• 제목/요약/키워드: What if Scenario

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시뮬레이션을 이용한 JIT와 소 Lot 생산공정분석

  • 서대석
    • 한국시뮬레이션학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국시뮬레이션학회 1992년도 제2회 정기총회 및 추계학술 발표회 발표논문 초록
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    • pp.14-14
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    • 1992
  • 대 Lot 생산 계획은 기종변경 시간을 최소화함으로써 생산성을 높여 원가를 절감할 수 있으나 수요의 변화에 능동적으로 대처할 수 없으며 잦은 생산 Schedule 변동에 의하여 재 품절이 발생하여 Main Line이 정지되고 재공품 재고의 과다 발생으로 Lead Time이 길어지고 완제품 재고가 증가하는 등의 문제점을 내포하고 있다. JIT 시스템은 필요한 때에 물건을 필요한 양 만큼 생산제조 한다는 이상적인 생산 개념을 실현하기 위하여 평준화 생산 시스템, KANBAN시스템, 소 Lot 생산시스템 등의 하위 시스템으로 구성된 생산시스템이다. JIT 시스템은 Pull Type 시스템으로 생산의 흐름을 원활히 하고 공정을 개선하여 재공품 재고, 납기 및 생산준비 시간의 단축을 도모하여 Lot의 크기는 되도록 작게하는 소 Lot 평준화 생산 방식을 추구하기 때문에 수요의 변화에 능동적으로 대처할 수 있으며 자재 납품 업체의 부하를 평준화하여 자재 품절을 방지함으로써 생산 효율을 높일 수 있다. JIT 시스템의 이러한 효과를 계량화하여 가시적으로 보여주기 위하여 Computer simulation 기법을 도입하였다. 이 기법은 생산 Line에 물리적 변화를 가하지 않고 Model 사용자들이‘What if’라는 Scenario를 작성하여 제안된 시스템에 대한 결론을 추론하는 것이 가능하기 때문에 문제 해결에 효율적인 Tool이라 할 수 있다.

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증례 '금지된 언어와 침묵을 넘어서'를 통해 본 정신신체화 환자와의 소통 (Communication with Psychosomatic Patient: With a Clinical Vignette "When Words Are Unspeakable: A Bridge Beyond the Silence")

  • 장은진
    • 정신분석
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.72-82
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    • 2018
  • What should a therapist do if the patient has lost the ability to speak in sessions? How should the therapist understand and approach this 'deadly silence'? Psychosomatic patients have poor ability to mentalize their experience, so they create a 'shunt' from emotional experience to body bypassing symbolic sphere. This makes psychosomatic patients vulnerable to expressing their emotions in words. With the case vignette 'When words are unspeakable: a bridge beyond the silence' written by Wirth in a book "From soma to symbol" we observe how psychosomatic pathology arises, from inappropriate mirroring and poor containment; and how this escalates into a vicious cycle of sin and punishment in the patient's conscience. This conscience scenario imprisons a talented and creative mind in a dark, silent place, wherein symbols and words are forbidden. This seemingly impossible task of providing silent patients with a 'talking cure' finds breakthrough with containment, and transformative thinking using therapists' reveries.

Spatiotemporal Impact Assessments of Highway Construction: Autonomous SWAT Modeling

  • Choi, Kunhee;Bae, Junseo
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.294-298
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    • 2015
  • In the United States, the completion of Construction Work Zone (CWZ) impact assessments for all federally-funded highway infrastructure improvement projects is mandated, yet it is regarded as a daunting task for state transportation agencies, due to a lack of standardized analytical methods for developing sounder Transportation Management Plans (TMPs). To circumvent these issues, this study aims to create a spatiotemporal modeling framework, dubbed "SWAT" (Spatiotemporal Work zone Assessment for TMPs). This study drew a total of 43,795 traffic sensor reading data collected from heavily trafficked highways in U.S. metropolitan areas. A multilevel-cluster-driven analysis characterized traffic patterns, while being verified using a measurement system analysis. An artificial neural networks model was created to predict potential 24/7 traffic demand automatically, and its predictive power was statistically validated. It is proposed that the predicted traffic patterns will be then incorporated into a what-if scenario analysis that evaluates the impact of numerous alternative construction plans. This study will yield a breakthrough in automating CWZ impact assessments with the first view of a systematic estimation method.

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예산 및 도로 유지관리 : 저교통량 도로의 포장 변경을 위한 추가연구의 필요성 (Tight Budgets and Roadway Maintenance: The Need for Further Study of the Conversion/Reconversion Scenario for Low-Volume Roadways)

  • 김현환;;;이순제;이문섭
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2015
  • PURPOSES : This paper presents a description of the current issues facing road managers regarding the surface-type conversion of low-volume roads for cost savings. METHODS: The paper reviews previous works conducted toward this end, acknowledges gaps in the current research, and lays out what information is needed for further studies. RESULTS : If the cost to maintain an unsurfaced road is less than the cost of maintaining a surfaced road, then there is potential for cost savings for the management agency. However, the problem is bigger than simply maintaining the roads that already exist. If unsurfaced roads prove to be more economical than surfaced roads, then the cost to convert from a surfaced to an unsurfaced roadway, and vice versa, when necessary, must also be examined. CONCLUSIONS : No other studies have addressed the un-surfacing of a road for cost savings, and it is therefore unknown whether substantial savings can be realistically obtained by converting from a surfaced to an unsurfaced road. To determine whether a conversion policy would be a viable option, additional data and research are needed.

