2100 LST 01 Jun 2020 (6th case) on the lee-side of Taebaek mountain range near Yangyang. As hydraulic jump theory was proved, which is known as a mechanism of downslope windstorm in Yeongdong region, it was confirmed that there is a relationship between p-velocity of lee-side and wind speed of eastern slope of Taebaek mountain range.

영동지역 지형성 강풍과 관련된 풍하측 기상요소의 특징 (Characteristics of Meteorological Variables in the Leeward Side associated with the Downslope Windstorm over the Yeongdong Region)

  • 조영준;권태영;최병철
    • 한국지구과학회지
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    • 제36권4호
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    • pp.315-329
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 2005~2010년 기간 동안 영동지역의 지형성 강풍과 관련된 태백산맥 풍하측에서 관측된 기상요소들을 분석하였다. 강풍 사례는 강원지역에서 풍속이 $14ms^{-1}$ 이상인 조건을 이용하여 선정하였다. 강풍 사례는 총 15일로 나타났고, 모두 영동지역에 위치한 속초, 강릉, 동해, 그리고 태백 지역에서 발생하였다. 사례 중 태풍(세 사례) 그리고 영동지역의 대설(두 사례)과 호우(두 사례)와 관련된 7개 사례는 이 연구에서 제외하였다. 8개 강풍 사례를 분석하기 위하여 종관 일기도, 속초 고층 관측, 강릉 수직측풍, 그리고 수치모델 자료를 사용하였다. 선정된 사례는 무강수 혹은 일강수량 1mm 이하의 강수를 보였다. 종관 일기도에서 나타난 지상과 상층의 특징은 기압분포가 한반도를 중심으로 남고북저형을 보였고, 영동지역으로 온도능(warm ridge)이 위치하였다. 역전층(혹은 안정층)과 온도능은 하층 강풍대와 함께 산 정상의 약 1~3 km (925~700 hPa) 고도에 위치하였다. 또한 지역예보시스템에서 분석된 온난핵과 온도능은 산 정상 상공의 850 hPa 등압면 고도에 위치하였고, 이 고도에서 수평 온도 경도는 $0.10{\sim}0.23^{\circ}C\;km^{-1}$로 분석되었다. 이러한 분석 결과는 영동지역 강풍 예보 가이던스로 요약되었다.

Effect of low frequency motion on the performance of a dynamic manual tracking task

  • Burton, Melissa D.;Kwok, Kenny C.S.;Hitchcock, Peter A.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제14권6호
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    • pp.517-536
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    • 2011
  • The assessment of wind-induced motion plays an important role in the development and design of the majority of today's structures that push the limits of engineering knowledge. A vital part of the design is the prediction of wind-induced tall building motion and the assessment of its effects on occupant comfort. Little of the research that has led to the development of the various international standards for occupant comfort criteria have considered the effects of the low-frequency motion on task performance and interference with building occupants' daily activities. It has only recently become more widely recognized that it is no longer reasonable to assume that the level of motion that a tall building undergoes in a windstorm will fall below an occupants' level of perception and little is known about how this motion perception could also impact on task performance. Experimental research was conducted to evaluate the performance of individuals engaged in a manual tracking task while subjected to low level vibration in the frequency range of 0.125 Hz-0.50 Hz. The investigations were carried out under narrow-band random vibration with accelerations ranging from 2 milli-g to 30 milli-g (where 1 milli-g = 0.0098 $m/s^2$) and included a control condition. The frequencies and accelerations simulated are representative of the level of motion expected to occur in a tall building (heights in the range of 100 m -350 m) once every few months to once every few years. Performance of the test subjects with and without vibration was determined for 15 separate test conditions and evaluated in terms of time taken to complete a task and accuracy per trial. Overall, the performance under the vibration conditions did not vary significantly from that of the control condition, nor was there a statistically significant degradation or improvement trend in performance ability as a function of increasing frequency or acceleration.

2020년 2월 8일 영동지역 강설 사례 시 관측과 수치모의 된 바람 분석 (An Analysis of Observed and Simulated Wind in the Snowfall Event in Yeongdong Region on 8 February 2020)

  • 김해민;남형구;김백조;지준범
    • 대기
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.433-443
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    • 2021
  • The wind speed and wind direction in Yeongdong are one of the crucial meteorological factors for forecasting snowfall in this area. To improve the snowfall forecast in Yeongdong region, Yeongdong Extreme Snowfall-Windstorm Experiment, YES-WEX was designed. We examined the wind field variation simulated with Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) using observed wind field during YES-WEX period. The simulated wind speed was overestimated over the East Sea and especially 2 to 4 times in the coastal line. The vertical wind in Yeongdong region, which is a crucial factor in the snowfall forecast, was not well simulated at the low level (850 hPa~1000 hPa) until 12 hours before the forecast. The snowfall distribution was also not accurately simulated. Three hours after the snowfall on the East Sea coast was observed, the snowfall was simulated. To improve the forecast accuracy of snowfall in Yeongdong region, it is important to understand the weather conditions using the observed and simulated data. In the future, data in the northern part of the East Sea and the mountain slope of Taebaek observed from the meteorological aircraft, ship, and drone would help in understanding the snowfall phenomenon and improving forecasts.