• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.49-63
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• 2009

In this study, sub domain of flow was investigated on literature survey, and suggested of the measuring method of web-site flow and its simulation analysis. Constructing of measuring method of flow, and using this method what-if analysis was simulated when several condition changed. Using causal map approach to extract knowledge from web-site domain experts and to derives a causal relationship of knowledge. Specially, in our study, describes method of developing and building causal map, and suggests guide line of this method on practical application. This research results show that web-site flow starts "direct searching" or "interesting of special issue(domain)", and when challenges of web-site were accorded with user's skills web-site flow grows. Further, in the web-site, information searching intention results in increase of user's duration time and experience flow to discovery new interesting issues in this process. If user's web-site of interaction is increased, awareness of environment conditions decreased, finally, user's telepresense results in increased web-site flow. This paper contained thai this method make used of measuring flow in the web-site and developing of practical strategy.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.157-176
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• 2007

Fuzzy cognitive map(FCM) has long been used as an effective way of constructing the human's decision making process explicitly. By taking advantage of this feature, FCM has been extensively used in providing what-if solutions to a wide variety of business decision making problems. In contrast, the goal-seeking analysis mechanism by using the FCM is rarely observed in literature, which remains a research void in the fields of FCM. In this sense, this study proposes a new type of the FCM-based goal-seeking analysis which is based on utilizing the genetic algorithm. Its main recipe lies in the fact that the what-if analysis as well as goal-seeking analysis are enabled very effectively by incorporating the genetic algorithm into the FCM-driven inference process. To prove the empirical validity of the proposed approach, valid questionnaires were gathered from a number of experts on software sales, and analyzed statistically. Results showed that the proposed approach is robust and significant.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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• 1992.09a
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• pp.217-218
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• 1992

S사는 생산량 증대에 따른 물동량 증가에 대비하기 위하여 물류 시스템 개선안을 수립한 수 , 타다성을 검증하기 위해 시뮬레이션 기법을 채택하여 물류관점에서 현행 시스템 및 개선안에 대한 진단을 실시하였다. 컴퓨터 시뮬레이션 기법은 생산공정에 실질적인 물리적 변화를 가하지 않고도 "What-if" 라는 다양한 시나리오를 작성하고 이들에 대한 분석 및 평가를 통하여 그 가능성을 타진하며 최적안을 도출하는데 유용하게 이용되는 도구이다. 본 진단을 통하여 현행 시스템의 문제점을 정량적으로 파악하였다. 그리고, 물류 개선안에 대한 기대효과를 예측하고 발생가능한 문제점을 사전에 도출하여 시행착오를 최소화하는데 기여하고자 하였다.기여하고자 하였다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.6 no.1 s.23
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• pp.73-79
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• 2005

This paper, introduces a Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS III) developed by the author to predict a project completion probability in a certain time. The system integrates deterministic CPM, probabilistic PERT, and stochastic Discrete Event Simulation (DES) scheduling methods into one system. It implements automated statistical analysis methods for computing the minimum number of simulation runs, the significance of the difference between independent simulations, and the confidence interval for the mean project duration as well as sensitivity analysis method in What-if analyzer component. The SPSS 111 gives the several benefits to researchers in that it (1) complements PERT and Monte Carlo simulation by using stochastic activity durations via a web based JAVA simulation over the Internet, (2) provides a way to model a project network having different probability distribution functions, (3) implements statistical analyses method which enable to produce a reliable prediction of the probability of completing a project in a specified time, and (4) allows researchers to compare the outcome of CPM, PERT and DES under different variability or skewness in the activity duration data.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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• 2001.05a
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• pp.143-143
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• 2001

조선 산업에서의 이익 극대화를 위해서는, 공기 단축을 통한 매출 증대, 주어진 생산 자원(인력, 설비 등)의 효율적인 이용을 통한 생산비 절감이 필수적인 사안이다. 다시 말하면, 효율적인 자원의 이용으로 선박의 건조 공기를 줄임으로써 조선 산업에서의 이익 극대화를 도모할 수 있고 이는 효과적인 생산 계획과 관리를 통해 얻을 수 있다. 조선 산업에서의 생산 계획과 관리는 내업, 선행, 선내 등 선박 건조의 전 과정에서 이루어지고 있는데, 조선 산업은 타 산업에 비해 환경변화에 따른 단기간의 불확실성은 비교적 적은 반면에, 가공, 절단, 조립, 의장, 도장, 선행탑재, 탑재, 안벽 작업 등 다단계 제조 프로세스가 장기간에 걸쳐 상당히 복잡하게 구성되어 있다. 또한, 유연하게 적용할 수 있는 인적자원과 공정순서, 그리고 각종 시간적 공간적 자원 제약 등으로 인하여 효과적이고 일관된 생산 계획을 신속하게 수립하기가 어려울 뿐만 아니라, 주문 생산 방식이기 때문에 정확한 일정계획 데이터의 생성도 어려운 실정이다. 본 연구는, 조선의 혁신적인 생산관리 능력 향상을 지원하기 위한 "조선 통합 생산계획 시스템 개발" 에 관련된 연구이다. 본 연구에서는 조선 생산계획에 적합한 일정계획 방법론 및 엔진 소프트웨어를 활용하고 총체적인 생산계획 및 일정계획 업무의 개념 재정립을 통하여, 통합 최적화를 실시간에 지원하는 조선 최적 일정계획 시스템 구축에 궁극적인 목적을 두고 있다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 조선 프로세스와 일정계획 업무규칙을 분석하고 이를 바탕으로 "조선 최적 일정계획 시스템"을 개발하였다. 조선 최적 일정계획 시스템은 블록, PE, 탑재, 선내 단계의 일정계획 최적화와 What-if Simulation을 지원하기 위하여 ILOG Solver/scheduler로 구현하였으며, 구현된 시스템에 대해 실제 계획에서 사용하는 데이터를 대상으로 다양한 최적화 기능에 대한 실험을 실시하였다. 실제 데이터를 이용한 실험결과, 풀이시간과 최적해 측면 모두에서 비교적 만족할 만한 결과를 보여주었다.교적 만족할 만한 결과를 보여주었다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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• 1999.10a
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• pp.217-217
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• 1999

