• Title/Summary/Keyword: Vulnerability Analysis Index

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Application of a Statistical Interpolation Method to Correct Extreme Values in High-Resolution Gridded Climate Variables (고해상도 격자 기후자료 내 이상 기후변수 수정을 위한 통계적 보간법 적용)

  • Jeong, Yeo min;Eum, Hyung-Il
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.331-344
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    • 2015
  • A long-term gridded historical data at 3 km spatial resolution has been generated for practical regional applications such as hydrologic modelling. However, overly high or low values have been found at some grid points where complex topography or sparse observational network exist. In this study, the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method was applied to properly smooth the overly predicted values of Improved GIS-based Regression Model (IGISRM), called the IDW-IGISRM grid data, at the same resolution for daily precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature from 2001 to 2010 over South Korea. We tested various effective distances in the IDW method to detect an optimal distance that provides the highest performance. IDW-IGISRM was compared with IGISRM to evaluate the effectiveness of IDW-IGISRM with regard to spatial patterns, and quantitative performance metrics over 243 AWS observational points and four selected stations showing the largest biases. Regarding the spatial pattern, IDW-IGISRM reduced irrational overly predicted values, i. e. producing smoother spatial maps that IGISRM for all variables. In addition, all quantitative performance metrics were improved by IDW-IGISRM; correlation coefficient (CC), Index Of Agreement (IOA) increase up to 11.2% and 2.0%, respectively. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were also reduced up to 5.4% and 15.2% respectively. At the selected four stations, this study demonstrated that the improvement was more considerable. These results indicate that IDW-IGISRM can improve the predictive performance of IGISRM, consequently providing more reliable high-resolution gridded data for assessment, adaptation, and vulnerability studies of climate change impacts.

Psychological Factors in Recurrent Non-specific Neck Pain (비특이성 목 통증 재발의 심리적 인자)

  • Mi-Ran Goo;Deok-Hoon Jun
    • PNF and Movement
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.257-266
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to determine the influence of psychological and other risk factors on the recurrence of nonspecific neck pain. To achieve this, a nationwide cohort provided by the National Health Insurance Service in South Korea, with a three-year follow-up, was used. Methods: The study included patients who did not experience neck pain for the first year but were diagnosed with nonspecific neck pain (ICD-10 code: M54.2) in the second year. The progress of their neck pain recurrence was followed up for the next two years. Medical records, including age, gender, health insurance premium quintile, regional health vulnerability index score, initial onset duration, total hospitalization duration, and secondary diagnosis at onset, were extracted for analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the recurrence rate and risk factors for nonspecific neck pain recurrence. Results: Among a total of 591,215 patients, 29.2% experienced recurrence within two years. Patients with psychological disorders had a higher recurrence rate (30.6-33.8%) than those without psychological disorders (29.2%). Specifically, mood disorders (OR = 1.16) and stress-related disorders (OR = 1.06) were identified as risk factors for the recurrence of nonspecific neck pain. Older age (OR = 1.16-1.43), being female (OR = 1.17), being employed (OR = 1.23), and using medial aids (OR = 1.41) were also identified as risk factors. Conclusion: This study provides evidence for a high recurrence rate of nonspecific neck pain and highlights the need to consider psychological factors as well as personal factors in comprehensive interventions to prevent recurrent nonspecific neck pain.

Flood Risk Estimation Using Regional Regression Analysis (지역회귀분석을 이용한 홍수피해위험도 산정)

