• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.90 no.2
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• pp.217-226
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• 2001

This study estimated the impacts of the building permit area change on the forest products import quantities in Korea. The first objective of this dissertation is to analyze whether there is any causal relationship between change in the building permit area and changes in the import quantities of forest products in Korea. Assuming that there is any causal relationship, the second objective is to evaluate the dynamics of the impacts of the building permit area change on the forest products import quantities in Korea. The relationship between the building permit area and the import quantity was represented by bivariate vector autoregressive or vector error correction model. Whether there is any causal relationship between change in the building permit area and changes in the import quantities of forest products was analyzed by the causality test of Granger. And the dynamics of the impacts of the building permit area change on the forest products import quantities were evaluated by variance decomposition analysis and impulse response analysis. The import quantity of forest products can be explained by the lagged building permit area variables and the lagged import quantity variables in Korea. Change in the building permit area causes change in the high-density fiberboard import quantity in Korea. In the bivariate model of the high-density fiberboard import quantity, after six months, the building permit area change accounts for about ten percent of variation in the import quantity, and its own change accounts for about ninety percent of variation in the import quantity. On the other hand, the impact of a shock to the building permit area is significant for about six months on the import quantity of high-density fiberboard in Korea. That is, if the building permit area change indeed had an impact on the import quantity of high-density fiberboard in Korea, it was only of a short-term nature.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.189-212
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• 2005

This study examines the interactions between KTB spot and futures markets using the daily prices from March 4, 2002 to January 31, 2005. We use Granger causality test, impulse Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition through vector autoregressive analysis (VAR). However, considering the long-term relationships between the level variables of KTB spot and futures, we introduced Vector Error Correction Model. The main results are as follows. According to the results of Granger-causality test and impulse response analysis, we find that the yields of KTB forward have a great influence on the change of KTB spot but not vice versa. In terms of volatility analysis, there is no inter-dependence between KTB forward and spot markets. In the variance decomposition analysis we find that the short-term KTB forward has much more impact on the KTB spot market than the long-term KTB forward does. We think these results are meaningful for bond investors who are in charge of capital asset pricing valuation, risk management and international portfolio management.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.352-361
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• 2021

An underwater positioning method that can be applied to structures for underwater construction is being developed at the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology. The method uses an extended Kalman filter (EKF) based on an inertial navigation system for precise and continuous position estimation. The observation matrix was configured to be variable in order to apply asynchronous measured sensor data in the correction step of the EKF. A Doppler velocity logger (DVL) can acquire signals only when attached to the bottom of an underwater structure, and it is difficult to install and recover. Therefore, a complex sensor device for underwater structure attachment was developed without a DVL in consideration of an underwater construction environment, installation location, system operation convenience, etc.. Its performance was verified through a water tank test. The results are the measured underwater position using an ultra-short baseline, the estimated position using only a position vector, and the estimated position using position/velocity vectors. The results were compared and evaluated using the circular error probability (CEP). As a result, the CEP of the USBL alone was 0.02 m, the CEP of the position estimation with only the position vector corrected was 3.76 m, and the CEP of the position estimation with the position and velocity vectors corrected was 0.06 m. Through this research, it was confirmed that stable underwater positioning can be carried out using asynchronous sensors without a DVL.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.39-48
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• 2016

According to the order receipt report over the past 10 years the overseas construction business total trades were 54.05% and 68.09% done by the Middle East and other industrial facilities respectively. In the Middle East based on data collected in 2014 the country with most overseas construction business is Saudi Arabia with 34.10%, and the industrial facility occupies the larger share with 56%. Overseas construction business is suffering from a reduction in work orders in the Middle East because of the recent oil price reduction. At this point of view, it is necessary to consider economy fluctuation for the diversification of construction type and work orders. This study analyzed, focusing in Saudi Arabia how the economical fluctuations of nations of progress can affect overseas construction business' trade orders. The analysis results demonstrated that most construction types depends on GDP, investment fund. Also industrial facility can be substituted with Architecture and civil engineering. This work is expected to be used as a basis for trade order amount maintenance and construction type diversification.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.440-447
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to identify the causation and variation among the various types of onion prices in the major production sites to predict these prices. The Granger causal relationship was tested on the basis of VECM by setting the onion price of the early, middle, and late species as individual variables. The analysis shows that the amount of onions produced in the prior term affects the price of onions for the later period, while garlic in the substitution relationship with onions also affects the prices of onions for the early and middle-variety. On the other hand, the price of the late-variety is affected by the price of the early-variety, and the price of the middle-variety is also affected by the price of the early-variety. If the price of onions on Jeju changes due to other factors, the prices of onions in Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do provinces will be affected. Accordingly, when the production of late-variety increases or decreases in production under any factor and to promote stability of the prices of middle and late-variety through preemptive supply and demand measures when the prices of ultra-breed onions rise or fall due to any factor (Ed- I cannot understand this last sentence and cannot guess at the correct meaning. Please try to rewrite very simply).