The main objective of this study is to simulate the design and operational policies of the assembly shop of an automotive plant for planning purposes and to find possible improvements. The simulation study was used to answer the following questions: How does the sequence affect the daily throughput\ulcorner What are the bottlenecks to the assembly lines in a given scenario\ulcorner A Simulation model was developed in accordance with the objective of this study. The model incorporates detailed workstation logic to accurately model downtime results through the use of a pull cord system. It is written with SIMAN. The discrete event feature of SIMAN does not adequately model the conveyor systems of the asembly shop. As a result, a few subroutines were added to the SIMAN modeling structures to mimic the operations of the assembly shop. Use of the model uncovered attractive improvement opportunities, such as a tremendous gain in annual volume if four additional spaces were added to a between-line buffer.

• 사회경제평론
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• no.38
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• pp.9-49
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• 2012

Our luck is brute if we cannot choose or control it and, thus, we are not responsible for it. Our luck is optional if we can choose or control it and, thus, we are responsible for it. Egalitarian justice at least demands brute luck be fully neutralized. If, however, brute luck is not fully neutralized and possibly accumulated, what will happen to the Gini coefficients as a measure of inequality due to brute luck? By simulating brute luck under various combinations of the rate of accumulation and the level of, what I call, leximin-redistribution, I obtain the Gini coefficients for the distribution of the accumulated and, then, redistributed brute luck. The level of the leximin-redistribution determines the negative or positive relation between the rate of accumulation and the Gini coefficient. The minimum leximin-redistribution level that generates the negative relation between the rate of accumulation and the Gini coefficient, depends on the characteristics of the starting-point distribution of brute luck. The sooner the leximin-redistribution is ushered in, the lower the minimum level becomes. The so-called 'Growth First Redistribution Later' policy may hurt victims of brute bad luck.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.144-150
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• 2009

This study examines how much the radiation dose rate around it varies if a crack occurs on the spent nuclear fuel rod. The spent nuclear fuel rod to be examined is that of Kori unit 3&4. The source terms are evaluated using the ORIGEN-ARP that is part of the version 5.1 of the SCALE package. The radiation dose rate is assessed using the TORT. To check if the structure of a fuel rod is appropriately modeled in the TORT calculation, the calculation results by the TORT are compared with those by the ANISN for the same case. From the code simulation, it is known that if a crack occurs on the spent nuclear fuel rod, the neutron dose rate varies depending on what material is the crack filled with, but the gamma dose rate varies irrespective of type of the material that the crack is filled with.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1996.04a
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• pp.213-216
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• 1996

R'||'&'||'D project management is a process of decisions concerned with the achievement of goals of objectives. Especially, defense R'||'&'||'D project planning is the key in the successfull management of defense development. The defense project managers are constantly having to perform "what if\ulcorner" exercise, such as what if the project is extended out for an additional cost\ulcorner In this reserch, we developed a schedule-cost analysis model based upon Critical Path Method(CPM) and Venture Evaluation and Review Technique(VERT) for schedule-cost trade off analysis defense R'||'&'||'D projects. In the first step, a deterministic model is developed as a heuristic which deterministic model is developed as a heuristic which determines the schedule extension and reduction cost as a function desired schedule. In the second step, a stochastic network simulation model is developed to analyse the project risk (sucess and failure). The expected time and cost can be determined for desired schedule under the assumptions of stochastic arc data (time and cost) with a various precedence relationships. This model provides the defense R'||'&'||'D managers with an estimated and expected cost for curtailing or extending a project a given amount of time. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methods, a heuristic and stochastic networks simulations, have been demonstrated through examples.

• 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.957-962
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• 2008

We propose a model for the line expansion problem in the AMOLED (Active Matrix Organic Light Emitting Diodes) industry, which now faces market uncertainty: for example, changing customer needs, technological development path, etc. We focus on the optimal investment time and size of the AMOLED production lines. In particular, employed here is the ROV (Real Options Valuation) model to show how to capture the value of line expansion and to determine the optimal investment time. The ROV framework provides a systematic procedure to quantify an expected outcome of a flexible decision which is not possible in the frame of the traditional NPV (Net Present Value) approach. Furthermore, we also use Monte Carlo simulation to measure the uncertainty associated with the line expansion decision; Monte Carlo simulation estimates the volatility of a decision alternative. Lastly, we present a scenario planning to be conducted for what-if analysis of the ROV model.