  • Jang, Ock-Jae;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2009
  • Although desire for living without hazardous damages grows these days, threats from natural disasters which we are currently exposed to are quiet different from what we have experienced. To cope with this changing situation, it is necessary to assess the characteristics of the natural disasters. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to suggest a methodology to estimate the potential property loss and assess the flood risk using a regional regression analysis. Since the flood damage mainly consists of loss of lives and property damages, it is reasonable to express the results of a flood risk assessment with the loss of lives and the property damages that are vulnerable to flood. The regional regression analysis has been commonly used to find relationships between regional characteristics of a watershed and parameters of rainfall-runoff models or probability distribution models. In our research, however, this model is applied to estimate the potential flood damage as follows; 1) a nonlinear model between the flood damage and the hourly rainfall is found in gauged regions which have sufficient damage and rainfall data, and 2) a regression model is developed from the relationship between the coefficients of the nonlinear models and socio-economic indicators in the gauged regions. This method enables us to quantitatively analyze the impact of the regional indicators on the flood damage and to estimate the damage through the application of the regional regression model to ungauged regions which do not have sufficient data. Moreover the flood risk map is developed by Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) which is equal to the ratio of the estimated flood damage to the total regional property. Comparing the results of this research with Potential Flood Damage (PFD) reported in the Long-term Korea National Water Resources Plan, the exports' mistaken opinions could affect the weighting procedure of PFD, but the proposed approach based on the regional regression would overcome the drawback of PFD. It was found that FVI is highly correlated with the past damage, while PFD does not reflect the regional vulnerabilities.

Estimation of Regional Drought Risk Assessment Criteria Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis in Nakdong River Basin (이변량 빈도해석을 이용한 낙동강 유역의 지역 가뭄 위험도 평가 기준 산정)

  • Yu, Ji Soo;Choi, Si-Jung;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tea-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.498-498
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    • 2018
  • 가뭄으로 인해 발생할 수 있는 가장 심각한 피해는 용수 부족으로 인한 수자원 시스템의 용수공급 실패이며, 따라서 가뭄 위험도는 사용 가능한 용수의 부족과 관련하여 정량화되어야 한다. 이러한 맥락에서 수자원 시스템의 가뭄 위험도를 평가하기 위해 주로 신뢰도(reliability), 회복도(resiliency) 및 취약도(vulnerability)와 같은 세 가지 이수안전도 평가지표가 사용된다. 이러한 평가지표는 각각 용수공급 실패가 평균적으로 얼마나 자주 발생하는지, 얼마나 오래 지속되는지, 또한 어느 정도의 규모로 발생하는지를 위험도를 정량화하는 것으로, 용수공급 실패사상의 빈도, 지속기간 및 심도를 나타낸다. 본 연구에서 DRI(Drought Risk Index)는 신뢰도, 평가도 및 회복도의 가중평균값으로 정의되며, 이는 지속기간과 심도를 변수로 하는 이변량 가뭄빈도해석과 같은 변수를 공유한다. 본 연구에서는 두 가지 형태의 DRI 를 이용하여 지역 가뭄 위험도 평가 기준 산정 방안을 제시하였다. DRI_O(observed DRI)는 용수부족 시계열을 통해 산정된 공급실패 사상으로부터 산정되며, DRI_D(designed DRI)는 이변량 빈도해석을 통해 산정된 특정 지속기간을 갖는 확률가뭄심도로부터 계산된다. 기후변화 시나리오를 이용해 DRI_O 를 산정함으로써 미래의 이수안전도를 예측할 수 있으며, 이를 DRI_D 와 비교하여 지역의 용수부족으로 인한 가뭄 위험도를 산정하는 방법을 제안하였다. 또한 기존에는 주로 과거 최대 가뭄사상을 목표안전도로 설정하였으나 DRI_D 를 이용하여 보다 현실적인 목표안전도를 설정할 수 있다. 낙동강 권역의 10 개 중권역의 10 개 기후변화 시나리오를 대상으로 분석을 수행한 결과 병성천 유역과 형산강 유역이 각각 최저 및 최고 위험도를 갖는 것으로 분석되었으며, 지역 안전도 기준은 평균적으로 재현기간 5-20 년 사이의 범위를 갖는 것으로 나타났다.

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Housing Tenure Choice Decisions of Older Households - With Focus on the Physical Features of the Householders - (고연령가구의 주택점유형태 결정요인 분석 : 가구주의 활동제약을 중심으로)

  • Jung, Bo Seon;Cho, Young Kyung;Lee, Sang Youb
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.39-52
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the housing tenure choice decisions of older households, with focus on the activity constraints of the householders. For analysis, the probit model based on the data of the householders over 55 years of age from the 2015 KLIPS data was implemented. The research findings indicate that the ownership choice probability decreases when the head of the household has activity or social activity constraints. If there is an activity restriction, it is considered that the possibility of self-residence will be low due to the increase in medical expenses, the possibility of participation in economic activities will be low, the possibility of early retirement will be high, and the income will decrease. Therefore, if the head of the household has a personal or social activity constraint, such case is more likely to be categorized as falling under the poor residential group. This result suggests that the activity constraint can be utilized as a useful index for the housing welfare policy considering physical vulnerability.

