• Title/Summary/Keyword: Water Transport

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Implementation of integrated monitoring system for trace and path prediction of infectious disease (전염병의 경로 추적 및 예측을 위한 통합 정보 시스템 구현)

  • Kim, Eungyeong;Lee, Seok;Byun, Young Tae;Lee, Hyuk-Jae;Lee, Taikjin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2013
  • The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.

Security and Safety Assessment of the Small-scale Offshore CO2 Storage Demonstration Project in the Pohang Basin (포항분지 해상 중소규모 CO2 지중저장 실증연구 안전성 평가)

  • Kwon, Yi Kyun;Chang, Chandong;Shinn, Youngjae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.217-246
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    • 2018
  • During the selection and characterization of target formations in the Small-scale Offshore $CO_2$ Storage Demonstration Project in the Pohang Basin, we have carefully investigated the possibility of induced earthquakes and leakage of $CO_2$ during the injection, and have designed the storage processes to minimize these effects. However, people in Pohang city have a great concern on $CO_2$-injection-intrigued seismicity, since they have greatly suffered from the 5.4 magnitude earthquake on Nov. 15, 2017. The research team of the project performed an extensive self-investigation on the safety issues, especially on the possible $CO_2$ leakage from the target formation and induced earthquakes. The target formation is 10 km apart from the epicenter of the Pohang earthquake and the depth is also quite shallow, only 750 to 800 m from the sea bottom. The project performed a pilot injection in the target formation from Jan. 12 to Mar. 12, 2017, which implies that there are no direct correlation of the Pohang earthquake on Nov. 15, 2017. In addition, the $CO_2$ injection of the storage project does not fracture rock formations, instead, the supercritical $CO_2$ fluid replaces formation water in the pore space gradually. The self-investigation results show that there is almost no chance for the injection to induce significant earthquakes unless injection lasts for a very long time to build a very high pore pressure, which can be easily monitored. The amount of injected $CO_2$ in the project was around 100 metric-tonne that is irrelevant to the Pohang earthquake. The investigation result on long-term safety also shows that the induced earthquakes or the reactivation of existing faults can be prevented successfully when the injection pressure is controlled not to demage cap-rock formation nor exceed Coulomb stresses of existing faults. The project has been performing extensive studies on critical stress for fracturing neighboring formations, reactivation stress of existing faults, well-completion processes to minimize possible leakage, transport/leakage monitoring of injected $CO_2$, and operation procedures for ensuring the storage safety. These extensive studies showed that there will be little chance in $CO_2$ leakage that affects human life. In conclusion, the Small-scale Offshore $CO_2$ Storage Demonstration Project in the Pohang Basin would not cause any induced earthquakes nor signifiant $CO_2$ leakage that people can sense. The research team will give every effort to secure the safety of the storage site.