FINITE SPEED OF PROPAGATION IN DEGENERATE EINSTEIN BROWNIAN MOTION MODEL

  • HEVAGE, ISANKA GARLI;IBRAGIMOV, AKIF
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.108-120
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    • 2022
  • We considered qualitative behaviour of the generalization of Einstein's model of Brownian motion when the key parameter of the time interval of free jump degenerates. Fluids will be characterised by number of particles per unit volume (density of fluid) at point of observation. Degeneration of the phenomenon manifests in two scenarios: a) flow of the fluid, which is highly dispersing like a non-dense gas and b) flow of fluid far away from the source of flow, when the velocity of the flow is incomparably smaller than the gradient of the density. First, we will show that both types of flows can be modeled using the Einstein paradigm. We will investigate the question: What features will particle flow exhibit if the time interval of the free jump is inverse proportional to the density and its gradient ? We will show that in this scenario, the flow exhibits localization property, namely: if at some moment of time t0 in the region, the gradient of the density or density itself is equal to zero, then for some T during time interval [t0, t0 + T] there is no flow in the region. This directly links to Barenblatt's finite speed of propagation property for the degenerate equation. The method of the proof is very different from Barenblatt's method and based on the application of Ladyzhenskaya - De Giorgi iterative scheme and Vespri - Tedeev technique. From PDE point of view it assumed that solution exists in appropriate Sobolev type of space.

Service Quality Design through a Smart Use of Conjoint Analysis

  • Barone, Stefano;Lombardo, Alberto
    • International Journal of Quality Innovation
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.34-42
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    • 2004
  • In the traditional use of conjoint analysis, in order to evaluate the relative importance of several elements composing a service, interviewed customers are asked to express their judgement about different scenarios (specific combinations of elements). In order to reduce the number of possible scenarios, design of experiments methodology is usually exploited. Previous experiences show that, even a limited number of proposed scenarios cause difficulty in answering for the interviewed customer if the scenarios differ for elements of very low interest to him/her. Consequently, a high rate of abandon of the interview has been observed. In this study it is assumed that a service can be decomposed in several improvable elements and/or enriched with new "optionals". In both cases, what under study is assumed to be a set of dichotomous attributes. For each of these attributes, its marginal contribution to customer satisfaction has to be modelled and estimated. To obtain the required information, an opportune questionnaire is proposed to a sample of interviewed customers. An interviewing procedure consisting in a customer driven design of scenarios is followed, starting from the full-optional scenario and eliminating one by one the less satisfying elements. For each interviewed customer, a ranking of attributes is so obtained. Then, by asking the interviewed customer to evaluate on a metric scale the scenarios he previously selected, a rating of attributes can also be obtained. A case study conducted in collaboration with a public transportation company is presented. Contrarily to previous experiences, the abandon rate proved extremely reduced.y reduced.

An interpretation of potential catastrophic collision at P/2010 A2

  • Kim, Yoonyoung;Ishiguro, Masateru;Michikami, Tatsuhiro;Nakamura, Akiko M.
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제41권1호
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    • pp.49.1-49.1
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    • 2016
  • Solar System has evolved with numerous collisions among asteroids. Ancient catastrophic collisions of large parent bodies led the formation of asteroid families and relevant dustband structures up to the present day, and it would be interesting to address a question - "what happens if an asteroid collides with another asteroid?" Recent discoveries of "active asteroids" in the main-belt have attracted interest for their potential to witness a catastrophic collision in the current Solar System. So far, however, there is no direct evidence for catastrophic collision on active asteroids while several objects have been confirmed for other mechanisms (e.g., 596 Scheila for impact cratering, P/2013 R3 and P/2013 P5 for rotational breakup). The most potential candidate for catastrophic collision could be a sub-km active asteroid P/2010 A2, which is still controversial on its driving mechanism, but if confirmed, would have made P/2010 A2 the unique example of catastrophic collision on the current main asteroid belt. In this presentation, we revisit all of archival data of P/2010 A2 in a combination with our own observation using Subaru/Suprime-Cam on 2011 June, where we have a great benefit of a large orbital coverage. We found a grain size dependence of dust ejection velocity from P/2010 A2 (a power-law size distribution with an index of k~ -1/10), which is favorable to a catastrophic disruption scenario in agreement with laboratory impact experiments. At this conference, we plan to provide our understanding of the morphology of P/2010 A2 through a perspective of catastrophic collision.