Application of Lagrangian approach to generate P-I diagrams for RC columns exposed to extreme dynamic loading

  • Zhang, Chunwei;Abedini, Masoud
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.153-167
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    • 2022
  • The interaction between blast load and structures, as well as the interaction among structural members may well affect the structural response and damages. Therefore, it is necessary to analyse more realistic reinforced concrete structures in order to gain an extensive knowledge on the possible structural response under blast load effect. Among all the civilian structures, columns are considered to be the most vulnerable to terrorist threat and hence detailed investigation in the dynamic response of these structures is essential. Therefore, current research examines the effect of blast loads on the reinforced concrete columns via development of Pressure- Impulse (P-I) diagrams. In the finite element analysis, the level of damage on each of the aforementioned RC column will be assessed and the response of the RC columns when subjected to explosive loads will also be identified. Numerical models carried out using LS-DYNA were compared with experimental results. It was shown that the model yields a reliable prediction of damage on all RC columns. Validation study is conducted based on the experimental test to investigate the accuracy of finite element models to represent the behaviour of the models. The blast load application in the current research is determined based on the Lagrangian approach. To develop the designated P-I curves, damage assessment criteria are used based on the residual capacity of column. Intensive investigations are implemented to assess the effect of column dimension, concrete and steel properties and reinforcement ratio on the P-I diagram of RC columns. The produced P-I models can be applied by designers to predict the damage of new columns and to assess existing columns subjected to different blast load conditions.

Cortical thickness of the rostral anterior cingulate gyrus is associated with frailty in patients with end-stage renal disease undergoing hemodialysis in Korea: a cross-sectional study

  • Sang Hyun Jung;Jong Soo Oh;So-Young Lee;Hye Yun Jeong
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.381-387
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    • 2023
  • Background: Frailty is defined as a condition of being weak and delicate, and it represents a state of high vulnerability to adverse health outcomes. Recent studies have suggested that the cingulate gyrus is associated with frailty in the elderly population. However, few imaging studies have explored the relationship between frailty and the cingulate gyrus in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) undergoing hemodialysis. Methods: Eighteen right-handed patients with ESRD undergoing hemodialysis were enrolled in the study. We used the FreeSurfer software package to estimate the cortical thickness of the regions of interest, including the rostral anterior, caudal anterior, isthmus, and posterior cingulate gyri. The Beck Depression Inventory, Beck Anxiety Inventory, and laboratory tests were also conducted. Results: The cortical thickness of the right rostral anterior cingulate gyrus (ACG) was significantly correlated with the Fried frailty index, age, and creatinine level. Multiple regression analysis indicated that the cortical thickness of the right rostral ACG was associated with frailty after controlling for age and creatinine level. Conclusion: Our results indicate that the cortical thickness of the rostral ACG may be associated with frailty in patients with ESRD on hemodialysis and that the rostral ACG may play a role in the frailty mechanism of this population.

i-Tree Canopy-based Decision Support Method for Establishing Climate Change Adaptive Urban Forests (기후변화적응형 도시림 조성을 위한 i-Tree Canopy 기반 의사결정지원 방안)