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.531-565
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• 2011

All previous studies analyzing multivariate time series data of EUA (European Union Allowance) price commonly used endogenous variables within the four variables and included the period from April to June of 2006 in the analysis, when the price distortion occurred. This study uses graph theory and structural vector error correction model (SVECM) to analyze the daily time series data of the EUA (European Union Allowance) price. As endogenous variables, five variables are considered for the analysis, including prices of crude oil, natural gas, electricity and coal in addition to carbon price. Data period is Phase 2 period (April 21, 2008 to March 31, 2010) to avoid the EUA price distortion of Phase 1 period (2005~2007). Further, the monthly data including the economic variables as endogenous variables are analyzed.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.105-112
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• 2014

The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between the degree of business diversification of a construction company and two of the indicators that represent financial stability, namely, a current ratio and a debt ratio, in order to draw policy implications. The current ratio and the debt ratio were used as variables that represent financial stability of a construction company. Berry-Herfindahl Index was used to measure the degree of business portfolio diversification of a construction company. For the analysis, quarterly time series data were retrieved from the financial information disclosure system of Korea's Financial Supervisory Service for the period between the first quarter of 2001 and the third quarter of 2013. The analysis results showed that a higher current ratio and a debt ratio led to a greater extent of business diversification. A higher level of business diversification led to a higher current ratio and a lower debt ratio. It was also shown that the impact of business diversification on the current ratio and the debt ratio outweighed the impact of changes in the current ratio and the debt ratio on business diversification. Meanwhile, an increase in the level of business diversification showed a quite positive effect as it raised the current ratio and lowered the debt ratio of a construction company. These findings suggest that diversification of business portfolio is essential for construction companies to strengthen their financial stability.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.159-174
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• 2017

The long-term imbalances between supply and demand in office market can weaken urban growth since excessive supply of offices led to office market instability and excessive demand of offices weakens growth of urban industry. Recently, there have been a lot of new large-scale supplies, which increased volatility in Seoul office market. Nevertheless, new supply of Seoul office has not been fully examined. Given this, the focus of this article was on confirming the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul. In examining those influences, another focus was on their relative influences over time. For these purposes, we analyzed quarterly data of Seoul office market between 2003 and 2015 using a vector error correction model (VECM). As a result, in terms of the influences on the current new supply, the impact of supply before the first quarter was negative, while that of office employment before the first quarter was positive. Also, that of interest rate before the second quarter was positive, while those of cap rate before the first quarter and cap rate before the second quarter were negative. Based on the findings, it is suggested that prediction models on Seoul offices need to be developed considering the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.73-79
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• 2013

Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.213-237
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• 2007

Discussions on regionalization of the world crude oil markets have provided important implications for the establishment of national energy policies. In particular, due to arbitrage trading, if these markets are regionalized, Korea who imports approximately 80% of the annual oil consumption from a single region may be faced with a crucial problem. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed regionalization of the world crude oil markets using causality analysis as well as cointegration method to consider temporal relationship and time lags. To analyze regionalization, we chose Dubai price for the Middle East market, Brent for the European, WTI for the U.S., and Tapis for the East Asian. For the case that long-run equilibrium existed between market prices, we used vector error correction model to analyze causal relationship, and for the case that equilibrium did not exist, we used Hsiao (1981)'s framework that can consider asymmetric time lags in the model for causality analysis. By the results of cointegration analysis, there did not exist long-run equilibrium among Dubai price and the other prices. However, we found the causal relationship among Dubai price and the other prices with one to four weeks time lags. Therefore, in effect, we could conclude that the world crude oil markets are unified supporting Adelman (1984)'s hypothesis.