• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.171-171
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• 2011

급격한 기상이변과 자연현상의 변화에 의해 자연재해가 발생하며, 이러한 변화로 인해 전 세계적으로 환경뿐만 아니라 방재의 중요성 또한 대두되고 있으나, 강우 강도의 예측 분야에서는 여유추정시간의 차이로 인해 방재현상에 대한 구체적인 협력을 하지 못했던 것이 사실이다. 현재 가장 많이 사용하고 있는 레이더 강우자료와 지상 우량계의 강우자료는 여유추정시간이 3시간에서 4시간 사이의 단기 예측만을 가능하게 한다. 본 연구에서는 이의 개선을 위하여 청미천 유역을 대상으로 GIS를 이용하여 CN value를 추출하고, 지역 강우 모형인 Weather Research Forecast(WRF) - Advanced Research WRF(ARW)를 통하여 모의한 강우자료에 대하여 과거 같은 기간의 강우자료와 비교 검증한 후 지역 강우 모형을 통하여 모의한 자료를 HEC-HMS의 Input자료로 활용하여 지역 유출량을 산정한다. 또한 유역의 지표면 유출 모의를 통하여 강우-유출현상과 수리-수문학적 과정을 상호 연결하고, 강우에 의한 유역 지표면에서의 유출을 도출하며, 최적화된 매개변수들의 조합을 개선하여 대상유역의 현상을 보다 유사하게 나타낼 것이다. 이와 함께 WRF-ARW 모형을 통하여 여유추정시간의 증가를 모색하며 그로인한 홍수예측 및 경계체계를 확립하기 위해 연구를 진행한다. 이 지역강우 모형의 대한민국 지형의 적용성 즉, 대한민국 지형에 가장 잘 어울리는 최적화된 매개변수들의 조합을 알아내고 그의 적용현실성을 찾아내려 한다. 더 나아가 강우에 대한 예측을 통해 홍수 경보 체계를 위한 자료로 활용할 수 있는 방안 또한 모색할 것이다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.555-566
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• 2009

Precipitable water vapor (PWV) derived from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model were compared to observations derived from ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. The model data compared were from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model short-range forecasts on nested grids. The numerical experimets were performed by selecting the cloud microphysics schemes and for the comparisons, the Changma period of 2008 was selected. The observational data were derived from GPS measurements at 9-sites in South Korea over a 1-month period, in the middle of June-July 2008. In general, the WRF model demonstrated considerable skill in reproducing the temporal and spatial evolution of the PWV as depicted by the GPS estimations. The correlation between forecasts and GPS estimates of PWV depreciated slowly with increasing forecast times. Comparing simulations with a resolution of 18 km and 6 km showed no obvious PWV dependence on resolution. Besides, GPS and the model PWV data were found to be in quite good agreement with data derived from radiosondes. These results indicated that the GPS-derived PWV data, with high temporal and spatial resolution, are very useful for meteorological applications.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.6
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• pp.553-566
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• 2015

The effects of vertical resolutions and planetary boundary layer (PBL) physics schemes in a numerical simulation with a very high resolution over the metropolitan area were investigated. The numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecast model were conducted from 0000 UTC 25 October to 0000 UTC 26 October 2013. We verified the numerical results against with six hourly observation data from the radiosonde at Seolleung, which was located in southern part of Seoul, and forty three auto weather systems in Seoul. In the experiments of vertical resolutions in low level atmosphere with 44, 50, and 60 layers, which are set to be subdivided particularly under 2 km height. The experiment in 60 layers, which has the highest vertical resolution in this study, showed relatively a clear diurnal variation of PBL heights. Especially, the difference of PBL heights and 10-meter wind fields were mainly seen in the area of high altitude lands for the experiments of vertical resolution. In the sensitivity experiment of PBL schemes such as asymmetric convective model-version 2 (ACM2), Yonsei University (YSU), and Mellow-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) to the temperature, all three PBL schemes revealed lower temperature than observed profile from the radiosonde in the entire period. The experiments with YSU PBL and ACM2 PBL schemes show relatively less biased in comparison with the experiment of the MYJ PBL scheme.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.26 no.12
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• pp.1307-1319
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• 2017