  • Tae Han Kim;Jae Young Lee;Chang Gil Song;Ji Eun Oh
    • Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.12-18
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    • 2024
  • The accelerated pace of climate crisis due to continuous industrialization and greenhouse gas emissions necessitates sustainable solutions that simultaneously address mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Naturebased Solutions (NbS) have gained prominence as viable approaches, with Green Infrastructure being a representative NbS. Green Infrastructure involves securing green spaces within urban areas, providing diverse climate adaptation functions such as removal of various air pollutants, carbon sequestration, and isolation. The proliferation of Green Infrastructure is influenced by the quantification of improvement effects related to various projects. To support decision-making by assessing the climate vulnerability of Green Infrastructure, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has developed i-Tree Tools. This study proposes a comprehensive evaluation approach for climate change adaptation types by quantifying the climate adaptation performance of urban Green Infrastructure. Using i-Tree Canopy, the analysis focuses on five urban green spaces covering more than 30 hectares, considering the tree ratio relative to the total area. The evaluation encompasses aspects of thermal environment, aquatic environment, and atmospheric environment to assess the overall eco-friendliness in terms of climate change adaptation. The results indicate that an increase in the tree ratio correlates with improved eco-friendliness in terms of thermal, aquatic, and atmospheric environments. In particular, it is necessary to prioritize consideration of the water environment sector in order to realize climate change adaptive green infrastructure, such as increasing green space in urban areas, as it has been confirmed that four out of five target sites are specialized in improving the water environment.

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A Study on the Development of Assessment Index for Catastrophic Incident Warning Sign at Refinery and Pertrochemical Plants (정유 및 석유화학플랜트 중대사고 전조신호 평가지표 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Yong Jin;Park, Dal Jae
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.637-651
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    • 2019
  • In the event of a major accident such as an explosion in a refinery or a petrochemical plant, it has caused a serious loss of life and property and has had a great impact on the insurance market. In the case of catastrophic incidents occurring in process industries such as refinery and petrochemical plants, only the proximate causes of loss have been drawn and studied from inspectors or claims adjustors responsible for claims of property insurers, incident cause investigators, and national forensic service workers. However, it has not been done well for conducting root cause analysis (RCA) and identifying the factors that contributed to the failure and establishing preventive measures before leading to chemical plant's catastrophic incidents. In this study, the criteria of warning signs on CCPS catastrophic incident waning sign self-assessment tool which was derived through the RCA method and the contribution factor analysis method using the swiss cheese model principle has been reviewed first. Secondly, in order to determine the major incident warning signs in an actual chemical plant, 614 recommendations which have been issued during last the 17 years by loss control engineers of global reinsurers were analyzed. Finally, in order to facilitate the assessment index for catastrophic incident warning signs, the criteria for the catastrophic incident warning sign index at chemical plants were grouped by type and classified into upper category and lower category. Then, a catastrophic incident warning sign index for a chemical plant was developed using the weighted values of each category derived by applying the analytic hierarchy process (pairwise comparison method) through a questionnaire answered by relevant experts of the chemical plant. It is expected that the final 'assessment index for catastrophic incident warning signs' can be utilized by the refinery and petrochemical plant's internal as well as external auditors to assess vulnerability levels related to incident warning signs, and identify the elements of incident warning signs that need to be tracked and managed to prevent the occurrence of serious incidents in the future.

Application of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System in Forest Sector (원격탐사와 지리정보시스템의 산림분야 활용)

  • Lee, Woo-Kyun;Kim, Moonil;Song, Cholho;Lee, Sle-gee;Cha, Sungeun;Kim, GangSun
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.27-42
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    • 2016
  • Forest accounts for almost 64 percents of total land cover in South Korea. For inventorying, monitoring, and managing such large area of forest, application of remote sensing and geographic information system (RS/GIS) technology is essential. On the basis of spectral characteristics of satellite imagery, forest cover and tree species can be classified, and forest cover map can be prepared. Using three dimensional data of LiDAR(Light Detection and Ranging), tree location and tree height can be measured, and biomass and carbon stocks can be also estimated. In addition, many indices can be extracted using reflection characteristics of land cover. For example, the level of vegetation vitality and forest degradation can be analyzed with VI (vegetation Index) and TGSI (Top Grain Soil Index), respectively. Also, pine wilt disease and o ak w ilt d isease c an b e e arly detected and controled through understanding of change in vegetation indices. RS and GIS take an important role in assessing carbon storage in climate change related projects such as A/R CDM, REDD+ as well. In the field of climate change adaptation, impact and vulnerability can be spatio-temporally assessed for national and local level with the help of spatio-temporal data of GIS. Forest growth, tree mortality, land slide, forest fire can be spatio-temporally estimated using the models in which spatio-temporal data of GIS are added as influence variables.