• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull distribution

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Relationships on Magnitude and Frequency of Freshwater Discharge and Rainfall in the Altered Yeongsan Estuary (영산강 하구의 방류와 강우의 규모 및 빈도 상관성 분석)

  • Rhew, Ho-Sang;Lee, Guan-Hong
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.223-237
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    • 2011
  • The intermittent freshwater discharge has an critical influence upon the biophysical environments and the ecosystems of the Yeongsan Estuary where the estuary dam altered the continuous mixing of saltwater and freshwater. Though freshwater discharge is controlled by human, the extreme events are mainly driven by the heavy rainfall in the river basin, and provide various impacts, depending on its magnitude and frequency. This research aims to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of extreme freshwater discharges, and to establish the magnitude-frequency relationships between basin-wide rainfall and freshwater inflow. Daily discharge and daily basin-averaged rainfall from Jan 1, 1997 to Aug 31, 2010 were used to determine the relations between discharge and rainfall. Consecutive daily discharges were grouped into independent events using well-defined event-separation algorithm. Partial duration series were extracted to obtain the proper probability distribution function for extreme discharges and corresponding rainfall events. Extreme discharge events over the threshold 133,656,000 $m^3$ count up to 46 for 13.7y years, following the Weibull distribution with k=1.4. The 3-day accumulated rain-falls which occurred one day before peak discharges (1day-before-3day -sum rainfall), are determined as a control variable for discharge, because their magnitude is best correlated with that of the extreme discharge events. The minimum value of the corresponding 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall, 50.98mm is initially set to a threshold for the selection of discharge-inducing rainfall cases. The number of 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall groups after selection, however, exceeds that of the extreme discharge events. The canonical discriminant analysis indicates that water level over target level (-1.35 m EL.) can be useful to divide the 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall groups into discharge-induced and non-discharge ones. It also shows that the newly-set threshold, 104mm, can just separate these two cases without errors. The magnitude-frequency relationships between rainfall and discharge are established with the newly-selected lday-before-3day-sum rainfalls: $D=1.111{\times}10^8+1.677{\times}10^6{\overline{r_{3day}}$, (${\overline{r_{3day}}{\geqq}104$, $R^2=0.459$), $T_d=1.326T^{0.683}_{r3}$, $T_d=0.117{\exp}[0.0155{\overline{r_{3day}}]$, where D is the quantity of discharge, ${\overline{r_{3day}}$ the 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall, $T_{r3}$ and $T_d$, are respectively return periods of 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall and freshwater discharge. These relations provide the framework to evaluate the effect of freshwater discharge on estuarine flow structure, water quality, responses of ecosystems from the perspective of magnitude and frequency.

Reliability Analysis of Wave Overtopping over a Seawall (호안에서의 월파에 대한 신뢰성 해석)

  • Oh Jung-Eun;Suh Kyung-Duck;Kweon Hyuck-Min
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 2006
  • A Level 3 reliability analysis has been performed for wave run-up and overtopping on a sloping seawall. A Monte-Carlo simulation was performed considering the uncertainties of various variables affecting the wave overtopping event. The wave overtopping probability was evaluated from the individual wave run-up by using the wave-by-wave method, while the mean overtopping rate was calculated directly from the significant wave height. Using the calculated overtopping probability and mean overtopping rate, the maximum overtopping volume was also calculated on the assumption of two-parameter Weibull distribution of individual wave overtopping volume. In addition, by changing wave directions, depths, and structure slopes, their effects on wave overtopping were analyzed. It was found that, when the variability of wave directions is considered or the water depth decreases toward shore, wave height become smaller due to wave refraction, which yields smaller mean overtopping rate, overtopping probability and maximum overtopping volume. For the same mean overtopping rate, the expected overtopping probability increases and the expected maximum overtopping volume decreases as approaching toward shore inside surfzone.

An Analysis of Wind Energy Resources using Synoptic Observational Data in North Korea (종관 바람 관측 자료를 이용한 북한 지역의 풍력자원 분석)

  • Yun, Jun-Hee;Seo, Eun-Kyoung;Park, Young-San;Kim, Hak-Seong
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.225-233
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    • 2010
  • Wind power density distribution over the North Korea territory was investigated by using 30-year wind observations at 27 meteorological stations. The mean annual wind power density over North Korea turned out to be 58.6W/$m^2$, which corresponds to the wind power class of 1. The wind power density shows a seasonal variation, having the highest density in spring and the lowest in summer. In particular, the wind power density in summer is about a half of that in spring. The diurnal variation of the wind power density shows that the highest and lowest densities occur in the afternoon and between 3 and 6 am in local time, respectively. The most potential wind energy generation regions are the Gaema Plateau in the central region, the northeast part of Hamgyeongbuk-do, the south coast of Pyongan-do and the west coast of Hwanghae-do. The mean annual wind power density in Changjin is 151.2W/$m^2$, which is equivalent to the class of 3. In Ryongyon, the annual mean wind power density is 102.4W/$m^2$, which belongs to the class of 2.

