• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
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• pp.204-204
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• 2016

Thailand had set the National Water Management Strategy which covered main six areas in the next 12 years, i.e., by priority: (1) water for household, (2) water for agricultural and industrial production, (3) water for flood and drought management, (4) water for quality issue, (5) water from forest conservation and soil erosion protection, (6) water resources management. However due to the climate change impact, there is a question for all strategies is whether to complete this mission under future climate change. If the impact affects our target, we have to clarify how to mitigate or to adapt with it. Vulnerability assessment was conducted under the framework of ADB's (with the parameters of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and the assessments were classified into groups due to their different characteristic and the framework of the National Water Management Strategy, i.e., water supply (rural and urban), water for development (agriculture and others), water disasters (floods (flash, overflow), drought, water quality). The assessments identified the parameters concerned and weight factors used for each groups via expert group discussions and by using GIS mapping technology, the vulnerability maps were produced. The maps were verified with present water situation data (floods, drought, water quality). From the analysis result of this water resources management strategy, we found that 30% of all projects face the big impacts, 40% with low impact, and 30% for no impact. It is clear that water-related agencies have to carefully take care approximately 70% of future projects to meet water resources management strategy. It is recommended that additional issues should be addressed to mitigate the impact from climate risk on water resource management of the country, i.e., water resources management under new risk based on development scenarios, relationship with area-based problems, priority definition by viewpoints of risk, vulnerability (impact and occurrence probability in past and future), water management system in emergency case and water reserve system, use of information, knowledge and technology in management, network cooperation and exchange of experiences, knowledge, technique for sustainable development with mitigation and adaptation, education and communication systems in risk, new impact, and emergency-reserve system. These issues will be described and discussed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.323-335
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• 2017

A simplified framework for the probabilistic estimation of economic losses induced by the structural vulnerability in single-story and single-bay precast industrial buildings is presented. The simplifications introduced in the framework are oriented to the definition of an expeditious procedure adoptable by government agencies and insurance companies for preliminary risk assessment. The economic losses are evaluated considering seismic hazard, structural response, damage resulting from the structural vulnerability and only structural-vulnerability-induced e]conomic losses, i.e., structural repair or reconstruction costs (stock and flow costs) and content losses induced by structural collapse. The uncertainties associated with each step are accounted for via Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results in a probabilistic description of the seismic risk of portal-like industrial buildings, expressed in terms of economic losses for each occurrence (i.e., seismic event) that owners (i.e., insured) and stakeholders can use to make risk management decisions. The outcome may also be useful for the definition of the insurance premiums and the evaluation of the risks and costs for the owner corresponding to the insurance industrial costs. A prototype of a precast concrete industrial building located in Mirandola, Italy, hit by the 2012 Emilia earthquake, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.269-279
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• 2019

This study would present a risk analysis method to evaluate stable tap water supply in a multi-regional water supply system and propose a measure for the evaluation of the effect of the conjunctive operation of the multi-regional water supply system using this. Judging from the vulnerability for the crisis response of the entire N. multi-regional water supply system, as compared to the result of Scenario 1 in which no conjunctive pipes were operated, it was found that in Scenario 2, in which conjunctive pipes were partially operated, the vulnerability of crisis response decreased by about 30.6%, and as compared to Scenario 3, the vulnerability of crisis response decreased by 86.2%. In setting a plan for stable tap water supply in N multi-regional water supply system, using the estimated value and the method for the evaluation of the vulnerability of crisis response by pipe, by interval and by line, it is judged that this can be utilized as a basis for the judgment of the evaluation of the operation or the additional installation of conjunctive pipes.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제33권5호
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• pp.150-156
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• 2018

As the types and usage of chemical increase, modern countries should protect their health and environment from the risk of hazardous chemical. Chemical accidents not only affect humans but also cause huge losses to the environment. Moreover, since its effects do not end in a short period of time, it is necessary to identify the extent of the damage and establish a prevention and response system in advance. In 2015, the Chemical Substances Management Act provided a system for assessing the impact on the people and the environment around the workplace. However, it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate the impact on environmental factors such as vegetation and aquatic, with the current hazard assessment methods. The purpose of this study is to analyze the quantitative risk of environmental receptors. This study improved the existing risk assessment formula by using the environmental vulnerability index and established the end point concentration criterion which can estimate the damage range to environmental media. To verify the results of the study, a virtual accident scenario was selected and a case study was conducted. As a result, the extent of impact on the environmental medium can be calculated, and the degree of environmental risk of the zone can be quantified through the risk analysis considering the environmental vulnerability. This study is expected to increase the reliability of the reliability of the existing risk anaylsis method beacause it is a risk analysis method that can be applied when the environmental factors are absolutely necessary and when the residents and environment are complex.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.37-51
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• 1998

This study attempts to draw a blueprint of risk analysis for Information Systems (IS). We introduce two main variables for measuring IS risk - business-impact intensity and IS-vulnerability index - through the investigation of information characteristics, business processes and human-related factors. IS-vulnerability index consists of two factors such as degree of openness and degree of preparedness to the threats. Based on these factors, we built two integrative frameworks for risk analysis and management: One is a conceptual framework to enhance the understandability of IS risk itself; the other is an integrative framework to improve the managerial insight of overall IS risk. We then conducted a field study to empirically validate the proposed framework using a structural equations modeling method. We found that IS maturity and business-impact intensity were positively correlated to degree of openness to the threats, while IS maturity was negatively correlated to degree of preparedness to the threats.