In this study, we investigated the impact of different initial data on atmospheric modeling results using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Four WRF simulations were conducted with different initialization in March 2015, which showed the highest monthly mean $PM_{10}$ concentration in the recent ten years (2006-2015). The results of WRF simulations using NCEP-FNL and ERA-Interim were compared with observed surface temperature and wind speed data, and the difference of grid nudging effect on WRF simulation between the two data were also analyzed. The FNL simulation showed better accuracy in the simulated temperature and wind speed than the Interim simulation, and the difference was clear in the coastal area. The grid nudging effect on the Interim simulation was larger than that of the FNL simulation. Despite of the higher spatial resolution of ERA-Interim data compared to NCEP-FNL data, the Interim simulation showed slightly worse accuracy than those of the FNL simulation. It was due to uncertainties associated with the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) field in the ERA-Interim data. The results from the Interim simulation with different SST data showed significantly improved accuracy than the standard Interim simulation. It means that the SST field in the ERA-Interim data need to be optimized for the better WRF simulation. In conclusion, although the WRF simulation with ERA-Interim data does not show reasonable accuracy compared to those with NCEP-FNL data, it would be able to be Improved by optimizing the SST variable.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.11-23
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• 2017

The short term predictability of wind resources is an important factor in evaluating the economic feasibility of a wind power plant. As a method of improving the predictability, a Bayesian Kalman filter is applied as the model data postprocessing. At this time, a statistical training period is needed to evaluate the correlation between estimated model and observation data for several Kalman training periods. This study was quantitatively analyzes for the prediction characteristics according to different training periods. The prediction of the temperature and wind speed with 3-day short term Bayesian Kalman training at Taebaek area is more reasonable than that in applying the other training periods. In contrast, it may produce a good prediction result in Ieodo when applying the training period for more than six days. The prediction performance of a Bayesian Kalman filter is clearly improved in the case in which the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model prediction performance is poor. On the other hand, the performance improvement of the WRF prediction is weak at the accurate point.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.23 no.12
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• pp.2121-2127
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• 2014

Analyzing the observational data of volcanic activities around the northern part of Korean peninsula, the odds of volcano eruption increases continuously. For example, the cumulative seismic moment and frequence observed near Mt. Baekdu show a sudden increased values. In this study, predicting the diffusion of volcanic ash for two cases were carried out by using interactive realtime simulator, which was developed during last 2 years as a research and development project. The first case is Sakurajima volcano (VEI=3) erupted in August 2013. The second case is assumed as the volcanic eruption at Mt. Baekdu (VEI=7) under landing circumstance of typhoon Maemi (August 2003) in Korean peninsula. The synoptic condition and ash diffusion for the two cases were simulated by WRF(Weather Research and Forecast) model and Lagrangian dispersion model, respectively. Comparing the simulated result of the first case (i.e., Sakurajima volcano) with satellite image, the diffusion pattern show acceptable result. The interactive realtime simulator can be available to support decision making under volcanic disaster around East Asia by predicting several days of ash dispersion within several minutes with ordinary desktop personal computer.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.207-223
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• 2014

The bogussing method was further developed by incorporating the asymmetric component into the symmetric bogus tropical cyclone of the Structure Adjustable Balanced Vortex (SABV). The asymmetric component is separated from the disturbance field associated with the tropical cyclone by establishing local polar coordinates whose center is the location of the tropical cyclone. The relative importance of wave components in azimuthal direction was evaluated, and only two or three wave components with large amplitude are added to the symmetric components. Using the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), initialized with the asymmetric bogus vortex, the track and central pressure of tropical cyclones were predicted. Nine tropical cyclones, which passed over Korean peninsula during 2010~2012 were selected to assess the effect of asymmetric components. Compared to the symmetric bogus tropical cyclone, the track forecast error was reduced by about 18.9% and 17.4% for 48 hours and 72 hours forecast, while the central pressure error was not improved significantly. The results suggest that the inclusion of asymmetric component is necessary to improve the track forecast of tropical cyclones.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.36 no.5_1
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• pp.793-806
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• 2020