Experimental Study of the Effect of Shortening of Life of Tapered Roller Bearings when Subjected to Excessive Axial Pre-Load (과다 예압을 받는 테이퍼롤러 베어링의 수명단축효과에 대한 실험적 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Won;Kim, Hyoung-Eui;Kim, Jong-Ock;Sim, Yang-Jin;Jung, Won-Wook
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.34 no.9
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    • pp.1161-1166
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    • 2010
  • Tapered roller bearings are core components of rotating machine parts and are simultaneously subjected to axial and radial loads. Life-shortening effect was particularly evident in the case of tapered roller bearings used in the input and output shafts of transmission; this shortening of life was a result of excessive axial pre-load, which is common in the transmission assembly line. In this study, we derived an equation for evaluating the life of tapered roller bearings subjected to excessive pre-load by using accelerated life test data. The DOE(Design Of Experiment) method and FEA(Finite Element Analysis) was used for determining the condition for performing an accelerated life test. This equation for evaluating the service life of the bearings was derived by analyzing the Weibull distribution of the test results. Using the derived equation the life evaluated was 6-7 times longer than that evaluated by the conventional $L_{10}$ bearing-life equation. The results of this study will be helpful in predicting the life of tapered roller bearings subjected to excessive pre-load and in designing reliable rotating machines.

Test methodology of acceleration life test on feeder cable assembly (Feeder Cable Assembly의 가속수명시험법 개발)

  • Han, Hyun Kak
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.62-68
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    • 2016
  • The feeder cable assembly is an automotive part used for telecommunication. If it malfunctions, the control and safety of the automobile can be put at risk. ALT (Accelerated Life Testing) is a testing process for products in which they are subjected to conditions (stress, strain, temperatures, etc.) in excess of their normal service parameters in an attempt to uncover faults and potential modes of failure in a short amount of time. Failure is caused by defects in the design, process, quality, or application of the part, and these defects are the underlying causes of failure or which initiate a process leading to failure. Thermal shock occurs when a thermal gradient causes different parts of an object to expand by different amounts. Thermal shock testing is performed to determine the ability of parts and components to withstand sudden changes in temperature. In this research, the main causes of failure of the feeder cable assembly were snapping, shorting and electro-pressure resistance failure. Using the Coffin-Manson model for ALT, the normal conditions were from Tmax = $80^{\circ}C$ to Tmin = $-40^{\circ}C$, the accelerated testing conditions were from Tmax = $120^{\circ}C$ to Tmin = $-60^{\circ}C$, the AF (Acceleration Factor) was 2.25 and the testing time was reduced from 1,000 cycles to 444 cycles. Using the Bxlife test, the number of samples was 5, the required life was B0.04%.10years, in the acceleration condition, 747 cycles were obtained. After the thermal shock test under different conditions, the feeder cable assembly was examined by a network analyzer and compared with the Weibull distribution modulus parameter. The results obtained showed good results in acceleration life test mode. For the same reliability rate, the testing time was decreased by a quarter using ALT.

Feasibility of Domestic Yellow Poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera) Dimension Lumber for Structural Uses (국산 백합나무 구조용 제재목의 이용가능성 평가)

  • Lim, Jin-Ah;Oh, Jung-Kwon;Yeo, Hwan-Myeong;Lee, Jun-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.470-479
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    • 2010
  • In this study, the visual grading based on the visual characteristics and structural timber bending test were conducted for domestic yellow poplar dimension lumber. Structural performance of domestic yellow poplar dimension lumber was conducted through the evaluation of strength and stiffness. Visual grading rule of yellow poplar dimension lumber did not exist in Korea. Visual grading of yellow poplar dimension lumber was performed according to the NSLB (Northern Softwood Lumber Bureau) standard grading rules including several hardwood dimension lumber. The allowable bending stress was calculated from the results of a visual grading. Compared with NDS (National Design Specification), the yellow poplar dimension lumber showed enough strength for structural uses. In addition, the visual grading was performed according to the KFRI (Korea Forest Research Institute) grading rule to calculated allowable bending stress and to evaluated the feasibility. The yellow poplar was classified into the pine groups by the KFRI criteria regulated by specific gravity. Allowable bending stress based on weibull distribution had became highly than KFRI criteria, as No. 1 (10.0 MPa), No. 2 (7.4 MPa) and No. 3 (4.1 MPa). And the availability of yellow poplar dimension lumber for structural uses had been confirmed. The Modulus of Elasticity (MOE) of domestic yellow poplar dimension lumber had not met the NDS and KFRI criteria. However, for the use of domestic yellow poplar, average values of MOE which obtained through this test were suggested as design value for domestic yellow poplar. Design values were supposed No. 1, 2 (9,000 MPa) and No. 3 (8,000 MPa).

