• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.12 no.12
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• pp.25-33
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• 2021

Purpose: This paper estimates the impact of the epidemic crisis on election outcomes through investigating the effect of Covid19 crisis on election results of 21st General Election held in April 15th 2020 in Korea. Research design, data and methodology: This study employs Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method using district-level data from Seoul and Gyeonggi province available at National election data in Korea. Results: Despite the current crisis in Korea, Covid-19 has had positive effects on voter turnout on average, after controlling for other factors. On the other hand, the effect of Covid-19 on the voter turnout was negative in districts with a larger aging population and higher health insurance premiums. In addition, Covid-19 negatively impacted vote shares for the incumbent party, while its rival party saw gains in their votes. Conclusion: The effect of Covid-19 election outcomes in Korea is distinct from other countries due to the nationwide acknowledgment of the Korean government's achievement in managing the epidemic. This implies that the crisis management ability of a government is crucial in gaining support for an incumbent party in future elections. Countries facing upcoming elections need to implement acceptable Covid-19 restriction policies as well as economic support for compensation to reap similar benefits.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.2873-2881
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• 2018

It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.197-221
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• 2018

The Cambodian People's Party swept all 125 assembly seats with 76.78% of the vote in 2018 general elections. The Cambodian National Rescue Party, having been dissolved by court, was excluded from the election and attempted to nullify the legitimacy of the election by demanding its supporters to boycott the election. The Cambodian People's Party launched a campaign encouraging to vote in a desperate need to thwart the boycott movement. The election then became an unprecedented kind of competition the winner of which is decided not by the percentage of the vote but by turnout. The Cambodian People's Party was the winner with the high turnout of 82.89%, securing the means to defend the legitimacy of the election. The potential supporters of the Cambodian National Rescue Party spread out with about a million voters switching to support the Cambodian People's Party. Over a half million invalid votes that unequivocally voiced opposition to the Cambodian People's Party were not sufficient to deny the legitimacy of the election. Having experienced the fierce competition in the 2013 general elections that threatened to end its rule, the Cambodian People's Party decided to secure its power in the upcoming election and executed a tactic designed to remove the rival party through legal means. Competition being removed, the Cambodian political system decayed back to hegemonic electoral authoritarianism from competitive electoral authoritarianism to which it had mad gradual progress through the general elections in the past.

• Informatization Policy
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.3-19
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• 2013

Studies on the SNS political participation have covered issues of SNS effect on political participation, electoral campaigns, and the public sphere. Such issues as characteristics of SNS political participation, the characteristics of SNS users, SNS effect on the political participation, active SNS political participants, and the impact on young people's political participation, etc. have been studied in the area of political participation effect. On the election issues, SNS impact on election turnout, voting behavior, and the election results were main research topics. Finally, the research on the public sphere mainly discussed topics of quality of SNS information and social fragmentation phenomenon. What is commonly observed across all the three subjects is that the conflicting claims appear to almost all the topics. These contradictory findings are likely to occur because variables of real politics are not fully taken into account and research variables are not strictly manipulated. We can get more accurate research results in the study of SNS political participation when we conduct cross-national research reflecting the context of real politics and also designing independent variables more in detail and elaborately.