• 대기
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.1-21
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• 2024

Private companies are increasingly required to take more substantial actions on climate change. This study introduces the principle and cases of climate (physical) risk estimation for 11 private companies in Korea. Climate risk is defined as the product of three major determinants: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Hazard is the intensity or frequency of weather phenomena that can cause disasters. Vulnerability can be reflected in the function that explains the relationship between past weather records and loss records. The final climate risk is calculated by multiplying the function by the exposure, which is defined as the area or value of the target area exposed to the climate. Future climate risk is estimated by applying future exposure to estimated future hazard using climate model scenarios or statistical trends based on weather data. The estimated climate risks are developed into three types according to the demand of private companies: i) climate risk for financial portfolio management, ii) climate risk for port logistics management, iii) climate risk for supply chain management. We hope that this study will contribute to the establishment of the climate risk management system in the Korean industrial sector as a whole.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.87-96
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• 2023

보안 취약점 수가 해마다 증가함에 따라 보안 위협이 지속해서 발생하고 있으며 취약점 위험도의 중요성이 대두되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 보안 취약점 위험도 판단을 위해 동향을 반영한 보안 위협 스코어링 산출식을 고안하였다. 세 단계에 따라 공격 유형과 공급업체, 취약점 동향, 최근 공격 방식과 기법 등의 핵심 항목 요소를 고려하였다. 첫째로는 공격 유형, 공급업체와 CVE 데이터의 관련성 확인 결과를 반영한다. 둘째로는 LDA 알고리즘으로 확인된 토픽 그룹과 CVE 데이터 간 유사성 확인을 위해 자카드 유사도 기법을 사용한다. 셋째로는 최신 버전 MITRE ATT&CK 프레임워크의 공격 방법, 기술 항목 동향과 CVE 간의 관련성 확인 결과를 반영한다. 최종 보안 취약점 위협 산출식 CTRS의 활용성 검토를 위해 공신력 높은 취약점 정보 제공 해외 사이트 내 데이터에 제안한 스코어링 방식을 적용하였다. 본 연구에서 제안한 산출식을 통하여 취약점과 관련된 일부 설명만으로도 관련성과 위험도가 높은 취약점을 확인하여 신속하게 관련 정보를 인지하고 대응할 수 있다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.83-94
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• 2022

In recent years, some studies have identified and quantified factors that can increase or decrease the seismic vulnerability of buildings. These modifier factors, related to the building characteristics and condition, are taken into account in the vulnerability assessment, by means of a numerical estimation resulting from the quantification of these modifiers through vulnerability indexes. However, views have differed on the definition and the quantification of modifiers. In this study, modifier parameters and scores of the Risk-UE Level 1 method are adjusted based on the Algerian seismic code recommendations and the reviews proposed in the literature. The adjusted modifiers and scores are applied to reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in Boumerdes city, in order to assess probable seismic damage. Comparison between estimated damage and observed damage caused by the 2003 Boumerdes earthquake is done, with the objective to (i) validate the model involving influence of the modifier parameters on the seismic vulnerability, and (ii) to define the relationship between modifiers and damage. This research may help planners in improving seismic regulations and reducing vulnerability of existing buildings.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제18권8호
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• pp.459-468
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• 2018

무기체계 관련 어플리케이션과 국방 관련 기관에서 활용하는 정보시스템이 사이버 공격을 받을 경우 국가의 안보가 위험해지는 결과를 초래한다. 이러한 위험을 줄이기 위해 개발 단계에서부터 시큐어 코딩을 적용하거나, 발견된 취약점들을 체계적으로 관리하기 위한 노력이 지속적으로 행해지고 있다. 또한 다양한 분석 도구를 이용하여 취약점을 분석, 탐지하고 개발 단계에서 취약점을 제거하거나, 개발된 어플리케이션에서 취약점을 제거하기 위해 노력하고 있다. 그러나 취약점 분석 도구들은 미탐지, 오탐지, 과탐지를 발생시켜 정확한 취약점 탐지를 어렵게 한다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 문제점 해결방안으로 분석 대상이 되는 어플리케이션의 위험도를 평가하고 이를 기반으로 안전한 어플리케이션을 개발 및 관리할 수 있는 취약점 탐지기법을 새롭게 제안하였다.

• 정보처리학회논문지C
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• 제13C권7호
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• pp.851-858
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• 2006

위험분석은 조직의 특성을 반영하여 자산분석, 위협분석, 취약성 분석을 통하여 조직의 주요 자산에 대한 위험도를 분석하고 적절한 대응책을 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 하지만, 기존의 TTA 위험분석 방법론은 전체의 개략적인 흐름은 제시하고 있으나, 각 단계에서의 구체적인 행위를 제시하지 못하고 있다. 즉 위협분석 단계에서는 어떠한 기준으로 각 위협을 어떻게 분류하여야 하는가하는 문제와 분류된 위협을 어떤 방식으로 위험도 계산에 반영해야하는가에 대한 구체적인 제시가 미흡한 현실이다. 또한 취약성 분석 단계에서는 발견되는 취약성을 어떠한 항목을 기준으로 분류하여야 하며, 발견되는 각 자산별 취약성을 위험분석의 위험도 산정에 어떤 과정을 통하여 반영해야하는가에 대한 제시 역시 미흡하다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 기존 TTA의 방법론에서 제시하고 있지 않은 위협분석과 취약성 분석 단계에서의 정량적인 평가가 가능한 방법론을 제시한다. 이를 위하여 본 논문에서는 자산 가치 평가에 조직의 비즈니스 프로세스를 기준으로 업무 영역 분류를 통한 유형자산 가치분석과 무형자산 가치분석을 수행하고 이를 바탕으로 취약성을 분석하고 위험도를 계산하였다 이러한 방법은 국내 정보시스템의 현실을 반영하고, 환경적 취약성과 기술적 취약성의 영향력을 반영하여, 조직의 자산별로 수치화된 위험도 산정을 가능하게 한다. 이는 위험분석 평가 대상조직의 자산별 위험도 분석이 가능하게 한다.