A Linear Change of Leakage Current and Insulation Resistance of 22 kV Cables (22 kV 케이블의 누설전류 및 절연저항의 선형적 변화)

  • Um, Kee-Hong;Lee, Kwan-Woo
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.169-173
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    • 2015
  • This study is to predict the life exponent by measuring, over 7 years, the insulation resistance of high-voltage cables in 22 kV operation for 13 years. We found out the lifetime index in order to determine the time-dependent trend of deteriorating performance of power cables. The insulation resistances decreased according to elapsed time. We found that: the initial measurements of the cable systems were in agreement with the deterioration properties of the Arrhenius Law. By analyzing the life curve of the cable system, we also verified that the value of the life exponent (n) in the v-t characteristics defined by Weibull distribution has values from 10 to 11. When designing the cable system, the initial value of life exponent was chosen as 9 without any grounding. We have verified that the theoretical grounding based on the design safety of n=9 was actually the best one available. In the short term, we apply our research result to the diagnosis and evaluation of the power cables. In the long run, however, we plan to reduce the cost of the installation and management of cable systems in operation at power stations.

Development of Cut-in Lane Changing Model Based on Observed Driver's Behavior in Uninterrupted Traffic Flow (연속교통류에서의 끼어들기 행태 분석 및 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Kyung-Hee;Chang, Myung-Soon;Kim, Jin-Tae;Kim, Eung-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.145-157
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    • 2004
  • Microscopic freeway simulation models project the uncertain values of performance measures for subject traffic conditions by explaining drivers' driving behavior with lane changing and car-following models. However, the existing lane changing models are limited to gap acceptance oriented passive behavior of drivers and not able to capture more-or-less aggressive driving behavior(e.g. cut-in lane changing) ordinarily obseved in field. This paper suggests the definition of cut-inlane changing and presents its characteristics based on the findings from two different freeway on- and off-ramp sections. In addition, this paper proposes a new lane changing model capable of handling both passive and active drivers' driving behavior for better performance of simulations. The proposed lane changing model was tested with Hanyang Simulatin (HYTSIM), a microscopic freeway simulation program developed for this study. The HYTSIM simulation results reflecting the performance of the proposed lane changing model were compared against the field data. The test results showed that the distribution of gaps collected when vehicles change lanes were statistically identical to the field data at 95% confidence level.

Microstructure, Tensile Strength and Probabilistic Fatigue Life Evaluation of Gray Cast Iron (회주철의 미세구조와 인장거동 분석 및 확률론적 피로수명평가)

  • Sung, Yong Hyeon;Han, Seung-Wook;Choi, Nak-Sam
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.41 no.8
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    • pp.721-728
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    • 2017
  • High-grade gray cast iron (HCI350) was prepared by adding Cr, Mo and Cu to the gray cast iron (GC300). Their microstructure, mechanical properties and fatigue strength were studied. Cast iron was made from round bar and plate-type castings, and was cut and polished to measure the percentage of each microstructure. The size of flake graphite decreased due to additives, while the structure of high density pearlite increased in volume percentage improving the tensile strength and fatigue strength. Based on the fatigue life data obtained from the fatigue test results, the probability - stress - life (P-S-N) curve was calculated using the 2-parameter Weibull distribution to which the maximum likelihood method was applied. The P-S-N curve showed that the fatigue strength of HCI350 was significantly improved and the dispersion of life data was lower than that of GC300. However, the fatigue life according to fatigue stress alleviation increased further. Data for reliability life design was presented by quantitatively showing the allowable stress value for the required life cycle number using the calculated P-S-N curve.

Life assessment of monitoring piezoelectric sensor under high temperature at high-level nuclear waste repository (고준위방사성폐기물 처분장 고온 환경 조건에 대한 모니터링용 피에조 센서의 수명 평가)

  • Changhee Park;Hyun-Joong Hwang;Chang-Ho Hong;Jin-Seop Kim;Gye-Chun Cho
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.509-523
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    • 2023
  • The high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository is exposed to complex environmental conditions consisting of high temperature, high humidity, and radiation, resulting in structural deterioration. Therefore, structural health monitoring is essential, and piezo sensors are used to detect cracks and estimate strength. However, since the monitoring sensors installed in the disposal tunnel and disposal container cannot be replaced or removed, the quantitative life of the monitoring sensor and its suitability must be assessed. In this study, the life of a piezo sensor for monitoring was assessed using an accelerated life test (ALT). The failure mode and mechanism of the piezo sensor under high temperature conditions were determined, and temperature stress's influence on the piezo sensor's life was analyzed. ALT was conducted on temperature stress and the relationship between temperature stress and piezo sensor life was suggested. The life of the piezo sensor was assessed using the Weibull probability distribution and the Arrhenius acceleration model. The suggested relationship can be used in multiple stress ALT designs for more precise life assessment.