In this study,for YSU (Yonsei University), MYJ(Mellor-Yamada-Janjic), ACM2 (Asymmetric Convective Model), and BouLac (Bougeault-Lacarrere) PBL schemes, numerical experiments were performed for the case period (June 26-30, 2014). The PBLH calculated by using the backscatter signal produced by the mobile vehicle-mounted lidar system (LIVE) and the PBLH calculated by the prediction of each PBL schemes of WRF were compared and analyzed. In general, the experiments using the non-local schemes showed a higher correlation than the local schemes for lidar observation. The standard deviation of the PBLH difference for daylight hours was small in the order of YSU (≈0.39 km), BouLac (≈0.45 km), ACM2 (≈0.47 km), MYJ (≈0.53 km) PBL schemes. In the RMSE comparison for the case period, the YSU PBL scheme was found to have the highest precision. The meteorological lider mounted on the vehicle is expected to provide guidance for the analysis of the planetary boundary layer in a numerical model under various weather conditions.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.172-172
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• 2011

The interaction between land surface and atmosphere is essentially affected by hydrometeorological variables including soil moisture. Accurate estimation of soil moisture at spatial and temporal scales is crucial to better understand its roles to the weather systems. The KLDAS(Korea Land Data Assimilation System) is a regional, specifically Korea peninsula land surface information systems. As other prior land data assimilation systems, this can provide initial soil field information which can be used in atmospheric simulations. For this study, as an enabling high-resolution tool, weather research and forecasting(WRF-ARW) model is applied to produce precipitation data using GFS(Global Forecast System) with GFS embedded and KLDAS soil moisture information as initialization data. WRF-ARW generates precipitation data for a specific region using different parameters in physics options. The produced precipitation data will be employed for simulations of Hydrological Models such as HEC(Hydrologic Engineering Center) - HMS(Hydrologic Modeling System) as predefined input data for selected regional water responses. The purpose of this study is to show the impact of a hydrometeorological variable such as soil moisture in KLDAS on hydrological consequences in Korea peninsula. The study region, Chongmi River Basin, is located in the center of Korea Peninsular. This has 60.8Km river length and 17.01% slope. This region mostly consists of farming field however the chosen study area placed in mountainous area. The length of river basin perimeter is 185Km and the average width of river is 9.53 meter with 676 meter highest elevation in this region. We have four different observation locations : Sulsung, Taepyung, Samjook, and Sangkeug observatoriesn, This watershed is selected as a tentative research location and continuously studied for getting hydrological effects from land surface information. Simulations for a real regional storm case(June 17~ June 25, 2006) are executed. WRF-ARW for this case study used WSM6 as a micro physics, Kain-Fritcsch Scheme for cumulus scheme, and YSU scheme for planetary boundary layer. The results of WRF simulations generate excellent precipitation data in terms of peak precipitation and date, and the pattern of daily precipitation for four locations. For Sankeug observatory, WRF overestimated precipitation approximately 100 mm/day on July 17, 2006. Taepyung and Samjook display that WRF produced either with KLDAS or with GFS embedded initial soil moisture data higher precipitation amounts compared to observation. Results and discussions in detail on accuracy of prediction using formerly mentioned manners are going to be presented in 2011 Annual Conference of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.105-114
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• 2017

Two dimensional finite element method with quadrilateral basis functions was applied to the spherical high order filter on the spherical surface limited area domain. The basis function consists of four shape functions which are defined on separate four grid boxes sharing the same gridpoint. With the basis functions, the first order derivative was expressed as an algebraic equation associated with nine point stencil. As the theory depicts, the convergence rate of the error for the spherical Laplacian operator was found to be fourth order, while it was the second order for the spherical Laplacian operator. The accuracy of the new high order filter was shown to be almost the same as those of Fourier finite element high order filter. The two-dimension finite element high order filter was incorporated in the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model as a hyper viscosity. The effect of the high order filter was compared with the built-in viscosity scheme of the WRF model. It was revealed that the high order filter performed better than the built in viscosity scheme did in providing a sharper cutoff of small scale disturbances without affecting the large scale field. Simulation of the tropical cyclone track and intensity with the high order filter showed a forecast performance comparable to the built in viscosity scheme. However, the predicted amount and spatial distribution of the rainfall for the simulation with the high order filter was closer to the observed values than the case of built in viscosity scheme.