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Sustainability and Challenges of Climate Change Mitigation through Urban Reforestation - A Review

  • Ogunbode, Timothy O.;Asifat, Janet T.
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • 제37권1호
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2021
  • The realities of Climate change and its untold implications on the livelihood of man are no longer new worldwide. In attempts to subdue the negative implications of Climate change scenario globally, several measures have being suggested and being put in place. One of such measures is urban reforestation especially in the developing nations where forest resources have extremely and uncontrollably exploited. Most of cities in developing nations are almost devoid of regularly maintained trees for whatever purpose. Thus, the enormous roles which urban tree performs are lacked in most cities. In order to subdue excessive heat in cities arising from exposure of urban land areas urban reforestation exercise needs to be embarked upon. The investigation was carried out through desk studies and review of relevant publications to examine what it entails to have a sustainable reforestation programme in cities. The study revealed that several factors need to be taken into consideration if sustainable urban reforestation will be achieved, especially in developing countries. These factors include urban soil nutrients status investigation, appropriate tree type study, public perception about the tree types, relevant legal instrument to achieve successful reforestation exercise in cities among others were found to be salient to this exercise. Urban reforestation has enormous potentials to subdue Climate change consequences, including urban renewal if adequate provision is made for its sustainability, especially in developing countries. To ensure this is realized it is recommended that relevant ministry/agency could be put in charge for the maintaining, cutting and replanting of urban tree and all that are involved in urban tree sustainability.

영화산업에서의 마케팅 전략 : 투자 결정 게임 모형을 중심으로 (Marketing Strategies in the Film Industry: Investment Decision Game Model)

  • 황희중
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제13권10호
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    • pp.109-114
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The movie market has the characteristics of being a perfectly competitive market as well as a pure monopolistic market at the same time. This is because there are competitors in the industry but prices, although not fixed, have not changed a lot. Price competition may not have spread, but the competition is focused on artistic value, and the degree of box office success is most important. The artistic value is determined in the course of the production process. However, the degree of box office success is dependent upon the marketing manager. The marketing strategy represents the difference in the standard or quality of the movie. Inherently, the marketing manager adopts the entertainment strategy based on the quality of the foundation of the completed movie. At this time, the marketing manager knows the pertinent information (high quality/low quality) regarding the movie. This research study tries to reveal what should be the reasonable movie marketing expense, dependent on the quality of the movie. Research design, data, and methodology - Using a game scenario with different market players, the goal of the research analysis is to find out the following. First, the marketing expense is determined to maximize the profits after film production. Second, after the production costs are already committed, the manufacturer gets to choose the marketing level. At this time, there will be a profit maximization point, considering the competition. The premise of the research is as follows: if it is a good movie of quality, positive word of mouth increasing the audience continuously slows down the speed of the demand curve. If the movie quality is bad, the negative word of mouth decreasing the audience gradually hastens the speed of the demand curve. On the marketing side, when the manufacturer invests heavily in the marketing expense of the movie, consumer expectations increase to drive up the audience numbers. On the other hand, it is difficult to improve the profits excessively. When the manufacturer invests in marketing a little bit, the marketing expense is only relatively committed, therefore a lot of demand cannot be gained. Results - If a fixed market share is in a competitive situation, a low quality manufacturer expends relatively more marketing expense. If the situation assumes two manufacturers spend the same for the cost of production, the high quality manufacturer takes more profit. If the manufacturer expends less marketing budget to save costs, the optimum profit cannot be achieved since the other party (opponent) grabs the initial market share. Conclusions - In conclusion, investment is essential for market share to increase. We must refrain from a zero-sum game and have models where the game participants pursue the creative profits together. In the current film industry, there is the dominating logic of winner and loser but we have to create a film industry environment where the participants can be altogether satisfied and live together.

Superhighway 연속곡선의 설계 방침에 대한 연구 (Study on Design Principle of Reverse Curve in Superhighway)

  • 김성규;김상엽;최재성;민동찬;장영수;신준수
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제16권6호
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    • pp.169-179
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : This study is to conduct the research on the design principle for the driver's safety and comfort in installing consecutive curves of superhighway. METHODS : Superhighway does not currently exist in domestic area. Thus, this study is conducted by collecting driving behavior usage of 30 people who are involved in the members of the virtual driving simulation. By identifying the distribution characteristics of each scenario in ANOVA & Tukey Test, the distribution are categorized into three groups. RESULTS : In the case of Group A in Section 3 (R2 entry part), lane departure exceeds the safety standard, which means to be risky condition. And then in the case of Group B and C, the lane departure values applying theoretical formula was evenly distributed compared to the proven values. CONCLUSIONS : Based on the result, the continuous curve design principles at superhighway should follow three standards as follow. First, an additional linear part needs to be inserted between two curves. Second, what if inserting the linear part is difficult, it would be better to insert a curve more than 2,000m. Third, R1/R2 ratio should not be over two. This design primarily aims to the safety of the operator. Such road alignment also meets the expectations of drivers, thus, it may help drivers to be compatible and amenable while driving continuous curve in superhighway.